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Florida home prices, from top to bottom

Here's the prediction for the average home price in Florida, during the boom and beyond, from Moody's Analytics. It'll get any homeowner's heart pounding.

Moody Analytics is forecasting an astounding drop, from peak to trough, that is not yet over. That’s from the height of the real estate boom to the bottom, which is still six months away.

For Florida, home prices will fall 52.4 percent from the second quarter of 2006 through the second quarter of 2012. The drubbing won't be over until next summer.

In the U.S., the peak-to-trough ride is a little shorter and somewhat less rough. Moody's Analytics says it will be a 33.75 percent drop from the first quarter of 2006 (the nation peaked earlier than Florida) to the second quarter of 2012.

Home prices nationwide had never, since the Great Depression, fallen on a year-over-year basis.

Now, we’re heading into the sixth year of falling prices.

Categories: Economy (42)
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Thats why real estate is a great investment!

Paul and Julie are you LISTENING ?

I wonder if anyone else picked up on the fact that this article states "we are heading into the sixth year of declines" and that "The drubbing won't be over until next summer."

Did someone fail to tell the author that next year is 2011, NOT 2012?

Places like Port Saint Lucie will get the most of the decline thus causing the average statewide to appear to be lower.

Back in 2006, I remember posting (along with a few others) on the old Topix boards that prices were going to drop 40%. I guess we actually underestimated the drop.

All the Realtors and real estate cheerleaders used to mock us endlessly. They would chant off their standard rebuttals. Do you remember some of them?

- Real estate never loses value
- They're not building any more land
- South Florida is different and all real estate is local
- It's a new paradigm
- Buy now or be priced out forever

My favorite poster of the time was a guy who went by username "Millionaire." He was a guy who bought a SFH in Plantation in late 2005. He would argue endlessly that the housing bubble would never deflate. I wonder if he's been foreclosed upon by now.

Hmmm..that number is already old house(thank God I sold and left the state) is worth over 50% less than what I sold it of 2010. By the time the bank gets it back and re-sells it..I would expect the loss to be aound 60-70%!
(Ok..all the haters start with me SINCE I still like to read the SS to keep my mother who is RETIRED in SFL..informed!...not my fault I got out and other didn't)

The 79 year old man whose home is worth $12,500.00, but the predatory mortgage is almost $200,000.00, and Citimortgage refuses to modify or let him purchase the home at fair market value, but would rather foreclose and evict him and collect the full mortgage value from Fannie Mae.

Hearing on: Foreclosed Justice: Causes and Effects of the Foreclosure Crisis — Part II

Wednesday 12/15/2010 - 10:00 a.m.

Well thanks for stating the obvious.

Wrong,There going to drop by 70% in 2013 all over valued STICKS AND STONE,clay huts

Prices here in Fort Myers, Cape Coral, Lehigh Acres are off 80% from what they were in 2005. Homes that sold for $200K are now selling for $40K

What's making prices fall faster?...the economy or the news continuing to tell everyone that prices will be falling in the future (scaring people to purchase). I'd like to ask the author...How does this article actually help the economy/housing market?..these articles educate the human public that prices will continue to decline, thus instilling in people not to buy a house, which brings less demand, which only HELPS prices decline even further...Less Demand = More Supply = Decline in prices. I hope when R/E prices decline more & more homeowners are underwater & the economy WILL get worse...then people have less money to subscribe to newspapers-go out to eat-travel, etc, then more newspapers go out of business!!...your bio mentions you've been in "personal finance" since 1980's..have you heard of "trickle down effect"??? To the author: Please explain to the readers how this article actually helps the economy improve?? Isn't there anything positive to write about that helps the economy?

We have not seen anything yet. Prices are already 60-70 percent off in 2006 in South Florida, particularly Palm Beach and Broward. We have another 20 percent to go. Homes will be selling for 20 percent of 2006 prices. FACT! Anyone who bought a year or two ago are already 30 percent under water in Palm Beach and Broward. Real estate rule number one - never try to catch a falling knief, you will cut yourself financially. 2012-2013 would be the perfect time to buy, UNLESS you can have it NOW for half its value today.

Commercial property would be great investments to buy now for cash flow. Small apartment complexes 1 - 30 Units.

I think the best lesson from the real estate bubble (and every other market rise/fall) is that if you want to participate, you have to lead the crowd not follow it. This is true when the market is about to rise, as it is when it's about to drop. Right now there's an enormous amount of fear, which bodes well for the market over the next few years. If you're an speculator I don't have advice for you, but for true investors looking for income and cash flow, right now the opportunities are just great, and if you're a standard homeowner who plans to stay in the home for a few years, the current low prices and low rates make it almost silly to pay rent. Trying to exactly time the market is a fool's game. Remember the media report the facts that already happened. They don't forecast, and if trust the market analysts, go back and see who was bearish at the market's top in 2005. Almost no one. The reverse may be happening now.

Property investment is the best option then any other, can be a huge investment, its done only when we have big money in hand. That's a good asset for a family.

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Please explain to the readers how this article actually helps the economy improve?? Isn't there anything positive to write about that helps the economy?

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Foreclosures are typically listed for below the market value, which is already much lower than the investor-induced bubble-peak. Each new foreclosure closed sale brings the market values down, which leads the next foreclosure to be listed even lower. There is a HUGH inventory of foreclosures down here.
Don't listen to the other Realtors who have an obvious conflict of interest in trying to pump up the market. If you don't need to buy a house now, wait. Wait until the shadow inventory of foreclosed homes starts to decrease. It will decrease when the unemployment rate comes down, when a regular 3/2 middle class home is priced so that the median income for a family of four ($58,100 in Broward) can afford them

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About the author
You've got the job of managing your money. No one in school taught you how. But you and I, we can teach each other, how to handle it, how to save for retirement, how to make money last, how to educate the kids, how to make a budget work. The conversations I have with my readers are fun. Money's important, but discussing it does not have to be boring.

Harriet Johnson Brackey Harriet Johnson Brackey, the personal finance columnist for the Sun Sentinel, is an award-winning business reporter. Her columns for 2008 were named "The Best in the Business," a national award chosen by her colleagues at the Society of American Business Editors and Writers.

Brackey has worked at Business Week magazine and at USA TODAY, where she was a founder and part of the original staff of the Money section at the country's first national newspaper. After nearly 11 years there - spent covering the 1980s bull market, the insider trading scandals, the 1987 crash - Brackey left Washington, D.C., and came to The Miami Herald. She spent the next decade writing a column about personal finance that chronicled the stock market's Internet boom and bust, as well as the popular Money Makeover features.

Brackey also has done commentaries for Marketplace Money, which airs on National Public Radio and The Nightly Business Report which is broadcast on more than 250 PBS television stations nationwide. She also has been a radio guest on WLRN’s Miami Herald News.
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