by William E. Gibson
The Bush brothers, George and Jeb, once had a vision of forging a sustainable Republican majority by making the Grand Old Party more inclusive. That meant reaching out in particular to Hispanic voters.
The strategy worked quite well in their respective states.
They had both learned to speak some Spanish, though Jeb fared a lot better than George. As governor of Texas, George cut into the Democratic advantage among Mexican-American voters. As governor of Florida, Jeb tapped into a natural Republican base of Cuban-Americans. Advised by his friend Karl Rove, President Bush went national with this inclusive theme, and that worked too, at least for a couple of elections.
The elder brother celebrated Cuban Independence Day at the White House. He cultivated his friendship with then-President Vicente Fox of Mexico, a fellow rancher across the border. He proposed comprehensive immigration reform, mostly to meet labor needs but also to provide an orderly way to deal with the millions of foreign residents living in the shadows of the law.
Then came the backlash.
The Bush/Rove strategy has just about collapsed, the victim of a debilitating split within the Republican Party over immigration policy. Conservatives balked at giving ``amnesty’’ to those who entered illegally, and many Republicans became convinced that comprehensive reform was a loser at the ballot box.
It probably is a loser, but only in Republican primaries and in certain corners of the country.
Certainly it has been a loser for John McCain, the architect of a reform bill, who has had to toughen his stance while fending off jabs from Republican rivals for the presidential nomination.
But when it comes to general elections, Republicans may find it hard to piece together a winning majority while alienating the nation’s largest minority.
During the 2006 congressional elections, exit polling of Hispanic voters by the Pew Hispanic Center found a shift of 11 percentage points toward Democratic candidates when compared to the 2004 elections. This and other polls indicated that Hispanics consider immigration an important issue, though like other voters they were most concerned about the war in Iraq and the economy. Many are offended by what they perceive to be anti-immigrant rhetoric flowing from the immigration debate.
This issue is especially tricky for Republican candidates in Florida, the largest electoral swing state and home to nearly a million illegal residents. Cuban immigrants, who have a special path to legal status, and Puerto Ricans, who are citizens, do not have a personal stake in comprehensive reform. But they tend to be sympathetic to those who fled to this country.
Now Florida Democrats are launching a new initiative to attract Cuban-Americans who have voted Republican in the past.
The abrupt retreat of Florida Senator Mel Martinez from his brief tenure as general chairman of the Republican National Party reflects the dwindling prospects for a strategy of inclusiveness, which has been put on the same shelf with compassionate conservatism.
Bush had tapped the genial Cuban-American, the only immigrant in the Senate, partly because he had such an uplifting personal story to tell.
Smuggled into this country at age 15 through a Catholic Church program known as Pedro Pan, Martinez found himself in the strange new world of Florida, a legal immigrant with little knowledge of English but a determination to assimilate and succeed.
Just the kind of messenger Bush and Rove needed to craft an inclusive message, particularly to immigrant and Hispanic voters. Martinez was to be the new face, the new voice, the reassuring messenger to the growing Hispanic population.
Martinez was wary from the start. He warned Bush he would not be ``an attack dog’’ and that he would remain a Florida senator first. He envisioned an optimistic, thoughtful party image, infused with a Reaganesque Morning-in-America spirit that made minorities feel good about voting Republican.
But some conservative Republicans immediately objected to a leader who brokered deals with Democrats on an immigration bill that in some minds amounted to rewarding illegal behavior.
The Republican National Committee in effect rebuked Bush and Martinez by passing a resolution that stressed border enforcement.
Soon after the collapse of the immigration bill and passage of the RNC resolution, Martinez let it be known he would step down as general chairman as soon as the party’s presidential nominee was determined early next year. Then last month he called it quits, just 10 months after becoming chairman.
Martinez has faded back into his Senate role and rarely talks about immigration. His colleague McCain now focuses on border enforcement. And many party candidates are counting on a voter backlash to illegal immigration next year and in some local elections this week.
Republicans still promote ``Hispanic outreach’’ efforts, which focus on conservative family values and the party’s entrepreneurial spirit. But clearly the energy has gone out of this movement.
Next year’s elections will indicate whether the party gains or suffers from its tough stance on immigration.
Will it rouse enough support to sweep Democrats aside? Or will it nudge Hispanics in key states away from the Republican Party and create a sustainable Democratic majority?
William E. Gibson, the South Florida Sun-Sentinel’s Washington bureau chief for 25 years, has covered six presidential elections and 13 sessions of Congress. He focuses on national news and politics of special interest to Florida, the nation's largest electoral swing state. Before coming to Washington, he covered Miami for the Sun-Sentinel. He has also worked at the Times Herald-Record of Middletown, N.Y., and The Albuquerque Tribune in New Mexico.
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Comments
Tough to reach out to Hispanics once you deport them.
Posted by: RomanB | November 7, 2007 8:45 AM
RomanB, a clear majority of DEMOCRATIC voters also do not want illegal immigration, open borders, etc.
This "article" is such a piece of used toilet paper being passed off as legitimate journalism it's not even funny. In fact used toilet paper has more use than this trash.
Posted by: John D | November 7, 2007 8:59 AM
The American poeple overwhelmingly are against amnesty or drivers licenses for illegals.
We need to first secure our borders and enforce laws already on the books before creating socalled pathways to citizenship.
John McCains'sinking poll numbers are a story of what not to do on immigration.
If the Democrats led by liberals Harry Reid, Dickie Durbin and Nancy Pelosi approve illegal amnesty they will b soundly defeated in 08. It's already showing up in Hil's poll numbers today read the Drudge Report. Jerry White, Springfield, IL
Posted by: Jerry White | November 7, 2007 9:05 AM
There are definite ways of making it a "law and order" issue without some of the bitter rhetoric and names, but they have chosen not to do that. So you make choices, and suffer the consequences.
Posted by: Tom | November 7, 2007 9:08 AM
Just wait until next November. Republicans will be punished by their racism. There is an unprecedented drive of citizenship applications among Hispanics. Not a single one will ever vote Republicans because of the Nazi-sounding rhetoric of people like Senator Sessions. Oh, what a mistake the Republicans made-it will doom them to a number 2 status for a generation. They are fighting a losing battle: it is called demographics! Guess who will get the last laugh next fall!!!
Posted by: cohen | November 7, 2007 9:19 AM
This article doesn't really address the GOP's main problem with immigration.
There are two sides to the GOP:
1) Big business. They provide the money that the GOP uses to win elections. They need illegal immigrants, without them their products would cost more and they would lose business.
2) So called "value voters." They provide the votes. Many of these voters (but by no means all) are xenophobic. They don't like illegal immigrants because they think they are a threat to our culture (and many of them are just flat out racist).
Now the GOP needs the money big business provides, but they also need the votes of the "value voters." They are stuck trying to forge an alliance that is doomed to failure.
Usually the GOP walks in lock-step, but immigration makes the Republicans act like the Democrats. It is really quite interesting to watch.
Posted by: nisleib | November 7, 2007 9:36 AM
Johnny D:
But a majority of Democratic voters do not subscribe to the Tom Tancredo school of immigration reform - you know, send them all back - and instead prefer what the President endorsed. It was the Republicans who stabbed him in the back on that one.
The only thing that is toilet paper here is the space you wrote your post on. Just put your head back in the sand, like you do anytime there is bad news for the Republicans like this.
Or better yet, blame the messenger, not the message.
Posted by: BobinATL | November 7, 2007 9:37 AM
I guess it's time for the Daily Hate.
Posted by: JT | November 7, 2007 9:48 AM
So much for the Republican strategy. Now for the Democrat strategy: (1) Automatic citizenship for illegals; (2) Driver's licenses for illegals which can be used for boarding airliners and voting; (3) Amnesty for all who entered the country illegally; (4) Withdrawal of border checks to allow as many illegals as possible to enter the country and compete with American citizens for jobs; (5) Free college tuition for illegals; (6) Free medical care for illegals; and (7) Access to all of America's public welfare programs. Voila: Millions of new Democrat voters.
Man, those Republicans just don't know how to do it.
Posted by: Juan | November 7, 2007 10:02 AM
This is another joke. We can't even secure our own borders yet our Army is thousands of miles away in a foreign land. Which is more important? Our border or Iraqi's border? Geez. . .
We just need to take three easy steps to Illegal immigration:
1. Secure our borders. More fence and border patrols. Automated cameras and detection system.
2. Temp ID's with 3-5 year limit for those who are already here. Amnesty, as wrong as it might sound; Let's be honest, we can't deport 12 million Illegals. It would cost us billions. But we can deport all illegal aliens who are violent criminals: Drugs, Gangs, murderers, rapists, ect. . .
3. Pressure Mexico's Elite to monitor their borders and help them promote their economy along the border to reduce desperate people from crossing.
But we can't have #2 and #3, without #1 implemented. If we implement #2 and #3, there will be just another flood and new wave of illegals.
Balanced. Fair. And the right thing to do. Which none of the Republicans want to do so why would Hispanic voters would want to vote for them?
Honestly, based on the 2006 Election, the Hispanic Votes made little or no difference. Looking at the national maps, the Red States were still pretty red and the Blue States were still pretty blue. Which means John D. and Springfield don't have to worry too much. They can relax and lower their xenophobia fever. Your neighborhood isn't going Hispanic anytime soon.
Posted by: Lou | November 7, 2007 10:41 AM
I once knew a young man, 16 years old, who got busted for marijuana. He told the judge that he thought the law against pot was stupid, so he should not be punished. The judge replied, "The law may well be stupid, but in this country the law is the law, and if you don't like it, you work to change it, you do not just break it." He got two years probation. He is now 21 and in prison. I guess he did not understand.
If this country does not enforce a law, immigration or other, our justice system is failing. It seems that recent administrations, not just the Bush administration, are picking and choosing which laws to enforce and which to ignore. Justice for all is on the line here.
I personally believe we need immigrants. They are good for the country. However, we need to enforce all of our laws. We cannot pick and choose which ones to enforce, or they all become meaningless.
Posted by: San Miguel | November 7, 2007 10:55 AM
Roman,
So are you saying that American political parties should be reaching out to Hispanics who should be deported – meaning those who are here illegally? They can't vote. And, no one can deport someone who is in the country legally or who is a citizen. So perhaps you'd like to explain your comment.
And Lou, I agree with you. Unfortunately, we are caught at an impasse here – on one side, are those who refuse to recognize we can't deport everyone who is here and blame Mexicans for everything wrong with America. And on the other side are those who are salivating at the prospect of turning all who are here illegally into voters. So they are not in favor of deporting anyone and come up with bogus excuses to mask their position, saying things like "The economy will be ruined" and "Immigration raids traumatize children."
Posted by: JB | November 7, 2007 11:07 AM
"Immigration raids traumatize children."
Posted by: JB | November 7, 2007 11:07 AM
Yep, the Republicans have to stop saying that.
http://www.cato.org/pub_display.php?pub_id=4723
http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0004/23/sm.09.html
"The chilling picture of a little boy being removed from his home at gunpoint defies the values of America."
George W. Bush April 22, 2000.
Posted by: AJF | November 7, 2007 11:24 AM
JB:
LOS ANGELES (Reuters) - The American Civil Liberties Union sued the U.S. government on Monday over what the rights group said was the wrongful deportation of a developmentally disabled U.S. citizen who is now missing in Mexico.
ACLU spokesman Michael Soller said 29-year-old Pedro Guzman was serving a 120-day sentence in a Los Angeles jail for trespassing when he was deported to Tijuana, Mexico, on May 10 or May 11 for an alleged immigration violation.
The group's suit filed in U.S. District Court seeks to have the deportation order suspended and for the U.S. government to help locate Guzman.
Guzman, who was born in Los Angeles and lived about 70 miles north in Lancaster with his mother, could barely read and write, Soller said. He did not know his phone number and kept his brother's telephone number on a piece of paper.
Posted by: Cheryl | November 7, 2007 11:54 AM
The "Americans want less illegal immigration" is a poorly made argument and a thin hope to hang on. As recently as the end of this past September, 60% of Americans approved of the idea of illegals gaining legal status via fines and waiting periods. Only 35% were against it. When asked which was more important, border security or dealing with the immigrants in America now, the polls are split with 25% saying security, 25% saying existing and 50% saying both are equally important.
Of course people want less illegal immigration. But that's only a small part of the immigration story.
Posted by: Jeff | November 7, 2007 12:11 PM
This is what happens when you surrender reason to fear:
http://www.cnn.com/2007/US/11/07/border.fence/index.html
You get conned.
Posted by: AJF | November 7, 2007 12:14 PM
Juan and the others who make his ridiculous claim clearly have never voted in their life. A driver's license does not give you the right to vote. If it did sixteen year olds would be voting for Britney Spears, Hannah Montana, or Dale Earnhardt, Jr. You may have to show your drivers license or state picture ID but they match your name address and signature with the information on file in the voter registration log. Stop lying. A driver's license gives you a license to operate a motor vehicle, period!
Posted by: jethro | November 7, 2007 12:19 PM
Drug raids traumatize children too.
Posted by: San Miguel | November 7, 2007 12:42 PM
Conservative commentator Michael Medved has often opined about the problem the GOP will face in wooing Hispanic voters if the GOP takes a pro-deportation stance. Illegal alien's children born in the U.S are citizens of this country which gives them the right to vote, and there are plenty of them. Deportation of family members isn't going to be lost on them at the voting booth.
Another mantra from the GOP that isn't exactly
received well by legal Hispanic voters is the call
to protect our culture - part of the "protect our laws, borders and culture" catchphrase.
This is somewhat vague as to what they wish to protect, but clearly less vague in what group it's directed at - Hispanics. This spells another problem for the GOP at the polls.
I agree with Medved that these are very real problems the GOP must face if the party does not wish to loose more ground at the polls.
John D. and other like minded people are whistling past the graveyard if they think the GOP can ignore these realities and remain
a relevant, competitive force in future elections.
Posted by: johnf | November 7, 2007 1:44 PM
Does not matter what part of the world you originate from and enter America with THE PEOPLES permission, you are welcome! Whether your from Asia, South America, Mexico, Europe, Pacific Rim or any country, if you entered these shores and were inspected for contagious diseases, your background checked and approved for a Green Card you are Welcome?
If you broke the Sovereignty laws of the Immigration, then you must be deported. No exceptions; no options. Becoming a permanent resident is a privilege by the U.S. Taxpayer, it is not an invitation for free-loading off the American people or even taking cheap labor jobs from pariah employers. You can even self-deport or leave by Attrition, as is happening in Arizona, Georgis, Oklahoma and soon Kansas. More states will follow the new harsh immigration laws enacted. It is time to go HOME? YOU ARE NOT WELCOME!
For answers go to numbersusa!
Posted by: Brittanicus | November 7, 2007 2:21 PM
"THEY TRIED BUT THEY COULD'NT DO IT" THEY TRIED BUT THEY COULD NOT CONSOLIDATE OUR NATIONALITY AS WE KNOW IT"
People need to understand that what they attempted to do was to have all nationalities under the control of one person. SECRETARY OF HOMELAND SECURITY. No really a nationality coup in America.
Now we are still a free nation of people and person(s) alike.
Hopefully with the impeachment of Dick Cheney or the attempt to show due cause, it will cause more people to take a look at S BILL 1639 and it's true implications.
IMMIGRATION IS EASY IN AMERICA. JUST AS EASY AS IT WAS WHEN AMERICA CONSOLIDATED IT HATES TOWARDS BLACKS.
WE MARCH, WE WIN.
AMNESTY IS REALY AND REALTY IS AMNESTY. WHY HAVE A SECULAR ETHNO WAR IN THE STREETS OF AMERICA. WHEN WE CAN RECOGNIZE THE PEOPLE, OR PERSON(S) THAT HAVE SHARED IN THE AMERICAN DREAM, PARTICIPATED LEGALLY IN THE STREETS OF AMERICA AND HAVE BUSTED THEIR BUTT TO MAKE THE DOLLAR A DOLLAR AND A FAMILY A FAMILY.
OH PEOPLE WILL GO HOME. BUT THAT IS A GOOD THING, BECAUSE THAT IS WHERE FAMILIES ARE. AT HOME UNLESS YOU ARE IN DICK CHENEY, GEORGE BUSH, AND DAVID ADDINGTONS FIFTH REICH AMERICAS!
Posted by: Roger Morris | November 7, 2007 2:55 PM
Brittanicus,
You are clueless and full of rhetorics. You don't even look at the end results and the big picture.
I can't wait for the next census for Georgia, Oklahoma, Kansas and the rest of these Red States; and any States that want to follow the slippery slope.
They will only realize when things get bad in their counties and wonder why? I'll tell you what will happen: Those States will lose Federal dollars when the new census takes place i 2010. Federal dollars are based on overall population in your area. Regardless, if they are illegals or legals.
What does this mean to Red States? It means blue state like Illinois, New York and California should be taking more bacon home. Have fun drinking dust; and paying higher property taxes to fund your local government.
Posted by: Lou | November 7, 2007 3:04 PM
The continuing marginalization of the Republic party continues apace. You have to love the karma. They've gone from the 'permanent majority' to a regional party comprised of the old Confederacy in less than 7 years. Congrats wingnuts!
Posted by: weinerdog43 | November 7, 2007 4:01 PM
"John D", the Tribune clearly has its uses.
For example, you can use it to line a bird cage.
Posted by: Bruce | November 7, 2007 5:54 PM
The conservative response show just how racist they are & or clueless.
In Chicagoland, there's thousands of illegal immigrants that are from Eastern Europe, but they never, ever mention this group of people. It's all build the fence, more border patrols, install cameras, let the minutemen men do their thing, blahblahblah.
And, like, duh, of course illegal Hisapnics can't vote; but millions of their relatives, friends, next of kin, etc. can vote. You think you're going to reach them with a campaign slogan like, "Yes, we target illegal Mexican immigrants for deportation, you probably personally know at least one or two. Look how strong we are, vote republican!"
Unless republicans can hire ChoicePoint in each state, come a year from now, you'll all be toast.
Posted by: RomanB | November 7, 2007 7:14 PM
I'm former republican who left the party after the word "illegal" became code for Hispanic. Now many have just dropped illegal altogether and talk about how Hispanics are "ruining the country". If you don't believe go to any conservative site nowadays and you'll see people bashing Hispanics.If a conservative Hispanic gets nominated as the head of an agency or as a judge, they are immediately attacked by conservatives. I'm sorry but in 08 if the republicans nominate another person who panders to Hispanic bashers, I'm not only voting for a democrat, I donating money and time.
Posted by: Staci | November 7, 2007 8:08 PM
Mr. Gibson:
Mel Martinez was not "smuggled" into the country through a Catholic church Program. The United States issued "Visa-Waivers" for Cuban youths under 18 to enter the country LEGALLY. The Cuban government watched in approving silence as 14,048 children left the country by commercial airplane in a period of 22 months.
Yvonne M.Conde
author
"Operation Pedro Pan-the Untold Exodus of 14,048 Cuban Children"
Posted by: Yvonne Conde | November 7, 2007 9:06 PM
Oh please, lets not be spoiled sports. We already taught them to fly. Now, lets teach ‘em to drive. Get 'em out of the "shadows." After all, Leon Panetta would be the first to remind us that immigrants paved these roads. "This is a complicated issue," says Bill Clinton. But how "complicated" really is illegal immigration? Besides, what could go wrong? Does anybody remember that two of the 9-11 hijackers visas were renewed, six months after they died in those attacks?
What could possibly happen? And why does the incidence of Al Qaeda flight students, trained at the University of Bill Clinton, remain a non-issue? Einstein said, “The world is a dangerous place to live; not because of the people who are evil, but because of the people who don't do anything about it.” The silence is deafening: http://theseedsof9-11.com
Posted by: Peggy McGilligan | November 7, 2007 11:17 PM
"RomanB, a clear majority of DEMOCRATIC voters also do not want illegal immigration, open borders, etc.
This "article" is such a piece of used toilet paper being passed off as legitimate journalism it's not even funny. In fact used toilet paper has more use than this trash."
Indeed!! That is why the Democrats crossed over and voted for GOP in the Virginia elections and helped them expand their majorities in the Virginia Senate. The fact that you are writing these garbage just a few hours after the GOP failed to make the illegal immigration the issue in Virginia talks more about your ignorance than the toilet paper of RomanB
Posted by: George Chell | November 8, 2007 8:16 AM
RE: The American Civil Liberties Union sued the U.S. government on Monday over what the rights group said was the wrongful deportation of a developmentally disabled U.S. citizen who is now missing in Mexico.
I propose to find, detain and DEPORT all of these xenophobic hillbillies and numbersusa fanatics. Their hate filled retoric does border mental instability. Why not round them up and deport them all to Mexico, as it seems to be the only "other" country they know of. Their spirit is more un-American than that of the poor "illegals" who went through 9 cicles of hell just to get here, for the right to clean your toilets. Shame on you, Republicans! Every last one of you, xenophobic sons of ---- will soon lose their jobs!
Posted by: Tony | November 8, 2007 8:53 AM
For all you pro illegal
immigrant people,
please consider the fate
of San Diego, and the
fact that services to
illegal aliens cost over
$100 MILLION dollars a
year just in the county
Money that should have
been going to our fire
fighters, police and
fire equipment . They
are taking over here &
believe me, there
attitude for the
most part, is anything but
grateful or pro American.
Also consider that
over 90 hospitals and
health clinics in
the State of California
have gone bankrupt or
are about to mainly
because illegal and legal
immigrants use them as
primary health facilities
and are required to pay
NOTHING! 90!
If you think this can't
happen in your State -
think again. The only
sure way to stop illegal
immigration is to
enforce the borders &
STOP HIRING THEM.
Posted by: Chelsea Walker | November 12, 2007 9:58 PM
The Republicans had their chance for about 6 years to make a statement that the republican party would take care of the American people and they really showed they don't care by their non-actions and clearly directed actions against inmigrants. However, it is not only what Republicans say; it is also what they don’t say. Republicans have been filibustering everything that comes up in the Senate.
But, it is also undeniable that the most vicious, the most wretched, the most offensive, the most revolting, the most ruthless, the most vilifying, the most repulsive attacks have come and are still coming from Republicans.
Just a few examples to illustrate it.
1) Sensenbrenner wanted the criminalization of these people.
2) Newt Gingrich, Former House speaker, who coined Spanish as the Language of the gheto
3) Fred Thompson just slammed Cubans, suggesting that they come to America not in search of freedom, but to bring “suitcase bombs.”
4) Dana Rohrabacher in his speeches is warning “the end of America as we know it”.
5) Tancredo, his motto: "a scourge that threatens the very future of our nation."
6) J.D Hayworth, not reelected, but still instilling hate. No comments.
For many Republicans, the following is an undeniable truth: “illegal immigrant” = equals “all Hispanics” = “terrorists” = “Muslims” an statement so widely and shameless repeated over and over.
By your actions, you shall be judged.!
Posted by: memo | December 1, 2007 11:57 AM