by Jim Tankersley
Bored waiting for actual vote tallies to roll in from Pennsylvania? Tired of watching talking heads squabble on television? Us, too.
As a diversion, we suggest cracking open some exit polls for clues to how tonight might end up.
Start with these, from the Ohio primary on March 5. Clinton won it by 10 percentage points. Note how she swept Obama across income and gender lines and kept it close among one of his traditional support bases, college graduates.
Now check out these Pennsylvania numbers. Remember, the neighboring states share similar demographics. In many ways, the exit polls show similar results in both primaries. But there are some differences that could be key to tonight's margin.
For starters, Obama is winning among men in Pennsylvania, after losing them in Ohio. He's widened his already enormous lead among black voters and eked ever-so-slightly farther ahead among college grads. It's not a huge shift - certainly not enough to suggest, based on these polls, that he is carrying the state tonight - but it could be enough to keep the final result in single digits.
Which brings us back to one of tonight's first questions: What makes a win a "win" for Clinton?
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Comments
May want to take one post down.
Posted by: Jim--you posted this twice | April 22, 2008 8:56 PM
Camp Obama has gone outta their way ticking off normal, middle aged women.
Supporters calling women and men who aren't for him racist don't help.
The problem is that the people who are pro Hillary now are ticked off royally. The media spin and unfairness:
1. hillary never woulda gotten away with having a radical friend like Ayers--her career woulda ended
2. media 'repair' of the flipoff via MSNBC's 'deft' editing and misleading anchor copy
3. Comedy shows like Colbert Report and Daily Show piling on and biased for Obama
4. Mike Moore and Move On and even Free press===
the women who support Hillary are just plain ticked.
And they're NOT gonna vote for Barack in the Fall.
There's gonna need to be some butt kissing and Mike Moore ain't the one to do it. Michelle Obama isn't gonna do it.
Even if Barack's the candidate, it's hard to see the women the Obama camp ticked off winning the Fall race.
Posted by: Numbers Ain't all | April 22, 2008 9:01 PM
Numbers Ain't all writes " the women who support Hillary are just plain ticked. And they're NOT gonna vote for Barack in the Fall." So if they don't vote for Barack and he is the dem's choice, then who will they vote for (1) McCain (2) Nader (3) (Libertarian or (4) no one. This is the ultimate result of the Women's Sufferage movement. You go girls! Hand the white house to 4 more years of republican rule.
Posted by: Gender Stupidity | April 22, 2008 10:37 PM
Swamp reporter Jim Tankersley headlines PA exit polls. I thought after the New Hampshire exit poll debacle everybody of any sense vowed to ignore these polls.
Posted by: Bruce | April 23, 2008 12:15 AM