The TV Zone

(Kevin Winter/ Getty)

On balance, I believe the answer is yes.

What seems to be overlooked in this very skillful "Tonight Show" transition from Jay Leno to Conan O'Brien is that five years ago, nothing was a given. Conan's in this gig simply because he too displayed some TV-style sang froid. As hot as just about anyone in TV at the time, he and his agents demanded some love from NBC, and love not in the form of cold cash. They wanted "Tonight" and suggested - or perhaps promised - that they would walk without it. Conan was shopped and there was much interest elsewhere - remarkably this set Dave in play, too, and the upshot was that CBS ended up giving their late night man a lot more love too.

Jay? At first he pretended to take it all in stride, but there's no doubt that once the shock wore off and the realization of what had just happened had set in, he began to plot his revenge. Jay pretends to be a nice guy, and I do believe that he genuinely is. But you don't spend a lifetime in show business without knowing how to throw knives.

Now, Jay's the big winner. Conan's "Tonight" ascendancy feels anti-climatic because Jay's ascendancy to ten really is an historic change. Meanwhile, Jay wins no matter what happens. If ten is a debacle - it won't be - or simply a place-holder until NBC figures out what to do at that hour, then he leaves, sits on his non-compete for six months, then joins Fox, ABC, or (conceivably) CBS when Dave retires.

At that point, the battle that NBC always feared will take place.

Jay, you see, is a very smart guy. He learned long ago: Don't get emotional. Get even.

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