WGN Weather Center Blog

January 2005, which ended at midnight last night, failed to produce a single official 0° reading. Only 30 other Januarys in the city over the past 135 years have done that! Despite the month’s 29.1” of snow at Midway Airport, the fourth heaviest there since observations began in 1928, the month’s 24.5° average temperature finished 2.5° above normal.
The Midwest’s access to frigid arctic air has been severed for the time being by a shift in the jet stream pattern across North America. Gone are the northwest steering winds responsible for the chill of recent weeks. Two westerly jet streams are now in place—one over the Gulf, the other in southern Canada—each bypassing Chicago and Midwest. It’s a pattern which is to allow a sprawling high pressure to sit over the region the remainder of the week.
Kansas City was hit by snow early Monday—up to 10” of it in that city’s southern suburbs. The eastbound disturbance dissipated before reaching Chicago.

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Chicago is transitioning to February in the midst of a milder, tranquil weather pattern after a very snowy month that brought two major snowstorms to the city. Temperatures topped the freezing mark both days this weekend and the week ahead promises more melting as temps push 40º by the end of the week. Were it not for the remnant snow pack on the ground, temperatures in the upcoming week would be headed for 50º instead of the expected highs in the 30s and lower 40s. The mild weather will not last however, and wintry conditions are expected to return by next weekend as a shift in the jet stream brings a blast of arctic air followed by a trailing clipper system that could bring the city another round of snow.

More than a hundred thousand residents of the Southeast remained without power in the wake of a major ice storm that raked the area over the weekend. However, rebounding temps are expected to quickly remove all traces of the weekend glazing.

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Winter’s grip on Chicago will relax a bit in the upcoming week with the possibility for seven consecutive days with highs above freezing. Though maximum temperatures early in the week will be capped in the middle 30s, afternoon highs by the end of the week should climb into the lower 40s resulting in a marked decline in the area’s ample snow pack.

While the Chicago area is thawing, Atlanta along with much of the Southeast is reeling from the effects of a major ice storm. At least one-quarter inch of ice accumulated in the Atlanta area Saturday, knocking out power and shutting down every interstate in the area. Air traffic was crippled as hundreds of flights were canceled and there were at least three traffic fatalities.
As January, 2005 enters the record books, the month will be remembered for its snow—the 9 days with an inch or more of snowfall, two major snowstorms and a monthly snow total that will approach 30 inches.

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January 2005’s final weekend has arrived‚—and with a temperature rebound underway! Readings by Friday afternoon reached 27° here—quite an improvement over the 2° low here which tied for this winter’s third coldest. It was areas just east of the city which bore the brunt of the arctic air. Valparaiso, Ind., bottomed out at -3° early in the day—but, in Michigan, Alpena established a new record with its -16° low and Flint hit -11°. Other records included -16° at Albany, -18° at Syracuse and -27° at Watertown—all in New York state.
The Deep South was in the grip of a winter storm late Friday. Ice accumulations up to 0.5” were predicted from Atlanta and Augusta, Ga., east into the Carolinas.
Moist air running up and over the retreating arctic air mass is behind Chicago’s cloud cover and predicted snowy spells Saturday. A second system could bring some more snow early next week.

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Chicagoans are getting just a taste Friday morning of the frigid arctic air mass responsible for heartstopping -30° morning lows yesterday from northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan to interior New England. Fresh snow and light winds facilitated the temperature crash. In the Upper Midwest, readings were among this winter’s coldest, bottoming out at -32° at Petosky, -31° at Indian River, -30° at Elmira in northern Michigan while nearby Eagle River, Wis. hosted -26°. The southern flank of that bitter air mass has produced single digits in the city early Friday for only the 13th time this winter while sub-0° readings cover lower Michigan and northern Indiana at daybreak. New England is the region most directly affected by the chill. Watertown in Upstate New York recorded a record-breaking -32° low Thursday morning, “warming” to just +4° in the afternoon. Windchills in the Northeast held to -45° at some locations.

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Thursday dawns with lake-effect clouds still generating snow showers and flurries over parts of the area. But, the atmospheric set-up responsible for the snowfall is to break down. Temps aloft are beginning to warm—a development which in time is to extinguish the upwelling of air critical to lake snow formation. In addition, surface winds are to change direction. Instead of blowing from the NE, a trajectory which brings them over 90-plus miles of open lake water, the flow will become SE this afternoon and evening. This dramatically reduces the air’s contact with water, shutting down the lake snow’s moisture supply.
More than 2” had fallen by late Wednesday evening at Schererville, Ind., and Beach Park (near Waukegan), while just 0.8” fell at Midway. Spotty accumulations in excess of 4” are likely in the hardest hit areas close to the lake.
Out East, hard-hit Boston recorded another 4.5” Wednesday bringing its January total to 42.2”—the greatest amount ever observed there for the month.

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It hasn’t been as warm here as Tuesday afternoon’s 43° since a 47° high two weeks ago on January 13. Absent the area’s heavy snow cover, temperatures would have surged into the mid 50s! The mild spell effortlessly lopped 5” off one of the area’s heaviest late January snowpacks in years. At Midway Airport, the 14” cover Sunday shrunk to 9” by late Tuesday evening. But, the country’s real warmth Tuesday was in the Plains where new high temp records were established—among them 65° at Grand Island and 66° at North Platte—both in Nebraska.

Wednesday is to be the last day until next October 30 to produce a pre-5pm sunset thanks to lengthening days. The trend toward longer days has been ongoing for more than a month. In fact, Chicagoans now enjoy 52 minutes more sunlight than back on Dec. 21—the city’s shortest day and also the official start of winter.

-Tom Skilling

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J. Kleeman sent us these pictures from last weekend's snowstorm -- he even was kind enough to write some captions for these photos. Thanks J. for the images!

This was northbound Buffalo Grove Road at Bernard Drive In Buffalo Grove taken at 7:50 a.m. Saturday the 22nd. County plows in a "conga line" are clearing the northbound lanes in one pass.

A driveway at 9:30 a.m. Saturday during a lake-effect snow squall.

A picture of a snow-blanketed street in Buffalo Grove.

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With Chicago’s 2004-05 seasonal snow tally now at 30.4” in the wake of this weekend’s big storm (11.2” at O’Hare and 12.9” at Midway), the area has exceeded by nearly half a foot the 24.8” which fell all of last snow season. January, with 24.6” of snow to date, has become the city’s 4th snowiest since 1885. Even the snow which covers the ground is turning into one for the books. The 8” of snow on the ground here late Monday is the greatest cover of snow observed on a Jan. 24 since the 24” snowpack observed in 1979. (Note: There have been more recent January dates with heavier Chicago snowpacks, among them the 18” measured in the wake of the 21.6” snowstorm Jan. 1-3, 1999 and the 11” snow cover which remained after a foot of snow fell Jan. 30-31, 2002).
The chilliest weather in 2 years gripped Florida Monday morning. Temps fell to 31° at Tampa, 33° at Orlando, and 43° at Miami. Daytime highs only reached 59° at Tampa, a reading below the 69° recorded at Rapid City, S.D.

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Above-freezing temperatures today and a chance of showers tonight will start to work on the current 6-12”-plus snow cover across the region. Cold temperatures midweek will stall the process, but thawing may pick up momentum next weekend with readings well into the 30s and a strong likelihood of more substantial rains. Should this scenario occur, the snow melt combined with significant rains could create runoff/flood problems the first part of the following week. Soils are saturated and frozen down to a 6-inch depth; add warming and rain, and flood-prone areas could be in real trouble.
Meanwhile, New England will try to dig out of a paralyzing 10-20” snowfall that reached 3-foot depths in Massachusetts.
Cold air has spread into the South with hard freeze warnings in effect this morning along the Gulf Coast and most of Florida.

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Nearly a foot of snow fell in downtown Chicago Saturday. This shot was taken from a Loop roof deck Sunday morning.

Photo by Jay and Jodi Kahn

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Northeast Illinois awoke Saturday to a heavy snow cover that was continuing to build. As the day progressed northerly winds gusting consistently over 35 miles per hour whipped and drifted falling and already fallen snow. As the storm center moved east, and winds became more east of north, the Lake Michigan “snow machine” kicked in. Bursts of snow dumped an additional 3 to 6 inches as far inland as DuPage County. Whiteout conditions along Chicago’s Lake Shore Drive forced its temporary closing late Saturday afternoon. Most of the city proper received a foot of snow with Wrigleyville reporting 15 inches. The storm raged on as it moved quickly through Ohio and Pennsylvania continuing to dump up to a foot of snow far to the north of its path. The storm was expected to further intensify off the New Jersey coast and blizzard warning were issued for a good portion of New England including New York and Boston where snowfalls up to 20 inches were forecast.

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Be careful out there

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After a final brief burst of heavy snow in the past hour, it appears that the snow is finally over in the northwest and far north suburbs. As the storm moves on the east preparing to clobber the major cities of the Northeast with a full blown nor'easter, upper-level winds over Lake Michigan are shifting from the northeast to the north allowing the lake effect snow bands to shift south and head for the south end of Lake Michigan. While the snow is ending in northern sections, this scenario means several more hours of lake effect snow for areas near the south end of the lake and many more hours of snow for northwest Indiana.

Total snowfall as measured at my home in Arlington Heights was just over 12 inches. Eight inches fell overnight from the storm itself and another 4+ inches fell today from lake effect snow.

January snowfall here now totals 27.7 inches with more than a week to go in the month. The January 4-6 storm brought more than 11 inches of to this area and this latest event a little more than 12 inches.

Steve Kahn WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune Meteorologist

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Right now, the eastern portion of the Chicago area is in midst of a classic lake effect snow event. When a band of heavy snow moves in the visibility drops to near zero and the snow falls at a rate of 1-2 inches per hour. After about 15 or 20 minutes the band passes through, the snow becomes quite light and the visibility improves to 2 or 3 miles. At times there is even a hint of some sun trying to break through the snowy overcast.

In Arlington Heights snowfall from the storm system itself totaled about 8 inches as of 7 a.m. this morning. Now with the additional lake effect, another 3 or 4 inches of snow have fallen with the storm total here approaching one foot. Northeast winds are becoming strong and gusty and blowing and drifting is starting to become a serious problem.

At noon the radar indicated that these lake effect snow bands extended at least as far north as Green Bay, Wisconsin, so periods of lake effect snow should continue well into the afternoon hours until the snow bands finally pull east of the area.

Steve Kahn WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune Meteorologist

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Well, part one of this storm is history. Eight inches of new snow is on the ground in Arlington Heights this morning and a massive snow removal job awaits. For the record, it is always easier for a forecaster to clear "forecast" snow than a "surprise" snow.

It doesn't look like this will be the end of the snowstorm. Lake effect snow is reving up in eastern Wisconsin this morning and shortly after daybreak Milwaukee reported the visibility near zero in heavy lake effect snow squalls. It looks like another snow removal effort will be needed this afternoon after part two of this storm-the lake effect portion- comes to an end.

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Not since the 12” in January 30-31, 2002 has a storm generated more snow here. Truly big snows are actually relatively infrequent here. Of the 2,546 measurable snows since official measurements were first archived by the National Weather Service here in 1885, only 80 have generated 8”+ accumulations--and just 20 of those have produced 12”+ totals. That means a 12” or greater snow occurs on average only once every 6 years. Should the final storm total in the current system reach one foot at O’Hare—an outcome dependent on the amount of lake snow which occurs Saturday—it would become only the fourth time in the past 26 years that a 12” snowfall has occurred here.

Final snow tallies in this storm are likely to reach 9-13”. But, another 2-4” is likely to occur inland Saturday with greater amounts possible in bursts of snowfall off the lake. That could mean totals in excess of 13”occur in the hardest hit areas close to Lake Michigan.

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Tom Skilling and the staff at the WGN Weather Center (Bill Snyder, Paul Dailey and Tom Valle) prepare forecasts and graphics for the Friday evening weather broadcast and tomorrow's Chicago Tribune weather report.

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Keenan Smith preparing to go on air Friday on CLTV

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WGN Weather Center's very own weather producer Bill Snyder is ready for the storm! Bill purchased a monster snow blower this week that is sure to gobble up the snow. This photo of his snow blower was sent to us via Bill's new wireless picture phone.

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All is go for a major snowstorm Friday night into Saturday and
Saturday evening, with steady snow likely to reach the city between
5-7pm this evening---then fall steadily, and at times heavily, much of
the night. Total snow yields from this system appear likely to
challenge those of the winter's previous big snow back on January 4-6
which produced 9.8" of snow at O'Hare. 6-8" of snow is to accumulate
by morning with more occasional snowfall continuing, but at more
varied intensities Saturday--at times falling as light snow and
flurries, at other times--especially in the city and the counties
adjacent to Lake Michigan where lake enhanced snowfall is to occur as
the day proceeds---heavier intensities are possible. And, 8-10" seems
a good bet as the storm system's contribution to accumulation
here---with another 3-5" of lake-effect snowfall not out of the
question Saturday into Saturday night in sections of the counties
closest to Lake Michigan (i.e. Lake, Cook, eastern DuPage and parts of
Will county in Illinois and Lake and Porter Counties in Indiana). The
arrival of lake-effect snow appears likely to begin occurring mid or
late morning Saturday then increase at times in both frequency and
intensity in the afternoon and evening. A lot of lake ice has banked
up against Lake Michigan's western shoreline and this cuts down on the
amount of open lake water able to feed moisture in the atmosphere,
making the amount of lake snow which occurs in a mid-season storm like
this one a little problematic. But, a steep temp decline with
altitude (a condition referred to by meteorologists as "instability")
is to set up later Saturday morning and afternoon just as winds begin
blowing more from the NNE rather than the SE, increasing the "fetch"
(distance) over which they travel before streaming into the city. This
increases the time spent over lake water and the chance to pick up
moisture on the trek into lakeside areas of northeast Illinois and far
northwest Indiana. At the same time all this is happening, a vigorous
upper air disturbance is to pass over the area, increasing the "lift"
which helps generate clouds and snow. The confluence of all these
factors is behind the expectation that lake snow may provide
potentially significant additional accumulations to Saturday's snow.

Another factor likely to take on significance is wind. Fairly
moderate winds will accompany much of this storm's steady "system"
snow. But, as the storm deepens and a 1045 mb (30.86") arctic high
dives with arctic air into the Plains, powerful winds with gusts 30+
mph are likely to take hold Saturday afternoon and evening. The
comparatively fluffy nature of this storm's snow (with a 15 to 1 snow
to water ratio likely rather than the usual 10 to 1 ratio because of
the cold temps at which snow will occur in this system) may more
easily become airborne. This raises the specter of blowing and
drifting, particularly in open areas and areas along Lake Michigan, as
Saturday afternoon and evening proceeds. Single digits temps will
plunge into the area over the fresh snowpack Saturday night--with near
0-degree lows possible in colder west suburban locations (i.e. the Fox
Valley area).

All in all, a fascinating meteorological situation which we'll
continue updating here, on our WGN-TV programs and in the Chicago
Tribune.

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The early afternoon sunshine has faded and lowering and thickening cloudiness is overspreading the city. The barometer is falling and there is a growing sense of urgency and anticipation knowing what is about to happen. Snow has already begun to fall in southwest Wisconsin and far northwest Illinois and should reach Chicago after dark. By this time Saturday, a lot of snow is likely to be on the ground and it will be badly blown and drifted about by strong winds.

Meteorologists have conflicting feelings about these storms. They know that a storm of this magnitude will cause trouble and hardship for millions of people and unfortunately probably take a few lives. Yet, it is their storm. They have watched it develop and evolve over many days, while putting all of their meteorological expertise on the line in trying to correctly forecast it and warn the public. They want to be right, but being right will mean big trouble.

Well, as stated before, the weather will do whatever it wants, no matter what the forecast is so...

Let the snow begin!

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Periods of snow here Thursday, totaling 1.5” at O’Hare, 1.6” at La Grange, 1.7” Oak Lawn and as much as 2.5” at one location the city’s northwest side, have pushed the seasonal snow tally to more than twice the levels observed a year ago. Since the current season began, 19.2” has fallen at O’Hare—13.7” of it this month alone, well above the 11.3” full January norm. The nearly 20” on the books to date is 2.5 times the 7.6” a year ago.

Barring last minute storm track changes—a perennial possibility in the complex world of Midwest winter weather—the city may be on the way to its second +7” snowfall this month beginning this evening. Though it’s conceivable snowfall may break temporarily between the steady snows generated by the storm Friday night/Sat. morning and the lake snows due here Saturday afternoon and evening, final storm totals may reach 5-7”—heavier lakeside.
-Tom Skilling

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Once again Chicago is under the "snow-gun". Winter storm watches have been posted for the entire metropolitan area from late Friday through late Saturday as another winter storm, this one dubbed an "Alberta Clipper" because of its speed and origin in the western-most Canadian prairie province, takes aim at the city.

Alberta Clippers tend to move southeastward along the boundary between cold arctic air and milder Pacific air. These storms usually don't produce excessively large snowfalls because they lack Gulf of Mexico moisture, but they frequently are accompanied by strong winds which cause a lot of blowing and drifting of the snow.

WEATHER PAGE ARCHIVES
For some background material on the Alberta Clipper, we are attaching an Ask Tom Why question from 2002 along with a Tribune weather page feature from several winters ago that highlighted this type of snowstorm.

March 4, 2002

Dear Tom, What is an “Alberta Clipper”?
Thomas Sporer, Glenview

Dear Thomas, An Alberta Clipper is a fast-moving storm originating in western Canada (usually in or near the province of Alberta) that speeds southeast into the Plains and Midwest, often accompanied by significant snowfall. Because these storms develop in an area characterized by low temperatures and little moisture, the snow has a low water content usually in the snow/water ratio range of 20:1. The storms are frequently accompanied by strong winds and poor visibility, and are followed by falling temperatures. The storm generally produces a short-duration snowfall of less than six inches. The term Alberta Clipper came into use in the early 1970s after the publication of a paper on Midwest snowstorms by the chief of the Milwaukee weather office, Bill Harms, and premier snow forecaster the late Al Morrison.
Copyright © 2005, WGN-TV

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January has hosted the Chicago area’s three biggest snowstorms—the infamous 1967 Blizzard (23.0”) and the megasnows of 1979 (20.7”) and 1999 (21.6”). Significant snow accumulations are no stranger here this time of year. Even without a truly mammoth snowstorm to its credit, the month has tallied a total of 12” of snow to date, making it one for the books. The amount is already more than the 11.3” considered normal in an entire January. The opening 19 days of the month now qualify as the 15th snowiest of any January 1-19 period since official measurements began in 1885.

Another 1-2” is predicted in Thursday’s snowy periods. But, Friday night and Saturday is the period being closely monitored for the next significant snowfall here. An accumulation of 7” or more would mark only the third time in 121 years the city has been hit by two 7” or greater snows in a single January. (The first occurred Jan. 4-6, 2005 and totaled 9.8”).
-Tom Skilling

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Chicago’s winter weather has moved into a decidely snowier phase. The area recorded Winter, 2004-05’s third-heaviest snowfall overnight, the final flurries of which could linger at some locations into Wednesday’s opening hours. By late Tuesday, snowfalls with the system had reached 4.5” at International Falls and 3.8” at Duluth, Minn. to Chicago’s northwest.

The snow comes on the heels of a cold January period—one of only 23 here over the last 135 years which have produced 15° or colder daytime highs over four consecutive days.
Tuesday marked the 10th day on which temps failed to reach 20°. By this time last year, only two such days had occurred. To our north, LaCrosse, Wisconsin recorded a morning low of -7°—-its 6th straight day with sub-zero temperatures there.

Record warmth made news Tuesday in the Pacific Northwest. In Oregon, temps reached 66° in Portland and 67° at Eugene.
-Tom Skilling

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Before temperatures surge into the low 20s Tuesday, Chicagoans will have shivered through 108 consecutive hours of sub-15� readings which began at midnight Thursday night/Friday morning. It�s only the 11th time since 1871 that four consecutive days in mid-January have hosted temps of 15� or lower. The past four days have averaged only 8.5��more than 15.5 degrees below normal and the 14th coolest mid-January period here in 135 years. Monday�s 11� high was Chicago�s coldest since the 3� high a year ago on Jan. 30.
The chill plunged deep into Florida where wind chill advisories accompanied predicted upper 20� lows overnight.
Meanwhile, space weather forecasters continue monitoring a mammoth sunspot which on Monday grew to the size of Jupiter on our sun�s surface. Huge solar flares have emanated from the area of solar storminess and auroral displays continue a better than normal possibility here on Earth.

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Chicago�s current cold snap will begin to ease Tuesday as temperatures creep back into the 20s after four days with highs in the 10� to 15� range as the massive arctic high pressure area that brought the cold weather moves to the eastern United States.
That arctic high brought the coldest weather in nearly a decade to portions of the northern Plains and upper Midwest. One of the coldest spots has been Aberdeen, S.D., where record weekend cold sent lows to -35� on Friday, -25� Saturday and -30� Sunday.
The price for warmer weather will be an increasing threat of snow as a series of storm systems move across the Midwest. The first system should primarily affect areas north of Chicago Tuesday night and Wednesday, but the next system arriving Thursday night should track further south and could bring several inches of snow to Chicago before it moves east of the area early Saturday.

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