GOP faces Peril '08, from global to local

From his unique perch as Long Island’s lone Republican congressman, Rep. Peter King sees a difference between the trouble his party faces in the region and the electoral peril it confronts across America.
“I think they’re two separate \[problems\] that came together at the same time,” King said yesterday. “There were local issues, going back to the late 1990s, in Nassau County with its budget problems. And Suffolk has had a disunited Republican party. Even just taking the congressional seats on Long Island, we didn’t lose any of them due to national issues,” he said, as some local losses came in otherwise flush GOP years.
King, a backer of President George W. Bush and the military effort in Iraq, acknowledged that the war has hurt the administration’s popularity, given “harsh” media coverage, and that gas prices haven’t helped.
Whatever the reasons, numbers published this week from 26 of the 29 states where voters register by party show GOP enrollment declining since 2005. Voter affiliation with Democrats or with no political party has risen overall. In Iowa and Nevada, Democratic registration surpassed Republican.
In Nassau, some Democrats follow the steady closing of the enrollment gap between their party and the once-mighty GOP with the zest of New Year’s Eve revelers counting down the seconds to midnight. Ten years ago, Republicans held an enrollment edge of 100,000. In November, that was down to about 22,000. This week the margin stands at 13,000 and shrinking, said Nassau Democratic election commissioner Bill Biamonte.
“Demographics” is often the explanation — more immigrants, more racial minorities, more young people, who often enroll as Democrats or unaffiliated, the waning of a previous generation. “For one,” Biamonte explains, “young people coming of age are simply not registering en masse as Republicans, in contrast to their parents. And second, the diverse migration of people from outside Nassau feel that the Democratic Party is more about economic empowerment and plurality as they move into a suburban lifestyle.”
But sociology explains only so much.
Dan Janison
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