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November 30, 2005

December’s first week to average 12° below normal

Thursday’s 27° high was the chilliest close to a meteorological autumn here in 22 years—since a 24° high on Nov. 30, 1983. That this past season closed as chilly as it did is ironic, considering the three month period from September through November finished well above normal—the 19th warmest of any since 1871.
The chill sets the tone for December’s opening week, expected to average nearly 12° below normal. North winds behind a series of vigorous, snow-producing disturbances predicted to sweep the area in the coming week, pull successively colder lobes of arctic air into the Midwest off a vast reservoir of frigid air which covers the central U.S. and north. These cold pushes promise to produce a succession of daily temperature deficits through at least next week. If predicted temperatures verify over the next seven days, December, 2005’s opening may rank among the Top 10 coldest on the books here.

Temperature Update

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Three Snow Systems

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Naming Tropical Storms Outside of Season

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November 29, 2005

December’s snowiest open in 26 years possible

Despite Wednesday’s emerging sunshine, the arrival of new clouds later today signals the approach of what is likely to be the first in a series of snow systems starting late Wednesday night. By Thursday morning, as December 2005 and the first hours of meteorological winter arrive, 1-2” of snow may fall. Given the strong upper air features and cold temperatures accompanying this system, it’s even possible a few 2-3” totals may occur. Such accumulations would be the heaviest recorded the first day of December since 2.7” fell 26 years ago in 1979.
Factoring in the day’s blustery SW winds, Tuesday’s temperature plunge produced a level of chill which felt 44° colder. Actual thermometer readings plummeted from 61° to 28° in just 30 hours from noon Monday to 6 p.m. Tuesday. The pullback was the equivalent of the decline in normal temperatures which takes place between late October and mid-January.
--Tom Skilling

Snow-Generating Systems

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Arctic Air Across North America

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Measuring the Distance from The Earth to the Sun

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November 28, 2005

Plains blizzard: Drifts 4-6 ft. high, gusts to 80 m.p.h.

The weather was in rare form here with 60° temperatures Monday—but downright brutal across the Plains, a region lashed by blizzard conditions. So fierce were wind gusts there that dust and soil were mixed with the falling and blowing snow. Goodland, Kan. recorded its 9th windiest day ever since 1896, logging 64 m.p.h. wind gusts. At nearby Ruleton, winds reached hurricane force, topping out at 77 m.p.h. Flagler, Colo. clocked 79 m.p.h. winds. Farther east, sections of northeast Nebraska were coated with a thick layer of ice after 1” of freezing rain and sleet hit the area only to be followed by 8-13” of snow whipped by 50-60 m.p.h. gusts. Topping reports of snowfall was the 14” reported at Gregory, South Dakota. There, 50+ m.p.h. winds built 5 ft. drifts.
Chicago’s 61° high Monday morning was only the 89th reading in 135 years to pass 60° this late in the season. Of the 4,590 total highs at or above 60° on the books here since 1871, fewer than 2% occur November 28 or later.

Wintry Weather

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Snowfall in the Coming Week

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High/Low Temperatures in Chicago

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Blizzard in Plains Monday

Blizzard conditions seriously hampered travel Monday across a wide swath of the central and northern Plains. These pictures tell the story, capturing the fury of the late autumn storm's winds over western Kansas. Lead Forecaster Mick McGuire of the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Goodland, Kansas is good enough to share these with us. He snapped them in the midst of the storm's howling backside winds just before midday. The 3-4" which fell there were whipped into drifts 3.5 feet high by winds which gusted from 60-77 mph. Meteorologist Al Pietrycha, formerly of the Chicago NWS Forecast Office and now in the Goodland Office, tells us he's not easily impressed by wind gusts under 100 mph. But, Monday's winds were among the exceptions. He noted that wind gusts reached 79 mph at Flagler, Colorado--to the west of Goodland. "I've never had my electrical power go on and off so many times in one day," said Pietrycha of Monday's storm. He tells us the winds of Monday's blizzard far exceeded the BIG blizzards he had experienced in Connecticut in 1977 and Colorado in 1997.

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November 27, 2005

Readings to plunge more than 40 degrees this week

Chicago’s windy, rainy warmth this morning will be short-lived as a sharp temperature downturn begins this afternoon when a strong cold front passes through the city. High temperatures the rest of the week will get no higher than the 30s, and overnight lows will drop into the 20s and eventually into the teens. Flurries are likely here on Tuesday with prospects for a shot of light snow with a system passing through the city on Thursday.
On Sunday afternoon, an intense low brought a rash of twisters to the central Plains, while blizzard conditions raged in areas to the west.
As many as 15 twisters struck on the warm east side of the storm in eastern Kansas with several reports of property damage. On the storm’s cold western flank, heavy snowfall and strong winds created blizzard conditions that resulted in a 25-car pile-up that shut down portions of Interstate 70 in eastern Colorado.

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CHICAGO’S COLDEST WINTER TEMPERATURES

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SNOW AND WINDCHILL

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November 26, 2005

High winds to blow warmth in and out of town

A strong late-autumn storm taking shape in the central Plains this morning will take Chicago’s temperatures on a wild roller coaster ride today through Monday. Boosted by increasingly strong southeast and south winds, readings will surge into the lower 60s later today and hold in the 50s tonight as waves of showers and even some thunderstorms roll through the city. South winds will howl Sunday night, gusting above 40 m.p.h. with the risk of damaging winds as potentially severe thunderstorms rock the city around daybreak Monday.
Temperatures will drop steadily Monday and Monday night back to more seasonable levels in the 20s and 30s.
Areas west and north of Chicago face a much different fate from this storm. Winter storm watches and warnings are posted across portions of seven states from Nebraska to Upper Michigan for a wintry potpourri of heavy snow and freezing precipitation.

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TOTALLY CLOUDY DAYS AT CHICAGO

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WHY DEW FORMS

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November 25, 2005

South winds ejecting chill, set stage for 50-degree surge

Ongoing atmospheric changes as Saturday gets under way eject frigid arctic air and put in motion a dramatic 50-degree three-day temperature surge. The warming is the equivalent of a move from January to late April, only it’s condensed over a fraction of the time. From Friday morning’s 13° reading, temperatures surge to 45° Saturday and to 62° Sunday afternoon or evening. That’s shy of Sunday’s 67° record high set in 1990, but it’s still an eye-popping 20 degrees above normal—mild enough to rank among late November’s top 15 percent warmest readings on record since 1871. Friday’s 25° high was the second coldest for Nov. 25 in 135 years.
Mild air surging over retreating arctic air produced Friday evening’s dusting to 1” of snow here. But, far larger snow totals have been reported downwind of the Great Lakes. Marquette, Mich., has picked up 16.3” of snow since Wednesday, which brings its monthly total to 39.3”—that’s 22” above normal.

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THUNDERY RAINS AHEAD

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WHY COLD AIR IS SO DRY

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November 24, 2005

Coldest Thanksgiving since 1945—but big warm-up ahead

Winds gusted to 43 m.p.h. Thursday amid frigid January level temperatures averaging more than 20 degrees below normal. By nightfall, windchills in the area had hovered near 0° for 15 consecutive hours—and were expected to continue in that range all night. Though Thursday’s mildest temperature of 41° occurred at midnight, readings had plunged to the teens by daybreak, making it the coldest Thanksgiving daytime temperature here since the upper teens recorded in 1945. Wind gusts hit 61 m.p.h. at Chicago’s shoreline at the Harrison-Dever Crib.
Blizzard conditions Thursday led to the closure of the Mackinac Bridge for a time in northern Lower Michigan. Travel over parts of the state’s Upper Peninsula was halted by whiteout conditions brought on by nearly 50 m.p.h. gusts. The 17.8” snow tallies at Rudyard and Kinross (southwest of Sault Ste. Marie) were records for the date, while 10-12” fell near Traverse City and 6” was down on Michigan’s western shoreline.

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STORMIER PATTERN AHEAD FOR CHICAGO

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WAS THE WINTER OF 1987-88 MILD?

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November 23, 2005

Jarring 20-degree downturn rides 40+ m.p.h. gusts

There hasn’t been a Thanksgiving this cold in Chicago since 1956. A potent early season arctic outbreak has arrived on powerful northwest winds—stacked vertically through the atmosphere and the underbelly of a 180 m.p.h. northwesterly jet stream roaring into the country from Canada.
Surface wind gusts in excess of 40 m.p.h. at times will slash daytime temperatures 20 degrees from yesterday’s levels in the mid 40s.
Afternoon thermometer readings are likely to linger in the upper teens or low 20s—but wind chills will hold to single digits and near or just below 0° at times.
The frigid air which grips Chicago Thursday had origins 1,200 miles to the north only 24 hours ago. Its descent into the United States crushes the record warmth recorded in the Plains Wednesday. Records included 69° at Rapid City, S.D. and Hastings, Neb.

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HEAVY SNOW ACROSS GREAT LAKES SNOWBELT

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THE WARM FALL OF 1968

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SNOW PHOTOS FROM NORTH CAROLINA - UPDATED!

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WGN-TV meteorologist Richard Koeneman sent these pictures of a "surprise" snow in North Carolina. An upper low lifted northeast right across western North Carolina, and the cold pool of air in the mountains was just chilly enough to turn the rain over to snow last night, with totals of up to 3 inches. These pictures were taken about 10 a.m. Tuesday, with a temperature of 29º. The snow started falling with a surface air temperature of 35º, so it stuck to everything.

After the snow/rain event ended, Richard sent us an updated snow total of of 4.2 inches and a total 1.54" of water-equivalent precipitation -- welcome moisture after the mini-drought of September and October in that area of North Carolina.

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Richard also sent us a picture of him with his fellow "doggie" meteorologists: Buddy (the big white one), Sadie (the little tiny one) and Maylee.

November 22, 2005

Thanksgiving may be among coldest in nearly 50 years

Plunging temperatures and powerful northwest winds promise Midwesterners a very cold Thanksgiving Thursday. Readings dive more than 20 degrees between Wednesday’s mild 40s once daybreak snows move on, and the frigid teens to mid 20s predicted Thursday. Gusts above 30 m.p.h. are to hold wind chills to single digits. Not since Thanksgiving 1956, when temperatures struggled to 25° and winds averaged 28 m.p.h. with 35 m.p.h. gusts has the holiday been any colder here.
More serious weather woes loom downwind of the Great Lakes for residents and travelers there. Lake-effect snow, a “no-show” in north-central Indiana and southwest Michigan Tuesday, is to make up for lost time beginning Wednesday night. Waves of snowfall over the coming two days could lead to 12”-plus accumulations at some locations. Blizzard conditions are predicted in Upper and northern Lower Michigan with powerful 50 m.p.h. gusts.

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FORECAST FOR DECEMBER'S FIRST WEEK

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BIGGEST NOVEMBER SNOWSTORM

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November 21, 2005

Fall 2005’s second snow to dust the area tonight

Lake snows whiten sections of northern Indiana’s snowbelt east of Porter County and north into western Lower Michigan Tuesday. Such snows fall with the greatest intensity when incoming winds have traveled farthest over open lake water. But Tuesday’s winds are to back from NNW to NW with time. This means the lake snows they support will move with time, limiting the period of most significant snowfall in any one area. This should prevent gargantuan totals. The hardest hit areas should see 3-5”—locally a bit more. These totals threaten hazardous travel conditions around the southeast end of Lake Michigan.
Much colder air hits late Wednesday night through Friday and lake snowfall in that outbreak could be more substantial, focused again on areas east of Chicago.
Incoming mild air sets up an area of overrunning light snow Tuesday night. This threatens to dust a broad swath of the Chicago area with a trace to as much as half an inch of snow.
-Tom Skilling

Temperature & Snowfall

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December’s Opening Week

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Thanksgiving Day Snow in Chicago

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November 20, 2005

After today, temperatures on downhill slide

A cold front will move through northeast Illinois this afternoon, setting the stage for a significant drop-off in temperatures for the rest of the work week. Temperatures for the Tuesday-Friday period will average about 10 degrees below normal with the coldest day Friday when readings will probably fail to warm out of the 20s.
Light snow or flurries will be in the forecast almost daily, and with winds mostly on a northwest trajectory, heavy lake-effect snows around the south end of Lake Michigan and Northwest Indiana may develop, especially Tuesday and Friday.
Holiday travel to the northeast may be problematic, as the persistent upper air pattern dominating the eastern Northern Hemisphere responsible for our wintry chill here will impact western Pennsylvania and New York with heavy snows.

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TRANSITION INTO WINTER

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WHY HURRICANES ARE NAMED

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November 19, 2005

Temperature Update

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Thanksgiving Day Snowfall

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Mobile Home Parks & Tornadoes

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November 18, 2005

City breaks out of the icebox after 52 subfreezing hours

Arctic air is on hiatus this weekend after producing subfreezing temperatures for 52 bone-chilling hours. Temperatures recover noticeably Saturday despite gusty winds. Area readings near or just above 50° appear a good bet and may reach the low/mid 50s in the warmest locations. That’s a surge of 22 degrees over Thursday’s frigid January-level 28° high.
By late Friday, the powerful cold air outbreak had slashed the month’s temperature ranking in Chicago 20 slots—from 12th to 32nd warmest of 135 Novembers on record. And, at least two strong new surges of arctic air next week (after Monday) threaten to further depress the ranking.
Readings first fell below 32° at 7 a.m. Wednesday, then remained below freezing through 11:30 a.m. Friday. Winds gusted above 30 m.p.h. during at least half of that 52-hour stretch, producing a long string of single-digit wind chills. Only 21 other years since 1871 have hosted such cold weather so early in the season.

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TWO CHANCES FOR SNOW THANKSGIVING WEEK

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RAPID TEMPERATURE INCREASES

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Central Illinois storm clouds Tuesday, Nov. 15

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Chicago Tribune photographer Joh Smierciak, on assignment southwest of Peoria on Rt. 136 near Havana, Ill., captured cold frontal storm clouds as dozens of twisters raked sections of 6 states, including downstate Illinois and Indiana. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center tallied 37 reports of twisters in that day's severe weather outbreak. November ranks deadliest of all months this year in terms of tornado fatalities.
–Tom Skilling

November 17, 2005

Biggest snows of Fall 2005 hit Great Lakes snow belt

Frigid arctic air and abnormally warm Great Lakes water temperatures proved an explosive combination Thursday, setting the stage for this autumn’s heaviest lake snows. Areas of Michigan opposite Chicago were buried. Grand Rapids was hit by 8.4" while 7" fell at Sparta and 7.5" accumulated late Thursday at Scottville in southwest and west central Michigan. Farther north, snow totals were even more impressive. Traverse City sat beneath 11" by nightfall while nearby Interlochen reported 13"—and snow was still falling.
But, it was Michigan’s Upper Peninsula which boasted the heaviest totals of all. Marquette’s 17" paled in comparison to the 27" full workweek tally at Ironwood since Monday night.
Thursday’s 28° high in Chicago was the coldest here since March 2 (27°). That level of chill didn’t occur a year ago for another month.

Winter 2005 Outlook

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Arctic Blasts For Chicago Over the Next Two Weeks

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Chicago’s -80° Wind Chill

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November 16, 2005

Shift to wintry chill; coldest Nov. 17 in 46 years!

Bitterly cold air, trapped for three weeks over Alaska and the Yukon, cut loose and roared south all the way to the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday.
The teens which greet area residents Thursday morning occur this early in fall on average only once every 17 years.
Chicago temperatures plummeted Tuesday night and Wednesday 33° in just 24 hours —from 55° to 22°—a drop equivalent to the change in normal daytime highs from late October to January. The plunge was accompanied by 24 consecutive hours of 30+ m.p.h. wind gusts which generated single digit wind chills. Coming as it did after one of the mildest November opens on the books (12th warmest of the past 135), the change was a brutal one. And the early season chill continues Thursday. A predicted high of 30° is to make November 17 the fifth coldest ever and the coldest for the date since the 14° high 46 years ago in 1959.

Temperature and Wind Update

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Suddenly Winter Weather

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2005 Season’s First Snow

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November 15, 2005

Dozens of twisters scour 5 central states

Dozens of twisters hopscotched across at least five states Tuesday in the third major severe weather outbreak of the past two weeks. It was the single biggest tornado count since Hurricane Rita’s remnants roared ashore on September 25, producing 47 twisters. The number of tornadoes Tuesday had reached 35 by late evening. And forecasters feared an active 1,600 mile long squall line, extending from the south Texas Gulf Coast north to the Detroit area, would produce more. November, 2005 now ranks as the the deadliest month of 2005 for tornadoes, having produced 22 fatalities. Flooding 5-10” rains were reported in southern Illinois--including 4.51” at Carbondale.
To Chicago’s north and west, wind-driven snow fell amid plummeting temperatures. Snowfall reached 6.2” at Elcho, 4.5” at LaCrosse and 4” at Wisconsin Dells—all in the Badger State—and was still accumulating beyond sunset.

Colder Pattern Likely to Dominate Rest of November

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Wednesday’s Winds & Temperatures

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Classifying Lighting Bolts

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Severe Weather Update

Threat of severe storms ends here, but major severe outbreak underway to Chicago's east; more than two dozen twisters already reported

The threat of severe thunderstorms is over in the Chicago area. Strong winds, falling temperatures and 3-6 hours of dry weather are immediately ahead--then snow showers arrive in Wednesday's pre-dawn hours. The precipitation-free weather soon to take hold and last half the night, is the result of the larger storm system's "dry slot", as mentioned in the previous update. This is a very windy but dry region of any largescale storm. But the feature migrates and snow showers are likely here as it exits the area before daybreak Wednesday.

While the severe weather threat has ended here, a major severe weather outbreak is underway across a good part of the nation's mid-section to the city's south and east. More than two dozen reports of twisters have already been tallied by NOAA's Storm Prediction Center this afternoon--and more are likely as we head through the evening and the night. Southern Indiana, extreme southern Illinois, western Kentucky and western Tennessee have been hardest hit through 5:30 pm. Now the focus is on a powerful squall line with cloud tops from 37,000 ft to 52,000 feet is sweeping northeastward through Indiana and southeast Michigan--and is headed for Ohio. It is part of a long line of powerful and severe thunderstorms which extend south to the Gulf Coast, where storms are crossing the Texas coastline into the Gulf of Mexico. We expect a number of additional tornadoes is likely to be reported from these areas. There are four active tornado watches in effect from Lousiana north to Detroit and a series of severe thunderstorm and tornado warnings are in effect as this update is filed.

Snow is sweeping across Iowa on winds which, in the western half of the state, are gusting 40+ mph. Temperatures have plunged into the low and mid 30s across all of Iowa. It's this chilly air which is to take up residence in the days ahead--part of a radically different pattern which may feature regular outbreaks of chilly air the remainder of November---a month which until now has been so mild it ranks 12th warmest of all November 1-15 periods on record here since 1871.

--Tom Skilling

From 70s to sticking snow in Omaha, NE

The temperature plunge headed for the Chicago area is evident in these snowy shots from meteorologist Dean Wysocki of Omaha shot today (Tuesday, November 15).--Tom Skilling
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Intensifying storm marks descent into colder pattern

4 P.M. TUESDAY
A period of strong thunderstorms or downpours--perhaps even a spell of
severe weather---threatens parts of the Chicago metro area early this
evening just ahead of this autumn's latest powerful storm's "dry
slot"--the narrow notch of dry air evident in the comma shaped cloud
mass visible on satellite imagery with storm's like today's--shifts
into region. If a weather watch is to be issued for any part of our
this area, it is likely to happen before 6 or 7pm--or not at all.
The latest computer model depictions of the intensifying storm
confirm a 60 mph band of southerly winds just 1,600 ft. above the
surface and advancing on the area from central and southern Illinois
and expected to converge with the 10-20 mph ESE winds currently in
place here between that time. Known as "speed and directional
convergence", the pile-up of air which results from this type of
situation, leads to vigorous upward motion through the atmosphere--in
today's case, into a 155 mph southwesterly jet stream. Thunderstorms
able to form in this type of situation are prolific rain producers,
capable of downpours and hailstones. But they move quickly in the fast
steering wind regime in place aloft. Any gusts they produce
effectively incorporate the storm's rapid forward movement with the
storm's outflowing winds which makes these gusts potentially extreme
and damaging. It should be noted, these gusts are best able to make it
to the ground when a cooler air isn't in place in the lower
atmosphere--as is the case at the moment as this update is filed at
mid-afternoon. So one key to the potential to high wind production
here will be whether a warm front can briefly pass, placing
Chicago--even if briefly--in the intensifying storm's "warm
sector"--which isn't likely to be very warm here at all, and certainly
not for very long since cold air is waiting in the wings
. 70-degree temperatures and mid 60-degree dewpoints (indicative of
humid air) are in place downstate and are helping fuel t-storm
development there. A major severe weather outbreak threatens a broad
area, especially to Chicago's south. The Storm Prediction Center has
an 8 state area designated as a "high" risk region---not an everyday
occurrenc---and a testament to the current storm's strength.
Meantime, snow and wind on the storm's backside sweeps into Chicago
after a 3-6 hour precip-free period in this storm's dry slot tonight.
Snow showers and flurries appear likely to sweep into Chicago in a
sharply colder and very windy weather regime by daybreak Wednesday and
through a good part of the day. Snow accumulations over sections of
northern Wisconsin and Upper Michigan threaten to exceed 6-8" and the
snow, though falling on warm ground and pavement, the speed at which
snow falls there should be impressive. Snowfall rates here and
temperatures just above freezing in Chicago shouldn't allow
significant accumulation.
Powerful winds and wind chills in the 20s are predicted
Wednesday---a day likely to be the first this autumn in which
temperatures aren't able to reach, let alone exceed 40-degrees. This
should be the coldest day in the nearly 8 months March 21.
Interestingly, the average first date of sub-40-degree occurrence each
fall is on November 9--putting tomorrow within a week of that time.
We'll have much more on this and what looks like a colder overall
pattern likely to last awhile tonight on the WGN 9 O'Clock News. All
the best!
---Tom Skilling

The Intensifying Storm

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Weather Outlook

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November 14, 2005

Taurid Meteor Shower

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November 13, 2005

Another storm takes aim at the Midwest

With the city still reeling from Sunday’s 50 m.p.h.-plus wind gusts that brought a rash of power outages and tree damage, and central Iowa sorting through tornado damage, another potentially blockbuster November storm is gathering forces in the southern Plains. In Chicago, the storm’s impact should begin late tonight as rain and thunderstorms move in, accompanied by strong, gusty southeast winds. This storm poses another severe weather threat to the lower Mississippi Valley and the southern Midwest, and it will be followed by another round of high winds on its cold backside Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Temperatures here should plunge Tuesday night, allowing the rain to become mixed with wet snow. Wednesday should be downright wintry with snow showers, strong northwest winds and temperatures holding in the 30s—a far cry from our recent balmy days in the 60s.

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CHICAGO’S DROUGHT HISTORY

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NEXT HALLOWEEN FULL MOON

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