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July 2, 2008

Weather should cooperate for the Fourth

The price of gas keeps rising. The housing market keeps crumbling. And Starbucks is closing a bunch of its coffee shops.

This is really turning into the summer of our discontent, to loosely quote Shakespeare.

But, hey, Friday is the Fourth of July.

It’s an opportunity to put all the craziness aside for a day, enjoy a backyard barbecue and cast your eyes to the skies for some fireworks in the evening.

Now let’s hope the weather cooperates.

Friday’s forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies with a 40 percent chance of rain, mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms.

The rain chance drops to 30 percent in the evening.

Translated: Most of South Florida should have a rain-free Friday night.

“It looks so far like a reasonable chance that things should be fine for fireworks,” meteorologist Brad Diehl of the National Weather Service in Miami said.

By the way, there's a 60 percent chance of rain this afternoon and Thursday afternoon, and that includes the possibility of thunderstorms and dangerous lightning, the weather service said.

Meanwhile, that tropical wave in the far Eastern Atlantic could become a tropical depression within the next couple days, senior hurricane specialist James Franklin of the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County said.

It could even become a tropical storm, in which case it would be named Bertha. But again, for now, it’s nothing to worry about.

Forecast models are in agreement that it will remain at sea without threatening land – although those predictions could change after the system strengthens.

POSTED IN: Forecasts (173)

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July 1, 2008

Strong tropical wave in far Eastern Atlantic

A strong tropical wave has developed in the far Eastern Atlantic, and it has some potential to strengthen over the next few days, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County says.

Before you start throwing up shutters, it’s nothing to get worried about, at least not yet. It's just something to keep an eye on.

No models project it will become a hurricane, at least not any time soon, Dave Roberts, a Navy meteorologist assigned to the hurricane center said.

“Some gradual development is possible,” he said.

Two factors already are working against the system. For starters, it’s so close to the African coast that part of its disorganized center might be over land, Roberts said. If so, that would inhibit development.

Further, sea surface temperatures in that area are relatively cool, as it is still early July, he added. Tropical systems need a lot of heat to blossom.

Most computer models indicate the system will eventually drift north out to sea before it even comes close to land.

POSTED IN: Forecasts (173)

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June 30, 2008

We have Boris but not Natasha

Boris is my kind of tropical storm.

Other than having a cool name, which conjures up memories of Boris Karloff (the great actor who played roles such as Frankenstein in the 1930s) Boris is way the heck out in the Pacific Ocean, aiming even further out to sea, unlikely to do much more than whip up some waves and scare some fish.

I wish all of the tropical systems in the Atlantic would be as well behaved. But we all know better than that, don’t we?

The good news on this Monday morning is the tropical Atlantic remains nice and calm.

Which is normal for this time of year. On average, the first tropical storm doesn’t emerge until July 10.

Although we’ve already seen Tropical Storm Arthur, that was an aberration; it formed on May 31, a day before the official start of the season – and then amounted to nothing.

Now, in light of Boris, you might think the “N” storm in the Pacific this year would be named Natasha in honor of the Rocky and Bullwinkle Show.

But no ... it's Norbert (Nana in the Atlantic).


POSTED IN: Tropical Pacific (1)

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June 25, 2008

Marlins, Rays play environmentally friendly game -- sort of

The Florida Marlins and the Tampa Bay Rays were supposed to play a very environmentally friendly game of baseball last night as a prelude to Gov. Charlie Crist's Serve to Preserve Climate Change Summit, which starts in Miami today.

Indeed, it was billed by the guv as “the first carbon-neutral Major League Baseball game in the Southeast.” In other words, according to a press release, it wasn’t supposed to contribute to global warming.

To me, this implied there was going to be an effort to stem the amount of carbon dioxide – the king of greenhouse gases – that would be produced at the game.

And, according to the Marlins’ front office, more than 440 metric tons of carbon dioxide are produced at the average baseball game.

That mostly is the result of cars traveling to the stadium, but also is generated by stadium operations, team hotel accommodations and all the hot air that fans blow out, cheering and heckling the players.

So here I am thinking the Marlins were going to tell the fans to ride bikes to the stadium and keep their mouths shut for nine innings. Perhaps the grounds crew would forgo cutting the outfield grass (lawn mowers produce a load of carbon dioxide).

To keep player exertion to a minimum (to prevent hard-breathing, which produces carbon dioxide), I thought maybe guys like Hanley Ramirez, Dan Uggla and Jorge Cantu would not be allowed to run. They would only be allowed to walk, even if that hurt the pitchers’ ERAs.

I even thought the umps would be required to remain calm during the game.

But no, that’s not what happened.

Instead of these things, Gov. Crist instead plans to “off-set” the game’s “carbon footprint” by investing in reforestation projects in the Southeast.

Not exactly what I had in mind, but then again, it’s not such a bad idea.

By the way, I’m not sure how this fits into that carbon footprint, but the Marlins got smacked again last night, 6-4.

POSTED IN: Carbon footprint (1)

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June 24, 2008

Survey: Floridians fear global warming

Florida has become the epicenter of the global warming debate.

Or so it seems as a new survey finds that most Floridians are convinced that global warming is happening now – and officialdom should be doing more to deal with it.

The survey, conducted by researchers at Yale University and the University of Miami, polled 1,077 adults from May 1 to May 19.

Key findings:

-- 71 percent of Floridians are convinced that global warming is for real;

-- 55 percent think global warming is caused mainly by human activities; 13 percent think it is caused equally by humans and natural changes;

-- 65 percent believe that global warming is already having or will have dangerous impacts within the next 10 years;

-- 69 percent believe that parts of the state’s coasts may need to be abandoned due to rising sea levels over the next 50 years;

-- 80 percent think global warming will cause worse storms, hurricanes and tornadoes, as well as droughts and water shortages;

-- 68 percent think it will result in the flooding of major cities and food shortages;

-- 64 percent think it will result in less tourism;

-- 57 percent think it will increase rates of disease.

In other words, Floridians think this state is in a world of hurt.

But wait. There’s more.

The study also found that many people support state policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions – even if these policies impact their own pocketbook.

-- 65 percent support requiring electric utilities to produce at least 20 percent of their electricity from wind, solar or other renewable energy sources, even it if costs the average household an extra $100 per year;

-- 65 percent support a state subsidy to encourage building owners to replace old water heaters, air conditioners, light bulbs, and insulation, even if it cost the average household $5 a month in higher taxes;

-- 63 percent support the installation of solar panels on state-owned buildings, even if the electricity generated is significantly more expensive than what state government normally pays for its electricity.

Anthony Leiserowitz, director of the Yale University Project on Climate Change, said the upshot is most Floridians want Gov. Charlie Crist, state legislators and mayors to do more to stem global warming.

“Many Floridians also say they are willing to act individually to help reduce greenhouse gas emissions,” he said in a statement.

POSTED IN: Global warming (7)

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June 23, 2008

NOAA no longer "celebrating" lightning week

Quick note: This morning, I observed that it was a little weird that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration was "celebrating" Lightning Safety Awareness Week.

Since then, the agency has amended its press release to say: NOAA Marks Lightning Safety Week. I guess the higher-ups at the sprawling federal agency, headquartered in Washington, D.C., are reading my blog!

Or, better yet, maybe even the pres read my item and called NOAA Administrator Conrad Lautenbacher and said, "Admiral, you got a word that doesn't quite fit in your press release this morning."

It's nice to think I might wield such power inside the Beltway.

But NOAA didn't really need to make that change. I also noted that the agency's heart is in the right place -- the bottom line is that it wants us to play it safe when lightning is in the area.

POSTED IN: Lightning safety (2)

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Lightning: one of nature's most prolific killers

As we face yet another day, where afternoon thunderstorms – and lots of lightning strikes – are likely, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is “celebrating” Lightning Safety Awareness Week, June 22-28.

I know. That’s kind of a weird way to put it, “celebrating” one of nature’s most prolific killers, particularly here in Florida, the lightning capital of the nation.

But NOAA’s heart is in the right place.

Considering lightning kills an average of 62 people a year in the United States – with about 10 of those in Florida – the agency wants us to keep some safety tips in mind:

In a press release distributed today, it says:

“The only way to be safe during lightning is to be inside a substantial building or car. A building is safe if it is fully enclosed with a roof, walls, and floor, and contains wiring and plumbing throughout. Picnic shelters, dugouts, sheds and other partially open or small structures are not safe.”

Lightning flashes about 25 million times a year in the United States – with about 1 million of those in Florida – and each one is a potential killer, NOAA says.

Some other interesting facts, courtesy of the National Weather Service:

-- About 100,000 thunderstorms build in the United States each year;

-- Lightning is present in all thunderstorms;

-- A cloud-to-ground lightning strike, the most destructive form of lightning, occurs when the electrical difference between a thundercloud and the ground overcomes the insulating properties of the surrounding air;

-- Lightning has struck 10 miles away from the rain of a thunderstorm;

If you find yourself stuck outdoors during a thunderstorm, here are some more tips:

-- Do not seek shelter under tall or isolated trees. Lightning typically strikes the tallest object in an area.

-- Avoid open areas. You don’t want to be the tallest object.

-- Do not seek shelter under partially enclosed buildings

-- If you are camping, be ready to seek safe shelter in a vehicle or substantial building if a thunderstorm threatens. A tent offers no protection from lighting.

-- Stay away from metal fences and poles that could conduct lightning to you.

-- If you are on a boat, return to shore immediately and seek safe shelter.

For more information, here's a good link.

Today's forecast, by the way, calls for a 60 percent chance of rain with thunderstorms likely after 2 p.m., the National Weather Service in Miami said.

POSTED IN: Lightning safety (2)

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About the Author

KEN KAYE is a veteran journalist, having worked more than 30 years as a reporter, editor and columnist...

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