Spin Cycle

Which was the most fevered lunge for self-promotion by a power player?

1. Gov. David Paterson saying he couldn’t condone civil-disobedience that halted traffic in protest of the Sean Bell shooting case.

2. Democrat Tracey Cline — after winning a primary to succeed disgraced ex-Raleigh DA Michael Nifong — saying: “This was not about the Duke lacrosse case...This was the healing after the lacrosse case...”

3. U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer, asked if he’d encourage Hillary Clinton to stay in the presidential race, responding: “I'm not going to get into it.”

Obama adds a bunch of states to the union in Oregon. Apparently, "presumptive" does not mean "mistake free:"

Here's a Clinton ad for Oregon, featuring Joseph Wilson and Valerie Plame endorsing her plan to withdraw from Iraq:

We missed some late superdelegate action on Friday.

Obama added Joe Johnson, a DNC member from Virginia. Clinton added Ciro Rodriguez, a Congressman from Texas. Since Clinton had added another early in the day but also had one switch to Obama, the final net on the day was 9-1 for Obama.

The gains tied or gave Obama the lead in superdelegates for the first time, according to some counts, and widened his lead in all delegates.

A Mothers Day video from Chelsea to Hillary. Interesting pictures:

Already battling budget cuts and the closing the nursing home, leaders of Suffolk’s biggest union, Association of Municipal Employees, are now fighting among themselves.

Cheryl Felice, president of the 7,000-member union (photo left), called a special convention Friday aimed at changing AME’s by-laws to clear the way to remove executive vice president Lydia Sebasto (photo right) from her full-time union post.

Felice proposed new ethics rules which would permit a complaint to be filed to remove any of the seven vice presidents on full-time release after a hearing by the union board of directors. Currently, Felice controls release time for all but one of the seven unions top officials, the exception being executive vice president.

Prior to the convention, the union leader said she wanted Sebasto out because she “comes and goes as she pleases” and is not cooperative. Critics say Felice’s move was a power play to put the board of directors rather than the union’s judical board in charge of removals.

Sebasto rejected Felice’s claims, saying “If she believes I have done anything wrong as officer she needs to file charges with the judicial board and she has not done that.” Felice could not be reach after the meeting.

After a day-long session, the 110 delegates balked at adopting the new rules, but set up a committee to work on language. However, no action is likely until the union’s fall convention. Delegate Brian Watts, a Felice critic, said, “It wasn’t a victory for Lydia, but it was a loss for Cheryl.”

Felice afterward said she’s still confident the change will be approved. “The isse of accountability has clearly been raised,” she said.

Rick Brand

A little pickup in the flow of superdelegates to Obama.

In addition to three this morning (one taken from Clinton), he announces endorsements from Hawaii Rep. Mazie Hirono; Laurie Weahkee, a NM superdelegate and Native American organizer; Wilber Lee Jeffcoat, a South Carolina Democratic vice-chair; California DNC members Ed Espinoza and Vernon Watkins.

That's a net gain of eight -- Clinton added one, but last one.

Watkins to AP: "The election is over, everybody knows that. Obama has won,"

With dark blue counties the strongest for Hillary, the map below shows just how well she's likely to do in the rest of Appalachia -- WV and Kentucky -- in the next two weeks. So far there's no sign of a bump for Obama.

So, a blog at Real Clear Politics argues, she's been counted out too soon: 30-40 point wins in Appalachia, a similar performance in Puerto Rico, and Clinton can catch up in at least some measures of the total popular vote. And if she does that, she has a credible claim. Obama, by mostly ignoring the two states, may be hoping to depress turnout and thereby the size if not the spread of the loss:

"What happens to 'It's Over' if Clinton pulls a 40-point victory in West Virginia on Tuesday, then follows it up a week later with a 30-point victory in Kentucky? If these states turn out in the same margins that states since March 4th have averaged, that would imply a net of about 290,000 votes for Clinton. That puts her within striking distance of a reasonable popular vote victory. 'Over' will be over as we turn our attention to Puerto Rico."

Even with those numbers, it's pretty much an outside shot: She's 714,000 behind right now. Even if she picked up another 250,000 in a Puerto Rico blowout, she'd be 160,000 to 200,000 behind. So she'd still have to throw in, say, Florida to make the case. But it's worth knowing there's still a minority opinion out there among political pundits...

The media may have declared Obama the winner, but there's no flood of superdelegates, and no sign that he's pulling away from Clinton in Gallup's three-day national tracking poll. They're in a statistical tie for the 16th consecutive day after Thursday polling.

A Republican National Committee ad attacking Obama. Nothing below the belt, but it gives you a feel of how the definition of "negative" changes in the general -- at least one glove is taken off.

Separately: How about a law making it a federal crime to use slow-motion to make candidates look stupid/evil in political ads? Can't they come up with something slightly creative?

Hillary's latest ad for West Va., a fighter-for-the-middle-class spot. All positive. The new rules: Hillary runs, but doesn't attack?

No wonder Obama isn't paying much attention to West Virginia. He's down 66-23 in a poll out today.

And Clinton is pushing a letter signed by 16 "swing state Democrats" supporting her, that makes the case that she'll be the strongest candidate down-ticket. Signers include NY freshmen Gillibrand, Hall, Arcuri. Full text is after the jump, and it's backed up with a Power Point presentation you can see here.

Her problem, of course, is not that she doesn't have a good argument. She does, and so does Obama. Her problem is that more Democratic voters thought Obama's argument was better.

Here's one of the slides from the PowerPoint:

Continue reading "Poll: Hillary 66-23 in West Virginia" »

More in the Wall Street Journal on Hillary casting herself as the candidate of white America yesterday, in a Peggy Noonan column:

Quote: " 'Even Richard Nixon didn't say white,' an Obama supporter said, 'even with the Southern strategy.' "

Quote: "If John McCain said, 'I got the white vote, baby!' his candidacy would be over. And rising in highest indignation against him would be the old Democratic Party."

Quote: "To play the race card as Mrs. Clinton has, to highlight and encourage a sense that we are crudely divided as a nation, to make your argument a brute and cynical 'the black guy can't win but the white girl can' is -- well, so vulgar, so cynical, so cold, that once again a Clinton is making us turn off the television in case the children walk by."

Quote: " 'She has unleashed the gates of hell,' a longtime party leader told me. 'She's saying, 'He's not one of us.' "

Leon Panetta, a Californian and former Clinton WH chief of staff, tells local TV that Clinton's time has come: "I think there's a time now to concede and unify the party."

Al Sharpton, using many more words on NY1, delivers the same message:

“As you know, I’ve been in the ministry of civil rights all my life, but had dealings with entertainers because of James Brown. The worst thing in the world is when an entertainer doesn’t know when the show is over. The audience is gone, the lights are down, you’re getting ready to cut the mics off and you are still on the stage singing. It’s over, it’s all right, it’s over. Come sing another day, but this show is over Senator Clinton.”

And: “There is no possible scenario that I see without the total destruction of the Democratic Party for Hillary Clinton to become the nominee.”

Full text of his interview after the jump.

Continue reading "Panetta, Sharpton: Time for her to go" »

Obama starts off the day with two more superdelegate adds:

Rep. Donald Payne of New Jersey (left), an African American and formerly a Clinton backer, switches over to Obama from Hillary. And he also picks up Rep. Peter Fazio of Oregon (right).

And Clinton gets one: Rep. Chris Carney of Pennsylvania, citing the will of the voters in his district. Clinton won it with 70 percent of the vote.

Update: Another for Obama, American Federation of Government Employees union president John Gage, a Maryland superdelegate.

Newsday takes a look at the idea bubbling in some Democratic circles -- that two are better than one.

By GLENN THRUSH AND CRAIG GORDON

CHARLESTON, W.Va.

There's only one problem with the idea of a Hillary Clinton- Barack Obama "Dream Team" ticket -- neither member of the team is ready to buy the dream.

With Clinton's White House hopes on the wane, chatter of a joint ticket with Obama on the top was making the rounds of Democratic power circles, the media and in the two campaigns themselves.

Obama -- who is said to have resisted the idea privately -- fueled the talk himself Thursday, telling CNN that Clinton is "an extraordinary candidate ... so obviously she'd be on anybody's short list to be a potential vice presidential candidate."

And onetime Bill Clinton aide George Stephanopoulos, now ABC's Sunday morning host, reported Thursday top Clinton aides were eager to discuss a peace treaty contingent on the joint ticket.

Clinton advisers deny the campaign is even considering the vice-presidential slot yet. Two people close to the former first lady . . .

Continue reading "Obama-Clinton "Dream Ticket" -- or not" »

Clinton does not seem to be getting that much flack for her comment to USA Today that she can win the nomination because "Senator Obama's support among working, hard-working Americans, white Americans is weakening again and... the whites in both states who had not completed college were supporting me..."

While it made two of the evening news shows, there's been no big denunciation from Obama -- he seems to have decided to move on to McCain, and wouldn't profit from a white/black fight anyway. Some in the blogosphere -- while concerned about the phrasing suggesting that black Americans aren't hard-working -- seem willing to cut her some slack for doing nothing worse than stating the obvious:

TNR's Stump: "It's definitely uncomfortable to hear her say it, but if Hillary thinks white Americans won't elect a black president, is it so transgressive for her to say it out loud? Everyone in politics and media has been having this conversation for more than a year now. If anything it seems better than reliance on cutesy euphemisms like "working class" or "electability." I'm willing to be convinced I'm wrong but I think it's worth considering this before the latest "race-baiter" pile-on gets underway in earnest."

The problem: She is not being analytical, she is saying it with a purpose -- "white," twice, is not a coincidence. The purpose is to emphasize a racial divide as two predominately white states prepare to vote, and to get them to focus on the racial divide instead of ignoring it. If she has the values she espouses, she should be urging those voters to judge the candidates on their merits, not emphasizing the racial divide as her primary talking point.

Jack and Jill Politics: "This kind of comment is less a description than an agitator, it's meant to give white voters the impression that they would be 'disenfranchised' by an Obama win. It's a not so subtle effort to evoke racial resentment over Obama's success."

Or, here: "She is naming her remaining trump card, and considering our country's pitiful history of not frankly dealing with or discussing race -- aside from painful, fumbling defensive fits and starts -- we're left to deal with the fallout of a "poorly worded" statement, lacking a sufficiently stocked toolbox to deal with the ramifications of courting a vote with implicit and explicit biases. "

And, of course, the political situation frames everything.

If Obama is the presumptive nominee, he needs the party's second leading figure to urge white working-class voters to give him a second look -- not to go out of her way to cast herself, a fellow white, as their more reliable champion.