Consumer confidence takes a surprising jump
Florida consumer confidence in September reached the highest point since December 2007.
The statewide measure went in the opposite direction of the national consumer confidence index, which decreased slightly from August.
Florida’s consumer confidence index made an unexpected jump three points to 74, following a four-point rise in August.
“I think Florida consumers are buying into the argument that the worst of the recession is over and we have avoided a complete meltdown,” said Chris McCarty, survey director at the University of Florida Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
But the picture isn’t completely upbeat. One of the five components measured was flat. Florida consumers perceptions of their personal finances today compared to a year ago is at a reading of 44, just five points higher than the all-time low which was reached in December of 2008.
“That’s a good indicator of where people really are,” McCarty said. “I think people are saying it’s a great time to buy things if you’ve got the money, which they don’t.”
Consumers are balancing the positives of an improving stock market, housing limping toward recovery and cheaper gas with one big negative: Florida’s high 10.7 percent unemployment rate.
“It’s hard to shrug off unemployment at these levels,” said Economist Sean Snaith, director Institute for Economic Competitiveness at the University of Central Florida. And even worse, he said, is that he expects unemployment to peak statewide at about 11 percent and to stay at 10 percent or higher for all of next year before it starts going down.
That long period of high unemployment “could take the wind out of any consumer sentiment or spending on behalf of consumers,” he said.
Economists watch consumer confidence closely, as an indication of consumer spending plans.
Nationwide, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence index decreased slightly in September. The index is now at 53.1, down from 54.5 in August and below the year-ago reading of 61.4
“While not as pessimistic as earlier this year, consumers remain quite apprehensive about the short-term outlook and their incomes,” said Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s Consumer Research Center. “With the holiday season quickly approaching, this is not very encouraging news.”
Harriet Johnson Brackey, the personal finance columnist for the Sun Sentinel, is an award-winning business reporter. Her columns for 2008 were named "The Best in the Business," a national award chosen by her colleagues at the Society of American Business Editors and Writers.
Comments
Hey, we may be feeling more optimistic about stuff in general, but I've expanded my job search into adjacent states -- and we're going to be "outa-here"...
Central Florida still has no significant tech-job-community openings. And my wife is understandably stressing about increases in "fees" and expenses -- so I have to do whatever it takes, which at this point appears to include a geographic solution. Even worse, given the housing market, I'm likely to have to get an apartment somewhere while my family stays until we can sell our home. Not an attractive option, because that sets a lower threshold for "I have to be making more than X amount" otherwise it's costing more than I'm making... Ah, well...
Posted by: Ger-ron-im-o_ver | October 1, 2009 4:43 PM
must be those ten people who still have jobs---
then again those who still have jobs are being taxed to death so even they have no money---
Posted by: gotideas | October 2, 2009 8:22 AM
I think that the 1st quarter is going to be really hard on businesses because a lot of them depend on the Holiday season and this year it will be really tough for so many businesses. Consumers are more worried about putting food on the table this year than spending anything else. Yes people will be put back to work during the Holiday season and that is all great and everything, but that is only for a couple months. What happens after the first of the year when they get laid off again? Do they get unemployment again? This is what will happen... The unemployed number of people will slow down Nov. and Dec, but then in Jan it will pick back up because of lay-Offs and the numbers will be off because many will not be able to collect unemployment. So when economists say that consumer confidence has slowed unexpectedly. Well everyone knows that it has slowed. I live here in Orlando and it is very scary to see how many businesses have closed and how many are on the verge of closing. It is a domino effect all over the nation.
1. The housing market started to slow and people got laid off.
2. People that got laid off weren’t buying meals at restaurants, tools, supplies etc.
3. The Businesses they depended on those consumers; laid off their employees.
4. Those People were not buying as many clothes, food and other things for the family because of being unemployed.
5. So then those businesses had to close, lay off or could not afford the rent of the building.
6. It just keeps on a cycle till people are put back to work, feel confident that they will not get laid off and then you will see people spending money again. Till then a lot of people are just saving what they can in these difficult times
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