Jeff Mielcarz Weather Watch

Ida went from a Tropical Depression to a Hurricane in roughly 24 hours and if you are keeping track at home, this ranks right up there with one of the fastest intensifications on record. There are a few others who did it faster (no need to get into that here), but Ida ranks right on up there, which is pretty impressive.

That said, easy come easy go for this storm at least right now. I told you yesterday Ida didn’t have much time to intensify and now the storm has already been downgraded back to a tropical depression as it continues to weaken over land.

The center of circulation should stay over land for about the next 24 hours or so and whatever is left will reenter warmer waters giving Ida a chance to regenerate. Upper level winds are not particularly favorable for rapid strengthening so we’ll have to see what happens.

There are an awful lot of factors to consider with this storm, as some of the computer models do not even have the center surviving the interaction with land that the storm is currently undergoing.

Long story short I’ll be monitoring Ida’s progress all weekend and into next week as it may enter the Gulf of Mexico. As you can see from the forecast track, the latest run has the center a little further east this evening so as far as the sunshine state is concerned…we aren’t out of the woods yet this Hurricane Season…stay tuned!

After returning from a brief job up and down A1A, I feel like I didn't touch upon this danger enough during the show this morning. With the strong northeasterly to easterly winds today through the next couple of days. If you are beach bound please be aware of the moderate to high risk of rip currents.

Here is information everyone who lives here should have regarding rip currents:

http://www.ripcurrents.noaa.gov/signs/rip_brochure_final.pdf

Other than that we happen to have our eyes on two features in the tropics. I'll give you more information as the days go on - I'm still waiting to see if they develop.

Finally, I hope you enjoyed the brief kiss of fall because the heat and humidity are returning as the week progresses and by Saturday we'll be dealing with dew points in the low 70s with temperatures once again flirting with the 90s. You can put those snuggies away for another few days - you won't be needing them :-)!

Take care,
Jeff

How many people have asked you that? I actually just got a text from someone who was about to go to an OUTDOOR wedding where the ceremony is OUTSIDE (just to drive that point home) and starts at high noon! Whew - good luck out there because with the heat index already 94 at 10:14am and the dewpoint in the mid 70s it's going to be a HOT one today! Good luck with that hair and makeup girls, yikes!

I mean seriously, check out these national high temperatures. It looks like the sunshine state is the only place refusing to give into fall.

Anyway here's the big news flash for the day! Everyone get ready, there’s a cold front coming…(wait for it)…on Saturday! Meanwhile, temperatures will still be close to record highs and lows through tomorrow with plenty of sunshine throughout South Florida.

And this sentence is for everyone who tells you it rains everyday here - not true - Isolated morning showers across eastern areas and isolated afternoon showers across western and interior areas should be just about all she wrote thanks to the subsidence (sinking air) in the region inhibiting thunderstorm formation. And that's about all she wrote. So I know a lot of people are complaining about the high temperatures (trust me I've never gotten so much email since I got here). But, think of it this way, it’s better than snow right?

Also, I'm taking a poll. Some seem to take issue with me describing the weather here this past week as "nice". I mean don't get me wrong, I realize it is hot as blazes out there as I'm originally from CT where I think both of my parents are already in winter coats. But I've always just used nice to describe sunny skies without a high chance of rain. I'm open to suggestions! Until then, it's going to be nice pretty much for most of the week ahead of that cold front so make sure you keep hydrated everyone!

Take care,
Jeff

PS - I'm always looking for your weather or lifestyle outside pics. Send them to me at jeff@southflorida.com and I'll use em on the air and/or throw them into these blogs.

Well it’s been a good 24 hours or so for Henri. Just about 26 hours ago (I’m writing this at 6:48 for anyone playing at home … and yes watching the Yankees game), Henri was officially named and now he’s struggling to survive. Here, see for yourself:

Strong upper level winds are quite literally ripping the storm apart and most reliable models don’t forecast Henri surviving past tomorrow (Thursday). These strong winds have pushed most of the heavy thunderstorm activity to the east (never a good sign). Long story short, this storm has little time left to live.

THAT SAID, (because I always seem to have a “that said” in these blogs), the upper level winds which are currently raging up to 25 knots over the system are forecast to die down over the next three days or so. So even after Henri is no longer officially Henri we are going to have to continue monitoring it’s progress as regeneration may be possible as conditions become more favorable.

Here is the updated official forecast track through Friday afternoon and as you can see the National Hurricane Center has the storm being downgraded by 2pm Thursday.

In other tropical news, we are tracking a new area to the southeast of Henri about 825 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands. I’ll be keeping my eyes on this area, but development (if at all) should be slow to occur. I’ll be tracking anything and everything to do with the tropics in the Atlantic first thing tomorrow morning at 5am on Southflorida.com/LIVE. I guess that really wouldn’t be considered first thing in the morning by some, but you catch my meaning!

As for South Florida the weather forecast continues to be pretty simple. I say simple because it’s been the same for a while as high pressure continues to sit over us with its claws in us. So you can expect another hot, humid day with temperatures feeling like they are easily in the triple digits. One of these days we’ll get a break from the AC (January anyone). Take care and thanks as always for reading.

Well well well, here we go again … what do computer models know anyway?! Even after days of most reliable computer models not developing Invest 91 – here we have Henri out of what appears to be nowhere. In the span of one day when I went on the air the National Hurricane Center had said there was a moderate chance of development, then a low chance and then finally a high chance before issuing the first official discussion at 5pm.

Now here’s the key – there’s a really good chance that Henri is a one and done kind of storm, meaning in 24 hours the storm may be downgraded to a tropical depression. If you don’t believe me, check out what Henri looks like for yourself:

As you can see there is a large amount of wind shear affecting the system and forcing all the heavy thunderstorm activity to the east of the system (so it’s not looking very tropical is it?) This shear is forecast to continue and the thought here is that it will eventually tear the circulation apart within 48 hours.

However, there’s always a what if. In this case the what if is that the shear on the projected path is forecast to become less after 3 days. So SHOULD the circulation maintain itself through that time period there’s a chance Henri could make it. In addition, even if Henri is downgraded to a remnant low there’s still always a chance for regeneration sometime over the weekend. Then of course there’s always the chance the system is swept up to the north and is of no concern. Lots of possibilities as always and Henri bears watching even though the outlook is grim for the storm.

I’ll be tracking Henri LIVE all morning on Southflorida.com/LIVE starting at 5am. Come check us out for the latest information as it becomes available.

By the way, congratulations on making it to the middle of your workweek. Are you getting tired of people asking, “hey, is it hot enough for ya”? The answer for just about anyone is going to be yes. Mother Nature here in South Florida isn’t quite ready to roll out the red carpet for fall just yet even though your friends and family to the north are taking out the fall jackets. Heat indexes will remain in the triple digits for the next couple of days and I’m not looking for any kind of real cool down until early next week, and even then temperatures will remain in the upper 80s.

But I digress, here’s the forecast track for Henri (as short as it is):

Also, here’s a random aside, got the new KISS record and if you ever liked em in the 70s (thanks Uncle Phil) it’s remarkable how much like old KISS it sounds like. Just thought I’d share that with you.

Good evening everyone, I tell ya - I'm watching these packages roll on Brett on Monday Night Football and there's more drama here than a scripted episode of General Hospital (little shout out to my mom there as she painfully watched that while growing up). Anyway, many of us went to bed last night happy the Dolphins won without an eye on the tropics (it's been quiet) - low and behold we wake up and are introduced to Grace!

Check out how far north this storm is - look out Europe - here she comes:

Grace - she's an interesting storm - you generally do not see tropical storms form this far in the northeast Atlantic (although some have formed as far north). The storm is really trucking off to the north, and by the time many of you read this in the morning chances are she'll be gone if not on her last leg - though I will tell you - for as far north Grace held it together pretty well today. That said, water temps are cooling quickly which will spell the eventual demise of this system.

So hello Grace ... good bye Grace.

Now, after the quietest Atlantic Tropical September since 1997, as I say every morning, we aren't out of the woods yet. An area about 875 miles away from the Lesser Antilles is showing some signs of development today. All morning and into the afternoon thundershowers are becoming a little better organized. Water temperatures are warm enough and wind shear is low enough (for now) that further development is possible over the next week.

Should the system strengthen quickly it will likely be steered to the north in the Central Atlantic, if it stays disorganized and weak it should continue on this west/northwest path at about 10-15 MPH for a while.

So we'll be watching this system, other than that things appear quiet! Ok it's time to get back to the game - have a great week everyone!

-j

...Well numero 8 - it was fun while it lasted! As I mentioned last night, tropical depression 8 had roughly 12 hours to make something happen ... seeing as how that didn't happen, well as you can see:

Tropical Depression 8 is dying off as I type this and all is once again right with the world.

Unfortunately for us in South Florida, it looks like the chance of precipitation has increased and everyone on the east coast is likely to see a thundershower or two tomorrow afternoon. Hopefully you were able to enjoy some nice outside time today. We dry things out next week Tuesday and Wednesday as a front approaches.

Have a great rest of your weekend everyone!

Well - so much for "reliable" computer models ... looks like the feature we've been keeping our eyes on the past couple of days formed enough convection to be upgraded to a tropical depression. That said - don't get too used to it though because time is short for this storm.

As I type this (which by the way I should be sleeping), the depression has under about 12 hours to strengthen into a Tropical Storm - should that not happen by the close of business on Saturday ... then it's not going to happen.

Cooler waters among other things will end up weakening the depression to a remnant low over the next few days so there is no threat to land.

Don't let this guy ruin your first full week of fall South Florida - it's going to be a great weekend so get out there and enjoy it! Should anything change, I'll be the first to let you know however for now - time to lapse into the unconscious world for 12-14 hours :-)! Take care!

Wow, with the first day of fall waiting in the wings, things are remarkably quiet in the tropics. Let's hope they stay that way! Should anything bear watching, I'll be first to report it here ... til then - FINS UP! See you all at Land Shark Stadium in a couple of hours!

Shower activity associated with the remnants of Fred has diminished this afternoon, so much to the point that the hurricane hunter recon mission was cancelled. Fred was about 475 miles east-northeast of the Bahamas (little close to us huh) a of 2pm. The remnants are moving to the northwest so it looks like Fred will approach South Carolina early in the week. We’ll keep our eyes Fred as there’s still a SLIGHT chance something may get this thing going again, but it seems unlikely.

The other main disturbance we are following that I was talking about on the show Friday is currently about 1200 miles east of the Winward islands. Once again shower activity has diminished with this system over the afternoon. However, environmental conditions do appear moderately favorable which is why the National Hurricane Center is giving this area a moderate chance for development. There’s a bunch of dry air to the north of the system and once again (as in past disturbances this season) this dry air is inhibiting development. That said, Monday it looks like wind shear will pick up which should hurt Invest 98’s chances to become anything more than a weak Tropical Storm (if it even gets that far). In addition, steering currents will turn the system north keeping it far far away from the Eastern US.

So there you go, as we go into the 4th week of September (which is again generally a pretty active time of hurricane season), lets keep our fingers crossed that things remain quiet the next couple of months. Have a great weekend everyone, now lets try to get rid of these thunderstorms that are plaguing South Florida this weekend!

Keep track of the tropics LIVE every weekday morning starting at 5am on Southflorida.com/LIVE.