by Mark Silva
SHARM EL-SHEIK, Egypt - President Bush, concluding a five-day tour of the Middle East, voiced increased confidence that Israeli and Palestinian leaders can agree upon the outlines of a new Palestine state by the end of this year.
The obstacles to such an agreement are legion - ranging from persistent violence to the precariousness of the political power of Israeli and Palestinian leaders negotiating an accord.
Yet the White House maintains that Bush gained confidence in a series of private talks with Mideast leaders during this journey - Israeli, Palestinian, Saudi, Egyptian and Jordanian - that the outlines of a new state can be drawn by the end of his own presidency. Without elaborating on secretive talks, the administration claimed "tangible progress on hard issues'' during the past few days - leaving the door open to another possible Bush visit to Israel, the third this year, before leaving office in January.
"A peace agreement is in the Palestinians' interests, it is in Israel's interest, it is in Arab states' interests, and it is in the world's interest,'' Bush said Sunday, in an address to a World Economic Forum on the Middle East. "And I firmly believe that with leadership and courage, we can reach that peace agreement this year.''
The actual creation of any independent Palestinian state, the White House ready allows, will take much longer - and depends on further agreement between Israelis and Palestinians over lingering disputes over the fate of refugees, the containment of violence, retrenchment of Israeli settlements and many other matters.
"Is it done yet? No,'' said Stephen Hadley, the president's national security adviser, after a series of private, individual meetings between Bush and leaders of several nations in Israel, Saudi Arabia and here in Sharm el-Sheik. "Are we making progress? The president's view is, yes, we're making progress.''
Analysts skeptical of the chances of success for this pursuit say they have seen no new cause for optimism, with the Israeli and Palestinian heads of state negotiating it facing political problems of their own.
"If you get an agreement from these leaders, how do these leaders begin to implement it -- you have two incredibly weak leaders and a weak American president,'' Jon Alterman, director of Middle East studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Sunday. "How do you bring the skeptics on board? I don't see a plan for that. And the skeptics in this conflict have a lot of guns.''
See the rest of the story in today's Tribune and an expanded version here in the Swamp: