The Idol Blog

In case anyone was still wondering...I'm picking David Archuleta to win tonight.

If it's Cook I won't be upset...but after last night, I would be very surprised.

For now, waiting for the big show...

This could be the answer... Simon Cowell was on The Tonight Show last night and said:

"Who would I like to see win? I'm going to say, David Cook. And I'll tell you why I say that...only because the guy started off working in a bar...I kind of feel he deserves to win more...where the other guy, he's 17, cute, hasn't quite had to work so hard as the other one."

While I'm still guessing Archuleta will win until I see the performances tonight...Simon is usually right on, love him or hate him. While he didn't give a real "prediction" (as he has in the past, such as with Carrie Underwood), it's a pick, and we'll see. Meanwhile, let's not forget, Paula gave her pick a couple of weeks ago...for David Cook...and hasn't backed away from that.

VS

The latest word is that David Cook is the favorite to win, according to the online odds makers. And, yes, I've heard it from most people I talk to -- they like David Cook more than David Archuleta. Still, as of today, I'm picking Arhuleta to win, unless someone can convince me otherwise.

1.) I'm guessing, the people who like Cook more than Archuleta don't vote as much as they talk. If Archuleta is picking up the younger vote, I think that translates into more phone calls.

2.) Archuleta is the "consistent factor" of the season. He's the Rubin, the Taylor, the Fantasia, and the Carrie. Four of the six idols that weren't going to lose from day one. Archuleta was pegged from the beginning, and that's not a bad place to be... (The other two seasons: Kelly, too new, no favorite... Jordin, up against someone who, while extremely cool, performed more sound effects than vocals.) Cook, on the other hand, is the Bo Bice, the Blake Lewis, the Clay Aiken (you'll get my point in a moment), the Diana DeGarmo... Boy, they were so strong, we wanted to vote for them...but America just couldn't do it. There was doubt...were they really "The American Idol?"

3) Cook is too cool to win. So was Daughtry, so was Blake, so was Bo Bice, and so was Sanjaya (kidding)... It could be great for the show if Cook wins, but he might be a little too "cool" for "Pop Idol"...

4) If the final song, which I haven't heard yet, is anything like the years past, it's going to favor Archuleta.

I think he's great, but Cook has a bigger mountain to climb.

Anyone waking up surprised this morning?

It may not have been the most thrilling season, but it could be one of the best finales ever.

So, who's going to win?

We'll be down to two tonight...right after we say goodbye to Syesha... I'm still picking David Archuleta to win...and for David Cook's sake, I hope he does. Do "real rockers" win American Idol? Either way, it will be a fun finale, and I'd be fine with either David taking the crown.

Loved this description I read of David Archuleta from last night, written by Ann Powers on latimes.com:

Taking on Chris Brown's languidly anthemic "With You" as his personal song selection, Archuleta wobbled his hips like a duckling learning to mate and grinned with the glee of someone surprising himself. It was his least comfortable performance in weeks, full of vocal stumbles, and he did seem silly uttering the phrase "my boo" - it's an Afro-Caribbean term, popular in hip hop songs, and our Mormon favorite's just not fly enough to pull it off. But the song's awkward movements gave us something more important than his other two spot-on ballads could offer: a glimpse at a Pinocchio letting himself become a boy, made of something other than beautifully polished wood.

That quick glimpse into the heart of goofy Archie -- who actually sees the girls screaming at his feet, and wants to touch their outstretched hands, and even steal a glance at one or two -- exposed a side different than this baby trouper projects when he's playing the balladeer. Chastised by the judges, Archuleta retreated behind his grown-up mask for his next number, a rigorously sincere version of Fogelberg's wedding song, "Longer."

The final four will soon be three... If Jason Castro isn't sent home, I'll be (not so) really surprised.

That's my pick, but a new poll I saw online this morning showed more people thought Jason did better than Syesha last night. Oh really?

What do you think? Who's going home tonight?

Something happened over the past couple of weeks... Yes, Brooke White won me over. Of course, when you're down to five, and you know the two Davids aren't going home...you've got a one out of three chance leaving. And, after this past Tuesday night, I really didn't think Brooke was an issue. I mean, if she didn't go home the week before, how could she be "reverse-voted off" last night?

If you didn't see it...check out my interview with Brooke White from this morning. It's on our homepage, fox40.com, in the video player, 5/1 - American Idol Booted.

Meanwhile, there are four left, but I do believe we've got our final three: David, David, and Syesha...which is what I wrote in my blog entry on 4/10. We will see.

Anyone think the two Davids won't be in the final two?

Best guess this morning...

In the bottom two:

2.) Syesha

And, going home this week:

1.) Jason Castro

Though, I could see an Idol twist, with one of the Davids in the bottom two, but not going home.

I'm completely lost after last week...odd season... What do you think?

I know this is coming in a little late, but here's what I really meant to write yesterday, after the Tuesday night performances:

Wow, another incredible night of performances last night... Here's who I think is 100% safe this week:

1.) Brooke White - like all professionals, she can handle the pressure. Even if it's too much, she just stops the song and starts it again. Just amazing! We see real pros do this all the time...well, maybe not wannabe stars like Kelly Clarkson or Carrie Underwood...but, just think about all those times you see people sing the Star Spangled Banner at sporting events. They always take a couple of tries to get going. Or, every concert you've ever been to, symphony, or recital... Just ask any performer, especially those being judged, it's all about starting and stopping and getting a second chance to do your best. So, no problem for Brooke. She's brave and she's real, and we like that. She's going nowhere.

2) David Archuleta - another solid performance. He's either one or two at the end of this...next to David Cooke or Brooke.

3) David Cook - another great performance, this time he was unpredictable by being predictable. He'll sail through!

4) Jason Castro - perfect song choice for his voice, and he just doesn't need to try too hard...just a few whispers and we're hooked. He just seems like such a nice guy, I have to vote for him. No way he's going home tonight.

In the bottom two:

2) Syesha - problem: she was the first performer of the night...and as we all know now, not even her amazing vocals could keep her out of the bottom two, with that dreaded first spot. Sorry, Syesha, maybe you'll get to sing last next week.

And going home this week:

1) Carly Smithson - she hasn't been in the bottom three much, but she probably should have been there every time. She's not connecting with the viewers, not picking the right songs, and her half-way decent performance last night was really (still) just a bunch of shouting. Plus, she got the "kiss of death" from Simon -- he liked her this week...and what does he know? She's gone.

I think a better song for Brooke White last night would have been "Don't Cry for Me Argentina," especially if she was going to deliver another dreadful performance. It's time for her to go. After "stopping and starting" again...yes, again...not for the first time, but the second (remember when she was at the piano)...it's enough second chances.

In the bottom three:

3) Syesha

2) Jason Castro

and going home this week:

1) Brooke White

Though, if I had any guts, I'd say Jason Castro is going home.

Anyone disagree?