Obama-McCain virtually tied: Gallup: The Swamp
 
The Swamp
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With numbers like these it's going to be a long, hot summer.

Posted June 20, 2008 2:30 PM
Gallup June 20.gif

The Swamp

by Mark Silva

The second full week of the known contest for the White House ends with Barack Obama and John McCain in a virtual tie in national polling, according to the Gallup Poll's daily tracking.

Obama, the Democratic, junior senator from Illinois, had opened up a modest advantage over McCain, the Republican, senior senator from Arizona, after clinching the Democratic nomination early this month. Gallup isn't the only poll that showed "a modest bump'' for Obama, seven points up several days back. The pollsters working for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal found a similar spread, and announcers voiced surprise it wasn't wider.

The latest Gallup snapshot: Obama 46 percent, McCain 44 percent.

In a survey with a 2 percentage point margin of error, that's a virtual tie.

Which will make for a long, hot summer.

At the same time, in a race that will be fought in several states rather than on a national canvas, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute has found Obama holding advantages over McCain in three critical states: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The Gallup results come from surveys June 16-17 and June 19.

"In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now,'' reports Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport, "with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks.''

For more, see the Gallup Poll.

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Comments

There is no way that this point is right. Obama is up at least 8-10% point on McCain.


Perhaps everyone is becoming aware that the only change Obama is interested in is a change of administration. Otherwise, he's same old, same old -- only with a whole lot less experience.

He's a ruthless fraud.


At this point of the presidential campaign these polls mean nothing. We have not had either the Republican or Democratic Conventions yet. And November is almost five months off. In politics five months is eternity. Anything can happen in that time.


Citizen - Yes the polls are wrong, who did you poll to come up with that 8 - 10% lead and what is your margin of error?


The only hope for this country is that the more Obama opens his mouth that America sees him for the liberal, inexperienced democrat that he is. If he is elected to go along with the sorry democatic congress with a 12% approval rating America is doomed.


Just like Kerry ... the election is Obama's to lose... and he will lose it.


Bounce nullified. McCain is up at least 6%. See how easy it is for citizen to pull numbers from someplace near his chair? I can be like citizen, too.

The democrats convention is in less than 70 days. They are still $15 million short of a way to pay for it. I bet they stiff Denver for the rest of the money.


RFB-IL, my poll results are based on a 3-day sampling of 2,000 likely voters across the US (June 16 - 18). The results showed a 9% Obama lead with a 1% margin of error.


Obama will win no doubt.


The anti-Obama diatribes here have inspired me to contribute to his campaign again. For like-minded individuals, go to https://donate.barackobama.com/promise


Come on, people. Do you really think the American public is going to fall for "Carter-Round 2", because Obama is about as fresh as his peanuts. McCain by 4% in the General Election...Easy!


Citizen, who's the source of your poll? Did you call all 2,000 people yourself?


To Citizen: It is very early in the campaign and this polls, although great conversation pieces, mean very little. In 1976 Jimmy Carter came out of the Democratic Convention with a 33% lead in the polls over Gerald Ford. And that race turned into a tight election. In 1988 Michael Dukukis came out of the Convention with a 18% lead over Bush the Elder. And Bush won that race with a lot of votes to spare. Neither of the Conventions have been even held yet and November is a long way off in political terms. I suggest you sit back and enjoy the show.


As a McCain supporter who rarely votes Republican it is very gratifying to see that even while being outspent $25 - 1 by Obama- McCain is still tied with him. Just speaks to how strong of a candidate McCain is. Even the corrupt Bush didnt have the nerve to refuse public funding, and he was a fundraising machine as well. Same with Clinton. The Obama supporters want to cry about Bill and Bush corruption but even they were not so corrupt as to refuse public money. Clinton raised tons of money as well as easily could have raised double the $84 mill. Obama pulled a play straight from the Cook County playbook.


Funny that your donation link contains the word "promise" since it was Obama who promised the voters he would take part in the public financing system two years ago. Buyer beware of anything that man promises you.


There is alot of negativity on this thread... But I do agree that polls mean very little right now, especially since popular vote itself is essentially worthless; a state by state poll would be much more interesting.

I'm optimistic for Obama though, he's not amazing, but at least he's not Bush! McCain's policies are so close to those of Bush, it's a bit frightening. but hey I could be wrong, we'll see what the people think come November.


Depot Jim is right, they really don't mean much at this point in the game.

But to end the silly debate on who is leading whom, try this:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html


With each passing day, the "magic" of Obama is washing away and being replaced by the reality of a smug, smirking con man.


Poll say nothing. Obama's advantage is at least 8 % now and will increase more. Obama will win the election without any doubt.


Thank God for the wisdom of the general electorate- if all the bounce that Obama can generate is 2 points- John McCain, thank God, will be our next President.
This passionate, die hard, lifelong Democrat will be voting Republican for the 1st time-John McCain. Of course, I will vote Dem down the ticket
NO-BAMA 08 !


If America is attacked again, who would you want in the Whitehouse: Obama or Mccain?


"Even the corrupt Bush didnt have the nerve to refuse public funding, and he was a fundraising machine as well."

Vinny, you do understand that John McCain had the nerve to refuse public funding in the primaries after he has already entered the public funding system, don't you? You do understand that the FEC is investigating that as a violation of Federal election law, don't you? Care to expand on how corrupt that makes McCain?


A lot of sore republican losers posting here today, I see. If you want our country to go down the drain, you'll vote for McCain. McCain represents and will continue every one of Bush's failed policies (and this isn't conjecture, the man has said so himself -- McCain is just fine and dandy with the way things are going in this country today). Four more years of Bush policies will do this country in. If you want this country to come back loud and proud, you'll vote for Obama. Obama is the real deal, and that's why republicans hate him so much. To those who say "he has no experience," I say what did Bush and Cheney's experience get us? Into a big fat mess is where it got us in every way, and no one can argue with that (unless they're lying republican smear-mongers, of course). Vote for Obama and save this country! Obama is our only hope.


If America is attacked again, who would you want in the Whitehouse: Obama or Mccain?

Posted by: Joe | June 20, 2008 5:11 PM


Obama, hands down. McCain has an itchy trigger finger, and he doesn't care if the gun is aimed at the right person or not. He'll use any excuse to attack Iran, valid or not. The only difference between his foreign policy and Bush's is subtituting an "n" for a "q".


A lot of sore republican losers posting here today, I see. If you want our country to go down the drain, you'll vote for McCain. McCain represents and will continue every one of Bush's failed policies (and this isn't conjecture, the man has said so himself -- McCain is just fine and dandy with the way things are going in this country today). Four more years of Bush policies will do this country in. If you want this country to come back loud and proud, you'll vote for Obama. Obama is the real deal, and that's why republicans hate him so much. To those who say "he has no experience," I say what did Bush and Cheney's experience get us? Into a big fat mess is where it got us in every way, and no one can argue with that (unless they're lying republican smear-mongers, of course). Vote for Obama and save this country! Obama is our only hope.


The last time the Democrats portrayed their candidate as a peacenik running against a war mongering Republican they elected LBJ.

Mark my words. Obama will win and by 2011 America will fondly remember the day's of Bush. Whiner nation. If any of you think this is bad (which by most any yardstick it isn't)
then just wait. With the exception of the war most every malaise we suffer (gas prices, slowing economy) coincides with the Democratic control of Congress in Jan07. Take a look at a chart of crude prices. 50 bucks when the "no new sources of oil" party was elected.


Sorry Kurt, you can't blame what's going on in this country on the dems. It's a repub pres who's at the helm, so he and the repubs are to blame. As far as looking back at the last 8 years fondly, you'd be hard-pressed now, 4 years from now, or a single history book that will portray this time in our history as anything but shameful, awful, and disgusting. Bush, et al. are nothing but a bunch of con men who raped this country blind.


In another Gallup Poll result we readers will have to embarrass the DNC Swamp into running, public confidence in the Democrat-run Congress is at an all-time low:

"Only 12 percent of Americans now have confidence in Congress, the lowest percentage in the 35 years that the Gallup Poll has tracked the number.

Americans now view Congress less favorably any of the 14 other American institutions tracked by Gallup,.. more than twice as many have confidence in the presidency — 26 percent —

.... It remains to be seen whether the Democratic Party brand will find itself chained to the poor public view of the legislative branch. A recent analysis of ABC News-Washington Post polls found that in April the Democrats held a 24-point lead over President Bush as "the stronger leadership force in Washington." Today, it's a tie.

.. Today's 19 percent approval rating (a different measure than “confidence”) ties the record low of August 2007 and March 1992."

Barack Obama is a charter member of the Democrat-run Congress.


Here's were the 'Southern Strategy' kicks in.


"Just like Kerry ... the election is Obama's to lose... and he will lose it."
Posted by: Nic | June 20, 2008 3:22 PM

Any Democrat should be burying Any Republican in the polls, but Obama still can't break away from McCain.

In an act of desperation, The Messiah has rejected public funding in order to collect as much as possible from the usual Washington insiders' sources. I guess "Change" means "Business as usual", eh 'bots?


So what that Obama is not going the public funding route! I'm proud of Obama for not playing the McCain game of going back and forth about it (due to McCain's fear of losing without it). Public funding...whoever places their vote on this minuscule issue and reelects someone who is going to continue leading this country into a destructive path like his predecessor has no morals at all.


I just made my third contribution to the Obama campaign and some guy from New Jersey matched it. That's how public financing works, the Obama way. Nothing dirty or corrupt about it. When Obama wins in the fall it will because millions of ordinary Americans decided it was time to take our country back, and we gave our time and money to make it happen.


What irks me about Obama is his righteous indignatioin about attacks even when he is clearly wrong. A case of that was his recent comments regarding the WTC bombing as a model on how to deal with terrorists. The 9/11 commision cited the failures of that investigation extensively for keeping intelligence seperate from where it could be used most. Instead of admitting some mistake he used his standard Bush/McCain attack line. The guy is a puppet. Pull his string and out comes Bush/McCain McCain/Bush McBush, blah blah blah. People say he is so intelligent, however, I believe a lowly political wonk such as myself would poke holes in every argument he has one on one. I for one am already sick of his campaign and attacks which are no better than the new politics he supposedly espouses. Count me in the McCain camp!


a black man is raking in the dough and is about to be elected to the highest office in the land. this is just plain awesome.


Newsweek's Poll gives Obama a 15 point edge. Ultimately, WHO CARES?! Let's just get out and vote, America.


The polls go up and the polls go down.

The only poll that will really matter is the one on election day.

But I guess the media and the Democ"rat"ic elites will have to pull out all the stops to beat McCain.

But "The Gods" are on McCain's side. So be warned you "Elites" they who mess with "The Gods" end up like all the rest who opposed "The Gods".

VJ Machiavelli
http://www.vjmachiavelli.blogspot.com
ps Is Obama the Neville Chamberlain of our time ?


As stated the polls now carry little meaning, what is important is the substance of what the candidates say, what they have done, and how they are perceived. Remember, what people say means little, it is their actions that show their intentions.

Obama; Young, energetic, inexperienced, belongs to church of black racist, charismatic, articulate, poor foreign policy, naive understand of terrorist, naive understanding of how difficult it is to change Washington, well funded, has never managed anything yet is running for the chief executive job, questionable values and love of America, a pacifist by nature.

McCain; Older, experienced, the quintessential war veteran, hates war, has fought for change for twenty years, fearless, excellent understanding of foreign policy, temperamental, proven history of being able to work across party lines, as honest a man as God has made, despises liars and deceitful people, a true American, a good man in a storm.


It is important for these surveys to determine likely voters.There are many people who say they are supporting a candidate, but do not cast a ballot.


It is about time that somebody came out with accurate polling numbers. The electorate is beginning to see through Obama. Even ardent supporters and liberals are angry about Obama's flip-flop on FISA. The longer Obama runs the more we will see he is a typical political candidate only less so. I'm a lifelong Democrat too but I am voting McCain , the only choice. I'm going to also switch to independent.


"The anti-Obama diatribes here have inspired me to contribute to his campaign again."
Posted by: Mike | June 20, 2008 4:06 PM

-----

Mike, your donation to Obama has inspired me to make the maximum contribution to McCain's campaign, and to send an email to all my friends and family encouraging them to do the same. Thank you.


When is the Democtratic party going to bring up all of the stupid, insensative things Mcain has said over the years. In 1998, John McCain joked about Chelsea Clinton at a republican fund raiser. Is exact words were "Why is Chelsea Clinton so ugly? Because her father is Janet Reno.”

And lets not forget singing "bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran" to a beach boys tune.

Do we really want a president who is so rude, crude and hostile? Think about it.


I listen to attacks on Bush because of his so called failed presidency, I have listened to praise of Clinton because of his masterful stewardship of our economy in his term. The simple fact is neither Clinton nor Bush has any real control over the economy because that’s the way our free enterprise economy works. It is a wonderfully self correcting and low maintenance system, it was designed that way. The Federal Reserve oversees monetary policy without political bias, it was designed this way. The US President does not control the economy.

This nation has not suffered another attack after 9-11, the Al Quida is on the run, their back is broken, Osama bin Laden has had to hide underground for seven years because the US Armed forces are hunting him down, a murderous dictator was overthrown and his own people executed him due to US intervention, Islamic hatred for Christians is now seen as it should be as a clear and present danger, the surge is working, Americans hate to lose, we will win, we have struck at the heart of terrorism and thank God we have done something under President Bush.

If Clinton or Obama was President we would have done nothing, just as Clinton did nothing after the Cole, nothing after the barracks were bombed, after the embassy was bombed and countless other failing of a worthless Democratic President that had the good fortune to be in office during a strong economy.

We are now asked to consider a freshman congressman, a socialist and pacifist, a member of a black supremacy church and cult, a man that has managed and directed nothing, for the Chief Executive Job of these United States of America.

Obama has confessed to smoking crack, are we also in a drug induced stupor to even consider this candidate? Europe and the rest of world must be laughing their arse off at this circus. The US press needs to wake up and take responsibility for their actions and inactions. Liberalism, sound bites and smiling faces are great for sales, but leadership, realistic plans of actions, character and experience are what our nation needs.

Regarding Obama;

“The American Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money.”

Alexis de Tocqueville



Sure things are going to be hell during the next administation. Bush has screwed us for a long time to come.


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