Meteorologists at the National Hurricane Center study a wide array of data and use experience and intuition to predict a hurricane’s future path. Computer-generated weather models and measurements gathered by Hurricane Hunter aircraft play a major role. Here’s how some of the models work:

CLIPER CLImatology and PERsistence; National Hurricane Center
Type: Statistical model
How it works: Compares a storm to historically similar storms.

NHC981998 National Hurricane Center model, National Hurricane Center
Type: Combined model
How it works: Combines the CLIPER and GFS models. 

GFS Global Forecast System, National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Type: Dynamic model
How it works: Creates worldwide forecasts by plotting the storm on a large grid that covers the globe. Readings from the grid points nearest the storm are combined with known values consistent with hurricanes, such as convection.

BAM Beta and Advection Model, National Hurricane Center
Type: Dynamic model
How it works: Follows a vortex placed in the storm’s current position and corrects errors caused by the earth’s spin not accounted for in the GFS trajectory. Three types of BAM models:
BAMS (Shallow): For winds 5,000 to 10,000 feet
BAMM (Medium): For winds 10,000 to 24,500 feet
BAMD (Deep): For winds 24,500 to 47,000 feet

GFDL Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Type: Dynamic baroclinic model
How it works: This model, developed specifically for hurricane prediction, uses a grid similar to GFS. It adds smaller grids over the storm to compute additional data. Meteorologists give this model significant weight.

NOGAPS Naval Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System, Naval Research Laboratory
Type: Dynamic global model
How it works: This model uses parameters of physical processes and a bogussing, or faking, scheme for a tropical cyclone.

UKMET United Kingdom Meteorological Office
Type: Dynamic Global model
How it works: Like the NOGAPS and GFS models, the UKMET includes extensive readings and a bogussing system.

GUNS Ensemble Naval Research Laboratory
Type: Combined model
How it works: This model averages the GFDL, UKMET and NOGAPS tracks. It is more accurate at 24, 48 and 72 hours than the best of individual models.

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UPDATE: The GFDL model has shifted west. You can see a newer animation here.

The GFDL forecast model is predicting Fay will make landfall over the Everglades and the eye will pass over South Florida. This is only one of several models used to predict the storm's path so Fay could still miss South Florida. But the images do provide insight to how the storm could look if it did hit us. Click the image to view an animation. When the page opens, hit the "FWD" button to start the animation.

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Now that the presidential horse race between McCain and Obama is under way, it's time to get yourself on over to Pollster. Yeah, Yeah, we know...

Don't polls have a huge margin of error? Sort of.

Don't polls talk to ridiculously small groups of people? Not really.

How do I know which poll is right? You can't know for sure, but Pollster can help...

Pollster simplifies things by charting results from many polls to show a general trend. It doesn't make them right. It just makes a lot of sense.

Here are two examples:

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Two of our favorite West Coast newspapers created guides to the U.S. Open. Our sister paper, the Los Angeles Times, has video reports on each hole.

And our friends at the San Diego Union-Tribune created a terrific hole-by-hole guide to the course, complete with zoomable graphics, walk-throughs and flyovers.

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So we're trying something new. We're offering up some of our graphics as widgets you can add to your web site, Facebook, MySpace, etc. First one out of the gate is a small version of the Crist-O-Meter, a graphic we posted a little while back. Editors monitor news stories and update Charlie's chances of being McCain's running mate.

To get it, click on the "get and share" button on the bottom of the graphic. All the necessary code will be provided.

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The HBO movie Recount premiers this weekend.

We expected to find a better explainer of the infamous Palm Beach County Butterfly Ballot on their Web site but didn't. Fortunately for you, we reproduced the actual ballot back in 2000 to let readers see if they would have voted correctly. Try it out, if you dare.

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NOAA cane out with their hurricane forecast today and said a weak La Nina and warmer than normal sea surface temperatures could contribute to a storm season with as many as 9 hurricanes.

Animation of La Niña off the coast of South America Flashing will stop once loaded.

The blue areas off the coast of South America extending through the middle of the image are sea surface temperatures that indicate a La Niña. They are stronger in February and there appears to be a slight warming trend closer to the coast.

Sea surface temperatures
The images below compare temperatures for May 21 in 2008 and 2005, a record-setting hurricane season. While 2008 appears to have warm waters covering more area, 2005 had hotter temperatures in the Caribbean Sea. The images are produced daily by NOAA, so you can check on them at any time.

Also, check out Ken Kaye's Storm Center for regular updates on hurricane coverage.

For more information, click on the image above to see more animations or checkout NOAA's La Niña Web site.

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Since we are at the height of fire season, we thought we would give you another way to keep track of the smoldering state we call home.

The map shows current fires in red and fires from throughout the year in yellow. The USDA Forest Service creates these maps for the entire United States. They also provide maps of fires for various regions and some individual states like Florida.

We also have a Google map with active fires.

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Over the weekend, the Sun-Sentinel published a report on violent crimes at 13 South Florida malls. Part of our online storytelling included a searchable database (above) that lets readers explore the information.

The database was compiled by reporters Brian Hass and Sofia Santana and editor Dana Williams. They examined more than 22,000 police reports, found that more than 500 cases were violent crimes and cataloged the details in a spreadsheet. It was handed off to the graphics department and I designed and programmed the interface in Flash with a ton of help from Multimedia Director R. Scott Horner, our Flash wiz.

The rest of the Flash package was produced by Karsten Ivey, Belinda Long-Ivey and Lindsay Dubois.

We are always tying to improve and would love to hear comments on your experience with the project. Was it easy to use? Could something have been better?

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A massive 7.8 earthquake struck China on Monday, possibly killing as many as 5,000 people. The quake hit at 2:28 EDT.

The U.S. Geological Survey monitors earthquakes around the world and offers detailed information. The maps are updated daily.

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This pair of images from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on NASAs Terra satellite use a combination of visible and infrared light to make floodwaters obvious. Water is blue or nearly black, vegetation is bright green, bare ground is tan, and clouds are white or light blue.

AP Photo/NASA

On the left: On April 15 (before the storm), rivers and lakes are sharply defined against a backdrop of vegetation and fallow agricultural land. The Irrawaddy River flows south through the left-hand side of the image. The wetlands near the shore are a deep blue green.

On the right: Cyclone Nargis came ashore across the Mouths of the Irrawaddy and followed the coastline northeast. The entire coastal plain is flooded in the May 5 image.

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After more than 10 years, the Air & Sea Show has come to an end. It's a shame, if you ask me. It was fun and was always good fodder for graphics.

For example, a few years ago, our competitors to the south were sponsoring the event so we decided to try and steal their thunder. We created a special section with a cut-out paper airplane, built an interactive graphic so readers could build and print planes online and produced a News Illustrated page explaining the aerodynamics.

The research and development was particularly fun. At one point, our Managing Editor walked by the department and was nearly struck by a test plane that sailed through the door. Talk about not safe for work.

So if you really miss the Air & Sea Show, hold an event at home. Build some planes and throw them in the air. We thought it a fitting farewell.

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With Fleet Week nearly upon us, we thought we would trot out a guide to reading a sailor's uniform. The page dates from 2004 and serves as a guide to rank and medals.

Of course, if you would rather know the ranks and insignias for the Marines, you can find them here.

Anchors away!

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Scientists at the Vulcan Project, have collected data to create a series of maps to illustrate CO2 emissions in the US.

The Project is funded by NASA and the Department of Energy under the North American Carbon Program (NACP). The Vulcan CO2 inventory is intended to add detail and scope to policy discussions and aid demographers and social scientists.

Detail map of carbon emissions for Florida taken from map below.

Map of carbon emissions for the United States.

Are we making progress? The news is mixed. The image below illustrates the change in emissions from 1998 to 2002. The West, North East and parts of Florida have decreased their CO2 levels while levels in the middle of the country have increased. Methodology.

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Animation of La Niña off the coast of South America Flashing will stop once loaded.

William Gray came out with his annual prediction today and said a weak La Nina could contribute to a storm season with as many as 15 named storms.

The blue areas off the coast of South America extending through the middle of the image are sea surface temperatures that indicate a La Niña. They are stronger in January, but there appears to be a slight warming trend closer to the coast.

For more information, click on the image above to see more animations or checkout NOAA's La Niña Web site.

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It's only April and I already miss football. Anyone for a game of the paper variety? In fact, let's start a league. Oh wait, one already exists.

The interactive graphic above was created by Multimedia Director R. Scott Horner for last year's football preview. Enjoy.

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Wow. That was a bunch of rain last night. The image above is a composite of several NEXRAD radar stations that shows rainfall in inches. More is on the way, so try to stay dry.

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Noel's actual path superimposed on a 5-day forecast.

With the National Hurricane Center's push to extend their forecast to seven days, we decided to take a quick look at Noel, a tropical storm that threatened Florida last year. The track veers wildly at times, but it mostly stays within the forecast cone. Noel became a hurricane after passing over the Bahamas.

You can view the NHC's animation of Noel forecast maps or the report for the entire 2007 hurricane season.

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Promotional rendering of The Wave transit system

Fort Lauderdale has decided to ante up part of the money ($37.5 million) for a proposed light rail loop downtown. I can't wait for the sourdough bread and clam chowder.

You can download the city's promotional materials and map of where the train would go or watch a short video of what the intersection of Andrews Avenue and 2nd Street could look like.

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Forecasters are warning of an intense hurricane season this year. So we thought we would offer you a look at sea surface temperatures, a contributor to hurricane formation and intensity.

The images below compare three years of records for March 31. While 2008 doesn't look bad yet, there is still plenty of time for oceans to heat up. The images are produced daily by NOAA, so you can check on them at any time.

Also, check out Ken Kaye's Storm Center for regular updates on hurricane coverage.

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The map above was produced with data from the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count web site. Once you are there, click on a state to get detailed information. It has city-by-city details of forces who have died or been injured in Iraq. The information is collected from several sources, including Centcom, the Multi-National Force of Iraq, news reports and the Department of Defense. All reports must be confirmed by the Department of Defense to be counted.

Who's doing the counting? Here's an excerpt from the site:

This site is maintained by amateurs. We have no affiliation with the government, think tanks, or news organizations. The site is maintained during the early morning hours, late at night, and during lunch breaks. This site is provided as a free service and is self financed with cost off set by user donations.

Their records match the Department of Defense in most cases. Casualties that have not yet been confirmed are listed but identified as such.

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Hello and welcome to one of the Sun-Sentinel's newest blogs. Rather than bore you with who we are and why we're here (check About This Blog if you really want to know), here's some examples of what we do and what you can expect.

You may have seen the Florida property tax calculator before. We struggled to explain how portability would affect individuals (including us — we have homes, too). So Karsten Ivey built a calculator to figure it out. It made his brain bleed a little, but the end result is simple to use and informative.

Some graphics just work better when you can play with the information. This Lake Okeechobee water level graphic lets you scroll on a timeline and watch lake levels change.

A Broward County and Palm Beach County home foreclosures graphic lets you investigate detailed information in your neighborhood. Go ahead, we'll wait.

You're back? Excellent! Did watch you the lunar eclipse in February? Well, we produced a total lunar eclipse graphic to help you plan your viewing.

Political junkie? We have you covered. We built a Florida primary election results map for the January primary. It updated every two minutes on election night. Look for more of these in November.

But we're not afraid to have fun.

Are you a snowbird? Did you come down and forget to leave? Well, we know there are somethings you can't help but miss. So check out our South Florida snowman builder. It's good for what ails you.

Or check out our Paper Airplane Garage. That's right, we actually got paid to play with paper airplanes so that you could too. Choose from several different models, customize their appearance then print them out and build 'em.

Well, now you've got an idea of the things we do.

Be sure to let us know what you think. And give us your ideas and requests. We'll try to so something with the best of them.

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Last night on "Dancing with the Stars", Jason Taylor used these basic fox trot steps to wow home viewers.

To learn more about ballroom dancing check out www.ballroomdancers.com. The site has diagrams, videos and other instructional information on all types dances, including the waltz, tango, cha cha, rumba, paso doble and the jive.

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