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Powerball: How the odds are in your favor
With the Powerball jackpot zooming past $222 million, you could argue the numbers are actually now on your side as we head into Wednesday's 10:59 p.m. drawing.
That's pretty hard to say in a game that carries a 1-in-195 million chance of winning.
Look at it this way: If you could buy up every possible Powerball combination of the 59 white balls and 39 red balls, it would cost $195 million. But you'd be guaranteed of winning the jackpot.
Bet $195 million to make $222 million. Gamblers call it an overlay.
Of course, two other factors come into play that stop people (OK, the very rich) from doing that: 1.) You get taxed and 2.) Someone else might hit the jackpot, too, and you'd have to split that $222 million -- resulting in a net loss for you. (Personally, I play high numbers, over 31, so I won't have to split with the people who play birthdays.)
Best advice? Buy one ticket, or maybe two.
WPLG-Ch. 10 airs the winning numbers in the first 10 minutes or so of its newscast.
Keeping this train going further: You can eventually deduct all your losing tickets (the $194,999,999), meaning you'd be taxed on only the $27 million profit you'd make. But it would probably means some time with the IRS, a lot of time.
Also, punching out the 195 million tickets - the Lottery does them one by one -- means you should have started, oh, back in April.
"So it’s maybe an interesting exercise to think about, but really not possible in reality," says Todd Northrop, owner of Lottery Post, an online community of lottery enthusiasts, in response to my idea. A group in Virginia tried it a few years ago in their in-state game, but ran out of time. And that required only 10 million numbers to buy, he said. Still, they covered 80 percent of the numbers, and hit the big one, he said.
And keep in mind that the posted prize for the full amount is an annuity over a prolonged period. Your $195 million now would net you only $113 million immediately. The $222 million option is paid over 30 years.
NICK SORTAL began playing 3-card "gut" and "Indian poker" on high school band trips, early training for his...
Comments
"Best advice? Buy one ticket, or maybe two."
Uh, no, the obvious best advice is not to waste any money at all.
Posted by: Billy | May 26, 2009 12:11 PM
Best advice is fire moron who wrote "odds in your favor" headline. I used to call the lottery the "Florida State Stupidity Tax", but with powerball, it is now the "Collection of a bunch of States Stupidity Tax".
Posted by: Tom | May 26, 2009 12:34 PM
The odds have not changed
Posted by: Harry | May 26, 2009 2:29 PM
I agree the idea the odds have turned in the player's favor is utter nonsense.
However, buying two tickets does cut the odds in half.
The best places on the web for lottery information are http://www.lotterypost.com and http://www.lotto-logix.com
Posted by: Robert | May 26, 2009 5:40 PM
Lotterypost is the best place on the web to talk about the lottery and get some answers to questions you have. They also keep the political comments in the blog section where it belongs and away from the lottery topics. Todd runs a great site.
Posted by: frank | May 26, 2009 6:26 PM
As a self-acclaimed PHD in statistics, it is my advice that everyone refrain from playing at this time and wait for the next game.
Posted by: TJP | May 26, 2009 6:58 PM
I am not a jackpot fan but do well with pick 3. A great prediction site with awesome results is http://takeemtothebank.com
Posted by: Ja | May 26, 2009 10:38 PM
Until the lump sum amount is higher than the cost to cover all the combos then the odds are not in your favor. And even if/when that happens then you have the taxes and the issue of what if someone else hits. They should not be allowed to advertise the $222 million amount since it is over 30 years. That's like saying a job as a teacher pays $1.2 million....since it is $40k over 30 years. Yeah right.
Posted by: Reality | May 27, 2009 1:29 AM
Great comment by Reality.
Agreed on LotteryPost.
Posted by: Nick Sortal | May 27, 2009 7:18 AM
There are two types of combination generating:
1) In lexicographical order: All 195,249,054 Powerball combinations, from 1-2-3-4-5-1 to 54-55-56-57-58-39;
2)Random number generation: Some combinations will repeat.
Let's suppose the random generators of lottery commissions are fair (e.g. not set to eliminate highly paying combinations). If the generator randomly generates 195,249,054 Powerball combinations, then 63% of them will be unique and 37% will be repeats (duplication). The mathematics of that is strict and is known as Ion Saliu's Paradox of N Trials.
The case remarked here (Virginia lotto in the 1990's): A group of Australian investors (that's how they called themselves) actually bought a number of tickets equal to ALL possible combinations in VA lotto. They only "covered" 63% of all possible combinations. Luckily for them, they hit the jackpot. Their winning ticket was unique, however (nobody else played the same combination)!
There is more to this fact of lottery mathematics. The degree of certainty is higher when you play N combinations in 1 drawing, instead of 1 combination for N drawings. The advantage: 37%, based on Ion Saliu's Paradox.
http://saliu.com/theory-of-probability.html
Posted by: Parpaluck | June 2, 2009 2:00 PM