Obama 15 points on McCain: Newsweek: The Swamp
The Swamp

"Barack finally has his bounce'' -- Newsweek. (Why this poll so different?)

Posted June 21, 2008 11:00 AM
The Swamp

by Mark Silva

It could be one of those earlier outliers.

Or it could be really bad news for John McCain.

But Newsweek magazine, reporting on the results of a survey run June 18-19, reports a 15-percentage point advantage for Barack Obama in the race for the White House.

"Barack finally has his bounce,'' Newsweek suggests of the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, who clinched the party's nomination within the past three weeks and has been looking for the bounce that might come with that.

The Illinois senator stands particularly strong among independents in this survey - favored by a margin of 48 to 36 percent over McCain, the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, among swing voters critical to the outcome of the vote on Nov. 4 Overall. Obama holds a 51 percentage point to 36-point advantage among all surveyed by Newsweek.

Now, this is a far greater advantage than other surveys have found since Obama clinched the nomination, with NBC News and the Wall Street Journal finding just a few-points edge for the Illinoisan.

The Gallup Poll in particular, which has been running a daily tracking poll and found Obama up seven points at one point since he silenced Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York in the Democratic primaries, portrays a virtual tie in the race with McCain: 46 percent Obama, 44 percent McCain.

There are screens and there are samples to consider in these surveys, too.

Newsweek surveyed 1,010 adults, registered voters, and the reported results carry a possible 4 percentage point margin of error. Gallup's daily track is the result of a three-day rolling average, with 2,640 registered voters represented in its latest, June 17, 19 and 20 survey, reported today carrying a possible margin of error of just 2 percentage points.

Newsweek suggests that it has found phenomenal dissatisfaction among voters, which also may account for Obama's apparent advantage. Its new survey finds that only 14 percent of Americans say they are satisfied with the direction of the country.

"That matches the previous low point on this measure recorded in June 1992,'' Newsweek's Michael Hirsh notes, "when a brief recession contributed to Bill Clinton's victory over Bush's father, incumbent George H.W. Bush. ''

"Overall, voters see Obama as the preferred agent of "change" by a margin of 51 percent to 27 percent,'' Hirsh adds. "Younger voters, in particular, are more likely to see Obama that way: those 18 to 39 favor the Illinois senator by 66 percent to 27 percent. The two candidates are statistically tied among older voters.''

There's also a party advantage working for Obama in all of these surveys, with more voters self-identifying with the Democratic Party. In the Newsweek survey, 55 percent call themselves Democrats or Democratic-leaning, while only 36 percent side with the Republican Party.

Newsweek concedes that "most other national polls have shown Obama with a 4 to 5 point lead over McCain so far'' and suggests that "random statistical error can explain some of the difference in poll results. "But the latest evidence of his gaining ground goes well beyond that margin,'' Newsweek concludes.

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Comments

The more Americans learn about these two candidates and their plans the more Barack Obama will become the obvious choice for most. Only the rich will benefit from a McCain presidency.


Keep on that right track, Senator Obama, we have a long way to go, all around the nation, before our stop at our White House. Ride that presidential train across America and offer your agenda for a more democratic America. We don't have time to bother with meaningless polls, we must let the American electorate know that your Presidency will see a fairer, more prosperous and a less imperialistic, if not absent altogether, America !! What a great day for America, a person rising up from less privileged classes and becoming the President of the United State !! What a great day for all of the children of America, as well as all Americans !!
SUPPORT OUR TROOPS, BRING THEM HOME, ALIVE AND WHOLE. NOW.


Why is this Newsweek poll so different from the others?

Simple. It's Newsweek. Which rivals the Swamp as a wholly owned subsidiary of the DNC and the Obama campaign.

Interestingly enough, the previous Newsweek Poll, taken a month ago, showed the two candidates tied:

05/21 - 05/22 Obama 46%, McCain 46%

As you can expect with a poll with results Obama might not like, the Swamp, and Mr. Silva, didn't report on the results.



Look out--the Baron Bruce and fellow Swamp Droogs will soon pounce. Expect to hear the tired old MSM bias rant and the name Doukakis bantered about. Cons are certain they can SwiftBoat their way to the White House again.


oh really?


Just as a matter of history, Newsweek's poll at the same time in 2004 showed Democrat John Kerry with a comfortable lead on Pres. Bush (July 2004, 51 percent to 45 percent).

Newsweek (and the MSM) uses polls to INFLUENCE public opinion, not to REFLECT public opinion.


Impressive considering the rightwing smears and lies and spewed out daily on talk radio.


The Swamp seems to have chronic OCPD...Obsessive Compulsive Poll Disorder. Give it a rest already. Does everything need to have a score? I say this even though it's my chosen candidate who is on top of the numbers.


It's still early, but this is better news for Obama than it is for McCain. Donors don't want to give money to a losing cause. THAT is why this poll matters MOST.



While McCain has been sucking up to the far right by trying to be more like Bush, Obama has been talking with common people and addressing their concerns, hence the bounce. McCain can't do this because the far right doesn't care about the middle class.



Obama is leading because he cares about what is happening here at HOME in the USA, that's why he's going to be our next President...McCain wants to send him to Iraq just like all the other young American kids, maybe he's hoping a stray bullet will hit him, disgraceful and shameful on his part.


Just FYI, in 2000 and 2004, in the general election, party identification was evenly split 33% each among Dem, Repub & Indep. People may not vote for the current candidate in their party, but they rarely switch parties for identification purposes.

If you look at the internals of these Newsweek poll, you see "55 percent of all voters call themselves Democrats or say they lean toward the party while just 36 percent call themselves Republicans or lean that way." So basically, Newsweek over sampled Dems by 19%. So it's not suprising that Obama is ahead by 15%. In fact, it's surprising he is not up more in this poll.

I guess we'll see in November.


Newsweek polls have zero credibility. Ever saw one that didn't favor the Democratic candidate in an election. Of course not. It isn't part of the Newsweek agenda. Newsweek is an organ of the Democrat Party and its ilk. The magazine's subscribed distribution way, way down.


From one concerned citizen of U.S.A,

Dear American Voters, reporters, media. professionals, political parties, and presidential Nominees,

Hon. Senator McCain and Obama, besides each having many attributes and characteristics.
The critical differences between the two of these presidential presumptive nominees in my opinion are as under:

1. Presidential "Temperament and Caliber".
2. Little Washington "insider Versus outsider" experience.
3. "Vision and mission" for our nation future rather than past.
4. American policies, " first U.S.A Centric" than any other country [ ies ] centric.

In my professional opinion Senator Obama leads in all above qualities and attributes.

Senator Obama and his administration along with congress will address all the critical current and future domestic and foreign issues, challenges, and opportunities in coming years.

Let us remember and recite following concepts:

" Family, Friends, Fellows, Faith, Funds, Foundation [s], Fun, with Freedom & Fairness and without Fear, Favor, & Failure" . It applies to every citizen of our Greatgrand Nation.


Please stay involved, stay engaged, and stay informed. Please do not allow any seduction, deception, and or confusion by some partisan media and leaders effect your vote [ Psychological Terrorism ]..

Yours truly,

COL. [retd] A.M.Khajawall
Disabled American Veteran
Forensic psychiatrist, Las Vegas


PS: Please talk about the " Presidential Temperament And Caliber " of our presumptive presidential Nominees. We do talk about the "Judicial Temperament" of our Supreme Court Justices nominees and so far we have failed to talk about the " Presidential Temperament " of our presumptive presidential nominees. The " Presidential Temperament " is the ultimate and in my opinion only requirement of our president as that effects every living soul here and around the world.

Thanks again.


This is a TYPICAL Newsweek scam.

Allt he media was talking about how Obama was going to get this big post-Hillary bounce, and when he didn't good 'ole Newsweek comes through for him.

Here's what happens next. The other polls, will show a dead heat, and the liberals at that magaine that perpetuated this scam will tuck tail, and call it an outlier.

And it was...an OUT RIGHT LIAR.

Comical to say the least.


"Newsweak" is a Dem Party mouthpiece. Check out their contribution record. In the last 3 federal elections, 87.5% of contributions by people listing Newsweek as their employer have gone to Democrats:
http://www.opensecrets.org/indivs/search.php?name=&state=&zip=&employ=newsweek&cand=&c2008=Y&c2006=Y&c2004=Y&sort=N&capcode=3qtdf&submit=Submit


This poll is exciting for Obama supporters, even if it is the only one with such a high difference between the candidates. Bruce points out correctly that John Kerry also held a big lead in early polling. Democrats need to stay focused if they really want to win in the fall. No one seems to be able to lose as well with the cards so stacked in their favor than the Democrats in past elections. Let's hope a lesson was learned.


Obama worries me. He reminds me in many ways of Tony Blair before he came to power here in Britain. Blair too carried a bucketful of hopes dreams and visions, Blair too promised to change Britain. He did too, for the worse.

Beware of politicians promising change, change is not necessarily for the better.


I can't wait for the Republicans to start running all the TV adds where Hillary and Bill Clinton were ripping Obama! Lots of tape to look at to make some choice TV commercials. Obama showed his true stripes the other day, on public campaign funds, flipping, just like Reverend Wright said he would, "because he's a politician." The Washington Post was right to rip him and put him in his place. He's not special. He's a regular politician. Endorsed Todd Stroger over Forest Claypool ? Change ?


We need a moderate. We need McCain. There is no evidence Obama is a moderate. Exactly when has he reached across aisle to Republicans and received wrath from his party from doing so ? I agree with the Washington Post http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/06/obama_doesnt_bite_dog.html

SUPPORT OUR TROOPS. DEFEND FREEDOM. NEVER SURRENDER.


Obama lost all the north side wards in the city and Daley's 11 ward so you know this poll is B.S.


The last from Gallup(Today before 30 minutes) : Obama 46% - Mccain 44%

Rasmussen(befor eseveral hours): O 48% - M 43%

It's very very strange. Any explanation ?


Hey this is America (where the popular vote doesn't matter)!


Carved over front door of RNC:

"Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Enter Here".


It all boils down to one simple question: In Obama, will Americans elect a president whose entire career has been promoting hard-left, grievance politics in partnership with unrepentant terrorists, America-haters, racists and felons? The answer, of course, is no.


Newsweek is a liberal run publication (if you don't believe me, check out the background of the editors) I used to have a subscription, but I dropped it about a year a go, and will never subcribe to it again. The poll conducted by Newsweek is not valid because its readers are, for the most part, liberal democrats anyway. I would not put too much stock into the so-called "opinion poll" from these people.


Obama's ideas are terrible! Cut and run and expose America to terrorists and abandon the promises we made the Iraqis; don't drill for oil...tax like Jimmy Carter did (2 hour gas lines and no oil), everyone gets insurance (with exclusions, high premiums, no prexistings, thousands in copays..), HIS IDEAS ARE TERRIBLE.

He is a racist as is his wife.

He is another Todd Stroger/Daley/G Rod.

He lies and doesn't keep his promises (taxpayer funded campaign)

He is TERRIBLE.

How can you people be so dense?

So he's a great speaker.. so was Hitler. He's just another Hitler. He doesn't necessarily hate Jews..but he does hate white people.


The Newsweek poll is pretty much what everyone, including sensible Republicans, already suspected. As the candidates began to square off and McCain began to talk more to the electorate, then it was a forgone conclusion by most knowledgable people that Obama would spring far ahead; and not look back.

By Labor Day, Obama could be up by as much as 15%-20% points; in fact depending upon how the war the economy rallies over the 3rd quarter, then many people suspect that Obama has a legitimate shot at a 25% point lead. It is clear that many Republicans do not like McCain and most Democrats really like Obama; in fact it is not a stretch to say that quite a few Republicans like Obama. So In all honesty the only drama that really remains in this election is whether McCain can stop Obama from winning Arizona.


Electing Obama as President Of The United States would be the equivalent of appointing Jack Kevorkian as Director of The National Institutes Of Health. National suicide. Greg Neubeck


B Hussein Obama is not ahead by 15 points as DNC Newsweek and the driveby media say. They are in the tank for this guy with paper thin resume, lack of judgement, character flaws and he associates with smarmy white rascists, felons, terrorists you name it.
Don Fitgerald you drink Obama koolaid and you don't know what a socialist/ Marxist is or else you are one. Hope and change,and a uniter. Give me a break!
Obama will raise taxes by $1.3 trillion about $4,000 a taxpayer just hand your hard earned money to this corrupt politican voluntarily say it isn't so.
44 percent of taxpayers according to IRS figures pay no taxes at all so stop the tax cuts are only for the rich the top 5 percent of tax payers pay 50 percent of taxes. This means Obama will screw the middle class guaranteed. He talks loftily about investing in infrastructure with your hard earned tax dollars this guy isn't going to spend his money he' a liberal elitist Marxist.Wakeup America Obama is bad period. Go McCain drill and drill now refine and refine now and let the taxpayers keep our money it doesn't belong to Obama or Dickie Durbin!


The "Possum King" should be up 15 point in every poll, but he's not, and that's because most people don't really know who he is. Unfortunately for him, if he continues with the likes of his Great Seal of Obamaland gaffes and keeps backpedaling on issues like campaign finance, FISA and NAFTA, people will know who he is.


It's surprising that many consider McCain a "moderate"? He is a maverick in the GOP, but surely not a moderate. Staying in Iraq indefinitely and adding even more debt to the already $10 trillion (yeah $10 trillion), we are already in debt. I thought Democrats were spend, spend, spend? Well at least we only have several more months to go before the government correction, unless more fools vote for the McCain-Bush ticket, hell McCain might as well make Jeb Bush his running mate!


MR. D makes a very good point about Barack losing in Chicago north side wards and Daley's ward:

Barack never was a part of the Dem machine politics in Chicago.

He was regarded as too "good government" , too well educated, too academic, and too honest. As Margaret Thatcher might have said, he was not a guy "with whom we could do business" as viewed by the Dem machine.

However: he made an end run around them in 04. Then another end run around the Clinton machine in 08.

So that op ed by
Brooks in the NY Times is right about one thing:

Don't for a minute think Barack is weak, naive, soft, inexperienced, etc. etc.

He's tough as nails and focused like a laser. And the more pressure is applied, the tougher and more focused he is.

Note to Putin and Ahmadinejad: if you think you're going to be dealing with a naif, check with Jack Ryan and Hillary Clinton.

PS, MR. D. How did he do in the rest of that election?


OK,ornery

Yeah, your right just ask old Emil jones,he'll tell you the same thing!!!! Duh!!


Well, well. I see the Swamp Droogs have pulled out all their sock puppets today. They must be flush with some of that RNC cash--a little added incentive.

The Kevorkian crack is one of bruce's favorites (and lamest). He uses it over at Redstates.com all the time.

By scary Jerry's math, we can afford a $15 billion a month war indefinitely and give more tax cuts to the rich, more Republican voodoo economics.

Steve-- Oversampling? Maybe. Alternate explanation--Dub'ya has spoiled the "brand".

Mr. D(yslin). How many aliases do you have? How much does it cost to fill up a Murano?

Here's McCain's vision for America:

http://extras.sltrib.com/bagley/Archive.asp?Vol=content&Num=1


To the comment about Sen. Obama losing the North Side Wards? What are you talking about? The February Primary? It was a SWEEP for Obama on the North Side. I'm in the 49th and it went WAY more than big time for Obama...so did the 50th...and the 48th...so I have no clue what it is you might be smoking today!
Guess it is more fun making stuff up than actually looking at the results--available on line I might add.

Wow.


The poll is an outlier and a lie designed to help Obama.


Up by 15 points!!!!!!

Woooo Hoooooooo!!!!!

Start poppin' the champagne!!!!!!!



Newsweek is a crock. The Media is full of it also. They print what they WANT you to believe. I haven't talked to a person yet who says they're voting for Obama! Everyone thinks he's out of his mind and I agree. This man is NOT going to win by no means.


Funny how liberal polls always show the dems with the lead. You can ask questions in a way that makes the polls results bunk. As I suspect, the question probably was something like, if McCain had a heart attack, would you vote for him or Osame as the other dems? Or if the election were held today, John McCain picked a homosexual as his Vice President, who would you vote for? The poll probably threw out 15% of McCain answers. They probably use the FL Democrat way of counting the votes. They get a guy with big eyes and he looks at the votes and trys to decide if the voter really meant to vote for McCain.

What a joke. I would never read this rag magazine.

By the way. The polls showed John Kerry winning for months. And we all know how that turned out.


Where did "Newsweak" do their polling, among their own news room people or the congregation of Obama's old congregation?


This is just June 21 - more than four months to go before the general election. Lots of time and many more polls to go before the left-wing press can declare their candidate is a shoo-in. One can only hope that, all across America, the voters will be looking more closely at Obama. David Axelrod's candidate is now so tightly controlled by his handlers that it will be difficult considering that Obama refuses to participate with McCain in an open forum. But, he (Obama) is such a flip flopper, one can only hope he does.


For those whose comments here have strategically used Obama's middle name, Hussein, all I have to say is you disgust me. It's undeniable that you're attempting to create a psychological connection to Saddam Hussein, and to Islam in general. And it's completely ridiculous that you can label accusations of racism in the same breath. You're worse than a moron, and your way of thinking is an excellent example of what's wrong with America.


Whats the frequency?????????


Newsweek has 0 credibility - they are trying to become part of the story. Be careful what you wish for Dems, Obama has demonstrated that he will turn on his own mother to get what he wants - what's he going to do to you?


I never realized that Newsweek is an arm of the Democratic Party.
Holy crap. Probably funded by the DNC and federally matched funds. One question though, Seriously? I just don't understand this level of ignorance, at least in Chicago.
That is if the people writing these rants are actually from Chicago. They are probably on the RNC bankroll.


Dear wingnuts: You may have heard this election referred to as a "change election." What that means is that on the Wednesday after election day, you will all be changing your underwear once you see how your gang of incompetent, lying, thieving, fascist thugs have been thrown out of office by the American people. Lay your clean underwear out now!


What a laugh. Go down to the union hall, full of Democrats, and do a secret poll and see how many votes Obama gets.
The key word is secret. Which is what it will be when they get into the voter's booth. The only one with less credibility than Newsweek is the Trib for resulting such a flawed puff piece.


"NEWSWEEK", now there is a reliable news source...........not.


If anyone thinks McCain is a moderate, they need to get their head checked.

Hi Ron Fitzgerald!


Go to Newsbusters.org to find the real story. Of the people that were polled, over 65% were Democrats.

Go figure.


This election won't even be close. Obama will drop-kick McCain the same way Clinton body-slammed Dole when he was served up by desperate Republicans. When the debates start and the candidates are side by side, it will become PAINFULLY ovbious that McCain is NO MATCH for Obama. Why do you think they are focusing on such a non-issue, like WIVES? McCain will look like BARNEY FIFE when it gets down to the nitty-gritty, and the American people will see that he heeds to be kicked to the curb.


This election won't even be close. Obama will drop-kick McCain the same way Clinton body-slammed Dole when he was served up by desperate Republicans. When the debates start and the candidates are side by side, it will become PAINFULLY ovbious that McCain is NO MATCH for Obama. Why do you think they are focusing on such a non-issue, like WIVES? McCain will look like BARNEY FIFE when it gets down to the nitty-gritty, and the American people will see that he needs to be kicked to the curb.


Newsweek would come out with a poll showing Obama leading, even if they polled McCain's family.


To DON W. So, Obama's middle name is Hussein - if he is so ashamed of it, why does he not have his name legally changed?? I know I would. I believe he represents his name perfectly. He is bent on destroying America and taking away our freedoms. You'd better wise up you fool. This man is evil and dangerous. We'll never enjoy our life as we know it now if this horrid monster is elected.


You'd better wise up you fool. This man is evil and dangerous. We'll never enjoy our life as we know it now if this horrid monster is elected.

Posted by: Paul S. | June 22, 2008 9:08 AM

I love the fact this election is bringing out the haters in numbers. He is scared of a name....Boo! Hide under your bed dingbat....I can only hope he will be one of those who will leave the country if B. Hussein Obama...Boo...Boo wins the presidency.

bill "Hussein" r. Boo!


From the looks of this poll, there are signs that America is moving beyond its biases.

However, the 527's have not yet begun their work--and in the face of the study noted below, we have to wonder what will happen to this support in the face of such efforts.

From "Head of State"
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/06/three-in-ten.html

Sunday, June 22, 2008
Three in Ten

According to today's Post, three in 10 people, in an ABC News/Post Center survey, admit to race bias.

What this means:

All surveys are subject to what is called a "social desirability" bias. Therefore, if someone approaches you with a clipboard and asks you if you believe that exercise and a healthy diet are part of your daily routine, you are likely to answer "Yes"--even if you have been stopped on your way to fulfill at daily urge at the nearby Ben and Jerry's--because you want to be viewed in terms that you believe are socially desirable, rather than the more ugly and human truth.

Therefore, when three in 10 people admit to a race bias, we can be sure that the actual rate is higher.

This is especially true when we are dealing with a particularly repulsive characteristic like racism (more powerfully loaded for social desirability than, for example, age bias). Few will admit to holding the view--often, even to themselves.

As a result, the bias takes many different forms, beyond the blatant bigotry that one may think of when first asked the question.

One may think, for example, that they are not biased against race--just against a perceived "arrogance" that they have never stopped to consider that they allow for more easily in some people than others.

They may intellectualize their bias by creating a stereotype or straw man of the holder of unbiased attitudes--rather than of the target of their bias. This, I'm sure, was akin to focusing on the supposed intellectual naivety of the abolitionist 150 years ago, as a screen for their more essential perspective. We see the equivalent of this today--scan the blogs.

They might also want to believe that they are beyond such fearful, impulsive and banal reactions--congratulating themselves for the simulacrum of a reaction, in an act of self-deceptive and illusory personal consistency, likely to crack at the first powerful test, in a cloud of inarticulate (or unarticulated) and unexamined scattered doubts.

Cracking the crust of deep and hardened attitudes and taking a core sample has its own difficulties. Having the focus, persistence and courage to evaluate those attitudes in yourself, to an extent that you will allow them to change your behavior, rather than fading into the easy familiarity of the past, is a far greater challenge.

However, in the face of the all-too-familiar difficulties of the past 8 years, it is an imperative.

Just as the unexamined life is not worth living, the unexamined vote is not worth casting.

Cite:
Head of State
http://headofstate.blogspot.com/2008/06/three-in-ten.html


Wake up people, put your narrow thoughts behind you! The economy has all negative pointers to it and the Iraq quagmire is dragging us further down the toilet. Osama bin laden played Bush and Cheney for fools, knowing they would destroy our economy through a foolish war. Now 3 trillion dollars later, and no hope of ending soon, our money is heading to Iraq at 12 billion dollars a month. Even if McCain gets in, higher taxes are unavoidable! I don't care what McCain says! So, make your choice stay in Iraq = higher taxes, or get out of Iraq = higher taxes. You know the truth!


Pollsters are nothing more than a parasite on society. They are somewhat like consultants - couldn't find and retain productive employment so they created their own and then sold it to a certain segment of society whose only source of confidence is the 'positive spin' the pollster provides.

To illustrate how accurrate their 'scientific methods' are we only have to reflect back on the beginning of this primary when Hillary was a shoo in and John McCain was not even on the Republican radar.

One of their stellar selections, for those of us who are old enough to have been there and witnessed their 'accurrate" absolutes, was Dewey defeating Truman. Oh, that's right, Truman won.

The pollster's job is to manipulate and influence the vote with questions they frame to the desired result fo their client.

Just one more facet of the hypocrisy of the elections.


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