by Mark Silva

It could be one of those earlier outliers.

Or it could be really bad news for John McCain.

But Newsweek magazine, reporting on the results of a survey run June 18-19, reports a 15-percentage point advantage for Barack Obama in the race for the White House.

"Barack finally has his bounce,'' Newsweek suggests of the Democratic Party's presumptive nominee, who clinched the party's nomination within the past three weeks and has been looking for the bounce that might come with that.

The Illinois senator stands particularly strong among independents in this survey - favored by a margin of 48 to 36 percent over McCain, the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, among swing voters critical to the outcome of the vote on Nov. 4 Overall. Obama holds a 51 percentage point to 36-point advantage among all surveyed by Newsweek.

Now, this is a far greater advantage than other surveys have found since Obama clinched the nomination, with NBC News and the Wall Street Journal finding just a few-points edge for the Illinoisan.

The Gallup Poll in particular, which has been running a daily tracking poll and found Obama up seven points at one point since he silenced Sen. Hillary Clinton of New York in the Democratic primaries, portrays a virtual tie in the race with McCain: 46 percent Obama, 44 percent McCain.

There are screens and there are samples to consider in these surveys, too.

Newsweek surveyed 1,010 adults, registered voters, and the reported results carry a possible 4 percentage point margin of error. Gallup's daily track is the result of a three-day rolling average, with 2,640 registered voters represented in its latest, June 17, 19 and 20 survey, reported today carrying a possible margin of error of just 2 percentage points.

By Paul West

A fierce debate over national security, perhaps the clearest and widest difference between John McCain and Barack Obama, was triggered this week by, of all people, five justices of the Supreme Court. How it plays out could determine who becomes the next president.

The court's decision in a Guantanamo Bay case, giving non-citizen prisoners the right to challenge their detention in federal court, "threw a stone in the pond" of the presidential contest, remarked Robert Gibbs, the Obama campaign's communications director.

A boulder might be more like it.

Ripples from the ruling launched a furious argument over Obama's national security views, as he was rolling out an ad campaign designed to cast him in a patriotic light. Coincidentally or not, McCain's support in Gallup's national tracking poll ticked upward and Obama's lead was down to two percentage points by Friday.

by Mark Silva

The second full week of the known contest for the White House ends with Barack Obama and John McCain in a virtual tie in national polling, according to the Gallup Poll's daily tracking.

Obama, the Democratic, junior senator from Illinois, had opened up a modest advantage over McCain, the Republican, senior senator from Arizona, after clinching the Democratic nomination early this month. Gallup isn't the only poll that showed "a modest bump'' for Obama, seven points up several days back. The pollsters working for NBC News and the Wall Street Journal found a similar spread, and announcers voiced surprise it wasn't wider.

The latest Gallup snapshot: Obama 46 percent, McCain 44 percent.

In a survey with a 2 percentage point margin of error, that's a virtual tie.

Which will make for a long, hot summer.

At the same time, in a race that will be fought in several states rather than on a national canvas, the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute has found Obama holding advantages over McCain in three critical states: Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio.

The Gallup results come from surveys June 16-17 and June 19.

"In the broadest sense, the race between McCain and Obama has been close for months now,'' reports Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport, "with McCain holding small leads over Obama in earlier months this spring prior to Obama's gaining his slight edge in recent weeks.''

For more, see the Gallup Poll.

by Mark Silva

Once a year, the folks at Gallup step back and take a look at confidence in the great institutions of our society.

Guess who's at the bottom of the heap this year?

Congress. Right below HMOs.

Just 12 percent of Ameriicans surveyed voice confidence in Congress, "the lowest of the 16 institutions tested this year, and the worst rating Gallup has measured for any institution in the 35-year history of this question,'' Gallup's Jeffrey Jones adds.

"The poor economy and lack of effective government action on important issues such as gas prices, the Iraq War, and immigration help contribute to the erosion of trust and confidence in government institutions,'' Jones reports. These ratings indicate that people "may be hungry for change in Washington come the fall's elections.''

For more on the survey, read on below, and see Gallup's report.

by Frank James

House Democrats responded to President Bush's proposal to end the moratorium on drilling for oil offshore as well as in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge by telling the president to drop dead, although they used a lot more words to make the same point.

The Democrats' main argument was that the oil industry is already in possession of 68 million acres of oil leases and that Big Oil should drill away on those before they come around asking the federal government for any more land or ocean floor.

At a Capitol Hill press conference following Bush's White House Rose Garden appearance, Rep. Ed Markey of Massachusetts ridiculed the president as essentially a mouthpiece for the oil and gas industry.

Then he urged Bush to support legislation that would charge oil companies fees that would increase the longer the companies hold onto the leases without producing oil on them:

And you know, today is an historic day. The president has decided to take out some of the oldest ideas which the oil and gas industry have had for destroying the most pristine wilderness and shoreline that we have in the United States. After eight years, President Bush and Dick Cheney have turned the GOP into the "Gas and Oil Party." That's the legacy that they are going to leave.

And what we're going to do, Mr. (Rahm) Emanuel, Mr. (Nick) Rahall, Mr. (Maurice) Hinchey and the Democratic Party is going to do, is we're going to give them a chance in the White House to put their money where their mouth is. We're going to give them a chance to impose fees on the oil industry on the public lands where they do not drill, where the American people have already given them an opportunity to drill. And we will increase the fees as the years go by, because otherwise, they will have wound up warehousing where the oil is in the United States that the American people, the Democratic Party, everyone wants them to drill, but they're refusing to drill, and at the same time, they're insisting that we should go to places that should be preserved forever.

by Frank James

Has the U.S. passed the point where it can enjoy the luxury of restricting drilling on the Outer Continental Shelf and even the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge?

That is clearly the decision that's been made by Sen. John McCain, the all-but-official Republican presidential nominee, who now supports drilling off the U.S. coast, though he's still hanging on, for now, to his opposition to drilling in Alaska. Florida politicians and fellow Republicans like Gov. Charlie Crist and Sen. Mel Martinez have followed suit.

President Bush has long supported drilling in Alaska but is now calling for lifting the federal ban on off-shore drilling.

Democrats, at least to this point, are showing no such change of heart. Indeed, it will be harder for Democrats to make a similar shift because the party has an environmental constituency that would make such a move painful for any Democratic politician who dares suggest that such drilling bans be lifted.

Many Democrats and environmentalists argue the nation can't "drill it's way out of the problem," that any effort to increase the domestic production of oil just continues the nation's addition to that energy source by postponing the needed transition to alternative and renewable fuel sources and increased conservation.

by Mark Silva

Here is a notable early read from some important states:

Democrat Barack Obama holds an apparent advantage over Republican John McCain in Florida, Pennsylvania and Ohio, according to the results of a new Quinnipiac University "swing state'' survey.

These are all states in which Hillary Clinton prevailed over Obama in the party primaries - though Florida's disputed primary in January was uncontested. In Ohio and Pennsylvania, in particular, the primary contest was portrayed as a question of who might be able to carry working class voters in a general election matchup with McCain.

"Finally getting Sen. Hillary Clinton out of the race has been a big boost for Sen. Barack Obama,'' suggests Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Inttitute.

The results from Quinnipiac's sizable surveys of voters in these three states critical to either presidential candidate in November:

Florida: Obama 47 percent, McCain 43 percent.

Pennsylvania: Obama 52, McCain 40

Ohio: Obama 48, McCain 42.

Obama draws his advantage "with strong support from women, blacks and younger voters,'' Quinnipiac report - noting that this also marks the first time that Obama, the presumptive Democratic nominee for president, has led McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee, in matchups in these states.

"No one has been elected president since 1960 without taking two of these three largest swing states in the Electoral College,'' the pollsters note.

These were sizable surveys run between June 9-16: Polls of 1,453 Florida likely voters, with a possible margin of error of plus or minus 2.6 percent; 1,396 Ohio likely voters with a margin of 2.6 percent; 1,511 Pennsylvania likely voters with a 2.5 percent margin.

For mnre on the surveys, read on below, and see the poll here.

by Mark Silva

Numbers to remember, from our friends at Top of the Ticket who have a new poll of Latino voters which is of particular interest to Sen. Barack Obama:

76 percent: Jimmy Carter's share of the Latino vote in 1976.

72 percent: Bill Clinton's share at reelection in 1996.

67 percent: Al Gore's share in winning the popular vote in 2000.

56 percent: John Kerry's share in his loss to George W. Bush in '04.

Republicans like the way those numbers have trended, with Bush - a Texas-schooled politician who told Latinos he wanted to "look you in the ojos'' - raising hopes within his party with a 43 percent share in '04.

But a new poll of Latino voters in 21 states run by Pacific Market Research and political scientists at the University of Washington has found Obama's potential level of support approaching what predecessors in his party, prior to 2004, have been able to attract. Obama was the favorite among 60 percent surveyed, McCain 23 percent, with 16 percent undecided. The poll has a 3.5 percentage-point margn of error.

See the story in Top of the Ticket, the L.A. Times political blog.

by Frank James

The percentage of Americans using the Internet to get news and information about the presidential campaign more than doubled in spring 2008 from spring 2004, according to a new survey by the Pew Internet & American Life Project.

There aren't a lot of surprises in the survey. For instance, it found that younger voters used the Internet much more than older ones. And most of those voters who were most-active online supported Sen. Barack Obama over Sen. Hillary Clinton, which tracks with Obama's great success in fundraising and organizing online.

Meanwhile, supporters of Obama, the all-but-official Democratic presidential nominee, have a greater online presence than those of Sen. John McCain, his Republican counterpart.

Here's a snippet from Pew's press release:

WASHINGTON, DC - Fully 46% of all Americans have used the internet, email or cell phone text messaging to get news about the campaign, share their views and mobilize others.

The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

by Frank James

Sen. Barack Obama may be virtually tied with Sen. John McCain in Gallup's national tracking poll which seeks to gauge which candidate voters support.

But when Gallup asked voters who they believe will win the White House in November, the Democratic senator from Illinois has a clear advantage over his Republican Senate colleague from Arizona.

As Gallup reports:

PRINCETON, NJ -- Not only has Barack Obama recently opened a small lead over John McCain in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of voter preferences for the general election, but he leads McCain 52% to 41% in public perceptions of who will win in November.

by Katie Fretland

A new study shows Republicans have grown more critical of the state of American morality, Gallup reports.

In a May poll, 51 percent reported that present moral conditions are "poor." This shows an increase of 15 percent since 2006. The increase in criticism was not seen among Democrats or independents, according to Gallup's Lydia Saad.

From 2006 to 2007, the percentage reporting a "poor" opinion of the state of moral values increased from 36 percent to 51 percent, which is the level it remained at until the most recent study.

Saad offers this analysis:

"Americans are reliably negative when it comes to rating moral values in the country. Since 2002, a majority of Americans have consistently said the state of moral values is less than good and getting worse.

"Apart from this general pattern, Republicans' disaffection with the nation's moral climate (but not Democrats' or independents') has been elevated over the past two years, A number of "values" issues have been in the news in recent years, including gay marriage, pop-star misbehavior, and reports of high-profile elected officials involved in sex-related scandals, but it is unclear that any of these are responsible for the pattern in the data.

by Mark Silva

Since Barack Obama clinched the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, the Gallup Poll's daily tracking has found a bump for Obama in national polling. Gallup called it "a modest bump.''

Now NBC News and the Wall Street Journal have waded into the contest and come out of the polling waters with essentially the ame finding: Obama supported among 47 percent of those surveyed, Republican John McCain the favorite of 41 percent. The latest three-day average of the Gallup daily track had it at Obama 48, McCain 42, with new numbers coming today.

But NBC's Andrea Mitchell sees this as something other than a modest bump for Obama, at a time of great appetite for change in America.

"The surprise is, it should be Obama's to lose,'' she said today in analyzing the results on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "It's the first matchup of Barack Obama and John McCainn since the primaries are over,'' she said of the poll, and McCain is running with "a ball and chain'' around him - President Bush, carrying the lowest approval ratings of his eight years.

"It's a very tight race,'' Mitchell said, "a six-point race, which is really much tighter than it should be.''

The closeness of the contest belies some of the poll's own findings: When people were asked about the most important quality for a president, 54 percent cited "will bring change'' - which is supposed to be the hallmark of Obama's campaign. And 42 percent cited "experience'' - which is McCain's trademark.

But there are some demographic divides that help explain the tightness of the contest: Among white men surveyed, 55 percent favor Obama, 35 McCain. Among white suburban women, 44 percent McCain, 38 Obama. These and other divides, such as Obama's stronger appeal to younger voters, could continue to make the contest -- in this year of voter discontent with the status quo in Washington, McCain's own party -- as Andrea Mitchell put it, "really much tighter than it should be.''

by Mark Silva

As much as many of Hillary Clinton's supporters said during the heat of the party's primary contest that they would sooner vote for Republican John McCain than Democrat Barack Obama, the Illinois senator's gain in national polling in the past week has come more from women than from men.

Looking at daily tracking polls on the general election contest between Obama and McCain, Gallup's Jeffrey Jones reports: "Obama's lead among women has now expanded from five percentage points to 13, while his deficit among men has shrunk from six points to two.''

This is a comparison with tracking polls conducted May 27-June 2, the week before Obama clinched his party's nomination on June 3). That polling showed Obama and McCain tied at 46 percent among registered voters nationally.

Gallup's surveys from June 5-9 showed Obama holding a 48-42 percentage point advantage over McCain - as does the newest survey through Tuesday.

"While campaigning for president, Clinton demonstrated an especially strong appeal to women,'' Jones notes. "She led McCain by 52 to 40 percent in her final full week as a candidate, exactly equal to the average since mid-March.

"By comparison, Obama held only an average 47 to 42 percent lead over McCain among women during the same time span,'' Jones adds. "At least for now, he seems to be matching Clinton's performance among women versus McCain, given his current 13-point lead among female voters.''

For more, see the Gallup report.

by Mark Silva

One week after Sen. Barack Obama clinched the Democratic Party's presidential nomination, the Illinois Democrat has gained a significant and "fairly stable'' advantage over Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona in daily tracking polls.

The seven-point advantage that Obama holds over McCain in the latest three-day average in the Gallup Poll's daily track is now a shade larger than a six-point advantage that McCain held over Obama from April 27 to May 2 - the last and only time during a few months of Gallup tracking that McCain held the upper hand.

"Voting preferences have been fairly stable over the last three individual days of tracking polling, all conducted since Hillary Clinton officially suspended her candidacy and publicly endorsed Obama for president on Saturday,'' Jeff Jones of Gallup reports. "The seven percentage point advantage is Obama's largest to date since Gallup began tracking the general election in March.''

Obama holds a 48 to 41 precent advantage in the latest Gallup track, based on polling from Saturday through Monday. Gallup is interviewing at least 1,000 adults each day during 2008. The results from a three-day sample of 2,633 registered voters carries a possible margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

For more, see the Gallup Poll.

by Mark Silva

After a long-held virtual tie in polling on a matchup between Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain, the senator from Illinois has gained "a modest bump'' over the senator from Arizona following Obama's clinching of the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

Obama 48 percent, McCain 42 percent.

"Obama has consistently held a lead of five to seven percentage points each night since it was reported that Hillary Clinton intended to suspend her campaign,'' Gallup's Jeff Jones reports today.

"These represent Obama's strongest showing versus McCain to date in Gallup Poll Daily tracking of registered voters' presidential election preferences. For much of the time since Gallup began tracking general election preferences in mid-March, McCain and Obama have been in a statistical dead heat.''

The advantage is stronger if Hillary Clinton's name is added to a theoretical ticket:

"At this point, Clinton would seem to give a slight three-point boost to Obama's margin over McCain, with the Obama-Clinton ticket leading McCain by an average of 51 percent to 42 percent over the past three days,'' Jones reports.

See more in the Gallup Poll.

by Mark Silva

While Hillary Clinton angles for a still uncertain position in this post Obama-clinches-nomination period, there is one place where most Obama supporters don't want her.

On the ticket.

"On the morning after Barack Obama's historic nomination victory, attention has quickly turned to the question of possible running mates - specifically whether Obama and Hillary Clinton will join forces in a so-called "Dream Ticket,'' the Pew Research Center reports.

"In a survey conducted in late May (May 21-25), a majority of Democratic and Democratic-leaning voters (53 percent) said they would like to see Obama choose Clinton as his running mate. However, Obama supporters viewed a possible Obama-Clinton pairing as anything but a dream. Fully 54 percent said they did not want to see Obama choose Clinton as his running mate while 37 percent said they did.

"Clinton supporters, not surprisingly, were much more open to the