WGN Weather Center Blog

February’s no laggard when it comes to winter weather. While days lengthen, normal daytime highs rise from 31° to 39° and sunlight is 46% stronger this month than in December, a 10”+ snowstorm hits in February once every 19 years and an average of 12 days record a 1”+ snow cover.
Snowfall in Februarys since 1928 which have followed the 20 mildest Januarys has varied widely. But, an analysis offers evidence that mild Januarys offer no guarantee the month which follows will lack snow. It’s true measurable snows have occurred less frequently in such months and snowfall in 60% of those 20 Februarys has fallen shy of the historic average. But, the remaining 40% have included three of the city’s nine snowiest Februarys on record here—among them 22.5” in February 1967, 19.9” in February, 1989 and 16.6” in February 1950. The snowfall in those 20 Februarys averaged 39% heavier than the 8.3” historic average since 1928.

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Mild weather’s had an amazing run over the past five weeks. It’s produced a January of near record warmth across the area and slashed home heating an estimated 28% over the same period a year ago. January’s average temperature of 36.6° at the city’s Midway Airport site ranks as the warmest there since weather observations first began 78-years ago and 1.4° above the previous warmest reading for the month: (35.2°) set in 1933. That reading places January, 2006 over 13° above the normal 23.5° reading and nearly 11° higher than a year ago. At O’Hare on the northwest side, Chicago’s official observation site, the past month has averaged 35.8°, enough to make it the third mildest January in 135 years of records.
January 2006 has left its mark in the precipitation arena as well. It’s 2.78” total is 59% above normal (1.75”) and enough to rank as the Chicago’s 29th wettest January on the books.

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Badly needed soaking rains brought official Chicago January precipitation totals to just over an inch above normal, marking it the first month since last February with above-normal precipitation.
According to veteran weather observer Frank Wachowski, this could also go down as the warmest January at Midway Airport since records began in 1928. So what may loom just five days in the future could bring Chicagoans back to reality. A midweek warm-up back into the 40s is anticipated, but indications are that a significant change in the upper air pattern is developing which could jar the west-east jet stream flow off a track it has held for over 40 days into a wintry north-south orientation by week’s end. As this upper air transition comes about, a low pressure could be born in the lower Mississippi Valley. Moving north and east, the intensifying low would draw on cold arctic air and warm, moist Gulf of Mexico air to generate a winter storm over the Great Lakes.

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The mean position of a wavy west-east flowing jet stream pattern will be over Chicago most of the week ahead, holding arctic and northern Canadian air masses north of the U.S.-Canada border. Chicago temperatures during this period are forecast to average 11° above normal, and by the end of the week, the string of consecutive days with above normal temperatures should reach 44°.
Rainfall Saturday afternoon was generally less than a quarter inch, but with rain continuing overnight and this morning, storm total rainfall could easily exceed an inch over much of the metro area. January’s total will probably be well over an inch above normal, marking the first month with above normal precipitation in Chicago since last February.
The extreme winter chill over Alaska is slowly expanding over northern Canada. The southern edge of this chill may invade NE Illinois next weekend.

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January 2006—the first of the past 11 months to run a precipitation surplus—is about to get a good deal wetter. The timing (during this weekend) may not please all area residents, but it can’t be argued that the area, plagued by long-term drought and a 13” moisture shortfall since last March, doesn’t need the rain.
The wet storm sweeping toward the Chicago area is only the latest twist in a month of most unusual weather. At a time of year more suited to snow, heavy rainfall arrives Saturday night and could exceed 1.25” by the time precipitation tapers to sprinkles and ends Sunday afternoon. That’s the equivalent of 72 percent of a full January’s worth of precipitation and may well be the heaviest rain event here in 5 months—since 1.35” fell on Aug. 20.
Readings surge to 50° for a fourth time this month Saturday. Chicago’s 35.3° average temperature since the beginning of the month ranks third warmest of the 135 Januarys on record here.

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January, 2006 has been brutally cold across a large section of Russia and eastern Europe. Scores have perished in the bitter chill, described as the worst in a quarter century or more at some locations.

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Temperatures soared past 60° across Iowa and Missouri less than 340 miles west of Chicago Thursday. And 60s dominated Kansas, Nebraska and South Dakota—readings more than 30° above normal at some locations there. It’s the latest surge of mild air to render historic averages all but obsolete in January 2006. Powerful 30+ m.p.h. gusts within the same air mass bring Chicago its third day of 50s this month.
Only 31 of the 135 Januarys on record here—fewer than 25%—have recorded three or more 50s. Interestingly, the January which produced the greatest number of 50s—13 of them—occurred 126 years ago in 1880.
The city’s unbroken string of daily temperature surpluses reaches 36 Friday. A modest downturn is projected next week though more substantial cooling, including possible arctic air, is still indicated the following week.
-Tom Skilling

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With a surge in temperatures to push readings into the 40s Thursday and the 50s on Friday, January 2006, currently running a 13° temperature surplus, appears headed for still another mid-winter temperature benchmark. The month, which ends midnight Tuesday, is on track to join only two other Januarys since 1871 in which each day has been above normal. Only January 1880 and 1990 share that distinction.
Record warmth in Montana and the Plains Wednesday is eastbound. Highs of 62° at Cut Bank and Great Falls, along with the 59° peak reading at Billings—all in Montana—are now on the books as Jan. 25th’s warmest. Rapid City, S.D. was even warmer at 66°—also a record.
By contrast, Alaska is in a deep freeze. Chandalar Lake and Fort Yukon bottomed out at -53° Wednesday while residents of Fairbanks, where a -35° high was logged Wednesday, haven’t reached 0° since Jan. 12.

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The last time as many days of above normal temperatures occurred consecutively—the winter of 1997-98—a strong El Nino was influencing the world’s weather. A string of 49 daily temperature surpluses was logged.
This winter’s record, while not quite as dramatic, is still impressive. Tuesday’s 40° high marked the 33rd straight day with a daily temperature surplus. The longest string of above normal days ever to occur here ran from June 7 through July 30, 1921—a string of 54 days!
Tuesday’s 40° also marked the 14th time this month readings have reached or exceeded 40°. Only three other Januarys have produced more 40s by this date—the last occurring 73 years ago in 1933.
Gusts hit 43 m.p.h. Tuesday in west suburban Aurora and at Valparaiso, Ind. Lightning accompanied snow in LaPorte, Indiana late Tuesday evening.

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A deadly cold wave, described as the worst since the Winter of 1978-79, spread from Russia into Europe Monday. Eastern and central Europe were especially hard hit. Morning temperatures dropped under -20° in Poland and sub-zero in Germany and Austria—levels 15 to 30° below normal. Winds as high as 60 m.p.h. blew snow through the air in sections of Greece, the Balkans, Turkey and even portions of Italy. The barometric pressure at the core of the brutal arctic air soared to 31.06” (1052 mb) over central Poland—indicative of an intensely cold air mass similar to those found in winter over Siberia, the Yukon of interior Alaska. Russian electrical utilities restricted industrial electricity use Monday. Readings inched above 0° in Moscow but are predicted to drop late week.
By contrast, January in Chicago is now ranks the 4th mildest on record and 12° above normal.

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Even mild winter months like this one can lambaste the area with snow.
As much as a foot of snow buried the hardest hit north and western
suburbs last week on Friday (January 20) converting the evening rush
hour into a nightmare with excruciatingly lengthy travel times over the
north and western suburbs. Anson Mount of Algonquin, a pilot and a
regular contributor to our weather blog, offers this image of the
impressive snow which fell Friday night.

Tom Skilling

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If Chicago’s official temperatures average nearly 12 degrees above normal the remainder of the month as forecast, January 2006 could well average over 35°—some 10 degrees above normal—ranking it as the third warmest in weather records dating back to 1871, according to Chicago weather historian Frank Wachowski. The prevailing upper-level steering jet stream currents persist in a southwest-to-northeast orientation over the United States, trapping cold Canadian air far to the north, allowing only brief incursions of winter-like temperatures out of Canada to reach as far south as northern Illinois.
A low pressure system is expected to intensify as it moves east through Lake Superior Tuesday, bringing very strong gale-force winds over the area. Later in the week, rains preceding and accompanying slow-moving low pressure out of the central Plains will probably add to the monthly precipitation total, which is already 0.26 inches above normal.

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As the Chicagoland region bounces back from Friday night’s snowstorm, the outlook for the next 5 days looks to be dry. While this weekend’s rainfall and heavy snow ensured that Chicago’s precipitation for the month of January would be above normal for the first time since last February, the string of days with above-normal temperatures since Dec. 22 marches on. Forecasts for daily readings through next Saturday average some 13° above normal, and the total consecutive number of days above-normal now projects to reach 37.
Low temperatures in the teens Saturday morning snapped an unusual record set this month—never before since records began in 1871 has January failed to produce a single sub-20° temperature before Jan. 22.
The seasonably mild period may be coming to an end as computer models are showing increasingly strong indications that a much colder upper air pattern may evolve after next weekend.

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The season’s biggest snowstorm walloped Chicago’s north and west suburbs late Friday, slashing visibilities to under a quarter mile and bringing traffic to a near standstill at times. Numerous cars were reported in ditches along Interstate 90 from Rockford to Elgin. One motorist, traveling from Waukegan to Algonquin, reported near whiteout conditions Friday evening while another spent three hours traveling from Rockford to the Fox Valley area.
By 10 p.m., snow accumulations had reached 10” at Lake Zurich, 9” at Cary in McHenry County and 8” in DeKalb—and the snow was still falling. Meanwhile, rain continued to fall late Friday evening at south suburban locations—a region expected to escape much of the storm’s ice and snow.
Though Friday’s temperatures retreated from Thursday’s 50s, readings were warm enough to produce a 29th straight above-normal day.

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Chicago’s remarkable run of mild weather eradicated the area’s snowpack nearly a month ago. There’s not been an inch of snow on the ground since Christmas Eve (Dec. 24). It’s little wonder why.
Friday marks the 29th straight day of above normal temperatures and January 2006’s warmth, buoyed by Thursday’s near record 55° high, a reading 26° above normal, is now Chicago’s 2nd warmest since 1871.
It’s rare for there to be a complete lack of snow on the ground this time of year. In only 34 years since 1885 has Jan. 20 boasted bare ground here—that’s just 28% of the time. Even rarer are Januarys which have reached the third week without a single day of 1” or more of snow on the ground. This January is one of only 7 in the past 70 years to achieve that meteorological benchmark. Friday night’s storm could change this. But daytime highs this weekend should produce melting in short order.

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The sun sets across the Chicago metro area Thursday evening 28 minutes later than just a month ago—at 4:50 p.m. versus 4:23 p.m. back on Dec. 21. The hours of sunlight are on the rise, albeit slowly across much of the northern hemisphere. In the next 4 days, the sun returns for 77 minutes in Barrow, Alaska for the first time in that arctic coastal location since the long winter sunset on Nov. 18. The trend toward longer days is important because it will eventually have a major impact on temperatures. An early impact of the increased sun, though small, occurs this weekend as Chicago’s normal high rises from 29 to 30°.
Mild temperatures resurge Thursday on gusty SSW winds. The mercury passes 40° Thursday afternoon for the 12th time this month, well above the 7 days of such “warmth” which have occurred on average over the entire month of January here since 1871.

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Long term weather records reveal that, on average, as many days of sub-32° and sub-zero cold are on the books by Jan. 18 as are likely to occur from this date forward in what remains of the cold season. The same is true of snowy days. Historically, roughly as many days of measurable snow remain as have already occurred by this date. Thus, from the standpoint of these meteorological benchmarks, we’ve reached the approximate mid-point in Chicago’s winter season.
Chicago’s coldest daytime temperatures in 11 days are predicted Wednesday, though the chilly air’s stay is to be a short one. The brief cold punch is unlikely to derail the remarkable streak of above normal temperatures which has dominated the past 26 days.
Snow, in such short supply here, fell with gusto in parts of Michigan’s Upper Peninsula Tuesday. Chippewa County was buried by 16” of snow.

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The Augustine Volcano 180 miles southwest of Anchorage, Alaska reawakened at 10:58 A.M. CST Tuesday morning after several comparatively quiet days

Picture Date: January 16, 2006 14:30:0

Image courtesy of the Alaska Volcano Observatory/U.S. Geological Survey (AVO/USGS).
Image Creator: McGimsey, Game

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This spectacular view of Mt. Foraker, situated adjacent to Mount McKinley (Denali) in the Alaska Range, was captured by Tom MacPhail, whose photos we've featured before on our blog. The photo was taken this past weekend. Tom reports temperatures dipped as low as -16° there, a location several hours north of Anchorage. The frigid air's return represents quite a change from the abnormally mild air which has dominated recent weeks across our 49th state. Tom is an aviation forecaster at the National Weather Service Forecast Office in Anchorage and is part of a team of meteorologists and other scientists there and at the USGS Alaska Volcano Observatory carefully monitoring the Augustine volcano in Cook Inlet which erupted again for the first time in days this (Tuesday) morning at 10:58 am Chicago time for four minutes. Eight explosions occurred over several days late last week into the weekend, leading to some flight cancellations in the area. Ash advisories were posted for the southern Kenai Peninsula located south of Anchorage. Augustine's status has been upgraded to Code Red, signaling additional eruptions may well be imminent.

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It’s been almost a month since December’s bitter chill relinquished its grip on the Chicago area. And what a turnaround it’s been! Tuesday marks the 26th consecutive day of above normal temperatures. January’s 36.9° average is 12.6° above the long-term average (24.3°), the mildest such period in 67 years since 1939—and 32° warmer than barbarically cold Jan. 1-16, 1979.
Once ranked the 4th coldest on record, Meteorological Winter, 2006 has slipped 70 slots to rank as the 74th coldest of the 135 such periods on file here.
January’s first 16 days haven’t produced a single temperature below 20°—unusual at a time of the year when sub-zero readings are common. It’s something which has happened in only five times since 1871. Eight sub-20° lows are typical by this date.
Chicago isn’t alone with its unusual January “warmth”. Madison and Milwaukee, Wisconsin have hosted their warmest Januarys since 1942.
-Tom Skilling

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A mild January will continue unabated this week as Chicago’s string of above-normal days continues to mount. Today’s high of 45º was already the ninth day this month that the city’s temperatures have topped the 40º mark at a time of year when readings should only reach the upper 20s. However, Chicago’s highs were chilly when compared to the unseasonable warmth registered just to our west. High temperature records toppled Sunday across portions of six states from Texas to Nebraska and Iowa as readings surged to 70º as far north as Norfolk and Grand Island, both in Nebraska, while Des Moines topped out at a record-breaking 58º.
Despite a lack of cold weather, there is a glint of hope for winter enthusiasts in the latest computer forecasts. A storm system developing in the southern Plains may have just enough cold air to produce a significant snowfall for the Chicago area or areas just to the north by next Saturday.

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Chicago’s temperatures have registered above normal every day since Dec. 23, and this string is expected to continue through the upcoming week, during a period that historically brings the city some of its coldest weather. The third week of January is notoriously cold in Chicago, a time were double-digit subzero cold is common. However, that will not be the case this January, as high temperatures are expected to top freezing every day and overnight lows should remain above 20º.
Though the region remains locked in drought, Friday’s substantial rain/snow event brought some of the heaviest precipitation totals in many months. With the latest computer forecasts hinting at more generous and frequent precipitation totals in the next few weeks, there may be some hope for easing drought conditions. After December brought a record-tying 10th consecutive month of below normal precipitation, the city needs only 0.57” to push January levels above normal.

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The heavens opened Friday, producing one of the city’s heaviest single-day precipitation tallies in a year—welcome news in a region racked by drought.
Midway Airport’s 0.91” was the greatest total at the site since 0.96” fell exactly one year ago on the same date. January’s normally cold environment restricts the amount of moisture available to many precipitation-producing systems, and often limits rain and snow totals. Mega-storms like the blizzards of 1967, 1979 and 1999 are rarities. Of the 2,387 January precipitation events observed at Midway since 1929, only 26 have produced 0.90” or more. That’s just 1 percent of the month’s rain or snow-bearing systems.
O’Hare’s 0.67” Friday wasn’t as dramatic as the Midway tally. Still, it was the greatest precipitation at O’Hare since 0.94” fell Oct. 2.
Preliminary reports indicate the area’s heaviest reported precipitation total occurred in Kankakee County’s Bonfield, where 1.10” was observed.

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