Pennsylvania results live blog

by Jim Tankersley

Update, 9:07 p.m.

Hillary Clinton won a solid but not overwhelming victory in the Pennsylvania primary tonight, exit polls and television networks projected, adding another dose of ambiguity to an already muddled Democratic presidential campaign.

Clinton beat rival Barack Obama in this, the largest remaining delegate trove on the Democrats' primary calendar. A total of 158 pledged delegates were at stake in Pennsylvania - along with the attention of the remaining uncommitted "superdelegates" who will likely decide the nomination.

The vote capped six weeks of increasingly harsh exchanges between the candidates, culminating with a barrage of attacks this week, and a series of dust-ups that marred each candidate. Clinton was forced to explain how she overstated the dangers of a trip to Bosnia she took as First Lady. Obama dealt with fallout from inflammatory statements made by his pastor and his own description of "bitter" Pennsylvania voters who "cling" to God and guns in the face of economic woe.

Exit polls showed Clinton winning among women, whites, union members, late deciders, gun owners, senior citizens, frequent churchgoers and voters earning less than $50,000 a year. They showed Obama winning among men, voters with college degrees, those younger than 45 and newcomers to the Democratic Party. He continued his dominance among African Americans, winning their votes 9 to 1.

Obama struggled with blue-collar, white male voters - a group Clinton courted with aggressive attacks on Obama's "bitter" comments and with surrogates including her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell. Clinton won nearly two in three of those voters, exit polls suggested.

The polls showed voters prized "change" over "experience," that they overwhelmingly believe America is in recession and that the economy weighs heaviest on their minds as an electoral issue. Two in three voters said Clinton attacked Obama unfairly.

The polls also showed that race appeared to have worked against Obama in some parts of Pennsylvania and that gender worked in favor of Clinton.

Left unclear was whether Clinton would achieve the necessary margin to convince uncommitted superdelegates her victory was large enough to change the dynamic of the race. Both campaigns sought during the day to lower their own expectations and raise the bar for their opponents.

"Sen. Obama's supporters - and many pundits - have argued that the delegate "math" makes him the prohibitive frontrunner," the Clinton campaign wrote in a memo to reporters. "They have argued that Sen. Clinton's chances are slim to none. So if he's already the frontrunner, if he's had six weeks of unlimited resources to get his message out, shouldn't he be the one expected to win tonight? If not, why not?"

Obama's campaign contended Clinton needed a "blowout" win: "Tonight's outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary," the Obama campaign said in a memo, adding later: "We expect that by tomorrow morning, the overall structure of the race will remain unchanged--except for the fact that there will be 158 delegates off the table."

Update, 8:55 p.m.

With 3 percent of precincts reporting and exit polls in the can, Fox News just became the first network to call Pennsylvania for Hillary Clinton. NBC News was close behind.

It's little surprise. We're all still waiting to see how the margin shakes out.

Update, 8:38 p.m.

Bored waiting for actual vote tallies to roll in from Pennsylvania? Tired of watching talking heads squabble on television? Us, too.

As a diversion, we suggest cracking open some exit polls for clues to how tonight might end up.

Start with these, from the Ohio primary on March 5. Clinton won it by 10 percentage points. Note how she swept Obama across income and gender lines and kept it close among one of his traditional support bases, college graduates.

Now check out these Pennsylvania numbers. Remember, the neighboring states share similar demographics. In many ways, the exit polls show similar results in both primaries. But there are some differences that could be key to tonight's margin.

For starters, Obama is winning among men in Pennsylvania, after losing them in Ohio. He's widened his already enormous lead among black voters and eked ever-so-slightly farther ahead among college grads. It's not a huge shift - certainly not enough to suggest, based on these polls, that he is carrying the state tonight - but it could be enough to keep the final result in single digits.

Which brings us back to one of tonight's first questions: What makes a win a "win" for Clinton?

Update, 8:20 p.m.

The Associated Press reports that race appears to have worked against Obama in some parts of Pennsylvania. According to exit polls, the AP says"

"About one in five voters said the race of the candidates was among the top factors in their vote. About as many said that about the candidates' gender. White voters who said race was a factor supported Clinton over Obama by 3-to-1, while whites who said race wasn't a factor divided between Clinton and Obama more evenly. But race and gender played out as factors in very different ways, with Obama's race apparently a negative for him among white voters, while Clinton's gender was a positive factor for her among men and women who said it contributed to their votes. Those who said gender was a factor actually tended to favor Clinton, while those who said gender wasn't a factor tended to favor Obama."

AP also tackles the "bitter" question:

"Remember those rural Pennsylvanians who Obama called bitter? Well, rural Pennsylvanians, who are overwhelmingly white, favored Clinton over Obama by similar margins to suburban voters, while Obama won among urban Democrats. But while more rural Democrats thought Clinton was in touch them than Obama, the majority still felt Obama was on their wavelength.

Update, 8 p.m.

Polls just closed across Pennsylvania. Cable networks have declined to call the race based on exit polling, declaring it "very close." Probably not the result Clinton was hoping for - at least right away.

Just-released exit polls posted on MSNBC.com showed Clinton winning among women, whites, union members, senior citizens, late deciders, gun owners, frequent churchgoers and voters earning less than $50,000 a year. They showed Obama winning among men, voters with college degrees, those younger than 45 and newcomers to the Democratic Party. He continued his dominance among African Americans, winning their votes 9 to 1.

Obama struggled with blue-collar, white male voters - a group Clinton courted with aggressive attacks on Obama's "bitter" comments and with surrogates including her husband, former President Bill Clinton, and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell. Clinton won nearly two in three of those voters, exit polls suggested.

The polls showed voters prized "change" over "experience," that they overwhelmingly believe America is in recession and that the economy weighs heaviest on their minds as an electoral issue. Two in three voters said Clinton attacked Obama unfairly.

Update, 7:03 p.m.: The expectations spin

What exactly is a win in Pennsylvania?

On this Earth Day, thousands of trees died to carry speculation on that question to front porches across America. CNN is currently asking viewers if Hillary Clinton, the wire-to-wire favorite in Pennsylvania, should drop out if she wins the state by less than 10 points.

Campaign strategists for Clinton and rival Barack Obama penned detailed memos today on the subject, each attempting to lower the bar for "victory" for their candidates and raise it for their opponents. Neither skimped on the dramatics. Obama's campaign said Clinton needs a "blowout" win tonight. Clinton's campaign actually put the word "math" in quotation marks when discussing the "delegate 'math'" that shows Obama leading the race.

Some quick facts before the spin: Clinton has never lost the lead in state opinion polls. Obama has eroded her advantage in recent weeks, in which time he's outspent Clinton massively on the air. Clinton expects to win big in rural areas. Obama expects to carry the major cities.

A total of 158 pledged delegates are up for grabs tonight, but there's a second bloc likely riding on these results - the still-undecided superdelegates who are Clinton's best hope for the nomination. The spin you're about to read is meant for them, and for the campaign donors Clinton in particular needs to pony up to sustain her campaign after today.

Clinton's argument is this, from her campaign's memo to reporters: "(A)fter the Obama campaign's "go-for-broke" Pennsylvania strategy, after their avalanche of negative ads, negative mailers and negative attacks against Sen. Clinton, after their record-breaking spending in the state, a fundamental question must be asked: Why shouldn't Sen. Obama win?

"Sen. Obama's supporters - and many pundits - have argued that the delegate "math" makes him the prohibitive frontrunner. They have argued that Sen. Clinton's chances are slim to none. So if he's already the frontrunner, if he's had six weeks of unlimited resources to get his message out, shouldn't he be the one expected to win tonight? If not, why not?"

Obama's argument, from his campaign memo, is this: "Behind in delegates and sporting a 14-30 primary record (not good enough even to make the playoffs in the NBA Eastern Conference), the Clinton campaign needs a blowout victory in Pennsylvania to get any closer to winning the nomination. Even President Clinton said that only a "big, big victory" will give her the boost she needs...

"Tonight's outcome is unlikely to change the dynamic of this lengthy primary. Fully three quarters of the remaining delegates will be selected in states other than Pennsylvania. While there are 158 delegates at stake in today's primary, there are 157 up for grabs in the Indiana and North Carolina primaries two weeks from today. We expect that by tomorrow morning, the overall structure of the race will remain unchanged--except for the fact that there will be 158 delegates off the table."

We're an hour away from polls closing. Set your own bar in the comments section: What constitutes a win?

Original post:

In the past six weeks, America lost 80,000 jobs (and counting). The dollar fell five percent against the euro. China suppressed protests in Tibet and endured protests of its Olympic torch relay worldwide. The Philadelphia Flyers, Philadelphia 76ers and Pittsburgh Penguins qualified for the playoffs - and they're all still alive.

In six weeks - more time than it takes to stage some entire British elections - Hillary Clinton "misremembered," and re-remembered, a not-so-precarious landing in Bosnia. Barack Obama's pastor leapt from YouTube to the national news; Obama himself delivered a widely praised speech on race relations and a widely panned line about "bitter" voters who "cling" to God and guns.

Six weeks have seen Clinton open a lead as large as 25 percentage points over Obama in Pennsylvania opinion polling - and they've seen that lead shrink to single digits. They've seen the Democratic presidential candidates shatter state spending records on television ads. They've seen Obama bowl a 37 and Clinton down a whisky shot.

Today, mercifully, they're over. For the first time since March 5, voters headed to the polls. Turnout is reportedly high.

Pennsylvania's vote will allocate 158 pledged delegates to the Democratic National Convention and undoubtedly influence scores of so-called "superdelegates" still sitting on the fence. It could go a long way to sorting out the Democratic nomination - or it could muddle it further. (If Iowa, New Hampshire, Super Tuesday and Ohio/Texas taught us anything, it's not to predict these things before all the results are in.)

One thing is for certain: Our long national waiting period is over. For one night, anyway.

Your Swamp correspondent is parked in front of a flat screen and a laptop, set to live-blog tonight's returns as they come in. Crack open a Rolling Rock, a Yuengling or the non-alcoholic beverage of your choice and join us.

We'll start with the early exit polls, per the Associated Press. They suggested Pennsylvania Democratic voters were predominantly white, female and worried about the economy. Almost half of their families earn less than $50,000 a year. Four in 10 counted a gun owner in their households. Only 1 in 10 said America is not in recession. Most made up their minds well in advance of today's vote.

CNN is reporting its exit polls showed gun owners and religious voters broke heavily for Clinton.

We'll have more exit polls, more analysis and of course, more results, as the night wears on. Polls close at 8 p.m. Eastern. Stay with us.