Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Check out the 2001 Blue Jays. They were a mediocre team weighed down by large investments in players like Carlos Delgado and Raul Mondesi and, to a lesser degree, Paul Quantrill. Toronto ownership fired longtime GM Gord Ash after that season, replacing him with J.P. Ricciardi, with the idea that Ricciardi would tear down that roster and build it back up.

Ricciardi did just that, but during the 2005-06 offseason, he jumped back into the deep end of the pool, committing huge dollars to A.J. Burnett (five years, $55 million) and B.J. Ryan (five years, $47 million). I remember that Burnett attended a news conference at the winter meetings in Dallas to herald his joining the Jays.

At the news conference, I asked Ricciardi why, after working so hard to create payroll flexibility, he tied up huge dollars once more.

He said something to the effect of, "These are my guys this time," as opposed to him inheriting Ash's guys.

That made some sense, but as it turned out, Ricciardi's guys didn't quite get it done. Burnett put together two injury-plagued seasons and one good one before bolting for the Yankees and, due to bad luck - the Yankees signed two higher-ranked free agents than Burnett, Mark Teixeira and CC Sabathia - getting the Blue Jays a modest third-round pick and sandwich pick in the '09 draft.

And the Blue Jays released Ryan yesterday, with nearly a year and a half left on the deal and $14 million owed him. Ryan delivered a terrific 2006 before undergoing Tommy John surgery in '07, and after pitching pretty well last year, he lost the closer's job this season.

If you want to say, "That reflects poorly on Ricciardi," rather than on the general dangers of long-term deals, OK. At the time, certainly, industry people questioned to the wisdom of giving so much money to Ryan, who had been a closer for just one year.

But I'm not sure there's a GM out there who has a really strong record when it comes to long-term investments. Particularly when we're talking about signing antother team's player in the free-agent market, as opposed to re-upping your own guys - as Ricciardi did, quite successfullly, with Roy Halladay.

It's something to keep in mind as we watch these Halladay trade discussions through the month. Ricciardi wants a huge package in return, and if a team is to give up that big a pakage, it will want to at least seriously consider retaining Halladay beyond his current deal, which runs through next year. But will Halladay's next contract be a wise one? Will he defy the current conventional wisdom and continue to be great into his late 30s?

For my Midweek Insider, I spoke with Gary Sheffield about the power he has wielded in choosing his workplaces - even when he lacked the upper hand from a traditional, legal standpoint - and that he intends to continue to wield.

On July 4, 2007, the Yankees lost to Johan Santana and the Twins, and their record dropped to 40-42. Just one game better, in other words, than these Mets.

Yet you could look at those underachieving Yankees and envision them making a charge for the playoffs:

J.P. Ricciardi nearly broke the Internet today when he told Ken Rosenthal that he was more open to trading Roy Halladay.

I spoke with Ricciardi a few hours ago, and here's his take: Halladay is signed through next year, and there's very little chance that he'll stick with the Jays after that. Toronto is not going to make the playoffs this year. So he'll listen to offers _ while not, he insisted, being proactive.

Of course, when you're shopping arguably the best pitcher in baseball, you don't need to be very proactive. Ricciardi did all of the media interviews today, thereby getting the word out.

Expect the Yankees and Mets to engage Ricciardi on Halladay; it would be irresponsible of them not to do so. Realistically, however, on a scale of 1 to 10 - with 1 being highly unlikey and 10 representing metaphysical certitude - I'd say the Mets are a 1 to acquire Halladay, and the Yankees are a 4.

Other teams likely in the mix: The Phillies, Red Sox, both Los Angeles clubs and Texas.

In order to get to Halladay to waive his full no-trade clause, most team officials expect, you're going to have to give a contract extension in the neighborhood of Johan Santana and CC Sabathia. And even if you ripped up the $15.75 million Halladay is owed next year, you'd be starting a ginormous deal with him turning 33 next May.

And to get to that point, of course, you'd have to give up a boatload of prospects. A better package, Ricciardi contended, than what Atlanta gave to Texas for Mark Texieira two years ago.

That's why the team officials I polled today - from three different clubs - were skeptical that Halladay would actually be traded anywhere. But it's a fascinating subject, so I'll be writing more about this for my column tomorrow. Please don't tell the competing media outlets.

During my weekend jaunt to Cape Cod, I had lunch here with my family and a college buddy and his family. As we departed the premises, the hostess smiled and made some small talk.*

"So are you guys from New York?" she asked.

"How did you know?" my buddy asked, smiling. "Is it our accents? Our attitudes?"

"No," the woman said, and pointed to my son. "He's wearing a Yankees cap."**

The moral of the story: Sometimes we choose to ignore what's right in front of us and choose alternate, more elaborate stories to match our own perceptions.

*Posnanski-ism I: Whenever I hear the term "small talk," I think of Larry Burns urging his father to "make with the yakkety-yak-yak" in this episode of "The Simpsons."

**Posnanski-ism II: My son also owns caps bearing the logos of the Mets, Red Sox, Tigers and Connecticut Defenders. I have recused myself from his rooting interests.

I went on WNYU last night and took issue with the host referring to Jose Reyes as "injury-prone." I would let it go, if only I hadn't heard this notion before in the yakosphere (credit for this term, as always, goes to Neil Best).

This isn't even a "look beneath the surface statistics" issue. This is an urge to look at the most surface of statistics: Games played!

2005: 161
2006: 153
2007: 160
2008: 159

That people choose to ignore that mountain of evidence and think back to Reyes' 2004 doesn't speak very well of our species.

Other misperceptions that drive me batty include:

While monitoring the Mets game from Yankee Stadium, I thought to myself, "Self, it's one thing to place unrealistic expectations on David Wright. But he is playing just horribly when the Mets need him the most."

David Lennon, on site in Philadelphia, agreed.

For those of you clamoring for Omar Minaya to do something to upgrade this terrible Mets roster, I believe you are missing the point. If you really want to whip yourself into a frenzy, you should crush the Mets for not doing more last winter, as JE said at the time, to stock roster depth. Right now, the trade options are pricey and largely unappealing. The Mets' best chance for a resurgence will come from within, starting with Oliver Perez, of all people, on Wednesday.

The All-Star rosters are up. No obvious shockers or snubs to me, although let's open up the complaint box. Any thoughts, positive or negative?

You might recall that Franklin Gutierrez, who made this great play yesterday for the Mariners at Fenway Park, was technically Mets property for a moment this winter. The Mets acquired him from Cleveland in order to flip him to Seattle for J.J. Putz.

The Mets sure could use defense like that, couldn't they? David Lennon thinks so.

Anyway, I mention the Mariners because my Sunday Insider features their surprisingly good showing so far, and how that will impact their July plans.

1. The resilient Mets, still very much in the playoff hunt, will manage to win one of three against the wobbly Phillies _ a moral victory of sorts, given how awful the Mets' roster is right now.

Of course, the weekend will not be empty of low points, none more so than on Saturday morning. When Jerry Manuel orders the entire team to visit the Philadelphia Museum of Art together, Fernando Martinez will trip while walking up the famous steps and execute another face plant. Johan Santana, meanwhile, will pick up a quarter that Alex Cora overthrew in the Museum Restaurant, but when Santana attempts to toss the quarter to David Wright, he'll put too much on it and hurl it all the way into the Delaware River.

John Franco will say, "Watching them almost every day, there's no leadership there. Nobody wants to step forward and be a leader. Something is missing and it's hard to put your finger on it. I mean, how could no one step up and say, 'Art is for dweebs, let's see the Liberty Bell'?"

2. The Yankees will continue to stomp through a soft spot in their schedule, taking three of four from the Blue Jays at the Stadium. Alex Rodriguez will continue his strong play, hitting two homers and driving in seven runs for the weekend while playing improved defense.

"The Philippon Rules make all the difference," A-Rod will say. "It's essential that we follow the Rules by the letter of the law. For instance, the Rules state that, after every game, Derek Jeter must make sure there's toothpaste ready to go on my toothbrush.

Mariano Rivera, meanwhile, will pick up two saves and three RBI for the weekend.

3. Manny Ramirez will return from his suspension tonight in San Diego and have a quiet weekend, going 2-for-11 with a double and one RBI as the Dodgers take two of three from the Padres.

Nevertheless, Manny will make his presence felt when he engages a swarm of bees in conversation, offers his reasoning for the suspension and, having won the bees' support, convinces them to leave the ballpark for the Zoo.

Billy Crystal, on site to support his pal Joe Torre, will crack, "Looks like another example of Manny Beeing Manny. Hey, have you heard the one about me being the Yankees' DH - Designated Hebrew? Wakka Wakka!

For my Midweek Insider, I offered a primer to this month's build-up to the July 31 deadline for non-waivers trades.

It seems that we condition ourselves sometimes to think that every July is drag-out, knock-down crazy, but that's not really the case. As a matter of fact, if you go over the past five years, you can track the "storylines" that emerged, if you will:

2008: Drag-out, knock-down crazy. CC Sabathia, Mark Teixeira, Manny Ramirez (and Jason Bay), Ivan Rodriguez, Ken Griffey, Jr., Rich Harden, Xavier Nady and Joe Blanton get traded.

2007: The Rangers rebuild, trading Teixeira, Eric Gagne and Kenny Lofton. Not much else of interest occurs.

2006: The Yankees wait out the Phillies until the acquisitions of Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle become purchases, rather than bona fide trades, while Duaner Sanchez's decision to go out to eat, rather than order room service, has long-reaching ramifications for the Mets. Not much else, though.

2005: Boooooring. When Kyle Farnsworth is the biggest name, it's a dud July.

2004: Drag-out, knock-down crazy. The four-way deal involving Nomar Garciaparra. The huge Marlins-Dodgers trade that came to define Paul DePodesta's time as Dodgers GM; notice that it worked out pretty well for the Dodgers. Steve Finley to the Dodgers. The Yankees traded Jose Contreras for Esteban Loaiza. The Mets, deluded into thinking they can make the playoffs, acquire Victor Zambrano (can't remember for whom) and Kris Benson.

Conclusion: There are a lot of trades during the years in which there are U.S. presidential elections.

Seriously...right now, it looks like it could be slow. The economy, it appears, will define this trade period.

There are only a handful of teams completely out of it, and the best, potentially available player from that group _ Jake Peavy _ is on the disabled list.

Teams that are still in the race, even marginally, are going to be reluctant to draw the white flag, you'd think, because, since fans have less disposable income, will they be more less likely to purchase tickets for a club out of the race? And on the flip side, how many teams will be willing to take on a lot of money? You saw how the Yankees wouldn't even take on the entire $800,000 that Eric Hinske is owed.

As I noted in my story, even this close to the deadline, you just can't anticipate what sort of developments will emerge. Like Manny's rebellion last year. Like Sanchez's taxi cab accident in '06. It's always a fun month for fans, no matter the results.

Such is the way of our world right now that, while covering the Yankees game last night, I learned of the Fernando Martinez play via Twitter. My fellow media types in Milwaukee, including Newsday teammate David Lennon, Tweeted as though they just saw space aliens land at Miller Park

When I finally saw the play at 2:28 this morning, thanks to the MLB Network, it was not a letdown. Oh my goodness gracious. The only other person I could think of who would fall quite like that was Herman Munster.

What a symbol: The Mets' young hope, the supposed jewel of their farm system, falling flat on his face. It doesn't mean that F-Mart is a flop; you might recall that Melky Cabrera once turned a fly ball into an inside-the-park home run at Fenway Park, back in 2005, and Cabrera delivered the Yankees' game-winning hit last night.

But it sure looks like Martinez, 20, isn't ready yet for prime time. It's an embarrassment, no doubt for Omar Minaya and his vice president of development Tony Bernazard.

Really, these last five games reflect very poorly on the Mets' front office. We all understand how crushing it is to lose Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes at the same time, but most of also were clamoring over the winter (I was admittedly late to this bandwagon, but hopped on just in time, like the protagaonists in "The Darjeeling Limited") for improved roster depth that never arrived.

Maybe Jerry Manuel's post-game meeting, and his insistence that the entire team take the bus together to the ballpark this morning, will deflate some of the pressure the club appears to be feeling. Or, maybe they just have no shot with the team they're throwing out there every day. If it gets much worse than last night, then Citi Field is going to be an ugly, ugly place for the rest of this season.

Good Lord. Have we ever had a baseball season like this? Rain, rain and more rain. The word here at Yankee Stadium is that the rain will stop at 6:45, although The Weather Channel thinks it will be closer to 8:00.

In baseball news, Joe Girardi and Brian Cashman discussed the Eric Hinske trade. As we discussed earlier, Hinske will be used in the four corner positions. The Pirates provided $400,000, roughly half of what Hinske is owed.

"We’ve spent a lot of money," Cashman said. "We’ve been out there. We’ve spent a lot of money."

Joel Sherman reported that the Yankees will send Ramiro Pena to Triple-A Scanton/Wilkes-Barres to make room for Hinske on the roster. That might not happen tonight, as Hinske's flight was delayed by bad weather in Pittsburgh. But whenever it happens, Joel reported, the Yankees want to try to develop Pena as an outfielder, to make him a "super sub."

I admittedly didn't see this trade coming, but Yankees fans should be pleased. Hinske is a perfect bench player for a contender. He's versatile, and at this point in his career, he's content with the complementary role. He can can give the corner infielders and outfielders a rest and, when he's not starting, he gives Joe Girardi a bona fide weapon off the bench.

It's also interesting that the Yankees received "cash considerations" from the Pirates, and gave up a couple of minor leaguers. They surely could have inherited the roughly $800,000 Hinske is owed and gave up less in talent, but they opted to go this route. This model of trade became en vogue last year when the Dodgers acquired both Casey Blake and Manny Ramirez and paid neither player's salary, instead giving up prospects.

Imagine that, the Pirates paying the salary of a Yankees player. That's a twist.

I've never gotten worked up over which players make the All-Star teams and which don't. I'm fine with the fans selecting the starting lineups, and the players picking most of the reserves, and the managers choosing the last few.

The whole "This time it counts" campaign, in which the winning league gets homefield advantage for the World Series? Works for me. No, the format will never be commended by Mensa, but it adds some buzz to the game.

Every team must have a representative? Sure, bring it on. We wouldn't want to offend Oakland mayor Ron Dellums, right?

Yes, when it comes to the All-Star Game, I'm easy to please. But (you knew there would be a but, didn't you?) Major League Baseball caught my eye last week when it released its weekly package of notes and tidbits to the media.

MLB detailed some close races for the fan vote, to start in the game, and I thought to myself, "Self, as someone who will be covering the All-Star Game, whom would you like to see win these close races? For 'show-business' reasons, if you will.s"

MLB included shortstop and outfield among the NL close races, but as you can see from yesterday's release, Hanley Ramirez has pulled away from Jimmy Rollins at shortstop, and Carlos Beltran from Alfonso Soriano for the third outfield spot (although Beltran, as we know, is unlikely to be healthy enough to play).

The AL update will be released today, and I'll post it when I can. But in a pre-emptive strike, let's look at the tight races, and I'll offer who should start, based on 2009 performance, and who would start, based on the more compelling (IMO, of course) storyline.

First base: Mark Teixeira (1,561,292 votes), Kevin Youkilis (1,525,660)

Who should start: Teixeira, by the slightest of margins. He has played in 10 more games than has Youkilis, and he therefore has tallied a higher count of Wins Above Replacment Player (3.3 to 3.1). If you say it should be Youkilis, I won't get into a fist fight with you.

Who would start: Teixeira. Just because of the attention Teixeira received over the winter for his free agency.

Second base: Ian Kinsler (1,791,177), Dustin Pedroia (1,732,787)

Who should start: Kinsler, clearly. Not even close.

Who would start: Pedroia. At the risk of Yankees-Red Sox overload, I think it would be cool to have a double-play combination of Pedroia and Derek Jeter. I also like the idea of both reigning MVPs, Pedroia and Albert Pujols, starting.

Outfield: Jason Bay is comfortably in first place, with 2,0777,504. Then come Ichiro Suzuki (1,455,266), Josh Hamilton (1,385,212), Torii Hunter (1,186,097) and Carl Crawford (1,172,241)

Who should start: Ichiro and Hunter. Hamilton has missed a good chunk of the year on the disabled list, while Crawford's numbers aren't quite as good as the other guys'.

Who would start: Ichiro and Hunter. While Hamilton was a great story last year at Yankee Stadium, Ichiro and Hunter have been around longer both possess that showman's electricity _ Ichiro with his speed, Hunter with his defense (yes, we know, not as good as he used to be, but still...)

Whom would you like to see in the starting lineup?

Ken Davidoff talks baseball and answers your questions today in a live chat at 11 a.m.