For retailers, good news arrived Tuesday in the form of continued strong consumer confidence in Florida and nationwide. Those indicators may lead to solid gains in sales during the holiday season.

Florida’s consumer confidence index , which jumped in October, held on to most of that gain in November, according to the University of Florida.

The index dipped one point to 72 in November.

“This suggests that the big increase in October was not an anomaly, but a return to a higher level of confidence, particularly among Florida’s seniors,” said Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
He predicts that holiday retail sales will be stronger than last year.

Nationwide, the Conference Board’s index of consumer confidence jumped to the highest point in five months.

That index rose to 54.1 in November, up from 49.9 in October. That was the highest point since June, when the index was at 54.3.

The national consumer confidence index released today is up a little, at 50.2, but it really has barely budged since October last year, when it was at 48.7. The report, from the Conference Board, was quite different from Florida Consumer confidence index.

The index of Florida consumer confidence jumped six points to 74, the highest level in six months. The unexpected increase, according to Chris McCarty, director of research for the survey conducted by the University of Florida, attributed it to historically low interest rates, bargain prices on condos and the recent halt to foreclosures by some of the country’s largest lenders.

But the mood may not last. McCarty suggested that as the holiday season approaches, confidence may fall if gas and food prices continue rising.

Florida's economy may be teetering on the brink of recovery, but consumers don’t seem to be feeling it.

Florida consumers have the worst outlook on what's ahead for their personal finances in 25 years, according to a survey released Tuesday.

That dismal report is part of the state's monthly consumer confidence index for July. Overall, Floridians’ consumer confidence declined as well, to its lowest point in 16 months, as oil from the Deepwater Horizon well was flowing into the Gulf of Mexico for most of the month. The nationwide consumer confidence index also fell.

In July, the index for Floridians’ outlook on their own personal finances one year from now reached the lowest point ever, said the University of Florida’s Chris McCarty, director of the Survey Research Center in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research. The center began measuring perceptions of personal finances in February 1985. The figure in July was at 78.

McCarty said the pessimism about personal finances grew largely because of responses from those who are age 60 and older. The personal finance outlook didn't change in July for those who are younger.

“The value of a home and home equity are a big part of most people’s retirement nest egg and they’ve seen that wiped away,” said economist Sean Snaith of the University of Central Florida in Orlando. “Maybe the realization is now starting to weigh heavily on sentiment that this not going to rebound anytime soon?”

Overall, all Floridians are growing more glum in their outlook.

The overall index of Florida consumer confidence — which includes personal finances as well as four other components — fell two points to 65 in July, the lowest rating in 16 months. The last time the figure was at 65 was in March 2009.

“Although Florida was by no means recovered from the recession, there were signs that the economy was turning around prior to the oil spill,” McCarty said.

He pointed to a stabilization in the median home price in Florida, an uptick in some sectors of the state’s employment including leisure and hospitality, and a gain in Florida's sales tax revenues in May compared to last year. “Nothing really had changed for the worse,” he said.

The Gulf oil spill’s impact may be weighing on consumers’ minds, McCarty said. Analysts are still trying to figure out the eventual impact on employment, spending and tourism in Florida.

Last month, before the well was capped, Snaith predicted that in the worst case, the spill could put almost 195,000 Floridians out of work and reduce spending in Florida by $10.9 billion. On Tuesday, Snaith said he doesn’t expect that worst-case scenario to become reality, but he’s still waiting on data from this summer before he revises the prediction.

Nationwide, the Conference Board's index of consumer confidence also declined. It fell by 3.9 percentage points to 50.4.

“Given consumers’ heightened level of anxiety, along with their pessimistic income outlook and lackluster job growth, retailers are very likely to face a challenging back-to-school season,” said the Conference Board's Lynn Franco in a statement.

Take away the tax breaks and Florida's attitude gets glum.

The University of Florida reports that Florida’s index of consumer confidence plummeted seven points to 71 in May after the first-time homebuyers tax credit and rebates for energy-efficient appliances ended.

“We expected a big decline in consumer confidence as these two major stimulus programs ran out,” said Chris McCarty, survey director at UF's Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

The index was at 78 in April, the highest point so far this year. The record low as 59 in June, 2008.

McCarty doesn't expect consumer confidence to head upward over the summer. In fact, he said it's possible consumers' attitude could get worse.

“We expect Florida’s consumer confidence to remain in the low 70s for the next several months, unless the effects of the oil spill show a direct effect on Florida, the stock market continues to decline or Florida has a bad hurricane season, in which case it would fall lower,” he said.

Florida's consumer confidence figure surged to the highest point in two and a half years, the University of Florida reported this morning.

Looks like those appliance rebates and the homebuyers tax credits made us feel pretty good about the economy and our finances, says survey director Chris McCarty.

The April reading of 77 was the highest since October 2007, when it was 70.

“Florida’s consumers have been full of surprises the past several months,” McCarty said. “Much like the reading for January, this rise in confidence was completely unexpected. Last month Florida broke its all time record for unemployment at 12.3 percent. Yet Floridians are far more optimistic this month than last."

Florida’s consumer confidence unexpectedly rose in January five points to 74, the highest point in more than two years, according to a University of Florida survey.

“The sharp rise was somewhat of a surprise,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. “In the past we have seen similar jumps in the January index, perhaps in response to the financial stress associated with the holidays and the economic turbulence of the past year.”

The index measures consumers' view of finances and the economy. The largest increase in January is in the perception of whether this is a good time to buy big-ticket consumer items. That portion rose eight points to 83. Perceptions of people's personal finances also increased strongly.

The preliminary index reading was the highest since December 2007. McCarty said he expects the figure to be revised downward when a full month’s worth of data is included.

Last year, the index ranged from a low of 62 in February to a high of 72, in both September and October.

However, McCarty said he expects the January figure to fall in the coming months, as consumers absorb more bad news about high unemployment.

Consumer confidence is closely watched as an indicator of the direction of consumer spending, which accounts for about 70 percent of all economic activity.

-Harriet Johnson Brackey

Amidst rising unemployment, Florida’s consumer confidence index fell three percentage points to 69 in November.

“There are reasons for growing pessimism, particularly lingering employment issues that are expected to get worse over the next several months,” said Chris McCarty, survey director of
UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

He pointed to the state’s 11.2 percent unemployment rate, the highest in 34 years.

The index, which measures consumers’ perceptions of the economy and their finances today and over the long run, showed a sharp decline in expectations for the next five years.

“Florida consumers may be wondering whether the effects of this downturn will last longer than usual, or perhaps some aspects of this downturn are permanent,” McCarty said.

Floridians’ rising pessimism stands in contrast to the rest of the nation.

The Conference Board, a New York research organization, reported that its nationwide index of consumer confidence rose in November to 49.5 from 48.7

Lynn Franco, director of the Conference Board’s research center, said consumers nationwide seem to be thinking that things won’t get much worse.

But she cautioned, “Income expectations remain very pessimistic and consumers are entering the holiday season in a very frugal mood.”