At training camps around the NFL, optimism is as high as Devin Hester's ceiling.
That same upbeat and positive atmosphere is the mood at Dove Valley as well. Although, even though no games have been played, I want to throw a dose of reality into the mix here.
First, let me state what I like to call the NFC South exception. (Editor's Note: This is a little used theory I will throw out here to absolve myself of any responsibility of being wrong about the Broncos....which I am......often).
Every team in the NFC South has won the division the year after finishing in last place. That is pretty remarkable but unlikely to happen in the AFC West anytime soon. The NFC South was loaded with talented teams. The difference between being great, good, average, or below average, as in all divisions, is quarterback play. Each team in the NFC South has had great quarterback play and very bad quarterback play. So, it's no surprise that each team has seen its fair share of glory and desperation.
That being said, sure the AFC West could end up being as unpredictable, though, I wouldn't think it will be. So where do the Broncos rank overall?
I know you may not like this, though, I see them as the fifth best team in the Conference---at best. Since only six teams make the Playoffs, I see them as a fringe type contender. If everything goes right, I think they could be third or fourth. However, I will stick to my initial prediction for now. Who is better? Who appears to be worse? Here are my thoughts.
Top Level: New England, Indianapolis, Jacksonville, and San Diego.
To me at this juncture, all of those teams are far better than Denver. The Patriots actually have lost their last two games against the Broncos, though, they have gotten better since, Denver has failed to make the postseason since their Divisional Round win over New England. The Patriots won 17 straight regular season games last season. Denver has gone 9-14 in their last 25 games. They draft rather well and have great chemistry. Denver's biggest problem last year? Chemistry in the confines at Dove Valley.
The Colts are the one organization that makes the Broncos shake more than any other. It is a bad matchup all the way around for them. They can pass, they can run, and they are suffocating on defense. So is San Diego, especially on the latter. Last season, in two meetings against the Chargers, Denver scored no touchdowns.
The nudge to put Jacksonville in this tier was slow but steady. They have a ferocious defense and David Garrard proved to be a credible performer last season. They defeated the Broncos last season in Denver and even though the final score (23-14) was not indicative of a totally one-sided contest, it felt that way. The jaguars just dominated the tempo and ran the football at will over a defense that the Broncos refused to admit was severely flawed in scheme.
Any complaints or disagreements with these choices? Let me know at zmehenti@kwgn.com
Tomorrow: The Broncos are in that next level of teams, below these four. Who joins them on that list? Find out on Tuesday. See you then, have a great day.
-"z"
