South Florida Sun-Sentinel


Main

Category: Strategy (6)

March 16, 2008

March Madness and using the efficiency margin

There's no better time to be in Las Vegas than the first weekend of March Madness with 48 college basketball games (not including play-in games) over four days.

My buddies and I have been making our annual trip for the past few years, only this time what happens in Vegas won't necessarily stay in Vegas -- I'll be blogging about everything from basketball bets to what's happening on the poker, blackjack and craps tables, and some things in between.

I'll begin blogging from the desert on Thursday, but like so many others I started poring over my bracket within minutes of the field of 65 being announced. I haven't studied the lines on the games yet, but I've already spent a couple hours going through Basketball Prospectus' efficiency margin. That is, a team's pace (possessions per 40 minutes) and its points per possession minus its opponents' points per possession. Last year, it pegged 75 percent of the final eight.

Of course it doesn't factor in what the line of the game is, but it does give you some good ideas about a team. For instance, Miami and Oklahoma both fall into the negative category with -.01 and -.02 EMs, respectively. Translation: Both teams were outscored by their opponents during conference play this season. That doesn't bode well for either since teams that fell into this category the last two years were a combined 1-4 in the tournament. That's where EM can help you stay away from potential pitfalls.

As Basketball Prospectus author John Gasaway points out, Syracuse was outscored by its Big East opponents in the 2005-06 season but earned a lofty No. 5 seed as conference tourney champion -- they were promptly bounced by No. 12 seed Texas A&M in the first round. In other words, a high seed may not mean much if a team has a negative EM.

Some teams you should keep an eye on, no matter the line: Kansas and Wisconsin. They were the top two teams in the country in EM this year with UCLA right behind them. Surprisingly, top-seeded North Carolina was only sixth-best in EM.

To read more about EM, click here.

I'll be back later this week to share what I think are the best bets of the first round, along with some strategies for Vegas this time of year (both in and out of the casino). In the meantime, send me your feedback on what teams and games you do or don't like, plus what some of your other favorite bets or plays are by emailing me at bwacker@sun-sentinel.com.

To print your own bracket, click here.

-- Brian Wacker, Sun-Sentinel.com

Discuss this entry

February 1, 2008

Poker: Putting several players on high cards

I play in a home game that's pretty loose, so I can't narrow down the possibilities enough to put players on high cards like Joe Beevers does here at the WSOP.

But I still think I can apply the same logic of figuring out what an overbet really means. Plus, I agree, the better you play, the more hands you don't run all the way down to the river.

Meanwhile, Super Bowl XLII is Sunday. Looking for some good prop bets, if anyone out there has anything going.

Discuss this entry

January 15, 2008

Are chops for chumps?

To chop or not to chop? That is the question: Whether ‘tis nobler to accept splitting the prize pool between the few fortunate enough to survive a tournament or to suffer the outrageous slings and arrows of shorthanded/heads-up play.

Alright, not to get all Shakespearean on you poker players, but I was just wondering your feelings on chopping. And not to get all Miss Manners on you either, but what’s your rule of thumb on proper etiquette when it comes to the chop?

It’s a problem many players love to have, because it means you’ve made the money.

In the case of a single-table sit-and-go, I usually offer to chop the prize money once it gets to heads-up. Part of it is lack of confidence in my heads-up play, another part of it is knowing so many goofy things can happen once it’s one-on-one. If the other player rejects my offer, then it’s a duel to the end.

In the case of a multi-table, the chop offers usually start floating around once it’s down to the final table. Is it bad form to reject a chop offer when everybody else wants to do it? Generally I go with the flow, but if I have a big chip lead I don’t want to be too generous either.

How do you handle the chopping situation, and do you hold it against other players if they refuse to go along?

Discuss this entry

January 14, 2008

Poker: Diving into the deep end

poker.jpgTaking my game or lack of to the next level is a goal of mine this year.

Slots have been my game of choice and source of enjoyment. Yet, I don’t feel challenged. Slots can be a mindless game without strategy. Do you agree?

So this year I want to dive into the deep end of the pool: Poker.

Fear races through my veins at the thought of sitting at the poker tables. My fear is on multiple levels: 1) No idea what any of the numbers or symbols mean; 2) No clue what the game is about; 3) Playing against the dealer and others; and 4) Not knowing if I can even play with my self-imposed $50 budget?

Can anyone suggest a way for me to dive in with a life vest without drowning?

Discuss this entry

January 11, 2008

What would you have done?

I'm not going to give my own poker advice on this blog because if you all listen to me, you'll be broke. But a beauty of this blog is I get to ask everyone else about poker, in the name of journalism.

So, here we go:

I'm playing in a multitable tournament at Dania, with an average chip stack, think it's 2000 or so. I'm in the big blind (100 units).

I get pocket 10s. Five players in front of me call the 100.

So I bet out 500. Get two callers.

Flop comes, 2-4-8, rainbow.

So, with no overcards, continuation bet, another 500. Get one caller, from first position.

Uh-oh.

Another blank on the turn, maybe a 5. I check, he bets 500, then mercifully he checks it out on the river, another 5. Friendly game.

He turns over queens. He slow-played the queens from the first seat.

Where did I go wrong? Should I:

a.) Not have bet out on the 10s at all?
b.) Bet more?
c.) I didn't do anything wrong. That's poker.
d.) Other

Send me some responses and I'll put them up.


Discuss this entry

January 10, 2008

How Ferguson played J-10 at World Series

While I got beat holding 10s in the big blind in my post above, Chris "Jesus" Ferguson turned out to be a little luckier playing J-10 at the 2007 World Series of Poker, as documented in the weekly poker column that runs in our Showtime! newspaper section.

As I said in the post above, when we have columnists like Rosenbloom, you're going to see me sticking more to the poker news, rather than advice.

Discuss this entry

About This Blog

Maybe you've made the right play, maybe you haven't. Your heart speeds up, your stomach rumbles.

That's why it's called gambling.

Action is a view of the numbers, the psychology and the flavor of gambling here in South Florida, through our lens.

We do have one sure bet. There's something here for you.


More

Subscribe by email

To get every blog entry sent to you,
simply enter your email address:

Delivered by FeedBurner

Or subscribe through an RSS reader.

Powered by Movable Type 3.36
Hosted by LivingDot

Add Action to Technorati Favorites