More evidence the state is leaning toward open gambling in Florida is reported today by Bob Rathgeber of the Fort Myers News-Press.

Several legislators say the compact is dead, and that having counties vote on what they want is the way to go.

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I take back anything bad I said about Key West: A state legislator there says he's drafting legislation to get the pari-mutuel portion of the compact rolling.

St. Pete Times' Shannon Colavecchio beat me to it, but here it is.

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Gov. Crist is at the Hard Rock today:

MEDIA ADVISORY

Governor Charlie Crist will attend the United South & Eastern Tribes’ 2009 Annual Board of Directors Meeting today, Monday, October 26, 2009. This year’s meeting will celebrate the non-profit, inter-tribal organization’s 40th anniversary.

Following this meeting, Governor Crist will be available to the media.

OK, I'm going. E-mail your question by 2 p.m. Thanks.

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Like slot players watching reels spin, South Florida casino executives are holding their breath.

Horse track and dog tracks are waiting for the state to lower a 50-percent tax rate on slots, worried about increased competition and adapting to a down economy.

Casinos operated by the Seminole Tribe of Florida are stuck waiting on an agreement with the state that spells out whether they can have blackjack and other table games -- because they'd like to build hotels at their Coconut Creek and Immokalee casinos.

And all are angling for the Florida state legislature to listen to their arguments as a gambling compact is being negotiated.

But at least all of them were in the same room Tuesday for the Florida Gaming Summit at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino in Hollywood.

Three horse track and dog track owners said they're losing money, and would be even if the economy hadn't tanked.

"If we were a stand-alone property, with no corporate structure, we wouldn't be here," Mardi Gras' Dan Adkins said. Gulfstream Casino & Racing and Isle Casino & Racing officials made similar comments.

"By any stretch, performance has been poor," said gambling industry analyst Adam Steinberg of Morgan Joseph and Co. For example, casinos operated by horse and dog tracks expected to make $350 to $500 per slot machine. The latest figure by the Division of Pari-Mutuel Wagering puts it a $124 per machine in September.

Steinberg said the projections were too high, because they couldn't compete with the Hard Rock.

"They knew coming in they were going against an 800-pound gorilla," he said.

Mardi Gras VP Dan Adkins suggested a lower tax could help the casinos work to develop tourism. The state will lower the slot tax to 35 percent, if the compact is approved. The legislature might discuss it at a special session in December.

"Florida is so primed for drawing outside dollars. It's what we need to be focused on," Adkins said. "If we could be a full casino [with blackjack and other games], people would take visiting us over, for example, Biloxi. Why not?"

Currently, more than 90 percent of his customers are locals, Adkins said, while New Orleans, for example, has about 65 percent locals and 35 percent tourists.

But analyst John Maxwell of Jefferies & Co. said: "It's going to be difficult to go beyond being a local casino. You don't have much capital to put in."

Adds Steinberg: "Florida gets a lot of tourism, but it's the wrong kind for gambling. It's families with kids." He noted that Disney, for example, would not take kindly to Florida being marketed as a gambling state.

Meanwhile Seminole gaming CEO James Allen said the Hollywood Hard Rock and the six other Florida casinos operated by the tribe would be hurt if parimutuels statewide added blackjack, as Adkins and others request.

The overall expansion of gaming stresses the market, Allen said, noting how more gambling in Pennyslvania has contributed to a free-fall in Atlantic City.

"The days people drive 2-3 hours to go to a casino are slowly diminishing," he said. Internet gambling also "is coming, and it's coming incredibly rapidly."

Allen said if the compact were approved giving the Seminoles exclusivity, Florida could receive $3 billion over 20 years from the tribe.

The parimutuels could produce $10 billion over the same period, said Isle of Capri Casinos CEO Virginia McDowell, launching the first of many grenades during a luncheon speech. The Isle in Pompano Beach is among her casinos.

"Despite participating in a process to design a legislative solution, the Tribe has now decided they still want more," she said. "The expansion of gambling on tribal land does little to benefit the citizens of Florida, as the tribe is not required to pay taxes. Not a dime."

Further complicating matters is the opening of Miami-Dade casinos. Flagler opened as the Magic City Casino last week and Calder Race Course, on the Broward-Dade line, will open in a couple of months.

"As it expands, are we just splitting more of a fixed pot?" Chris Jones of Telsey Advisory Group asked.

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With today being THE DAY for the state and the Seminole Tribe to get it together, your favorite gambling writer made an appearance on SouthFloridaLive.com and talked it up (gotta love the outfit!)

So, what you all think is going to happen?

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Now, if you read between the lines of Josh Hafenbrack's report from Tallahassee, there's hope for an agreement between the Seminoles and the state.

The parties met on Monday, trying to make the Aug. 31 deadline.

George Lemieux, Gov. Charlie Crist's former chief of staff who is helping lead the negotiations, said the two parties are "narrowing down the issues" and hope to have an agreement by Aug. 31, 13 days away.

But still, the Legislature, in a likely special session, would have to decide whether to accept the new terms.

Hafenbrack says:

One change will be to the so-called "exclusivity" provisions -- which ensure that the Seminoles are the only gambling operators with the rights to blackjack and slots outside South Florida. The Legislature would require the tribe to make payments to the state even if competitors get similar gambling games, as long as the tribe's revenue didn't experience a major drop. The tribe balked at that idea.

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Usually new state regulations kick in on July 1. Too bad that didn't happen with no-limit poker, the 35 percent slot tax and other breaks coming to the state's casinos.

While the Seminole Tribe weighs the compact proposed by the state, the horse tracks, dog tracks and jai-alai frontons cool their heels.

You couldn't blame them if they stormed Talllahassee and shouted HURRY UP!

Our Josh Hafenbrack details how and why we're on hold -- and its impact on local gambling.

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It's 21. No, it's 18.

Still up for debate.

Columnist Michael Mayo talks about gambling ages in Florida in his latest post on his blog.

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Our news columnist, Michael Mayo, gave his take after reading the 105-page compact, and as usual he thought of points I have not.

Not that they're all good ideas. He suggests swapping out Seminole Hollywood Classic blackjack for Immokalee.

Not going to happen. Southwest Florida legislators would then vote against the compact.

But he points out the door would still be open for blackjack at racinos, and he praises the Legislature for putting a small dent in the Seminole Tribe's sovereign nation status.

Your thoughts?

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I was at the Hard Rock's fifth anniversary party Monday morning, and will write up some details and comments about the casino's landmark in the next couple of hours.

Here's an update on the compact, the 500-pound gorilla in terms of gambling news stories:

Don’t look for the South Florida gambling scene to change any time soon, despite last week’s vote from the state Legislature: There’s still a tribal evaluation, another Florida Legislature vote and then some furniture to be moved.

Seminole Tribe CEO James Allen spelled out the tribe’s timeline Monday, after speaking at the fifth anniversary party of the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel & Casino.

The state’s gambling proposal, offered Friday, would give the Seminole Tribe exclusive rights to blackjack and other table games at four casinos: the Hollywood Hard Rock, the Tampa Hard Rock, Seminole Coconut Creek and the tribe’s 30-year-old casino in Hollywood. Currently, the tribe has blackjack at the two Hard Rocks and at its Immokalee casino near Naples.

Now the ball is in the tribe’s court, and Seminole leaders are working with Gov. Charlie Crist toward either full acceptance, rejection or a counterproposal by the Aug. 31 deadline the Legislature set.

“We’re optimistic we can meet and hopefully exceed that time frame,” Allen said, noting that he was pleased by the margins of approval. The Senate voted 31-9 and the House 82-35.

The state’s horse tracks, dog tracks and jai-alai frontons are also waiting for a completed compact. The portion that allows for no-limit poker and reduces taxes on slot machines at parimutuels from 50 percent to 35 percent doesn’t take effect until there’s a pact with the tribe, said House Rep. Bill Galvano, R-Bradenton, who helped negotiate the agreement.

The tribe's biggest sticking point: The state’s request to stop blackjack in Immokalee.

The tribe has hotels in two of the blackjack sites — Hollywood and Tampa — and plans are on the board to add a hotel in Coconut Creek. The tribe also has discussed a hotel in Immokalee, as well as a golf course, to the point that it has renderings on its compact web site.

“Our concept has been to create destinations – and jobs for Floridians – with our casinos, and frankly, Immokalee is an important facility,” Allen said. “But it’s also important not to look at a single line item but at the total compact.”

When Crist and the tribe agree on terms, the state votes again to ratify, either in a special session or in next year’s regular session. The tribe would need 60 to 90 days after it and the state ratify an agreement to rearrange casino space and train staff to add the table games, Allen said.

Over the next 15 years, the tribe would pay at least $150 million a year to the state, plus part of net gambling profits. The money would be funneled to the state’s Lottery trust fund, which is used to pay for school construction projects, Bright Futures scholarships and other education programs.

Tribe spokesman Gary Bitner said among the details in the 105-page document to evaluate is whether the income from blackjack would be enough to warrant paying the $150 million. The tribe may not make a further public statement until it meets with Crist, he said.

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The Fort Myers News-Press hustled out to the Seminole Casino Immokalee -- the casino that stands to lose the most if the current gambling agreement goes through.

They say they'll be fine, and the Tribe casts an ominous statement:

Gary Bitner, spokesman for the Seminole Tribe, said there was no reason for gamblers - who have been playing blackjack at the casino in Immokalee since December - to panic.

"This is not a done deal at this point. It's just another step in the process."

My read on that: They're going to try not to lose Immokalee. The deal is for Immokalee to shut down 90 days after a compact is signed. Right now, the tribe is looking at it.

News-Press reporter Mark S. Krzos also points out that the venue that stands to gain the most is the Naples-Fort Myers Greyhound Track. If you think Broward parimutuels have an uphill battle with their slots and paris going against the Hard Rock's blackjack, try doing it like Naples has to: with no slots.

I hate to end with a cliche, but ... stay tuned.

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Presuming the Florida Legislature approves the gambling package and the compact with the Seminole Tribe, as repoted by our Josh Hafenbrack, there will be a little shifting of the gambling scene here.

WINNERS: Poker players and all card rooms: Wow, what a long way from the $10 max-pot games of just a few years ago. The state is likely to approve real no-limit poker (their details are still confusing), which means those $100 max buy-in days are gone. Good riddance. Also big tournaments and larger limit games, such as $10-$20 limit.
Adds Scott Long of www.AnteUpMagazine.com: "Poker players should be ecstatic today."

LOSER: People who like to play $1-$2 limit and other low-limit games. Will there be table space for your game when the house can take a greater rake from the more expensive games?

LOSER: Hayden Fortini, and other young poker players like him. The 19-year-old FAU student won two Battle at the Beach events at the Isle last month. Now he'll be on the sidelines (or the Internet): the state says it's age 21 for poker, matching what it has been for slots.

WINNER: The Naples-Fort Myers Greyhound Racing and Poker: Poker room and even dog racing business took a dive once the Seminole Casino Immokalee began blackjack a few months ago. Now, with the tribe giving up blackjack there, the track expects the parade of people driving 30 miles east to end. And a return to past revenues for the track. Which of course means ...

LOSERS: Southwest Florida blackjack players. Now they'll have to head either to Hard Rock Tampa or Hollywood or cruise ships if they want to play.

WINNER: Seminole Casino Coconut Creek: With an expansion plan that includes a hotel and entertainment similar to what's at the Seminole Hard Rock Hotel and Casino, you had to have an attraction. Now they do, with blackjack. It shouldn't take too long for blackjack, because the surveillance cameras are already in place and the tribe has dealers trained and ready. Which of course means ...

LOSER: The Isle Casino and Racing in Pompano Beach. A real punch in the gut for the casino, locked in a race with Coconut Creek for Palm Beach gamblers. Which of course means...

WINNERS: Palm Beach County gamblers, who soon won't have to drive all the way to Hollywood for blackjack.

WINNER/LOSER: Gulfstream Park Casino & Racing, Mardi Gras Gaming & Racetrack and Dania Jai-Alai. As Mardi Gras' Dan Adkins said, this whole thing still needs some digesting. But Dania's parent company, Boyd Gaming, held off on bringing in slots to the fronton, which is barely keeping afloat. Boyd has been (correctly) waiting for the tax rate to drop before building. Is now the time? And the approval of nighttime thoroughbred racing can only help Gulfstream, giving the venue another option.

WINNER: Your South Florida gambling writer, who many people bookmark (hint!), and again has plenty of news to cover in the next few months.

Your comments are welcomed.

Updated: "Clovus" who posts often at www.Pocket Fives.com, addresses the age rule on the jump of the blog:

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Orlando Sentinel columnist Scott Maxwell points out some, er, inconsistencies among Florida legislators that are anti-gambling and their positions on other state games of chance, such as the lottery.

The line I like best is his comment that poker players have offered in recent months: that you can bet all you want on a slot (and horses and the lottery, for that matter) but when it comes to poker, their gambling impulses need to be controlled.

And I agree on his line about the suited Jack-10, too, even though it's what knocked me out of my most recent tournament, getting outplayed and fishing for the straight after a Q-9-6 flop.

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This from our Florida Politics blog:

The House just heard lengthy testimony from Earl Grinols, an anti-gambling economics professor at Baylor University in Texas.

Grinols told House members that casino gambling could cause crime to rise 5 to 8 percent in local communities, with an uptick in areas like burglary, larceny and even murder. And he said any gambling revenues would be offset by social costs in divorces, bankruptcies, suicides, etc.

Grinols told the committee he wasn’t paid for his testimony. That’s true, but he did get travel.

From House spokeswoman Jill Chamberlin: “We don’t have a contract and he’s not a paid consultant. We are paying his travel expenses (hotel, airfare) and he can submit a per diem voucher for meals, etc., just as a House employee outside of session would do.”

My questions, had I been there, are:

1.) Has he ever been to South Florida, and if so, what stats are there for here?

2.) Has he seen the Florida Council on Compulsive Gambling's numbers, which, while showing an increase in calls to the gambling hotline, has not been able to link them to more of the actions he mentions?

I put this post together on Friday, then our Michael Mayo comes out with his take on Sunday, complete with his own reference to Old Scratch, which I've added here.

And Sheldon Glass, who emails his local legislators -- and more, even Gov. Crist -- almost daily, commented:

Whatever happened to the lies when slots were being voted on four years ago about increased crime, prostitution and an increase in traffic jams around the casinos from the same Christian and Baptist coalitions?

None of this ever happened. Why are these people, who are always wrong and, and are only concerned about creating unconstitutional bigoted laws disguised in their view of family values, given any credibility whatsoever?

I've got a horror story for you: Four churches were built in my area in the last 6 years and the land taken off the tax rolls because of it.

My taxes went up because of the loss of revenue from this scam. So now I am paying higher taxes to make up the difference for property taken off the tax rolls to support their bigoted ideas and lies.

What do you all think? Agree or disagree?

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The Florida House had hinted at its plans, and now they're looking more solid: They're saying no blackjack in their version of gambling legislation. It'll go through by Wednesday, they say.

But it's only half of the legislature. The Senate is still looking at not only keeping gambling as it is in the state, but actually expanding it.

I've been saying that this whole thing is a multi-variable equation, with the governor vs. the Legislature vs. the Seminoles vs. the parimutuels. And I have no idea what's right. I don't even know what is fair.

So, for one minute put aside your already-cemented opinions and look at it from the other guy's side.

And send me the response to this question: "What do you think is fair?"

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I. Nelson Rose, who has made our Gambling pages with advice on gambling and the law, now speaks up about the Seminole Casinos, according to a post by our Josh Hafenbrack.

He writes that Rose's 31-page opinion, dated March 9, has been distributed to members of a House select committee planning to release a rewrite of the compact -- minus blackjack and baccarat -- as early as next week.

While federal law prevents state authorities from going on tribal land to enforce anti-gambling laws, Nelson wrote, Florida has "lots of ways to deal with individuals who are involved with illegal gambling, even if the actual operation cannot be raided."

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Our Josh Hafenbrack writes that some Democratic legislators wanted to explore the compact with the Seminole Tribe as a way to pay for state ills, only their efforts got shot down.

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