House Dems to gain 10-20 seats: Analyst

by Matthew Hay Brown

More encouragement for House Democrats: The non-partisan Cook Political Report has updated its ratings in 28 congressional races - and 27 of the changes favor the majority.

In the latest Competitive House Race Chart, Cook report House editor David Wasserman has moved the races for the New York seats currently held by Republican Reps. Jim Walsh and Vito Fosella from the "Toss Up" column to "Lean Democratic."

Wasserman has moved 21 races from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican," and four more from "Likely Republican" to "Lean Republican" in the chart released last week. Under Cook report definitions, "Likely" means the race is not considered competitive at this point but has the potential to become engaged; "Lean" means it is considered competitive but one party has an advantage.

"While it's not likely that a majority of the races moved from 'Solid' to 'Likely' Republican will become competitive by November, the poor national climate for the GOP and the DCCC's unprecedented financial edge makes even very difficult districts for Democrats worth keeping tabs on," the report concludes.

Wasserman sees the Democrats expanding their House majority by 10 to 20 seats in November. Days before the 2006 elections, the Cook report predicted that Democrats would pick up 20 to 35 House seats; they ended up winning 31.

The only Democrat to see his position weaken in the current chart was Rep. Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania, under fire for the recent release of a 2007 video that showed him saying that Democrats had "sort of stretched the facts" the year before when they "implied" that they could end the war in Iraq if they were returned to the majority. Wasserman moved his race from "Likely Democratic" to "Lean Democratic."

The complete list of changes, showing the district, the incumbent and the new rating, follows.

AL-03 Mike Rogers Solid Republican to Likely Republican
CA-46 Dana Rohrabacher Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-08 Ric Keller Likely Republican to Lean Republican
FL-09 Gus Bilirakis Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-18 Ileana Ros-Lehtinen Solid Republican to Likely Republican
FL-21 Lincoln Diaz-Balart Likely Republican to Lean Republican
ID-01 Bill Sali Solid Republican to Likely Republican
IN-03 Mark Souder Solid Republican to Likely Republican
IA-04 Tom Latham Solid Republican to Likely Republican
KY-02 OPEN (Lewis) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
MN-02 John Kline Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NE-02 Lee Terry Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NV-02 Dean Heller Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NJ-05 Scott Garrett Solid Republican to Likely Republican
NY-13 OPEN (Fossella) Toss Up to Lean Democratic
NY-25 OPEN (Walsh) Toss Up to Lean Democratic
NC-10 Patrick McHenry Solid Republican to Likely Republican
OH-07 OPEN (Hobson) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
PA-03 Phil English Likely Republican to Lean Republican
PA-05 OPEN (Peterson) Solid Republican to Likely Republican
PA-11 Paul Kanjorski Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic
PA-15 Charlie Dent Solid Republican to Likely Republican
TX-07 John Culberson Solid Republican to Likely Republican
TX-10 Michael McCaul Solid Republican to Likely Republican
VA-05 Virgil Goode Solid Republican to Likely Republican
VA-10 Frank Wolf Solid Republican to Likely Republican
WV-02 Shelley Moore Capito Likely Republican to Lean Republican
WY-AL OPEN (Cubin) Solid Republican to Likely Republican