I tend to be stubborn about my preseason predictions. My belief is that I attempt to forecast the destination, not the precise journey, so when teams get off to starts worse or better than I anticipated, I try to roll with it and figure the hot streak/plummet will come down the road.
Sometimes, this pays off, like when I hung with the 2005 Yankees, although I just missed in picking them to win the American League wild card, not the AL East. Other times, it just leads to frustration, like when last year's Braves never found themselves.
This season, I picked the Yankees to win the AL wild card, and the Mets to finish in second place in the NL East, out of the playoffs. I can absolutely picture a destination for the Yankees to realize my forecast. For the Mets, it's a little more difficult.
The Yankees' turnaround looks like cake, compared to what they did in 2005. That year, in order to get from 39-39 to 95-67, they needed three near miracles: 1) The sudden metamorphasis of Jason Giambi from a decomposing embarrassment to his old self (insert performance-enhancer suspicions/jokes here); 2) Aaron Small's emergence from complete oblivion; and 3) Shawn Chacon's dominance after arriving from Colorado.
This time, no miracles appear necessary. The talent base is already there. Even if Bobby Abreu, Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui approach their past sucess _ if they simply improve upon their current, dramatic regression _ that should suffice. The starting rotation should only get better with the returns of Roger Clemens and Phil Hughes. The AL wild card is totally attainable.
As for the Mets, I thought their starting rotation would struggle far more than it has. Kudos to their talent evaluators for trusting John Maine and Oliver Perez with such important roles, and to Willie Randolph and Rick Peterson for developing those guys. Nevertheless, we'll see whether they can keep it going. Maine has hit a pothole, which merely makes human, but the next step is to come out of it stronger. Meanwhile, the Mets should have something coming from Carlos Delgado, and David Wright has officially awakened.
Speaking of awakenings, the Phillies, my preseason NL East selection, are playing much better lately. We'll see if they can keep it up. There's a ton of season remaining, and I'm not close to asking for a do-over, no matter how many of you question my sanity.
Comments (2)
Boy, writing a blog at 2:38 a.m...hope you get paid overtime...anyway, the Yankees seem to counting on Clemens to be a savior...it's asking a lot for a "part-time" 45 year old pitcher...I'm still picking the Mets, with the Braves as the Wild Card...unless the Phillies have a healthy Ryan Howard...and finally, it sure looks like the Cardinals will go from the penthouse to the outhouse.
Aren't you the same guy who predicted Richard Hildago will win nhe AL MVP a couple years back? You were just a ltttle off on that prediction.