Previous entry: 
Next entry:
Hurricane forecast: 2008 ocean temperatures compared
Forecasters are warning of an intense hurricane season this year. So we thought we would offer you a look at sea surface temperatures, a contributor to hurricane formation and intensity.
The images below compare three years of records for March 31. While 2008 doesn't look bad yet, there is still plenty of time for oceans to heat up. The images are produced daily by NOAA, so you can check on them at any time.
Also, check out Ken Kaye's Storm Center for regular updates on hurricane coverage.
Comments
Ocean temps are only part of the picture .. you must also consider upper atmospheric conditions, El Nino, conditions in common areas of origin such as West Africa and the Caribbean .. plus random or stochastic effects .. plus the fact that all the greatest scientific minds that know little or nothing about what is going on in the tropics ..
Posted by: SANG | April 1, 2008 12:14 PM
The prediction nuts are at it again. This is the same prediction of the last 2 years prior, which we know were incorrect. So, I guess, if they continue to post the same prediction year after year, they are bound to get it right once out of several guesses. Hopefully, they will be wrong again. In any event, they have no idea what the hurricane season will be like. I can make a prediction as well and I bet I will be close as well. I am not predicting an intense season this year. My prediction: continued global cooling in the US and around the world.
Posted by: Andrew | April 1, 2008 2:19 PM
The earth is warming up thrus we are going to get more intense hurricanes and other storms. The earth is 10 degrees warmer than forty-eight years ago.
Posted by: CarolAnn | April 1, 2008 6:41 PM
OK- 2005- massive warm water areas, plenty of hurricanes.
2007- less of an area of warm water, significantly fewer storms.
2008- significantly smaller area of warm water, and the prediction is for more storm intensity.
Is ANYone out there buying this?
Posted by: Joe | April 3, 2008 12:21 AM
OK! OK! You made a believer out of us here in Mississippi!
Next time they say look out, we will already BE OUT!
Chuch Baer
Posted by: Chuck Baer | April 3, 2008 3:23 PM
I oceans are getting warmer. The ice in the artic is melting.
The earth is getting warmer. Hurricans and other storms are more intense than they were.The earth is warmer than it was
forty-eight years ago.
Posted by: CarolAnn | April 3, 2008 3:47 PM
Once again the self proclaimed expert that cannot predict weather a week in advance want to predict months away. Why not wait a week away from an actual hurricane and can board our homes and leave.
Posted by: areyes | April 3, 2008 9:48 PM
So your charts are telling us that the oceans are actually cooler now that 2 years ago?
Is the earth beginning its next ice age?
What would we see if you did this for a 10 or 20 year span?
Posted by: areyes | April 3, 2008 9:52 PM
I agree with one of the earlier posts. As I read those maps, it appears that the sea surface temperatures are significantly cooler, and have each year been cooler since 2005. How do the forecasters interperate this as a warning sign? If anything, it should point to a less active season! Oh, yeah... that's right... all the funds for this stuff comes curtesy of the insurance industry, that benefits from predictions of an active season!
Posted by: Jeff | April 4, 2008 9:10 AM