They could be wrong, but the National Association of Business Economists' May Outlook, released today, says this is one short recession or downturn that we're in.

They also predict that we'll go through the downturn without actually recording a decline in the nation's Gross Domestic Product. Pretty neat trick. Typically, a recession is defined as six straight months of decline in GDP.

The group says the downturn should be ending either in the second or third quarter of this year. That's September at the latest.

Why? Because the credit crisis is ending. Because the Fed's actions to shore up the financial system are doing just that.

The troubling part of the monthly survey, as I see it: One out of five of these economists don't expect we're going to get a break from serious inflation this year or next.

What do you think?