by Jill Zuckman

Sen. John McCain's campaign is out with a new television ad that tries to wrap rising gas prices around his rival, Sen. Barack Obama.

"Who can you thank for rising prices at the pump?" the announcer asks. In reply, the answer is chants of "Obama, Obama," clearly taken from one of the Democrats' larger rallies.

In another dig at Obama's broad-brush message, the announcer instructs voters "Don't hope for more energy, vote for it. McCain."

In response, the Obama campaign laid responsibility for the oil crisis at McCain's feet.

"John McCain said recently that 'our dangerous dependence on foreign oil has been thirty years in the making, and was caused by the failure of politicians in Washington.' As someone who's been in Washington for 26 years, Senator McCain is one of those politicians, and he's consistently opposed investments in renewable energy that would reduce our dependence on foreign oil," said Obama spokesman Tommy Vietor. "Now he's proposing nearly $4 billion in tax breaks for the oil companies and Washington gimmicks that he admits will only provide 'psychological relief' to consumers. Barack Obama has fought for energy independence in the Senate and has a plan to invest $150 billion in renewable sources of energy that will create five million new jobs and provide struggling families with an immediate energy rebate and a $1,000 middle-class tax cut."

by Jim Tankersley

Like Cubs or White Sox fans booking their World Series seats at the All-Star Break, Illinois residents are snapping up tickets to celebrate Barack Obama's potential inauguration in Washington next year.

Never mind that native-son Obama is running barely ahead or statistically tied with Republican John McCain in recent polls. The Illinois State Society of Washington, D.C., reports that corporate and individual interest in its traditional, bi-partisan inaugural gala is "running far ahead of previous years" some six months before the next president takes office.

The Society has held inaugural celebrations dating back to 1861, when another local boy, Abraham Lincoln, entered the White House. In recent decades, the Society reports, its parties have been second only to Texas (where, to be fair, everything is bigger) among state-society festivities in D.C.

This year, the Illinois folks opened ticket sales early, anticipating an Obama-inspired surge. Read on for the full details from the press release. No word on whether tickets are refundable - or transferable to the Arizona state gala - if McCain wins.

(Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki. AP photo: Khalid Mohammed)

by Frank James

Who could blame President Bush or Sen. John McCain for privately fuming right about now since Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has just delivered a big gift with a bow on top to Sen. Barack Obama by embracing his 16-months timetable for withdrawing U.S. combat troops from Iraq.

Maliki said as much in an interview with the German magazine Der Spiegel. Here is the relevant excerpt:

SPIEGEL: Would you hazard a prediction as to when most of the US troops will finally leave Iraq?

Maliki: Those who operate on the premise of short time periods in Iraq today are being more realistic. Artificially prolonging the tenure of US troops in Iraq would cause problems. Of course, this is by no means an election endorsement. Who they choose as their president is the Americans' business. But it's the business of Iraqis to say what they want. And that's where the people and the government are in general agreement: The tenure of the coalition troops in Iraq should be limited.

This March 3, 2008 file photo shows Sen. John McCain with former Sen. Phil Gramm in March 2008. (Photo credit: TIMOTHY A. CLARY/AFP/Getty Images)

by Frank James

It was really only a matter of time. You can stick the word "former" in front of Phil Gramm's old title of "national co-chair" of Sen. John McCain's presidential campaign because Gramm has quit in order to give McCain's critics one less lightning rod.

Gramm, who caused an uproar after suggesting Americans were in a "mental recession" and that the U.S. was a "nation of whiners" issued his statement of retreat late Friday, the equivalent of slinking away in the dead of night.

Gramm said:

"It is clear to me that Democrats want to attack me rather than debate Senator McCain on important economic issues facing the country. That kind of distraction hurts not only Senator McCain's ability to present concrete programs to deal with the country's problems, it hurts the country. To end this distraction and get on with the real debate, I hereby step down as co-chair of the McCain campaign and join the growing number of rank-and-file McCain supporters."

Gramm, a crusty former Republican senator from Texas and erstwhile economic professor, was an adviser to the McCain campaign on economic issues. So his characterization of the economy's condition as well as the character of his compatriots was a clear problem for McCain.

Not the least of McCain's problems was that because economic issues are seen as the unofficial Republican nominee's Achilles heel (few doubt his national-security chops) Gramm, a fierce free-marketer, was suspected correctly or not of having an huge role on the McCain campaign's economic thinking. So what Gramm said received a lot of attention.

So he had to go. And, now, he's gone. At least as co-chair. Doesn't mean you can't pick up the telephone and give the candidate a few idea about getting the nation out of its mental recession.

by James Oliphant

Here's Bill O'Reilly addressing the Planned Parenthood McCain attack ad that we posted earlier in the week, the one in which McCain awkwardly pauses after being asked why some health insurance plans cover erectile dysfunction drugs but not birth control.

O'Reilly doesn't want to pay for your birth control either. Nor does he want to buy you dinner first.

The Nation's Katha Pollitt gives her take on the John McCain birth control or Viagra issue in a new column, although she says she realizes the conversation is "not as world-shaking as the caricature of the Obamas on the cover of The New Yorker, which has the high-end media in a total tizzy. It's probably not even as important as the raunchy joke Bernie Mac told at an Obama fundraiser last week, which was bumped from the tizzy list by the New Yorker story."

CNN's Jeanne Moos has her own video here, comparing McCain's hand-over-the-mouth moment to "Thing" from the Adams Family.

by William Neikirk

Former Vice President Al Gore returned to the nation's capital today to issue a stunning challenge: The United States must abandon fossil fuels in generating electricity over the next decade to conquer the danger of global warming.

He said it should be done, could be done, but didn't express confidence that it would be done. His speech raised the question of whether Gore, as a political figure, has enough clout and stature to inspire the kind of solution he outlined.

The former vice president knows he is stepping on many toes and special interests in trying to summon support for such a national crusade. The fact that his rhetoric has yet to break a Washington deadlock over climate change would be reason to doubt the power of his own persona and his scary scenarios.

And will ordinary Americans sign on to this plan? That is a key issue, especially since the country is grappling with gasoline prices topping $4 a gallon and an economy teetering on the edge of a recession. Although viewed as an alarmist by conservatives, Gore hopes that the current climate will make Americans more willing to go along with his drastic plan.

The survival of the country is at risk, Gore warned, and "the future of civilization is at stake" as the planet warms as a result of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases" accumulating in the atmosphere.

And, he said, U.S. national security would be severely threatened without the kind of plan he outlined today. He raised the specter of "hundreds of millions of climate refugees" being able to cause political instability around the world.

The Nobel Prize-winning Gore called for a national effort akin to the country's effort to put a man on the moon, inspired in a famous speech by President John F. Kennedy.

by Frank James

It's doubtful Sen. John McCain won over many African-American voters today with his appearance before the NAACP convention.

Sen. Barack Obama pretty much has upwards of 90 percent of the black vote sewn up if only because, number one, he's the all-but-official Democratic nominee and blacks are overwhelmingly Democrats, number two, he's African-American and number three, millions of black Americans never thought they'd live to see the historical moment when they'd get the chance to vote for a major party presidential nominee who happened to be black.

But McCain surely will get points from some black people for appearing before the convention and engaging participants afterwards by answering a few questions. President Bush stiffed the NAACP for much of his presidency, so McCain succeeded to a large extent by merely showing up.

It wasn't the first time he's appeared before a mostly black audience not predisposed to him. For instance, earlier this year McCain visited the Lorraine Motel Civil Rights Museum in Memphis to mark the 40th anniversary of Martin Luther King Jr.'s assassination.

For Obama to appear at an analogous event, one where his supporters would be outnumbered by McCain supporters by several factors, he'd probably have to speak before the National Rifle Association convention or a Family Research Council gathering. That would be something to see.

As far as the speech itself, which was received respectfully, and got a few intentional laughs at points. It went pretty much as expected. McCain wisely acknowledged the historic nature of Obama's achievement, a very important watershed to his audience:

Senator Obama talks about making history, and he's made quite a bit of it already. And the way was prepared by this venerable organization and others like it. A few years before the NAACP was founded, President Theodore Roosevelt's invitation of Booker T. Washington to dine at the White House was taken as an outrage and an insult in many quarters. America today is a world away from the cruel and prideful bigotry of that time. There is no better evidence of this than the nomination of an African-American to be the presidential nominee of his party. Whatever the outcome in November, Senator Obama has achieved a great thing -- for himself and for his country -- and I thank him for it.

by Frank James

Two interesting polls this morning.

The Washington Post has a presidential horse race poll this morning which gives Democrat Sen. Barack Obama a eight-point lead over Republican Sen. John McCain.

Of course, all these race track polls have to be read with the caveats that it's still too early to put too much stock in these national polls. Also, this race will come down to the electoral college, not the national popular vote.

With that said, the Post poll should put a spring in the steps of Obama's campaign team while injecting more of a sense of urgency into McCain's camp since it gives Obama a 19-point lead on the the question of who's better for the economy. (An article at the Huffington Post today asks if Obama and McCain are ebbing or flowing).

With the race shaping up to be about the economy as violence drops in Iraq, the hand Obama's holding looks increasingly good although the game is far from over.

Here's what the Post says about its poll.

Sen. Barack Obama holds his biggest advantage of the presidential campaign as the candidate best prepared to fix the nation's ailing economy, but lingering concerns about his readiness to handle international crises are keeping the race competitive, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.

Overall, the Democrat has a lead of 50 percent to 42 percent over Republican Sen. John McCain among registered voters nationwide, lifted by a big edge among women, and he has also regained an edge among political independents. But it is Obama's 19-point lead on the economy that has become a particularly steep challenge for McCain.

by Jill Zuckman

Speaking to the NAACP convention today in Cincinnati, Sen. John McCain will describe himself as "an admirer" who hopes to win the votes of members of the venerable civil rights organization.

"But whether or not I win your support, I need your goodwill and counsel," McCain will say according to prepared remarks. "And should I succeed, I'll need it all the more."

According to polls, McCain has little to no support from black voters compared to his Democratic rival, Sen. Barack Obama.

"I have always known we can build a better America, where no place or person is left without hope or opportunity by the sins of injustice or indifference," McCain is expected to say. "It would be among the great privileges of my life to work with you in that cause."

McCain will also challenge NAACP members to challenge conventional thinking when it comes to education policy.

by Jill Zuckman

While Sen. Barack Obama was giving a speech this morning saying that the war in Iraq is distracting the United States from Afghanistan, Sen. John McCain said at a town hall meeting in New Mexico that Obama was wrong on the surge and wrong to lay out his plans for Iraq and Afghanistan before traveling there next week.

"In my experience, fact-finding missions usually work best the other way around: first you assess the facts on the ground, then you present a new strategy," McCain said.

McCain said that both he and Obama agreed that the Bush administration had pursued a failed strategy in Iraq. But at that point, they part company.

"I called for a comprehensive new strategy -- a surge of troops and counterinsurgency to win the war. Senator Obama disagreed. He opposed the surge, predicted it would increase sectarian violence, and called for our troops to retreat as quickly as possible," McCain said.

"Today we know Senator Obama was wrong. The surge has succeeded," said McCain, noting that the commander-in-chief is not allowed a learning curve.

by Frank James

Many national polls suggest that the presidential election is going to be close if nothing changes to shift the race's dynamics significantly in one direction or another.

Here's another indicator of how close the election could be. Voters appear evenly split on whether or not there should be a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq, according to a Washington Post and ABC News poll.

According to the poll, 50 percent of the respondents favored a timetable while 49 percent didn't. Here was another close one: 47 percent of those surveyed said they trusted Sen. John McCain, the all-but-official Republican nominee, on Iraq while 45 percent said they trusted Obama.

But when asked whether McCain would make a good commander-in-chief, 72 percent said yes while 25 percent said no.

By comparison, respondents were evenly split at 48 percent on the question of whether Obama would make a good leader of the U.S. military.

However, many analysts believe the election will turn not on Iraq but on the economy. If that holds, then Obama could have the advantage since polling shows him leading McCain on economic issues.

But what's really interesting about this Iraq poll is that it seems to indicate that McCain's position on Iraq isn't as unpopular with voters as it's frequently portrayed.

by Frank James

Sen. Barack Obama is making another effort to convince voters that he hasn't significantly shifted his position on withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq with his op-ed in today's New York Times and to defang accusations that he's a flip flopper.

The op-ed is a reprise of the argument the all-but-official Democratic nominee has been making in recent weeks on the campaign trail that he has has always wanted a measured withdrawal of U.S. combat troops that took into account conditions on the ground.

When you read it, it should be with an eye towards answering these questions: will this reassure Democratic Party activists that Obama isn't abandoning his earlier position on Iraq in an attempt to move to the center. Will it persuade others, like independents, that he isn't a flip-flopper, as Republicans have tried to portray him?

Obama starts his piece with was an apparent boon for his campaign and bane for the Bush Administration and Sen. John McCain's campaign -- the alleged request for a U.S. withdrawal timetable from the Iraqi leadership. (As with so much having to do with Iraq, there is some doubt as to what Iraqi officials have really said, as this BBC story indicates.)

The call by Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki for a timetable for the removal of American troops from Iraq presents an enormous opportunity. We should seize this moment to begin the phased redeployment of combat troops that I have long advocated, and that is needed for long-term success in Iraq and the security interests of the United States...

A few paragraphs later, he gets to the point he wants to drive home, that he hasn't shifted, that's what he's saying now is what he's long been saying:

As I've said many times, we must be as careful getting out of Iraq as we were careless getting in. We can safely redeploy our combat brigades at a pace that would remove them in 16 months. That would be the summer of 2010 -- two years from now, and more than seven years after the war began. After this redeployment, a residual force in Iraq would perform limited missions: going after any remnants of Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia, protecting American service members and, so long as the Iraqis make political progress, training Iraqi security forces. That would not be a precipitous withdrawal.

by Jill Zuckman

At his Hidden Valley ranch near Sedona, Ariz., Sen. John McCain takes his guests for long hikes across the creek and up the hill, pointing out species of birds, plants and wildlife, and occasionally serving as medic to extract cactus thorns from his friends.

The 67 bird species that populate the valley provide McCain with fodder for noting a black hawk's nest, a woodpecker's favorite post or a story about the time he watched a bird teach her baby to fly. In many ways, McCain's Arizona weekends are a reflection of himself, but also one of his favorite presidents, Theodore Roosevelt, a naturalist, taxidermist, hunter, explorer and father of what later became the National Park Service.

"If you wanted to get some insight into John McCain, what kind of figures in history that he has a good view of, Roosevelt would be at the top," said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.). "He understood that Teddy Roosevelt was a flawed man, but yeah, he admires his grit, determination, taking on the special interests, his foreign policy expertise. He's a real admirer of T.R."

McCain speaks frequently of Roosevelt and even wrote a chapter about him in his memoir, "Worth the Fighting For."

"I think what I admire most is that he had a clear vision of the role of America in the world in the 20th Century," McCain said in an interview, noting Roosevelt's early concerns about Japan. Asked about his own vision, McCain cited his watchfulness of China and India as they become super powers, as well as his hard posture toward Islamic extremists.

He also praised Roosevelt for being a great environmentalist, championing a strong national security policy and promoting the idea that government should respond to the people.

"It's a much-derided word, but he was a populist," said McCain, who recently finished reading "a charming little book" that Roosevelt wrote in 1904 about hunting.

"Anybody who can take a bullet in the chest and still give the speech and then go to the hospital is quite a guy," McCain said, speaking about the attempt on Roosevelt's life in 1912.

Asked whether he considered himself a populist in the Roosevelt mold, McCain paused before answering: "Hopefully, I can uphold some of his traditions of standing up for average citizens in this hotbed of influence by special interests."

by Frank James, updated at 4:53 pm with new material.

We thought our colleague, the Pulitzer Prize-winning investigative journalist John Crewdson, had authoritatively settled the whole question of whether the Panama Canal Zone-born Sen. John McCain was eligible to be president in a February posting.

Now comes a law professor who, according to the New York Times, has concluded that the McCain isn't eligible under the Constitution to run for the White House.

Here's a snippet from the Times article:

In the most detailed examination yet of Senator John McCain's eligibility to be president, a law professor at the University of Arizona has concluded that neither Mr. McCain's birth in 1936 in the Panama Canal Zone nor the fact that his parents were American citizens is enough to satisfy the constitutional requirement that the president must be a "natural-born citizen."

"It's preposterous that a technicality like this can make a difference in an advanced democracy," Professor Chin said. "But this is the constitutional text that we have."

by Frank James

Voters, especially Democrats, are more interested in the coming presidential election than they've been in two decades, a trend that could significantly boost turnout and give Sen. Barack Obama a big advantage over Sen. John McCain, according to a new poll from the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press.

Another finding from the Pew poll that could augur well for Obama is that voter engagement was especially high among younger voters under 50, exactly that voter group Obama is counting on to turn out in large numbers for him.

The Obama campaign is hoping for historic levels of turnout amoung voters on the young end of the age scale in particular, voters who in past elections have typically not shown up at the polls the way older voters have. The poll suggests that such voters are psyched for Obama. The question, of course, is whether they'll stay excited about Obama all the way to the election booth.

Here's yet another interesting result: despite the good news for Obama, there was bad news for him too. Democrats weren't as unified behind him as Republicans were behind McCain. But what Obama lacked in party unity he made up for in enthusiam, an area that was a McCain weakness.

And here's why both candidates are taking such pains currently to move towards the center of the political spectrum: Pew's results suggest there exists a substantial pool of undecided swing voters out there yet to be won over.

Here's a summary from Pew:

The outlook for the presidential election at mid-year is substantially different than at comparable points in time in recent campaigns. First, turnout is likely to be higher this fall - perhaps much higher than in previous elections - as voter interest continues at record levels. Second, as has been the case since the start of the campaign, Democrats enjoy a substantial engagement advantage over Republicans that may significantly alter the composition of the November electorate.