by Mark Silva
The Democrats will have more opportunities in the 2008 elections to expand their newly minted majority in the House than the Republicans have to whittle the Democrats' advantage, according to a report from Congressional Quarterly Politics.com
"Barring a tidal shift of voters to the GOP's side over the next 13 months prior to Election Day 2008,'' CQ.com reports, "the Republicans appear highly unlikely to achieve their goal of reclaiming the majority that they held for a dozen years prior to the 2006 elections.''
"The Democrats -- who currently have a 232-201 majority, with one Democratic-held seat and one Republican-held seat vacant -- could have expected to begin the 2008 House campaign in a defensive and perhaps vulnerable position, because their 30-seat gain in the 2006 elections was a much bigger pickup than even many Democratic optimists had anticipated.
'Many of the Democrats first elected in 2006 won in districts that had long elected Republicans, and history shows that freshman officeholders usually are more vulnerable to defeat than more established members. There also was no guarantee that the strongly anti-Republican political environment of 2006 would linger for another election cycle.
"Yet the aggressive campaign push exhibited by national Democratic strategists in 2006 has continnued into the 2008 cycle, with the party acting early to defend its potentially vulnerable incumbents -- and maintaining strong candidate recruitment efforts targeted largely at districts in which Republicans staved off the Democratic surge in 2006, but by narrow margins.
"While polls show a largely disgruntled national electorate thinks no more highly of the current Democratic-controlled Congress than it did of the previous Republican-controlled chamber -- with the lack of resolution of the unpopular war in Iraq a driving issue -- the same surveys show that congressional Republicans as a whole remain more unpopular than their Democratic counterparts.''
Parsing the Ratings, the report from CQPolitics.com:
CQPolitics.com presently classifies 50 House districts as highly competitive, with ratings of either No Clear Favorite (tossup), Leans Democratic or Leans Republican.
The Republicans are the defending party in more of those districts (28) than the Democrats (22). Another 28 districts appear mildly competitive; the partisan breakdown in those districts is 16 Republican-held seats and 12 Democratic-held seats.
The remaining 357 House districts, or 82 percent of the total House membership, appear safe at the moment for the incumbent party -- although those figures may and are likely to change, as strategists of both parties intensify their recruiting efforts and unexpectedly strong candidates emerge for upset bids.
To read the entire analysis by CQ reporter Greg Giroux, as well review all the House seats rated as competitive, visit CQPolitics.com
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Comments
The best thing the Republics (nice sounding name) have going for them are the Democrats who continue to stumble over their two left feet in Congress. As Will Rogers used to say, "I don't belong to an organized party, I'm a Democrat."
Posted by: Cary Oka | September 28, 2007 7:12 AM
Just because public opinion polls show Americans aren't happy with Congress doesn't mean it's good news for GOPPERS.
American frustion is primarily with Dubya mis-managing this needless war in Iraq and Congress's inability to bring Dubya to heel.
Hardly good news for Republican chances in the '08 election.
Posted by: Doug Zook | September 28, 2007 8:24 AM
Read it & weep republicans. Your party is becoming more of a minority with each passing election. Let Rudy answer a few more cell phone calls while speaking, Let Craig continue being in denial, let Bush stump for republican candidates. At this point, democrats would have to align themselves with terrorist to loose any majorities with the way republicans have been running things laltely.
Posted by: RomanB | September 28, 2007 8:46 AM
True enough. And, at least with respect to the Iraq war,
even a substantial increase in the number of Dems in Congress is not going to get us out of there, whether the Prez is a Dem or a Republican.
Republicans want to keep the war going full blast in Iraq for decades. And, after the MSNBC debate, it is clear that none of the leading Dem candidates are willing to commit to more than token withdrawals, if you really listen to what they're saying.
Vote Dem if you like in the Congressional races. But if you think that's going to get us out of Iraq sooner,
better listen harder to the candidates. It won't.
Posted by: Helena | September 28, 2007 9:36 AM
Cary Oka.
One of my favorite quotes.
At the same time the "Republicans" are so out of touch with their constituency and the American people in general that they are self destructing and continue to do so.
"Fiscal Conservatives" who spent as much money, if not more, than the Democrats. "Social Conservatives" who have had more sexual scandals than anyone lately. "Ethics, social conservatives" who keep getting involved in one more scandal after another. Just look at what's going on with the representatives/senator from Alaska. Ethnic diversity - Well, just look at the debate last night. Just a party of Fat, Old, White Men.
If they weren't preaching such a high road, it wouldn't be so hypocritical.
And then we come to the war. Bush gets elected by 51% of the VOTERS and he calls it a mandate. We now have 70% of all Americans saying they want out of Iraq, and the Republicans ignore them. And despite all of this, THEY STILL DON'T GET IT.
As the article says, the Democrats may be bad, but the Republicans are worse.
Posted by: dogjudge | September 28, 2007 9:58 AM
You have three choices:
1. Spineless Democrats. Have some balls. Stand up for what you really believe in even if cost your seat. At least, I will admire you. You can always come back next election if you lose. Clinton did it! Why can't you?
2. Lying corrupt Republicans. They never learn. Always running on hate. Gay bashing. Immigrant bashing. No wonder they do well in the South.
3. Untested Independents. Voting for this guy is like voting to let the wolf in the three little pig's house. You don't know where he stands. Will he eat you or bed you?
Posted by: Lou | September 28, 2007 10:33 AM
I'm w/Cary, and even w/John W, but for different reasons.
Send Shrub a bill with restrictions and make him veto it. If it can't get through the Senate, make the Republics actually filibuster. If nothing gets done, so be it. There isn't much getting done anyway.
Posted by: weinerdog43 | September 28, 2007 10:54 AM
2008 is gonna be a beat down for the GOP. Take back your party Republicans. Say no to neo-con thuggery!!!
Posted by: Logic Prisoner | September 28, 2007 1:02 PM
Mark the Democrats won't win in 08. The 06 election was a time of change the people gave control to the Dems because of corruption and Mark Foley. The people never thought they were voting to get out of Iraq. That was what the Dems thought their mandate was but, they have held over 600 oversight hearings meanly with fierce looks on their face to try to disgrace W and they started trying to tax and spend but, Americans don't want higher taxes or socialized medicine. Come October in 08 the situation will look considerably better for the GOP the Dems have had their chance and can't run the government without taking away Americas freedom on all issues stopping smoking, trying to shut down cars and wanting to go back to horses, not drilling for oil or building refineries, they want free nationalized health care which isn't free. These people are like Jimma Carter turn down the thermostat put on a sweater. They want to tax every business in America because of socalled global warming. America can't remain competitive without making Bush's tax cuts permanent and Americans outside the beltway don't want higher taxes. It's over for these koolaid drinkers. Jerry White, Springfield, IL
Posted by: Jerry White | September 28, 2007 1:49 PM
Well said, Helena. People expect alot from the Democratic Party, but most of those expectations have not been affirmed by the candidates themselves.
H
Posted by: Hannibal | October 1, 2007 12:56 PM