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March Madness and using the efficiency margin

There's no better time to be in Las Vegas than the first weekend of March Madness with 48 college basketball games (not including play-in games) over four days.

My buddies and I have been making our annual trip for the past few years, only this time what happens in Vegas won't necessarily stay in Vegas -- I'll be blogging about everything from basketball bets to what's happening on the poker, blackjack and craps tables, and some things in between.

I'll begin blogging from the desert on Thursday, but like so many others I started poring over my bracket within minutes of the field of 65 being announced. I haven't studied the lines on the games yet, but I've already spent a couple hours going through Basketball Prospectus' efficiency margin. That is, a team's pace (possessions per 40 minutes) and its points per possession minus its opponents' points per possession. Last year, it pegged 75 percent of the final eight.

Of course it doesn't factor in what the line of the game is, but it does give you some good ideas about a team. For instance, Miami and Oklahoma both fall into the negative category with -.01 and -.02 EMs, respectively. Translation: Both teams were outscored by their opponents during conference play this season. That doesn't bode well for either since teams that fell into this category the last two years were a combined 1-4 in the tournament. That's where EM can help you stay away from potential pitfalls.

As Basketball Prospectus author John Gasaway points out, Syracuse was outscored by its Big East opponents in the 2005-06 season but earned a lofty No. 5 seed as conference tourney champion -- they were promptly bounced by No. 12 seed Texas A&M in the first round. In other words, a high seed may not mean much if a team has a negative EM.

Some teams you should keep an eye on, no matter the line: Kansas and Wisconsin. They were the top two teams in the country in EM this year with UCLA right behind them. Surprisingly, top-seeded North Carolina was only sixth-best in EM.

To read more about EM, click here.

I'll be back later this week to share what I think are the best bets of the first round, along with some strategies for Vegas this time of year (both in and out of the casino). In the meantime, send me your feedback on what teams and games you do or don't like, plus what some of your other favorite bets or plays are by emailing me at bwacker@sun-sentinel.com.

To print your own bracket, click here.

-- Brian Wacker, Sun-Sentinel.com

POSTED IN: Strategy (6)

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Maybe you've made the right play, maybe you haven't. Your heart speeds up, your stomach rumbles.

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NICK SORTAL began playing 3-card "gut" and "Indian poker" on high school band trips, early training for his... < More >
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