I am liking this stock market right now.

On Thursday, we had the report that consumer borrowing declined by the largest amount in 65 years.

Retailers showed their numbers and it was an awful Christmas.

All that swirling around, with an ominous air of anticipation for the jobless report to come out today.

And what? The market didn’t blink. Stocks are level. Haven't changed much at all since 2008.

That mattered because Thursday marked the end of the first five trading days of the year, which some people think is a sign of what the market will do this month and that, in turn, is often an indicator of what will happen this year.

I don’t really believe in those signs, but they’re fun to watch.

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Florida's mortgage market, along with some help from California's equally troubled housing situation, has brought Washington Mutual down. Apparently, about two weeks ago, WaMu's weakned position became frightening to depositors, who began taking out their money. And that lead to its end.

WaMu was one of the most active mortgage lenders in Florida, before it began cutting back those operations. And it was a substantial employer.

By deposits, Washington Mutual is the fifth largest banking institution on Florida. It has $11.9 billion in deposits and it has 259 offices here, according to FDIC statistics.

The one thing that I have seen in past bank failures or transitions is that once the FDIC steps in, things run smoothly. I would expect very little disruption to depsitors whose funds are below the $100,000 FDIC insurance limit on most accounts. The figure is higher for retirement accounts and certain trusts.

And it's important to not classify all banks as troubled. Strong institutions, who sidestepped the risky lending practices of the last two years, will remain and will benefit from this financial meltdown.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. is absorbing WaMu, paying $1.9 billion for its assets.

This failure is almost ten times larger than the failure of IndyMac Bank. WaMu had $307 billion in assets compared to IndyMac's $32 billion.

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You might think this is a downcast statement, but at this point, I don't. If stocks can just make it through the year in any sort of stable position, that would be good.

Standard & Poors’ Investment Policy Committee now thinks the Standard & Poors 500 will advance a bit more than 1 percent this year. In view of rising oil prices and inflation, the committee slashed its previous expectation, which was for a 6 percent annual gain.

The S&P 500 closed at just above 1468 in 2007. Previously, S&P analysts had predicted it would finish 2008 at 1560. Now, they’re settling for a target of 1490.

Which would mean, after all the downs we’ve had this year, we’ll end up about even.

I don’t put much faith in stock market price targets. It's the direction and the strength that’s important to note when looking at such forecasts. Direction is good, strength is weak.

According to The Outlook, an S&P publication, the expectation for earnings this year has also been slashed. The analysts there expect an 8 percent increase in earnings, down from a 16 percent gain expected as the year began.

On a positive note: No shrinkage in the economy. S&P is looking for some growth in Gross Domestic Product throughout this year.

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It was funny Tuesday. A few hundred certified financial planners had taken time off to come to the Hyatt Regency Bonaventure in Weston for a retreat.

The session I found funny had top money manager Ron Muhlenkamp facing off with well-regarded certified financial planner Harold Evensky, from Coral Gables firm Evensky & Katz, and David Yeske, a San Francisco CFP whose firm is Yeske Buie.

In the simplest terms, Muhlenkamp thinks he can pick outstanding companies and beat the market. Yeske uses many studies to show that no one beats the market for long and so he favors index investments. Evensky’s in the middle, putting the bulk of his clients’ money into an index-like investment, yet playing around the edges with active stock or bond picking, hoping to goose up the overall return of the portfolio.

Each position has its strong points. After a couple of hours of debate, it was clear no one was convincing anyone to change position. But it was amusing. Because the debate never gets resolved. Everyone knew that from the start.

I have to wonder about the clients of all those many advisers at the retreat. How do they pick an investment style? How do they decide who to trust? A few powerpoints, and now you decide?

It’s not a good system. Confusion is everywhere.

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I'm off for a few days, to celebrate my niece's high school graduation with the family. I want to leave you with an interesting thought. And I'd like to hear your reaction.

James Paulsen, chief investment strategist at Wells Capital Management, which is a unit of Wells Fargo, is one of those feet-on-the-ground kind of people. He lives in the same reality I do, not some strange stratosphere that the investment community thinks makes sense. And he doodles all over his reports, a sign of ideas breaking out all over.

He’s bullish right now. He doesn’t have a dim view at all of the situation facing investors precisely because of two things. One is, everyone seems pessimistic. And the other, that pessimism doesn’t match the reality, in his opinion.

“For most people, their biggest asset is their job. And 95 percent of the people who want a job have a job. Inflation is close to the lowest in 40 years. Stocks are within 9 percent of their all-time highs. Commodities are at all-time highs...” he said, ticking off his list.

South Florida inflation, true, is higher than the norm. But his point is that it’s not the inflation of the 70s or 80s, which was double-digits.

If in the second half of this year the economic stimulus rebates kick in to make consumers feel better, if lower rates from the Fed work their way through the system and make borrowers feel better, if the Fed’s moves to shore up investment banks make the financial system feel better, it could call fall into place.

That's the way he sees it.

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The message just keeps coming.

The rest of the world, especially the developing world, is where the best-performing investments can be found.

The world's best stock in 2007 was Inner Mongolia Yitai Coal Co. Ltd. It's a Chinese stock that produced a more than 1,017 percent return for its investors.

Inner Mongolia?

Not a single U.S. stock was in the top ten last year. Of the 100 best stocks around the globe, six were U.S. companies. Otherwise, it was all China, India and Hong Kong that produced the winners.

Russell Investment Group, which publishes global market indexes, this week said the U.S. share of the world’s investments has shrunk some more. In 1999, U.S. stocks were 59 percent of the Russell Global Index. Today, they are 42 percent.

U.S. stocks have grown in value in that period. Stocks from the rest of the world have too, but more.

Which brings me to the number of the day: The non-U.S. companies in Russell’s Global Index grew in market value from $8.7 trillion in 1999 to $21.6 trillion last June. By comparison, the U.S. stocks grew in value from $12.6 trillion to $16.8 trillion.

As you manage your investments, make sure you have a stake beyond the U.S. We can debate how much and whether emerging markets have any fizzle left and whether the developing non-U.S. world is where you want to be. The point is to be broad in your thinking. That’s the starting point.

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When everyone's afraid, when everyone's selling, someone isn't. Someone's buying.

Which leads me to wonder, what investments benefit from $4-a-gallon gasoline? And $139-a-barrel oil?

I have a few unusual answers. More than simply buy Exxon Mobil or buy commodities. I'll share my ideas in a future post.

For now, I'm wondering what your ideas might be. Where could you put your money to profit from pricey gas?

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I found a fun quiz, courtesy of Finra.

Finra is the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. It looks over the shoulders of brokers and tries to keep them in line, along with other regulators at states and at the Securities and Exchange Commission.

The quiz is the Scam Meter. I took it and my results were Four Red Flags waving at me that the investment might be a fraud. All I had to do was to answer a few questions about who was selling it and what kind of promises were made.

There are other fun things going on at Finra’s site, www.saveandinvest.org. You’ll find Finra alerts there – these are useful bulletins that let you know which investments you should make you wary. There’s discussion of the psychology used in selling and how you can fight against it. There’s even an audio clip of some of the sales pitches for bad investments.

Think you won’t fall for investment fraud?

A Finra-funded research report says college-educated, above-average income and financially sophisticated people are prime targets for investment fraud. That might mean you.

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How did your investments do in the first quarter? Not so good?

Sorry, you're not special.

According to Lipper, a mutual fund tracking firm that is a unit of Reuters, the average U.S. diversified stock fund lost 10.11 percent in the first quarter. World stock funds, including those that invest overseas and those that invest domestically and internationally, lost 9.6 percent.

You could have lost even more money if you were in a China fund (down 21.24 percent) or a small value stock fund (down 14.9 percent).

In fact, one of the few ways in which mutual fund investors made any money at all in the first three months was to bet against stocks. Funds devoted to shorting stocks, which gain when stocks decline, rose 12 percent.

Hint: When was it you heard China funds were hot, hot hot? That's so 2007.

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