'American Idol': Tweaked odds (The TV Zone)

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Suddenly, a front-runner ...

Check this out:

Gay was wrong.

This doesn't happen often, or by "often" I mean, "this is not acknowledged often."

But I got it a little off - the odds that I posted alongside the "Idol" Final Thirteen the other day.

Now, by "wrong," I don't mean egregiously wrong - the intent was clear. But that's not good enough, pal.

So Dr. Jeffrey S. Simonoff, a brilliant fellow and prof at NYU (and grad of Stony Brook) was kind enough to re-calibrate the odds - or tweak them - and I've posted the new ones. His note/explanation is one the jump...

Now, here's what I've done. The first chart: Prof. Simonoff's corrected odds to Tuesday's predictions.

Then, the NEXT chart: I've re-shuffled the figures, based on last night's performances. These are certainly subjective too but hopefully the numbers/odds are the right ones this time...) .

(That nice photo above? By Christopher Isaacson, of the Upright Caberet, as posted in Broadwayworld.com. It was from last year's 2008 "Holiday Blowout;" Jake Simpson is in the background.)

Kris Allen: 1:57
Megan Joy Corkrey: 1:40
Anoop Desai: 1:17
Matt Giraud: 1:9
Danny Gokey: 1:7
Alexis Grace: 1:5
Allison Iraheta: 1:9
Adam Lambert: 1:25
Scott Macintyre: 1:13
Jasmine Murray: 1:81
Jorge Nunez: 1:13
Lil Rounds: 1:4
Michael Sarver: 1:81

Now...the latest odds:

Most stay the same ... but, Allen moves up, and so does Lambert (duh). Allison, who was wobbly last night, moves way down. Overall, the guys are looking better than the ladies ...

Kris Allen: 1:17
Megan Joy Corkrey: 1:40
Anoop Desai: 1:25
Matt Giraud: 1:9
Danny Gokey: 1:7
Alexis Grace: 1:9
Allison Iraheta: 1:25
Adam Lambert: 1:5
Scott Macintyre: 1:13
Jasmine Murray: 1:81
Jorge Nunez: 1:13
Lil Rounds: 1:4
Michael Sarver: 1:25

Unfortunately, you should have run your column by a statistician before submitting it,
because the odds you gave are physically impossible. This has nothing
to do with your opinions of the contestants, but is simply a matter
of arithmetic.

Odds and probabilities are mirror images of each other: one determines
the other. If the odds are a:b that an event will occur, that is exactly
the same as saying that the probability that the event will occur is
a/(a+b). Thus, when you say that your odds for Kris Allen winning are
1:35, you are also saying that your probability that he will win is
1/36. Since one and only one person will win, the sum of all of your
probabilities must be 1 (that is, there must be a 100% percent chance
that someone will win). Unfortunately, the probabilities implied by your
odds sum to about 1.60, making them physically impossible.

The problem is that you have made your odds too short; that is, in
order for the odds to be possible, you have to increase them, thereby
lowering the probabilities. This could be done by leaving some odds the
same while increasing others, but if you wanted to preserve the relative
chances of all of the contestants, you need to divide each of the
probabilities by 1.60. If you do that, correct odds are roughly as
follows (these are not exact, because I'm using the 1:x form to
represent the odds, but they're close, as they imply probabilities that
sum to .995):

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'American Idol': Tweaked odds

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