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Long-term investors, it pays to wait out the storm


If the current markets have convinced you that you're not really a long-term investor -- and by that I mean five years or more -- and you want out, I have a word for you.

Wait. Don't sell at the bottom.

But how long?

If past financial crises are any guide, data from Morningstar shows that in recent fits of market panic, it pays to wait three to five years after the crisis. Because by then you'll be ahead.

The point is taken form Morningstar's look at stock and bond markets in the wake of the October 1987 stock market crash, the August 1989 savings and loan crisis, the September 1998 bailout of Long Term Capital Management, the March 2000 dot-com crash and the September 2001 terrorist attacks.

In three out of five panics, if you'd held on to an all-stock portfolio for five years, you would have been substantially better off than if you had sold at the low point.

Five years after the '87 crash, the stock portfolio would have a 98.6 total return; after the S&L crisis, 58 percent return; and after the terrorist attacks, a 40.1 percent return. Long Term Capital's five-year record was up only 5.1 percent and after the dot-com crash, you would have been down 14.8 percent.

Can't hold on for five? The three year-record is good, too, in three out of five and OK in the fourth. Even a year helps stocks get back to even and off the bottom in most cases.

Six months, though, won't do it. Three times out of five, stocks were still down.

Categories: Wall Street (25)
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Comments

In her article in Sundays Sun-Sentinel, Ms. Brackey says in 3 out of 5 cases, you were better off holding for 5 years after past crises. Later,in the same articl,she states that after holding off 5 years you were better off in 4 out of 5 cases. Which is it Ms. Brackey?


In her article in Sundays Sun-Sentinel, Ms. Brackey says in 3 out of 5 cases, you were better off holding for 5 years after past crises. Later,in the same articl,she states that after holding off 5 years you were better off in 4 out of 5 cases. Which is it Ms. Brackey?


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About the author
You've got the job of managing your money. No one in school taught you how. But you and I, we can teach each other, how to handle it, how to save for retirement, how to make money last, how to educate the kids, how to make a budget work. The conversations I have with my readers are fun. Money's important, but discussing it does not have to be boring.

Harriet Johnson Brackey Harriet Johnson Brackey, the personal finance columnist for the Sun Sentinel, is an award-winning business reporter. Her columns for 2008 were named "The Best in the Business," a national award chosen by her colleagues at the Society of American Business Editors and Writers.

Brackey has worked at Business Week magazine and at USA TODAY, where she was a founder and part of the original staff of the Money section at the country's first national newspaper. After nearly 11 years there - spent covering the 1980s bull market, the insider trading scandals, the 1987 crash - Brackey left Washington, D.C., and came to The Miami Herald. She spent the next decade writing a column about personal finance that chronicled the stock market's Internet boom and bust, as well as the popular Money Makeover features.

Brackey also has done commentaries for Marketplace Money, which airs on National Public Radio and The Nightly Business Report which is broadcast on more than 250 PBS television stations nationwide. She also has been a radio guest on WLRN’s Miami Herald News.
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