Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

The Mets were a confident team in spring training, and I admittedly didn't get it. Where was their pitching going to come from? What about the age in their lineup? And I loved what the Phillies had done over the winter, adding Freddy Garcia and Adam Eaton to an already promising starting rotation. So in Newsday's baseball preview section, I predicted the Phillies to win the NL East and the Mets to finish out of the playofs.

Across the Triborough Bridge, meanwhile, I thought Brian Cashman had taken huge risks by relying so heavily on Kei Igawa and Carl Pavano, not to mention the notion that Andy Pettitte could thrive back in the AL. But I also thought the Yankees' lineup was dominant, and that Mariano Rivera would produce a typical season. So I tabbed the Yankees as the AL wild card, with the strengthened Red Sox taking the AL East.

I didn't look too smart for a good part of the year, as it looked like I underestimated the Mets and overestimated the Yankees, and some of you rightfully questioned me here, and here, and here, and here. But today, _ thanks more to Kyle Kendrick and Kyle Lohse than Eaton and Garcia _ I appear not as much of a moron, an appearance I'm confident will dissipate as soon as my World Series picks each go down in three first-round games.

A couple of thoughts, though, in this rare moment when I have hand, to borrow an expression from this "Seinfeld" episode.

1) With revenue sharing and the luxury tax has come more parity than ever. That means more in-season turnarounds than ever. The Yankees, Phillies, Cubs and Rockies all emerged from deep holes. The Tigers, Mets and Brewers all blew big leads. So we all need to stop the common, early-season declarations of a team being "in it for sure" or "dead." It doesn't take much for a team to go from the top to home for October.

2) The sabermatricians know what they're talking about. I pointed out the Yankees' good Pythagorean record early on in the season, when they were underachieving, as evidence that they would turn things around. Likewise, remember the Yankees' horrible record in one-run games at the beginning of the year? At one point, they were 4-12 in such games. They wound up 18-21, a result partly of Joba Chamberlain's arrival, partly of better play _ and partly because sometimes luck goes your way, and sometimes it doesnt.

Tomorrow, once we have our 8th playoff team, I'll go over all of my preseason predictions and shred myself accordingly for the myriad awful picks (like a Tigers-Giants World Series, for instance).

1. The Mets, in their last stand of a mind-blowing month, will win two of three games from the Marlins. But they'll need some help. In following the advice of Billy Wagner (middle of this story), Willie Randolph will call upon Tom Seaver, Jerry Koosman, Jesse Orosco and Skip Lockwood to get the final eight outs of Sunday's game.

2. Meanwhile, down in Philadelphia, the Phillies will take two of three from the Nationals, setting up a Mets-Phillies playoff game on Monday (which the Phillies will win). The Phillies' overworked bullpen will contribute 3 1/3 innings on Sunday, then drive north and help the Eagles with their kickoff coverage.

3. At Camden Yards, the Yankees will take two of three games over the Orioles as they prepare for the playoffs. But in a revolution of sorts, the rookies will force the veterans to leave Baltimore dressed up as the characters from "Hairspray."

4. In Boston, meanwhile, the Red Sox will go 1-2 in their three remaining games against the Twins, clinching the AL East and relegating the Yankees to wild-card status. Manny Ramirez will commemorate the Sox's first division title since 1995 by demanding a trade. The Indians will take two of three from the Royals, giving Cleveland the top seed, so the AL playoffs will be Indians (1) vs. Yankees (4) and Red Sox (2) vs. Angels (3).

5. The Brewers, Diamondbacks and Padres will secure the NL's other three playoff spots, but Bud Selig, deploying common sense, will announce, "I'm sorry, we can't let the world see how awful the National League is," and cancel the NL postseason. The winner of the ALCS, Selig will say, will be baseball's champions.

This gentleman on the right is Bill Giles, the Phillies' chairman and the honorary National League president. That title's few responsibilities include attending the All-Star Game every year and talking trash with his AL counterpart, Jackie Autry. It's all harmless.

But if Jackie Autry wanted to, she could call Giles right now and say, "Yo, Bill, your league is a joke!"

We've got just four days remaining in the regular season, and not a single NL team has clinched a spot in the playoffs. That is remarkable, especially when you consider that the Yankees' victory last night left the AL to sort out only its seedings.

Mets and Phillies for the NL East, Cubs and Brewers for the NL Central, Diamondbacks, Padres and Rockies for the NL West. Everyone besides the Cubs and Brewers (not to mention the Braves, the longest of longshots) for the NL wild card.

The talent levels are just awful; compare the Diamondbacks, who have the NL's best record, with the Yankees, who will likely own the AL's fourth and last seed, and then remember that the Yankees swept the Diamondbacks in a three-game series, back in June.

But, as I was discussing with a few of my fellow scribes last night at Shea Stadium, who cares? This is awesome, that we have so much to follow in these final days. That we have a decent chance of seeing a one-game playoff Monday for something. That rich teams and poor teams alike are contending. This is the result of Good Bud Selig _ revenue-sharing and the wild card _ not to be confused with his evil twin, Bad Bud Selig.

There are too many different scenarios to anticipate, so we'll keep watching, tallying the results and re-calibrating the odds. This, indeed, is a great time for baseball.

Well, unless you're a Mets fan.

When Newsday bigwig Jeff Weinberg e-mailed me last night, asking for a blog topic that he could plug in today's newspaper, the Yankees were leading the Devil Rays, 5-0. It seemed a natural time to disucss the Yankees' postsesaon roster. Alas, it's not so natural now, but it still works, as the game most certainly will factor into Joe Torre's and Brian Cashman's thinking on certain players.

Most obviously, if any of you out there are still Brian Bruney fans, the party ended last night.

So even though the Yankees still need one more victory (or a Tigers loss) to seal an October invitation, let's project their 25-man roster, and humbly offer our suggestions.

Catchers (2): Jose Molina, Jorge Posada. That was easy.

Infielders (5): Wilson Betemit, Robinson Cano, Derek Jeter, Doug Mientkiewicz, Alex Rodriguez. No dilemmas there, either.

Outfielders (6): Bobby Abreu, Melky Cabrera, Johnny Damon, Shelley Duncan, Hideki Matsui, Bronson Sardinha.

Designated Hitter (1): Jason Giambi.

This might be the best, most versatile group of position players the Yankees have had in quite some time. With Cabrera in centerfield and Mientkiewicz, it's the best defensively since a non-awful Bernie Williams and Tino Martinez manned those positions in the late 1990s.

Pitchers (11): Joba Chamberlain, Roger Clemens, Kyle Farnsworth, Phil Hughes, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte, Mariano Rivera, Jose Veras, Ron Villone, Luis Vizcaino, Chien-Ming Wang.

Wow. I admit, until I counted, I didn't realize how uninspiring the Yankees' bullpen options were. I had only nine automatics (excluding Veras and Villone), and in an ideal world, I'd tell Farnsworth that he wasn't wanted.

Admittedly, I have already changed this composition once this morning on the blog, adding pinch runner Sardinha and subtracting Chris Britton, after reading of Joe Torre's interest in adding a pinch runner. That makes sense. Britton is no great loss.

With that in mind, I chose Veras because he has pitched pretty good lately _ in particular, he has held lefty hitters to one hit in 10 at-bats _ and Villone because he's a somewhat reliable veteran.

Edwar Ramirez gives you a different "look" with his changeup, I realize, but "look" at his recent numbers. Brutal. Bruney can't throw the ball over the plate to save his life, and his personality, during this year of adversity _ sour, uninterested in taking accountability for his performance _ explains why the Diamondbacks got rid of him last year for nothing.

Britton has been nothing special. Kei Igawa is the only other real option, and based on his minor-league numbers, I'm not 100 percent ready to write him off for the future. But the Yankees should quit while they're ahead with Igawa, pack him in ice and try again in 2008.

The Yankees essentially mailed it in yesterday, in their final regular-season home game, and they'll pay no real price for it. When the Yankees wind up falling short of the AL East title, settling for the wild card, they won't have the homefield advantage in the playoffs. Big whoop.

Baseball absolutely needs to create a greater disincentive for teams to get the wild card, as opposed to the division crown. At the moment, neither the Yankees nor the Red Sox possesses major motivation to go hard after the division. The rivals are better off resting up, letting the chips fall where they may and going full-bore next week.

At least one wild-card team has competed in the past five World Series. That's too frequent for my liking.

So what should be done? There are two ideas I like the best. One has been floated repeatedly by Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Here is his latest argument in favor of it. The gist: Each league adds one more wild-card team, and then the postseason kicks off with a best-of-3 series between the two wild-card teams. This gives the three division winners three days to rest, and puts the wild-card survivor at a significant disadvantage when it enters the round of four.

Here's another one I like, borrowed from Japan's Pacific League: In the Division Series, the wild-card entry has to win four games, while the top seed has to win only three. So if the Yankees played the Indians, for instance, the Yankees would be required to win four games before Cleveland took three. Talk about a disincentive to be the wild card - and motivation for teams to fight for the top seed. For this to work, teams in the same division would have to play each other if they are the one and four seed, respecitvely.

So what do you think? Do you like Joel's idea? Or the Japanese idea? Or are you perfectly content with the status quo?

Amazing, isn't it? The Mets actually lost a game to the Phillies within the last week, but now, after three straight victories over Florida, it feels as though their crisis has passed. The Yankees, meanwhile, gained three games on the Red Sox in the AL East, but with the Tigers fading away from the AL wild-card chase, only silly people are going to get fired up over a mildly relevant seeding.

The tension is largely over for our New York locals, as it appears we'll have our second straight double-entry into the postseason. So here are 10 issues that need to be resolved, locally and nationally, over the next seven weeks - in no particular order.

1. Can Orlando Hernandez help the Mets in the postseason? El Duque hasn't pitched in 12 days due to a bunion on his right foot.

2. Can Roger Clemens help the Yankees in the postseason? The Rocket missed time with an ailing right elbow, and in the past week, he has been pushed back twice due to a left hamstring problem.

3. Do the Phillies have another run in them? Not on the Mets, but on the reeling Padres, whom they trail by just a half-game (one in the loss column) for the NL wild card. It won't be easy for the Phils, not with the Braves at Citizens Bank Park for three games starting tomorrow.

4. Okay, the seeding issues do matter some. Will the Mets pass the Diamondbacks for homefield advantage throughout the NL playoffs? Can the Yankees overtake the Red Sox and even gain the top seed? Can the Yankees avoid playing their nemeses, the Angels, in the first round?

5. NL MVP: Matt Holliday vs. Jimmy Rollins vs. David Wright. The final week could be a factor.

6. AL Cy Young: Josh Beckett vs. C.C. Sabathia. At this point, both will be preparing for the playoffs, but stats are stats.

7. NL Manager of the Year. Does Arizona's Bob Melvin have it wrapped up, or should the Phillies' Charlie Manuel get it if his pitching-deprived club somehow reaches the postseason?

8. The Cubs. It'll be fun to see them clinch and drown Lou Piniella in champagne, and prepare to end the Curse of the Billy Goat.

9. Manager farewells. Buddy Bell already knows he's gone, while Pittsburgh's Jim Tracy figures to be out of work. How about Seattle's John McLaren? Cincinnati's Pete Mackanin? And, most intriguingly, will impending free agent Tony La Russa shop around, return to the Cardinals or take his first breather after 29 straight years of managing?

10. Player farewells. This'll be it for Long Island's own Craig Biggio. What about Barry Bonds? Mike Piazza? David Wells? I'd bet on seeing Piazza and Wells in spring training next year, still not so sure about Bonds.

In the proud tradition of Barry Bonds, I'm using a photo of my child (and me, and Paws) as a shield against any critics of my predictions.

1. The Mets, who seem cursed at the moment, will drop two of their three remaining games to the Marlins at Dolphin Stadium. With stress continuing to mount _ Paul Lo Duca, Marlon Anderson and Lastings Milledge have all been ejected in the past week _ umpires will feel compelled to toss out, at different junctures, Willie Randolph, pitching coach Rick Peterson, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Tom Glavine, Willie Collazzo, bullpen catcher Dave Racianello and former clubhouse attendant Kirk Radomski.

2. In Washington, meanwhile, the Phillies will win two of three over the Nationals, closing within a half-game (one in the loss column) of the Mets. Jimmy Rollins, whose NL MVP candidacy improves by the day, will proclaim, "We're the team to beat. But it sure would be nice if one of our starting pitchers could go, like, six innings."

3. The Yankees, a playoff spot virtually clinched, will stumble, dropping two of three to the spoiler Blue Jays. Saturday's starter Ian Kennedy, who is planning a wedding in addition to helping the Yankees, will capitalize on the long, eight-run, bottom of the fourth inning, and elope.

UPDATE: Reader Jeff points out that it's a four-game series, so let's make it a 2-2 split. And with Kennedy scratched from his start, and Roger Clemens taking his place, I'll predict that Clemens will not elope during the game. Don't think the current Mrs. Rocket, Debbie, would approve.

UPDATE #2: Now Clemens has been scratched for Phil Hughes. I give up.

4. In Tampa Bay, meanwhile, the Red Sox will sweep the Devil Rays, increasing their AL East lead to 3 1/2 games and stopping the somewhat misguided talk of 1978 (the wild card didn't exist back then, you know). Setup man Eric Gagne, who has been nothing short of a fiasco since coming aboard, will miss the team bus, hop in a cab, tell the driver, "Take me to the baseball stadium," and wind up in an ironically wrong place.

5. The Brewers will win two of the next three in Atlanta, while the Cubs will take two of three against the Pirates at home, keeping Milwaukee 1 1/2 games (one in the loss column) behind. The Brewers, having feasted on Houston's young pitchers this past week, will wonder, "Who are these guys Hudson and Smoltz?"

You'd be hard-pressed to argue that the Yankees "miss" Bernie Williams on the field, based on how their season has transpired. GM Brian Cashman made the right call last winter when he declined to offer the ultra-popular outfielder a guaranteed contract.

But do the Yankees miss Bernie Williams' class, his quiet dignity? No question, as Joe Torre would say.

Shed no tears for Bernie, however; he's doing just fine. Yesterday, I had the opportunity to watch Bernie rehearse for his biggest musical gig to date. Accompanied by a phenomenal, eight-piece band, including saxophonist Riche Cannata (who has worked with Billy Joel), Bernie will perform five original songs tomorrow night and then do one song together with Jose Feliciano. Here are the details, if you're interested in attending.

I wrote a story about Bernie in today's Newsday, but, to steal a trick from all-world blogger Neil Best, I wanted to share some more thoughts from Bernie for which I didn't have room in the story.

Ramdom thoughts:

They showed it during SNY's telecast last night, courtesy of the Elias Sports Bureau: Never, in Major League Baseball's100-plus years, has a team held a seven-game lead on September 12th and proceeded to lose the division.

The Mets led the Phillies by seven games in the NL East, a week ago tonight. This morning, that lead is down to a game and a half, two in the loss column, and old-timers (and old-time enthusiasts, like myself) think about Gene Mauch's 1964 Phillies.

Are you speechless, Mets fans? This has been a mind-blowing five days, with Mike Pelfrey trying to prevent an RFK Stadium sweep tonight. Consider this: If the Mets lose tonight, and the Padres win, the Mets would own a worse record than the NL wild-card leader.

A few thoughts:

I respectfully disagree with my friend, mentor and former Newsday colleague Jon Heyman, who recently disparaged VORP, the new-wave statistic for Value Over Replacement Player. I love looking at VORP to get a feel for who is underrated and overrated by this measure.

Now, when it comes to voting for the Most Valuable Player, I think VORP has its limits. I believe that, all things being equal, an MVP should come from a team that at least seriously contends for a playoff spot.

If you look at these VORP standings _ yes, JoeNunz, I wiped the dust off my MasterCard and invested in a Baseball Prospectus premium account _ you'll see that there will be zero debate in the American League. Alex Rodriguez has the highest VORP in all of baseball, and he'll almost certainly win the award unanimously.

Florida's Hanley Ramirez paces the NL in VORP, however, and the Marlins' shortstop, pictured above, might not get a single first-place vote. He wouldn't get mine (full disclosure: I'm voting for NL Rookie of the Year).

I like to call my philosophy about the MVP "contextual," although I'm not sure that matches the unofficial definition. I look at each season as a living, breathing entity, with peaks and dips that are shaped by certain players.

I think it mattered that the Twins' season turned around last year when Justin Morneau woke up. I think it mattered back in 1999 when Chipper Jones buried the Mets in the division race with a spectacular display of September hitting. On the negative side, I think Derek Jeter hurt his candidacy last year by refusing to voice public support for the slumping Alex Rodriguez.

Consequently, I think it matters that Ramirez and his teammate Miguel Cabrera put up great numbers in a vacuum. We won't remember the Florida Marlins. We'll remember how Prince Fielder saved his Brewers from drowning, or how David Wright carried the Mets in the dog days. We'll remember how valuable those guys were not only to their teams, but to the 2007 championship season.

Is this the most intellectually rigid approach? Certainly not. But I do think it's what the Baseball Writers Association of America had in mind when it originated the term "Most Valuable Player." The idea wasn't, "Who carried the most value over a Quadruple-A player at his same position?" It was, "Who meant the most to that season?"

So, to summarize: Love VORP. Just don't want to marry it.

We couldn't have asked much more from our Mets-Phillies and Yankees-Red Sox series this year, don't you think? Sure, the Yankees and Red Sox always engage in knockdown battles like last night's. But this year, the Mets and Phillies approached their American League counterparts for drama, if not necessarily quality of play.

The Mets lead the Phillies in the NL East by 3 1/2 games, four in the loss column, while the Yankees trail the Red Sox in the AL East by 4 1/2 games (four in the loss column), and hold a 2 1/2-game lead (three in the loss column) over the Tigers for the AL wild card.

Two weeks from now, these races will all be settled _ or, we'll be witnessing one-game playoffs. So let's take a look at what we have left for our two local clubs and their foes:

Mets
Remaining schedule: Easy, with seven games against Florida (four on the road and three at home), six with Washington (three each at home and on the road) and one home makeup against St. Louis.

Phillies' remaining schedule: Easy, but harder than the Mets'. Seven games against Washington (four on the road and three at home), three at St. Louis and three at home against the Braves.

Best-case scenario: The Mets win each of their remaining series to clinch the division, the Phillies experience their typical post-Mets letdown and finish out of the playoffs and Long Island exhales.

Better-case scenario: The Mets take care of business and clinch the division, but the Phillies upend the Padres for the NL wild card.

Worse-case scenario: The Phillies overtake the Mets in the NL East, yet the Mets hold off the Padres to get the wild card.

Worst-case scenario: Manny Acta's Nationals continue their season-long fesity play _ but only against the Mets _ and the Phillies average 12 runs a game to finish off a miraculous comeback. And the Padres push the Mets out of the playoffs altogether.

Key Mets player: Jose Reyes. As he goes, so go the Mets. His two-error play yesterday, on Jimmy Rollins' second-inning grounder, defined the Mets' eight-game losing streak against the Phils.

Key Phillies player: Cole Hamels. He's scheduled to start tomorrow, after missing over a month with left elbow problems. If he can pitch like the ace he is, that could give the Phillies the kick they need.

Tiebreakers: 1. If the Mets and Phillies finish with the same record, and that record is better than all other wild-card contenders, then the Phillies would win the division and the Mets the wild card, based on the Phillies' 12-6 season record against the Mets.

2. If the Mets and Diamondbacks finish with the same record, then the Mets would get the top seed in the playoffs, based on their 4-3 head-to-head record against Arizona.

3. If the Mets tie the Phillies for the division, with a record worse than the wild-card leader, then the two clubs would play a one-game playoff Monday, Oct. 1 at Citizens Bank Park.

Yankees
Yankees' remaining schedule: Easy on the surface, with six games (three each at home and on the road) against Baltimore, four with the Blue Jays at home and three at Tampa Bay.

Red Sox's remaining schedule: Slightly challenging. A six-game road trip this week to Toronto and Tampa Bay, followed by a closing, six-game homestand against Oakland (two games) and MInnesota (four games).

Tigers' remaining schedule: Starts off hard, with a three-game series in Cleveland, and then turns easy, with a six-game homestand against the Royals and Twins and three games at Chicago.

Best-case scenario: The Yankees complete their salute to 1978 and overtake the Red Sox for the AL East.

Better-case scenario: The Red Sox don't choke, but the Yankees continue their strong play to capture the AL wild card.

Worst-case scenario: The Yankees having played superb ball since July 1, start feeling the exhaustion of their efforts, and they fall behind the Tigers in the wild-card race, missing the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

Key Yankees player: Mariano Rivera. No time for blown saves or elbow flare-ups now. With Rivera manning the ninth and Joba Chamberlain the seventh and eighth, the Yankees alleviate pressure on their starting pitchers.

Key Red Sox player: Manny Ramirez. There's no telling when he'll return from his strained left oblique. The Bosox could use such a jolt right now.

Key Tigers player: Gary Sheffield. Who else? How much would he love to end Joe Torre's Yankees reign by carrying the Tigers? But Sheff has been terrible lately.

Tiebreakers: 1. If the Yankees and Red Sox finish with the same record, and that record is better than all other wild-card contenders, then the Yankees would win the division and the Red Sox the wild card, based on the Yankees' 10-8 record in head-to-head action.

2. If the Yankees and Tigers tie for the wild card, they'll play a one-game playoff Monday, Oct. 1 at Yankee Stadium.

3. If the Yankees win the wild card, whom will they play? Whoever finishes with a better record, between the AL Central and AL West champs.

The Angels and Indians, who currently have the same, 87-62 record, went 5-5 against each other. So if they finish with the same record, we must go to the second tiebreaker - division record. The Indians are currently 43-23 in the AL Central, a .652 winning percentage, while the Angels are 28-19 (.596). The Indians have six division games remaining, while the Angels have 10 games left in their division.

I tried to include the most obvious factors and scenarios here. If there's a question you have that wasn't answered, please let me know.

With things somewhat slow in our local baseball world, as both teams appear certainties for the playoffs, let's explore another timeless topic: Who are your favorite players to watch?

I don't necessarily mean the guy you root for the hardest, because he plays for your favorite team. I'm thinking more of players you simply enjoy seeing, because their game stands out among the masses. The aesthetically pleasing players.

This occurred to me last night, as I watched Orlando Hernandez pitch terribly for the Mets. Even in such games, however, it's fun to see El Duque - his leg kick, his arm angles, his scowls at umpires. El Duque also delivered my all-time, favorite individual moment that I personally witnessed _ when he fielded a Rey Ordonez grounder, couldn't get the ball out of his glove and then fired the entire glove to Tino Martinez for the out, on June 5, 1999.

If El Duque is my favorite pitcher, I'd call Ichiro Suzuki my favorite everyday player. He has such speed and grace, and he always seems to be smirking, as if he's getting away with something by receiving such a nice paycheck for playing baseball. His inside-the-park homer in this year's All-Star Game will go down as one of the Mid-Summer Classic's all-time highlights.

Which players do you enjoy watching the most?

It's just a matter of days now before I have to issue a mea culpa on my preseason "Mets won't make the postseason" prediction, something that will please blog reader Gary immensely. Although Gary doesn't seem quite as excited to concede that I'm looking pretty good on my "Yankees will win the AL wild card" pick, to which I stayed faithful through those awful first three months.

Anyway, looking ahead for the Mets, whom would you like to see in their postseason rotation? You'd have to guess that Orlando Hernandez, Tom Glavine and Pedro Martinez will start the first three games, good health premitting. El Duque and Glavine are slam dunks, and Pedro has earned the right to start, so far, thanks to his two encouraging 2007 performances.

What about Game 4, though? Would you like to go with the righty, John Maine, or the lefty, Oliver Perez? I considered it the primary issue in last night's 3-2 Mets victory over the Braves at Shea Stadium, as Perez dominated.

Perez dominated the Braves last night, picking up his fourth victory of the season against the Mets' nemeses, and once again, he is looking like pitching coach Rick Peterson's greatest reclamation project.Yet there have been times, as you know, when he looks like the old Perez, walking everyone in sight.

John Maine, meanwhile, pitched so well in the first half of '07 that fans protested his exclusion from the All-Star Game. Since the break, however, Maine has a 4-5 record and woeful 5.86 ERA.

I'd have to go with Perez, because he is the more talented of the pair and more likely to dominate a good lineup. What would you do?

My brother-in-law got married Friday night in Dearborn, Michigan, so I spent about 72 hours in the greater Detroit area. On Saturday, I went to this game, which was horrible. Rough, rough times for my alma mater.

But on Thursday, I experienced a much more enjoyable sporting event. I took my 3-year-old son to Comerica Park for his first major-league game, White Sox-Tigers.

I rarely go to games as a fan, so I wind up evaluating most ballparks by other factors, primarily aesthetics and working conditions for the media. But in sitting at Comerica with my son, it was fascinating watching things from his vantage point. Most of all, he loved Paws, the team mascot _ that's him pictured to the right, believe it or not _ and he got to give Paws a high-five and pose for a picture with him.

In all, I found Comerica to be extremely family-friendly. There were no hostile fans seated in our area (behind home plate); waiter service made food runs unncessary; and there's a merry-go-round where kids can ride on tigers. It occurred to me that neither Shea Stadium nor Yankee Stadium could provide this sort of experience for children. Not becuase the organizations don't like kids _ although the Yankees don't seem to care for people involved in hurricanes _ but because they simply weren't designed to cater to specific groups like families and high rollers. The new ballpaks in Queens and the Bronx, both scheduled to open in 2009, figure to be much better.

But since I'm a newbie when it comes to taking the family to the ballpark, I wanted to hear from you. How family-friendly are Shea and Yankee Stadiums? Have you had notably good or bad experiences in big-league parks throughout the land?

1. The Yankees, despite some recent struggles against bad teams, will win two of three over the Royals in Kansas City. Jorge Posada, who essentially removed Chien-Ming Wang from Tuesday's game, will continue his role as mama bear. He'll remove the red-hot Alex Rodriguez tonight in the seventh inning, when he notices A-Rod limping on his achy right ankle; he'll call Roger Clemens in Houston and remind him to rest his elbow; and he'll forbid Robinson Cano from a second helping of Fruity Pebbles.

2. The Mets will win two of three games from the Astros at Shea Stadium. In his 2007 home debut Sunday, the revived Pedro Martinez will pitch six innings, allow two runs and, for nostalgia's sake, dance while the Shea sprinklers accidentally go off.

3. The Phillies, trying in vain to catch the Mets, will take a 30-0 lead over Florida on Saturday, tying a season record. But they'll blow the lead in the ninth, falling, 32-30, in a game featuring more scoring than any NFL Week 1 contest.

4. The Cubs and Brewers, who enter the weekend tied for first place in the NL Central, will sweep their patsy oppponents (Pittsburgh and Cincinnati, respectively). This is very meaningful, because of the winner of this race will go 83-78 and then win the World Series.

5. The woeful Orioles will lose the next three games to the Red Sox at Fenway Park, leaving upper management with little choice. Manager Dave Trembley, whose full-time hiring kicked off this horrendous stretch, will be fired and replaced by the franchise's most successful manager of the millennium.

Wednesday could be viewed as a telltale day on the schedules for both of our local clubs. Out in Cincinnati, the Mets essentially conceded a game to the Reds, falling, 7-0, with half of their regulars sitting out. And they got away with it, as in Atlanta, the Phillies gave up a six-run lead, falling, 9-8, to the Braves.

In the Bronx, meanwhile, Alex Rodriguez did his Willis Reed tribute, powering the Yankees to a crucial, 10-2 victory over the Mariners.

We know by now that both local clubs are flawed. But their challengers in the NL East and AL wild-card race, respectively, are more flawed. Good Lord, can the Phillies not pitch. If they're to upend the Mets in the NL East race, they're going to have to average about 14 runs a game. And the Mariners simply have no right being in the race. It's a tribute to them that they made it this far.

Right now, the Yankees are on pace for a 90-72 record, and yet they hold a three-game edge for the wild card. Only two AL wild-card clubs, since the wild card began in 1995, have posted worse winning percentages - the 1995 Yankees (79-65, .549) and the 1996 Orioles (88-74).

The Mets are on pace to edge the Yankees, with a 91-71 mark. In the wild-card era, only the 2001 Braves (88-74) and 2005 Braves (90-72) have done worse to win the NL East. And remember that the Mets actually own the top seed for the entire NL.

This is all the byproduct of revenue sharing and the luxury tax. It's a good thing. But it's funny to espouse notions like, "The Yankees and Mets have to pick up the pace here." Because it looks like both are doing just fine.

Such is the cyclical nature of baseball: While the Mets continue to roll, the Yankees have stress even when they blow out their closest contender for the AL wild card. A week ago, remember, the Mets were getting swept in Philadelphia, and the Yankees were sweeping the Red Sox.

These are good times for the Mets, and on Sunday, Shea Stadium figures to be full of life when Pedro Martinez makes his first home start since returning from his October 5, 2006 right shoulder surgery.

How much do you want to be there, Mets fans?

Check out this site. As I post this, tickets are going for as low as $10 and as high as $535.

Pedro can't dominate anymore, not even in the National League. Does that take away from his appeal? Or does his artistry and his resume still make him a must-see?

At roughly 11 a.m. yesterday, in the Mets' clubhouse at Great American Ball Park, my Newsday colleague Anthony Rieber opined that the Yankees should not start Roger Clemens in their game against Seattle. Anthony said that the Yankees should rest Clemens, given his elbow and foot issues, and start Mike Mussina instead.

And to think, I didn't even have to ask Anthony. He just offered it up.

As it turned out, Anthony looked like quite the sage. Perhaps I should ask him to do my Weekend Predictions.

This was a tough call, I think. First of all, the Yankees have been so down on Mussina that they probably figured Clemens at 60 percent was a better shot than whatever Mussina could have provided. It looks like Mussina pitched a little better in his relief outing (as noted, I was watching Pedro Martinez in Cincy, so I didn't see it), but he still has much ground to make up.

The larger issue, however, is how much the Yankees trust, and should trust, Clemens. I know many of you perceive Clemens to be a brain-dead freak, your stereotypical Texan, like this guy from "The Simpsons."

But the reality is that Clemens knows his body extremely well. Remember, earlier this year, he delayed his Yankees return by a start because of "groin fatigue." At the time, the Yankees received criticism for allowing Clemens to extend his hiatus. So it's not as though Clemens, in his "warrior" mode, takes the ball regardless.

In any case, this is a very bad development for the Yankees. There's a good chance they'll win the wild card due to a lack of competition, but without a healthy Clemens, their postsesaon roatation looks considerably less imposing. Suddenly, Ian Kennedy's next start looms quite large.