The Idol Blog

Who's going home tonight?

Safe this week...easy: David Archuleta, David Cook (yes, he can even sing Dolly Parton), and Michael Johns.

Not safe this week...not so easy: Kristy Lee Cook? Syesha? Could be, but here are my bottom three:

3.) Brooke White

2.) Jason Castro

And, going home this week:

1.) Ramiele Malubay

I'm playing it safe this week, and not taking any chances, as I did last week with a "Carly is going home" upset. Still, this week, I'm less confident than ever before. If it's not Ramiele, it will be one of the better, more-hyped performers going home. If that happens, at the very least I can predict Paula will cry.

What do you think? Who do you think will be in the bottom three and going home tonight?

For a moment, when I saw Kristy Lee Cook in the bottom three last night, I was nervous. Had I really missed the boat this week? And then, goodbye Ramiele...as I expected (as you can see in my previous entry).

It was a nice run for Ramiele, but a bit disappointing for anyone (such as myself) who loved her in the audition rounds. She was easily one of the best, as noted by the judges several times. But, when she finally made it to the big show, she was unable to hit a home run...a couple of singles, a bunt, a foul ball, maybe one double at best. Unfortunately, the others had better averages -- even Kristy Lee Cook hit a home run two weeks ago. By last night, it was time to say goodbye to Ramiele.

Idol Gives Back is tonight, so no one is going home... But, apparently, someone will get the boot tomorrow night, with a special Thursday night results show. My first guess was that no one would be going home, considering the theme of the week, but with a Thursday night results show, let's assume and predict.

Safe this week: again, David Archuleta, David Cook, and Michael Johns (and I even enjoyed his screams). I didn't get (as Simon would say) the Jason Castro performance, but the judges loved it, so I assume he's fine this week as well. Not bad.

That leaves Syesha, Brooke White, Kristy Lee, and Carly Smithson for the bottom three. While I'm reserving the option to think about my picks for an "extra day" this week...here goes:

3.) Kristy Lee Cook

2.) Syesha

And, going home this week:

1.) Carly Smithson

I've got to believe that Carly's performance last night pushed her over the edge. I'd also like to believe that Brooke White will be in the bottom three, but I'm nervous not to name Kristy Lee Cook every week at this point until she's gone...

What do you think? Who do you think will be in the bottom three and going home this week?

With the results show tonight, after Idol Gives Back last night, I've got an extra day to figure out who's going home this week. I made a prediction yesterday after the Tuesday performances, but I'm rethinking today.

As we talked about on the morning news today, according to the latest Reuters poll, fans now say, David Archuleta will win, David Cook will come in second, and Carly Smithson will finish third. After that, Brooke White, Michael Johns, Jason Castro, Kristy Lee Cook, and Syesha Mercado.

So, that would mean, Syesha is going home tonight. But, I'm still not changing my picks. Yes, even with Carly Smithson in the top three of the poll, I say, she's still out tonight. And, if not tonight, then sooner rather than later. Idol isn't this predictable...the poll has it wrong. As of today, here's how I see it going down, starting with the winner, and the place they'll finish:

1) David Archuleta

2) David Cook

3) Syesha

4) Michael Johns

5) Brooke White

6) Jason Castro

7) Kristy Lee Cook

8) Carly Smithson

How do you like that?

Again, In the bottom three tonight:

3.) Kristy Lee Cook

2.) Syesha

And, going home this week:

1.) Carly Smithson

What do you think? Who do you think will be in the bottom three and going home tonight?

Michael Johns has left the building. If you weren't shocked by that last night, I'm not sure what show you're watching. True, he wasn't great...but better than a few still in the game... At best, Johns was very good...but only a Bono, Jim Kerr of Simple Minds, Jim Morrison, or Michael Hutchence of INXS wannabe... Unfortunately for Johns, those jobs are already taken, a million times over.

So, so long, mate... Now, you and Ace Young (from Season 5) can hang out together...two nice guys that most people probably thought looked a little better than they sang. Of course, there are worse things in life...

Meanwhile, Kristy Lee Cook is apparently making a comeback... I'm getting some interesting feedback on her, as you can see in the comments for the entry below. I agree, she's doing well, but again, it's only a matter of time. (If I had the guts, I wouldn't have picked her for my bottom three this week.) Her problem: she's no Carrie Underwood...who could sing anything, Country or not. I predict she'll be in the bottom three next week, along with Carly Smithson, but of course, we'll wait to see their performances.

My new standings:
1) David Archuleta

2) David Cook

3 and 4) Brooke White / Syesha

5 and 6) Jason Castro / Kristy Lee Cook

7) Carly Smithson

What do you think?

My guess is Michael Johns has probably stopped crying by now...as making it anywhere near the top isn't so bad on Idol. Of course, we all know this, as we saw another example last night when Season 5's Kellie Pickler, who finished #6, cleaned up at the CMT Awards. And, we all know Season 3's Jennifer Hudson, who finished #7, later won an academy award. But, just look at the others who have albums now... Mr. Johns will not be far behind (unless he really loves teaching tennis).

Let's start with Phil Stacey, who has a new album coming out on April 29. Just take a look at the cover.

All I have to say is 1) the album is self titled, and 2) Phil Stacey is the reason I almost quit watching Idol.

Who else? Remember these guys?

Please, someone comment and tell me Carmen's album actually has some redeeming qualities.

Paris? Oh really? She had one amazing performance, when she sang Midnight Train to Georgia in Season 5, and it took her all the way to #5 on the show. (By the way, Chris Daughtry finished #4 that season and that launched him to stardom...so, please, stop crying that he went home too soon.)

Okay, I might actually have to check out Mandisa's album...or the few she has out.

Meanwhile, Amazon.com says Constantine's album is "in stock." You're kidding!? Though, I will say, Constantine is my absolute favorite American Idol...because he is so bad and doesn't know it. You can't help but laugh when you see him. He is pure entertainment. He's even better than William Hung...well, almost.

So, you want more? How about John Stevens, Latoya London, RJ Helton, George Huff, Jasmine Trias... They all have albums.

But, there's only one I'm buying.

Who's going home tonight? The bottom three are easy...but it's a hard week (to say the least) to pick the worst.

Safe this week: David Archuleta

Not 100% safe: David Cook, Brooke White and Jason Castro.

In the bottom three:

3) Syesha

2) Kristy Lee Cook

and going home this week:

1) Carly Smithson

It's a tough call... Here's my scorecard from last night:

David Archuleta: A- ...not his best, but still great. And, Simon is completely on board now, as he's started to talk about David while commenting on the other performers. He's in to the end.

Carly Smithson: C ...enough shouting, I can't take it anymore. She's fine, but the party has got to be over. Is she connecting with anyone?

Syesha: B ...could have one of the best voices this season, when she's on. Last night, she sounded great, but it was a forgettable performance.

Brooke White: B+ ...sure, she didn't sound perfect, and was extremely nervous, but she was real, and that goes a long way. Apparently, America loves her. (Though, if I'm way off tonight, then she's going home.)

Kristy Lee Cook: B ...fine, rough start, old-fashioned, but probably did enough to keep the votes coming in from her dedicated fans.

David Cook: B- ...and I'm being generous, but at the very least, it was different, and I think he continues to prove that he might be worthy of winning the whole thing...

Jason Castro: B ...he got the job done, he finished the show, he'll be fine.

What do you think? Who do you think will be in the bottom three and going home tonight?

I don't think it takes a genius to realize that if you perform first on American Idol, and the voting doesn't start until an hour later, you probably won't be remembered by as many voters as the person who performed last. So, what does that mean? I think it means, while you won't necessarily get voted off, when you perform first, the cards are stacked against you. Of course, if you're great, you're great. But, if you're just "okay"...first is not a great place to be.

In a report from today's USA TODAY:

In 69 finals episodes, 20 singers in the No. 1 spot have been voted off, seven more than would be expected based on statistical probability, says Nick Straguzzi, co-founder of WhatNotToSing.com, which collects and analyzes Idol data. In four out of six weeks this season, the first finalist has been in the bottom three, twice being eliminated. "The No. 1 slot is by far the most dangerous for finalists," Straguzzi says.

What perhaps is more interesting is knowing how the order of the weekly performances is decided. In the report:

The Producers decide the singing order except for the finale, which is a singer's choice after a coin flip. (Only one finale leadoff singer, Ruben Studdard, has won Idol.) They vary the order each week to be fair, but also try to arrange singers and their songs to make the most entertaining show, executive producer Ken Warwick says.

"It's worked out with two things in mind: where the kid (performed) last week, and if it's a slow, 'dirgey' ballad, I try not to open with that," he says.

Point is, save the best for last, unless that contestant performed in the last spot in the week before.

What do you think? Ultimately, shouldn't the order in which the contestants perform be random every week?

I think a better song for Brooke White last night would have been "Don't Cry for Me Argentina," especially if she was going to deliver another dreadful performance. It's time for her to go. After "stopping and starting" again...yes, again...not for the first time, but the second (remember when she was at the piano)...it's enough second chances.

In the bottom three:

3) Syesha

2) Jason Castro

and going home this week:

1) Brooke White

Though, if I had any guts, I'd say Jason Castro is going home.

Anyone disagree?

I know this is coming in a little late, but here's what I really meant to write yesterday, after the Tuesday night performances:

Wow, another incredible night of performances last night... Here's who I think is 100% safe this week:

1.) Brooke White - like all professionals, she can handle the pressure. Even if it's too much, she just stops the song and starts it again. Just amazing! We see real pros do this all the time...well, maybe not wannabe stars like Kelly Clarkson or Carrie Underwood...but, just think about all those times you see people sing the Star Spangled Banner at sporting events. They always take a couple of tries to get going. Or, every concert you've ever been to, symphony, or recital... Just ask any performer, especially those being judged, it's all about starting and stopping and getting a second chance to do your best. So, no problem for Brooke. She's brave and she's real, and we like that. She's going nowhere.

2) David Archuleta - another solid performance. He's either one or two at the end of this...next to David Cooke or Brooke.

3) David Cook - another great performance, this time he was unpredictable by being predictable. He'll sail through!

4) Jason Castro - perfect song choice for his voice, and he just doesn't need to try too hard...just a few whispers and we're hooked. He just seems like such a nice guy, I have to vote for him. No way he's going home tonight.

In the bottom two:

2) Syesha - problem: she was the first performer of the night...and as we all know now, not even her amazing vocals could keep her out of the bottom two, with that dreaded first spot. Sorry, Syesha, maybe you'll get to sing last next week.

And going home this week:

1) Carly Smithson - she hasn't been in the bottom three much, but she probably should have been there every time. She's not connecting with the viewers, not picking the right songs, and her half-way decent performance last night was really (still) just a bunch of shouting. Plus, she got the "kiss of death" from Simon -- he liked her this week...and what does he know? She's gone.

Best guess this morning...

In the bottom two:

2.) Syesha

And, going home this week:

1.) Jason Castro

Though, I could see an Idol twist, with one of the Davids in the bottom two, but not going home.

I'm completely lost after last week...odd season... What do you think?