House Democrats top GOP in voter favor: The Swamp

Posted June 30, 2008 11:17 AM

by Frank James

Congress may be in extremely low repute right now, but it appears House Democrats run little risk of losing their majority status in November.

Gallup's pollsters report that while voters may be sick of Congress and telling anyone willing to listen that they want "change," they appear not to be about to take it out on Democrats in 2008 the way they turned against Republicans in 2006.

This is how Gallup reported the results of its Gallup/USA Today poll:

PRINCETON, NJ -- The Democratic Party is in a good position to retain its majority status in Congress this November. Democrats lead the Republicans by 51% to 40% in the party preferences for Congress among all registered voters, and by 52% to 42% among likely voters.

This is according to Gallup's "generic ballot" question, asking Americans which party's candidate they would vote for in their congressional district if the election were held today. The USA Today/Gallup survey was conducted June 15-19, 2008.

The Democrats' 11-point advantage among registered voters is slightly less than what Gallup found in mid-February -- at that time, the Democrats led by 55% to 40% -- however, it still puts them in a comfortable position heading into the fall.

House Republicans have tried to tie in voters' minds the record high oil and gasoline prices, referring to $4 plus gasoline as the "Pelosi Premium" in dubious honor of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a San Francisco Democrat.

But given Gallup's polling results, that line of attack doesn't seem to be sticking.

It's obviously good news for congressional Democrats who appear to be escaping both blame for the nation's economic troubles and voter unhappiness for not setting a clear endpoint to the Iraq War, a 2006 campaign promise. It means they may be able to add to their majority, further cementing their control, at least in the House.

But unless Senate Democrats can reach the point where they have 60 votes, enough to end the Republican ability to stop legislation in its tracks in that chamber, more Democratic House seats, wouldn't change the current dynamic on Capitol Hill.

And, of course, if Sen. John McCain, the all-but-official Republican presidential nominee wins the White House, a larger Democratic House majority could find its will as thwarted in the future as it has since January 2007 when Democrats gained control of the House.