Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

There are few players I have enjoyed covering as much as Orlando Hernandez. On the mound, El Duque is a fearless artist. In the clubhouse, his moods can swing dramatically, from giddy to sour to distraught _ all of them equally compelling.

And if I were a baseball general manager, I would sign him only as a sixth starting pitcher. There's no way I would give him any greater responsibility.

The Mets placed Hernandez on the disabled list Monday, with what was described as bursitis in his right shoulder, and there was talk of El Duque missing only two starts. We'll see. Just look at Hernandez's record. The 162 1/3 innings he tallied last year marked his most since 2000, and he broke down on the eve of the playoffs.

Now the Mets' pitching depth gets tested,.John Maine and Oliver Perez climb a rung on the hierarchy, and Mike Pelfrey's turnaround becomes more important. Clearly, Chan Ho Park isn't the answer

Last year, the Mets thrived when Pedro Martinez went on the disabled list. With El Duque and Jose Valentin going on the DL yesterday, and Moises Alou dealing with potential problems, as well, the 2007 test now begins in earnest.

Between electronic and personal communication with Yankees fans, I appreciate there's a sizeable lobby with whom Joe Torre has used up all of his goodwill. That's your prerogative. The customer is always right.

But I'm curious: Do you in the anti-Torre crowd think now is the right time to ditch the manager? Can you project a tangible improvement upon the departure of Torre and the arrival of Don Mattingly, Joe Girardi, Larry Bowa or someone else in the manager's office?

It's not as though the players are clamoring for the manager to be gone; to the contrary, captain Derek Jeter spoke up passionately Sunday on Torre's behalf. And should Torre get canned, I don't see those players being scared straight into playing better. There is no evidence that the Yankees are not entering games prepared.

In-game management? Girardi and Bowa might be better tacticians; Mattingly is unproven. But the former pair come with their own baggage (Girardi's controlling nature, Bowa's tendency to clash with his players), and besides, I'm not sure how much strategy helps when your starting pitchers can't give you length or protect leads.

But perhaps many of you disagree. Let me know what you think.

1. After getting rained out tonight, the Yankees will beat the Red Sox Saturday and Sunday behind the pitching of Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang. Mariano Rivera will get his first save of the year on Saturday. Alex Rodriguez will hit his 15th homer on Sunday. Jason Giambi will not hit a double either day.

2. The Mets will win 2 of 3 in Washington, with Oliver Perez losing tonight and Tom Glavine (career victory 294) and John Maine picking up the next two. David Wright will not hit a home run.

3. Barry Bonds will hit career homer 742 Saturday at Chase Field. It will leave the ballpark and break a window at Bud Selig's vacation home in nearby Scottsdale.

4. Gil Meche, returning to Seattle after signing a five-year, $55-million deal with Kansas City, will beat the Mariners with a strong outing on Saturday. (Sorry, can't think of a joke here).

5. Late Sunday night, Carl Pavano _ having finished watching "Entourage" _ will pick up his Friday newspaper, read the latest chapter in the Curt Schilling bloody sock saga and say, to no one in particular, "The Red Sox won the 2004 World Series?!"

Phil Hughes was in the Yankees' clubhouse Wednesday, and Colter Bean was not. This reflected an intriguing roster move by the team, one that wound up being untested due to the rainout.

The Yankees wanted Hughes, their prized phenom, to spend Wednesday soaking in the big leagues _ hanging in the clubhouse prior to the game, speaking with the media, attending the pre-series scouting meetings, sitting in the dugout during the contest. In order for Hughes to do this, as per the letter of Major League Baseball's law, they had to put Hughes on their 25-man roster. And we know the Yankees would never skirt the rules.

To make room for Hughes, the Yankees optioned Bean to Triple-A Scranton. Because Hughes wouldn't have pitched Wednesday under any circumstances, the Yankees decided to risk going a pitcher short in their bullpen. Scott Proctor and Sean Henn were both coming off two days of rest, Joe Torre explained, and the Yankees were hopeful that their scheduled starter Andy Pettitte would give them some length.

But what would have happened, say, if Pettitte were hit by a Frank Thomas comebacker in the first inning and had to leave the game? Then the Yankees could've been exposed, with one less arm in the bullpen. Not that Bean is a future Hall of Famer or anything, his cult following notwithstanding, but still. There was a worst-case scenario.

So what do you think, Yankees fans? Was it worth taking the admittedly slim risk of dumping Bean in order to make Hughes more comfortable? Or, at 8-11, should the Yankees have been entirely focused on ending their five-game losing streak?

First on Omar Minaya's resume, undoubtedly, is how he took over the Mets in September 2004 and _ with the Wilpons' financial backing _ turned them from a laughingstock to a respected organization in just a year's time. But second has to be the general manager's ability to get the most out of his 25-man roster.

How about Tuesday night's 2-1, 12-inning victory over Colorado at Shea Stadium? It wouldn't have happend without the contributions of Damion Easley (game-tying homer in the 10th), Endy Chavez (game-winning bunt single in the 12th) and Joe Smith (winning pitcher). Combined, that trio makes less than $3 million.

This game typified Minaya's Mets. From Marlon Anderson and Chris Woodward in 2005, to Chavez and Guillermo Mota last year, the Mets general manager has repeatedly found values in baseball's bargain bin. Easley, who was down to the Mets' last strike in the 10th, is the latest hidden gem.

Among big-market general managers, you won't find one who better utilizes his player supply.

Let's toss aside our local teams for a day and take a tour through the rest of baseball:

Rough weekend for both the Yankees and the Mets and their fans. Combined, the two series felt like the start of a movie sequel when the nemesis reasserts himself.

Still, it is so early, but it's no stretch to say that neither the Red Sox, who swept the Yankees at Fenway Park, nor the Braves, who took two of three from the Mets at Shea Stadium, will be the pushovers they turned out to be last year. The Red Sox, having been shredded by the Yankees in last year's Boston Massacre II, rebuilt their team the old-fashioned way, and free agents Daisuke Matsuzaka and J.D. Drew have been big hits so far. I think the Sox will win the AL East, thanks to a deeper lineup and starting rotation and the crucial decision to shift Jonathan Papelbon back to closer.

I'm not as certain about the Braves' future, but their impressive start reminds us not to underestimate the braintrust of general manager John Schuerholz and manager Bobby Cox. Remember, starting in 2003, they weren't really the NL East favorites, but they still won three more division titles before last year's flameout. Schuerholz is a Hall of Fame executive whose good-trade-to-bad-trade ration is overwhelming. Cox, while a bit cranky if you ask him about certain subjects, establishes a culture of winning in the clubhouse. The two men have rebuilt the Braves' bullpen, which was so awful last year.

Now, as we move forward, let's please not obsess entirely over the divisional races. Always keep in mind the wild card, a perfectly acceptable way to get into October. I think the Yankees, whose starting rotation will improve considerably with the returns of Chien-Ming Wang and Mike Mussina and the likely (at this point) signing of Roger Clemens, will get the AL wild card. I think the NL will be so compressed that the Mets will be in the hunt for both the NL East and the extra spot, although I did pick them to finish out of the playoffs.

As a baseball writer, there's nothing else like covering a Yankees-Red Sox series. Media from both cities flood the zone with representatives, and the games invariably produce compelling drama. What was already an intense, historic rivalry jumped several notches when John Henry's group purchased the Red Sox, throwing enormous amounts of money and brainpower into the theretofore cursed franchise.

The Henry/Tom Werner/Larry Lucchino group took over in 2002, but that first season was somewhat of a practice run. Things changed when Lucchino referred to the Yankees as "the Evil Empire" in a December 2002 New York Times interview, after the Yankees beat out the Red Sox for Jose Contreras, and when Theo Epstein took over as Boston's general manager that same offseason.

There have been 76 regular-season meetings between the Yankees and Red Sox since 2003, with the Yankees owning a slim, 39-37 advantage. Throw in the two American League Championship Series, a 7-7 tie in games, and the Yankees' 46-44 edge speaks to just how close these two clubs have been.

But let's forget about the playoffs for now. Of those regular-season contests, here are my five most memorable:

5) Red Sox 8, Yankees 5, April 14, 2005 at Fenway Park. Gary Sheffield has an ugly confrontation with an overzealous fan in rightfield during an eighth-inning play, drawing a phalanx of team security to the area and inciting more debate about the player-fan dynamic.
4) Yankees 8, Red Sox 6, July 14, 2005 at Fenway Park. Remember Curt Schilling's short-lived tenure as the Red Sox's closer? This was his debut in that role. He entered the ninth inning with the game tied at 6-6, Red Sox Nation going ballistic, and immediately served up a double to Sheffield and a game-losing homer to his nemesis Alex Rodriguez.
3) Yankees 2, Red Sox 1, July 7, 2003 at Yankee Stadium. Boston starter Pedro Martinez hits the Yankees' first two batters of the game, Alfonso Soriano and Derek Jeter (although Soriano, fittingly, swung at the pitch that caused the injury) and sends them both out of the game for X-rays. With Robin Ventura at second base and Enrique Wilson at shortstop, the Yankees hang around thanks to Mike Mussina's brilliance and win it in the ninth when Todd Walker can't handle Curtis Pride's bases-loaded grounder. George Steinbrenner openly cries afterward, one of the first red flags about his health.
2) Red Sox 11, Yankees 10, July 24, 2004 at Yankee Stadium. What a day. Nearly called due to rain, the game featured a bench-clearing brawl between A-Rod and Jason Varitek (with Bronson Arroyo establishing his presence in The Rivalry by hitting A-Rod). The Yankees blew a six-run lead when Bill Mueller slammed a two-run, ninth-inning homer off Mariano Rivera.
1) Yankees 5, Red Sox 4, 13 innings, July 1, 2004 at Yankee Stadium. Jeter's famous diving catch into the stands. Brilliant defense from first-year third baseman A-Rod. A near confrontation between Pedro and Sheffield. And the winning rally, which featured two-out hits from the unlikely trio of Ruben Sierra, Miguel Cairo and John Flaherty.

Honorable mention, in chronological order:
Red Sox 5, Yankees 4, July 26, 2003 at Fenway Park. Armando Benitez proves he can't handle this pressure, giving up a game-winning hit to David Ortiz.
Yankees 8, Red Sox 4, August 31, 2003 at Fenway Park. Red Sox Nation's farewell to the "retiring" Roger Clemens (who still hasn't been back there, but just might show up this year. Home or away? Don't know yet).
Yankees 3, Red Sox 1, September 7, 2003 at Yankee Stadium. Having been outscored 20-3 in the first two games of the series, seeing their AL East lead drop to a game and a half, the Yankees are bailed out by David Wells, who had been clashing yet again with Joe Torre and Mel Stottlemyre.
Red Sox 9, Yankees 6, July 25, 2004 at Fenway Park. Jose Contreras' final start as a Yankee.
Yankees 6, Red Sox 4, September 24, 2004 at Fenway Park. A frustrated Pedro, having lost again, calls the Yankees "my daddy."
Yankees 4, Red Sox 3, April 5, 2005 at Yankee Stadium. Jeter hits a walkoff, ninth-inning homer off Keith Foulke.
Red Sox 7, Yankees 3, April 6, 2005 at Yankee Stadium. The fans boo Rivera after a blown save. Shameful.
Yankees 1, Red Sox 0, September 11, 2005 at Yankee Stadium. Randy Johnson's best and most important performance as a Yankee.
Yankees 2, Red Sox 1, August 21, 2006 at Fenway Park. Cory Lidle outpitches Wells to complete the Yankees' remarkable five-game sweep for Boston Massacre II.

Nine homers in 13 games now for A-Rod. Just remarkable. And you know who has to be cheering on A-Rod more than even Yankees fans? Bud Selig.

Imagine if this baseball summer features not only Barry Bonds' passing of Hank Aaron for the all-time home run record, but A-Rod's pursuit of Bonds' single-season mark (73 in 2001). A-Rod may not be very popular in the Bronx, but the commissioner's office loves him. There's not a shred of evidence that A-Rod's home run totals are tainted. And A-Rod won't snarl at the fans and media.

Of course, we're a long way away from that happening. At the same time, we're not talking about some one-hit wonder putting together the month of a lifetime. No one would dispute that A-Rod has the skills and work ethic to make a run at Bonds. Can he handle the pressure? We'd have to see.

But in the eyes of baseball's CEO, anything that took away from Bonds' historic moment _ well, almost anything _ would be a delightful distraction.

Brian Cashman has a stack of DVDs in his office. He hasn't yet watched them, and he doesn't know if he will. It's the games of Triple-A Scranton.

With the weather so ridiculously cold, Cashman said, he's not sure what, if anything, he can glean from viewing. He figures he'd be better off spending his time on other pursuits.

Small sample sizes are hard enough when you're talking about baseball, but this April has been far more difficult to draw conclusions. Between the myriad days off and the terrible conditions in which so many games have been played, baseball officials know better than to infer much. For instance, one American League official who spoke on the condition of anonymity believes that the Red Sox pitchers, largely a flyball group, have benefited from the cold. Some balls, that have stayed in the park, will go out later as the heat arrives.

How difficult is that for you, as the paying customers? Are you prone to wondering whether Carlos Delgado and David Wright will ever go deep again? Are you ready to declare Akinori Iwamura a future Hall of Famer?

Certainly, many in the media are guilty of such rushes to judgment. As fans, how hard is it, after so many months of waiting for live action, to sit back and let the season play out some more before you start worrying/celebrating?

Loyal reader Bob Buscavage read my Sunday notes and e-mailed, "...wishful thinking, but maybe Omar can talk Ichiro into wearing a Met uniform..." It is indeed a fanciful thought, but not a bad one.

My money is still on Ichiro Suzuki, in his walk year, to return to the Mariners for 2008 and beyond. but let's say that Seattle ownership, for whatever ludicrous reason, doesn't offer Ichiro a good contract, and the Japanese superstar becomes a completely open-minded free agent.

I don't think the Yankees have room for him, given their commitments to Hideki Matsui and Johnny Damon through 2009 and the tempting possibility of exercising Bobby Abreu's $16 million team option for next year, not to mention the possible development of Melky Cabrera (yes, he's been very bad so far this year).

But how about the Mets? Shawn Green will be gone after this season, and sure, we know about the impressive young trio of Carlos Gomez, Fernando Martinez and Lastings Milledge. But much can change in a season. One or more could depart in a trade. There could be injuries, or just regression.

Ichiro, now a full-time centerfielder, would be willing to move back to a corner spot in the right situation, his agent Tony Attanasio told Newsday yesterday. A big-market, winning team, with Carlos Beltran already in centerfield, would certainly qualify as a right situation. And the Mets, in addition to acquiring an All-Star _ their commitments to Carlos Delgado and Pedro Martinez end after 2009, so there'd be only one year of payroll overlap _ could finally capitalize on the Japanese market. They've tried in the past, you might recall, but it didn't work out very well.

I know, there's so much season to play, but I also know that many of you love projecting beyond this year. What do you think, Mets fans? Would you rather see the kids get a shot? Or do you want Omar Minaya to contemplate another multi-year, huge-dollar commitment?

Hi, I'm Ken Davidoff. Welcome to my blog. I know, I'm a little late to this party, but I've always been tardy when it comes to technology and style. I purchased my first CD in 1998, and that was only for a friend's band. And I didn't get sideburns (okay, maybe it's closer to this) until 2003. So relatively speaking, for myself, I'm ahead of the pack.

As Newsday's national baseball writer, my job differs from those of our Mets and Yankees beat writers, David Lennon and Kat O'Brien. While I spend a good amount of my time with the Mets and Yankees, I also cover the industry as a whole. Last week, for instance, I attended Daisuke Matsuzaka's Fenway Park debut, and in the coming months, I'll be writing plenty about Barry Bonds.

So this blog will be a potpourri of baseball issues local and national. There'll be some opinions, some reporting, some personal memories of the game that will hopefully open your own memory banks. But really, I'll work off your feedback. This blog will be shaped by your likes and dislikes. And by the discussions and dialogues (let's keep it PG-13) that we can create.

My initial plan is to post Monday through Friday, having something up by 9:30 or so, and then adding items as the news and buzz warrant it. But again, this is very much a work in progress, so we'll see how it goes. For now, I encourage you to check in here each morning. I'm off to Philadelphia for the Mets' two-game visit to Citizens Bank Park, and we'll see if we can actually get a game in tonight.