Investing: Think about what's going right....
I'm off for a few days, to celebrate my niece's high school graduation with the family. I want to leave you with an interesting thought. And I'd like to hear your reaction.
James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which is a unit of Wells Fargo, is one of those feet-on-the-ground kind of people. He lives in the same reality I do, not some strange stratosphere that the investment community thinks makes sense. And he doodles all over his reports, a sign of ideas breaking out all over.
He’s bullish right now. He doesn’t have a dim view at all of the situation facing investors precisely because of two things. One is, everyone seems pessimistic. And the other, that pessimism doesn’t match the reality, in his opinion.
“For most people, their biggest asset is their job. And 95 percent of the people who want a job have a job. Inflation is close to the lowest in 40 years. Stocks are within 9 percent of their all-time highs. Commodities are at all-time highs...” he said, ticking off his list.
South Florida inflation, true, is higher than the norm. But his point is that it’s not the inflation of the 70s or 80s, which was double-digits.
If in the second half of this year the economic stimulus rebates kick in to make consumers feel better, if lower rates from the Fed work their way through the system and make borrowers feel better, if the Fed’s moves to shore up investment banks make the financial system feel better, it could call fall into place.
That's the way he sees it.
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