Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

Who doesn't remember Steve Phillips, then the Mets' general manager, referring to Alex Rodriguez as a "twenty-four-and-one" player? It was seven years ago, the last time A-Rod was a free agent, and Phillips' attempt to smear A-Rod wound up hurting the Mets more than did the player. Everyone knew that the Mets simply didn't want to pay up for the game's best player.

Now A-Rod is a free agent once more, and as Newsday's David Lennon reports today, the Mets will at least contemplate the idea of pursuing the superstar.

That probably speaks more to the Mets' humillity, in light of their historic collapse, than anything else - "We can't rule out anything." But come on now, would any team have to rearrange more furniture than the Mets in order to make room for A-Rod? They have young All-Stars, signed to reasonable contracts, at both shortstop and third base.

It would be criminal to trade Jose Reyes, no matter how awful he looked toward the end of 2007. And really, David Wright, Mr. "I'd do anything for the team," deserves to keep his job at third base.

Remember, the Mets' offense perked up considerably after the All-Star break. There are enough bats here. The Mets need to figure out their pitching staff, if they are to move beyond The Collapse.

Yes, signing A-Rod would shift the spring-training attention from the past to the present, but that's not a good enough reason to mess with one of your few pillars. The Mets should pass on A-Rod once again, but this time because of solid, baseball reasons.

What do you think, Mets fans? Do you want A-Rod?

Loved the feedback to yesterday's item. A-Rod is a lightning rod, and we live in a free country where we're allowed to disagree.

Now, that said, I have to blow up two arguments made, in particular, by the A-Rod bashers:

1) "We won three World Series with Scott Brosius, so we can win without A-Rod."

Well, sure, the Yankees did win three titles with Brosius (pictured here in his Linfield College garb). But let's do some amateur statistical analysis:

Yankees Team ERAs

1998: 3.82
1999: 4.13
2000: 4.76
2001: 4.02

(Brosius left after '01, and A-Rod arrived in '04)

2004: 4.69
2005: 4.52
2006: 4.41
2007: 4.49

Notice any trends? Granted, that '00 season was insane; remember, those Yankees won just 87 games and still managed, somehow, to win it all. But otherwise, the Yankees didn't win three straight because they didn't have a superstar third baseman. I feel safe in saying that, if A-Rod were the Yankees' third baseman from '98 through '01, and Brosius from '04 to '07, the pinstriped title count still would've been 3-0, in favor of the earlier era.

2) "A-Rod is a loser because he never played in a World Series."

Puh-leeze. The Yankees wouldn't have sniffed October in 2005 or this year, especially, without MVP seasons from A-Rod. As discussed here, before, yes, he played well below his potential in postseason action from 2004 ALCS Game 5 through this past year, but so have many other Yankees in that time period.

A few other things:

I was frantically working on the Yankees' manager story last night, barely paying attention to World Series Game 4, when I received an Instant Message from Newsday teammate Jim Baumbach.

"Did you see Heyman's story about A-Rod opting out?" Jim wrote.

At that point, I'm pretty sure I looked like Large Marge from "Pee-Wee's Big Adventure."

But I recovered, and our Yankees beat writer Kat O'Brien did terrific work in getting Boras on the phone, herself, and now the baseball offseason looks dramatically different than it did 24 hours ago.

We'll analyze, soon enough, what the Yankees' options are. But today, let's salute A-Rod's agent, Scott Boras, who completely outwitted the Yankees' executives. Really, what Boras did was stand up to the Yankees' bullying ways, similar to how Clifford stood up to Moody in the underrated "My Bodyguard."

All along, the Yankees figured that A-Rod wouldn't leave, that he wouldn't find a better offer elsewhere (and to be fair, I agreed with them - but I don't get paid the big bucks to follow through on such hunches). So they figured they could issue threats, as Hank Steinbrenner did repeatedly (near the bottom of the story), without any accountability.

Now, the Yankees either have to let A-Rod go without even meeting with him in person to discuss the future, or they have to go back on their word and compete with everyone else for A-Rod's services. And the festivities to introduce their new manager have been completely upstaged by Boras and A-Rod.

Boras may strike you as cold-blooded, but he is nothing short of brilliant. If you hate the Yankees, you have to love him today. And, even better, if you hate bullies, then you, too, have to sign up for Boras Worship.

Man, is this winter going to be fascinating.

Barring massive weather delays that push this World Series into Saturday, Nov. 4, this will be the final Weekend Predictions until the start of the 2008 regular season. Thank you for not hating them.

1. The Rockies will pound the Red Sox, 9-2, in World Series Game 3 Saturday night at Coors Field, closing within 2-1 in games. Daisuke Matsuzaka will last just 2 2/3 innings, causing to lament that he didn't work harder between starts on his gyroball.

2. The Rockies will tie the series Sunday, in Game 4, with a 7-4 victory. Matt Holliday will atone for his Game 2 pickoff by slamming an eighth-inning homer off Jonathan Papelbon, then performing a Riverdance.

3. When Red Sox reliever Eric Gagne hits Colorado's Brad Hawpe with a pitch on Sunday night, Red Sox board director/head steroids investigator George Mitchell will feel compelled to deny he had anything to do with it.

4. Yankees general manager Brian Cashman will continue discussing and debating the club's huge decision with team ownership, until Cashman finally gives in and says: "All right, all right, we can get the calzones for lunch again."

5. Tony La Russa, who re-upped with the Cardinals this past week, will help the Cardinals find a new general manager by reaching into his past.

Jason, a college friend who grew up on Long Island, e-mailed me yesterday with this thought:

Imagine how different things would be if yanks traded for beckett and sox signed pavano...

Let's ignore the fact that Jason's not into capitalization in his e-mails, and see if we can figure out how the world of The Rivalry would have changed with that succession of events...

(Imagine your screen gets wavy now, like a flashback scene from a number of movies, like this one...)

December 12, 2004: The Red Sox announce their signing of Carl Pavano to a four-year, $41-million deal.

December 22, 2004: The Yankees, spurned by Pavano, sign Matt Clement to a three-year, $25-million contract.

June 26, 2005: Pavano, after a whiny, mediocre half-season, complains of shoulder soreness and shuts himself down. Manny Ramirez, admiring Pavano's laziness (just like Homer of Larry Burns in this episode), shuts himself down, as well.

July 31, 2005: With Clement pitching well for the Yankees, and no jobs available in the rotation, a crestfallen Aaron Small, buried at the Yankees' Triple-A Columbus affiliate, retires.

October 10, 2005: The Yankees, with Clement piching poorly by the end of the year, lose to the Angels in the AL Division Series. The Red Sox, with both Pavano and Ramirez on vacation, miss the playoffs altogether.

November 22, 2005: The Yankees, realizing they desperatly need young, power arms, trade Robinson Cano and Phil Hughes to the Marlins for Beckett and Mike Lowell, whom they spin off to San Diego as a salary dump. The Red Sox respond by trading Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez to Minnesota for Francisco Liriano.

April 5, 2006: Under the tutelage of Curt Schilling, Pavano gets his act together and pitches well for the Sox, allowing two runs in seven innings. Feeling as though he has met his goals, Pavano then exaggerates six injuries to keep him out for the rest of the year.

October 1, 2006: With Beckett struggling through the bulk of the season, and with starting second baseman Miguel Cairo dragging down the lineup, the Yankees miss the playoffs. Joe Torre is fired and replaced by Lou Piniella.

October 26, 2006: With Liriano _ who, at the Red Sox's insistence, sat out the World Baseball Classic _ thriving as the new, young ace, the Sox win their second World Series title in three years.

April 30, 2007: "I feel like I've finally overcome my past," Pavano says, after picking up his third victory in five starts. Pavano undergoes Tommy John surgery that night. And Liriano, gassed from his '06 heroics, soon joins Pavano on the Tommy John list.

September 27, 2007: Beckett, having learned from his first year in the American League, wraps up a brilliant, 20-8 regular season.

October 8, 2007: Red Sox Game 4 starter Roger Clemens, having signed back in May for an annual salary of $28 million, lasts just 2 1/3 innings due to an ailing hamstring, and the Red Sox lose to the Angels in the ALDS.

October 31, 2007: Beckett wins World Series MVP honors in leading the Yankees to their first Fall Classic title in seven years. Yankees fans name team president Randy Levine their Most Favorite Person Ever. Torre, part of Fox's broadcast team, calls it "an insult" that Beckett pitched better for Piniella than he did for him.

July 31, 2008: Pavano announces that he has purchased a new Porsche.

2009-2018: The Yankees and Beckett win three more World Series titles. The Red Sox and Liriano win two more.

July 28, 2024: Beckett enters the Hall of Fame with a Yankees cap on his plaque. Pavano enters a Burger King in West Palm Beach, FL and orders a Whopper.

Greetings from Boston, one of my favorite cities, as we prepare for World Series Game 1. My hotel is walking distance from Fenway Park, and we have perfect fall weather.

Some random thoughts:

My year as a baseball writer doesn't differ dramatically from yours' as a baseball fan. There are four distinct parts: Spring training, regular season, postseason and offseason. Each has its unique hours and rhythm.

This year, however, has differed. The postseason started 20 days ago, and I've been to four games - the entire American League Division Series between the Yankees and Indians. I didn't even attend the Yankees' pre-series workout at Jacobs Field, because I was busy tying up loose ends in our Mets' "bloody aftermath" coverage.

From one bloody aftermath to another, I spent the past two weeks covering the Yankees from home, and as you know, that's not yet wrapped up. But the World Series is a must-attend industry event, and hey, it'll be nice to get outside and see some baseball, even if it requires packing my heavy fall jacket.

My question goes to you Mets and Yankees fans out there. Will you watch this World Series? Or have you already begun your winter hibernations? It should be a good series, both in terms of talent and storylines. But I'd understand if you Mets fans are wondering how you're going to upgrade your pitching staff, and if you Yankees fans are wondering what the team is going to look like on Opening Day.

So let me know whether you'll watch. Bud Selig wants to know, too. He might even be willing to let you see an early copy of The Mitchell Report if you watch.

While taking a quick break from Yankees coverage yesterday, I attended the birthday party of my son's friend, Jonah. There, as we gorged ourselves on pizza and cake, another dad engaged me by asking this question:

"How much do you buy into the 'chemistry' thing with the Yankees, going from winning all of those World Series to all of those postseason disappointments?"

Short answer, as I tried to avoid talking with food in my mouth: "I'm still not sure."

How much of the 1996-2001 Yankees was about "character and chemistry," and how much was about great pitching and defense and timely hitting? That 2001 ALDS comeback against the A's, after losing the first two games, at home, was remarkable. But was that about Paul O'Neill's and Tino Martinez's resilience? Or was it about Mike Mussina, at the peak of his career, pitching a phenomenal Game 3 in Oakland, and Derek Jeter pulling off the play of a lifetime, and momentum taking the Yankees from there?

Look at it this way: When did the Yankees come closest to winning it all after O'Neill's retirement? 2003, when they pitched the best. The remarkable Game 7 comeback occurred because Mussina relieved Roger Clemens and shut down the Red Sox.

Now, at the same time, I can't sit here and completely discount character. Not when no one on the '04 club could come up with a big hit in those final two and a half games, and especially not in '06, when the Yankees came apart like a cheap sweater _ although, again, the pitching was terrible, too.

Look at what the Red Sox just did last night (and thanks to Reuters and the NY Times web site for the photo). Does that speak to their character? Or does it speak to the fact that three talented starting pitchers _ Josh Beckett, Curt Schilling and Daisuke Matsuzaka _ won three straight game?

What's your take? How much of the Yankees' disappointing postseason results of the last six years (I don't count 2001 as a disappointment) can be blamed on chemistry?

Here's Yankees president Randy Levine, telling reporters, "Sorry, I'd love to stay and chat, but I've gotta make a low-ball offer to Joe Torre, and then I'm gonna read Weekend Predictions!"

1. The Red Sox will defeat the Indians, 8-2, Saturday night in ALCS Game 6, tying the series at three games apiece. Curt Schilling will pitch well despite spilling ketchup on his sock during a pre-game snack.

2. The Indians will survive a thrilling Game 7, defeating the Red Sox, 5-4, to advance to the World Series for the right to take on the Rockies. Manny Ramirez, who will homer and drive home two runs, will shrug afterwards and say, "It's not the end of the world. Oh, and also, trade me."

3. The Rockies, resting after their NLCS sweep of the Diamondbacks, will somehow be credited with two more victories during their down time. They're just that hot right now.

4. Lie-detector repairmen and -women will be extremely busy, as all the machines blew up on Thursday when Levine said that he considered Torre, his nemesis, to be a "great person."

5. The Yankees will surprisingly let Brian Cashman hire Torre's replacement, but Cashman's selection will not be surprising. That's right, Marty Miller.

I think "Lock Up" is my favorite under-the-radar, unsequelized, unambitious Sylvester Stallone movie. I saw it on August 4, 1989, at the Showcase Theater in Ypsilanti, Michigan. Good action, good, cheesy acting and dialogue.

My favorite line comes from Sly's Frank Leone character, and later gets used against him by Dallas, played by the extremely troubled Tom Sizemore: "D.T.A."

Don't Trust Anyone. I think of that all the time while doing my job.

The Yankees say they won't negotiate with Alex Rodriguez if A-Rod opts out? D.T.A.

Scott Boras says that A-Rod can set the all-time hits record? D.T.A.

As I attempted to articulate in today's Newsday, it's best to ignore this whole "Will the Yankees pursue A-Rod as a free agent?" debate. As you know, the Yankees want to keep A-Rod under his current deal, so that they get the $30-million alimony payment from the Rangers over the next three years. In order to retain that subsidy, they'll offer A-Rod what figures to be a monster extension beyond 2010.

But if A-Rod opts out, it's going to be because he and Boras have a pretty good idea that they can beat that offer, and they'll know who it's coming from.

So when the Yankees say, "We won't get into a bidding war," it's not a matter of principle. Don't view the Yankees as claiming the moral high ground. It's more a matter of reality; their bidding war will take place before the opt-out, not after it.

D.T.A. comes in handy especially well during baseball's offseason, when there is no on-the-field action and so much rhetoric. If Joe Torre comes back, as now appears likely, then we won't have to put the D.T.A. test on Torre loyalists Mariano Rivera, Jorge Posada and Andy Pettitte. They'll all be back, for certain.

In the meantime, if you haven't seen "Lock Up," then give yourself a couple of hours and check it out. If nothing else, it's the only movie I know of that features the Ickey Shuffle.

Well, it took them long enough, but the Yankees made their decision yesterday. It was bold and forward-thinking, and I think history will look kindly upon their choice.

I'm talking, of course, about the decision to order their lunch from Wright's Gourmet Cafe (the link isn't working, for some reason) for their meeting yesterday, as Newsday reported. While I enjoy shopping at Publix during spring training, I've never tried their seafood.

Full disclosure: This Joe Torre-in-limbo story has been one of the most intriguing/aggravating assignments of my professional career. The Yankees, to their credit, have largely stayed quiet, which has produced deduction, interpretation, speculation and frustration in the media world. My bet, as I type this morning, is that Torre will not be asked back. But it certainly wouldn't shock me if the Yankees announced a two-year extension for Torre today.

So, with that in mind, let's turn to a simpler matter: Lunch, my favorite meal. If you haven't been to Wright's in Tampa, while there for spring training or other matters, you're missing out. Great sandwiches, and save room for the awesome desserts.

In my adult life, I've probably spent the most time in Manhattan, Ann Arbor and Tampa (insert joke/insult here). In Manhattan, I love Good Enough to Eat on the Upper West Side. Outstanding, original dishes, plus you can play Six Degrees of Kevin Bacon with the man himself, who is often around. In Ann Arbor, as a Michigan student, I loved Amer's on campus and Zingerman's off campus. Both give you immense, delicious sandwiches.

Throughout the years, in my baseball travels, I didn't go out to lunch a great deal. My routine was: Wake up, phone calls, work out, room service, more phone calls. But a few spots around the majors stand out. In August, as the Mets were getting swept, I went to The Continental in Philadelphia with colleague David Lennon. Awesome food, and quick, friendly service, too. A couple of years ago, I met a friend at Chef Geoff's in Washington, D.C. Eating there makes you feel like you're a bona fide part of the Beltway.

Last year, during the World Series, I went to lunch at KitchenK in St. Louis. Very good food and lively atmosphere.

Please offer your Torre predictions/lunch recommendations while we all wait for the Steinbrenners to figure things out.

Very sorry for today's tardiness. Between breaking news and a trip to my son's doctor to treat his croup, it was a long, late night and a long, early morning.

I nodded off around the time of the final out of NLCS Game 4 -- thanks to the Associated Press for this photo -- but I saw the celebration, which was awesome. What an amazing story.

The Rockies are the latest, and best, evidence that you win with youth and versatility. I admit, I'm still getting to know this team; I had never even heard of Seth Smith until last night. But what a talented, deep lineup, and what hard throwers in the starting rotation, and what a stable back of the bullpen.

To get to here, of course, the Rockies endured over a decade of misery, with GM Dan O'Dowd handed a second chance and then a third chance. So patience, too, is essential, something we New York baseball followers should contemplate.

The Yankees are facing big decisions this winter, outside of the Torre dilemma. They really have little choice but to re-sign Jorge Posada and Mariano Rivera, because their farm system, while rapidly improving, doesn't have reinforcements for this essential pair, not with Joba Chamberlain slotted for the starting rotation. The goal is to have replacements ready to go.

And the same goes for the Mets, who appear inclined to bring back 40-somethings Moises Alou and Orlando Hernandez, even though both can drive you batty with their frequent visits to the disabled list.

The Rockies' success, as well as that of the Indians, who are leading the ALCS, provide us one with one to grow on.

Let's take a break from the Joe Torre watch to look at another big baseball story. We're getting closer to the release of the George Mitchell report, and as ESPN's Buster Olney reported, the release will likely include "big names" that we haven't heard before.

Now, take a step back. Let's say that there's a huge scandal in your company, something that occurred over a period of years. It becomes public, and it's clear that something must be done to address it.

Now let's say the head of your company _ who is, potentially, just as guilty as everyone else _ starts an internal investigation. And to head this investigation, your big boss appoints a personal friend and political ally.

How would you feel about that? Not too great, I'd imagine. So you can understand why the Major League Baseball Players Association has offered minimal help to Mitchell, who is Bud Selig's pal _ and the Red Sox director, to boot.

If Mitchell "names names," he had best realize that the scrutiny on HIM, as much on those players, will intensify. How did he get the names? How were they vetted? Was he more lenient on the Red Sox, given his connection there? Was he more lenient on the Cubs, given that his law firm has ties with them (scroll down)?

Rest assured that not a single player named in this report will ever serve a day of suspension. Selig could suspend them, but it would be mere symbolism. And unless the evidence matches that which we've gotten on Barry Bonds, Mark McGwire and Rafael Palmeiro _ if it's just, "He said, he said," _ then it won't effect my Hall of Fame vote.

In My Humble Opinion, this investigation was toast the day Selig announced it, March 30, 2006. A reporter from HBO Sports asked Selig whether this endeavor could lead to Selig's resignation. Selig dismissed the question, telling the reporter that he would have known better than to ask such a query if he were around baseball more.

But what value does an internal investigation hold if everyone's job isn't on the line? Here at Newsday, a few years ago, we had an awful scandal regarding the exaggeration of circulation figures. It caused our publisher to push up his retirement.
That's the kind of accountability I'm talking about.

Really, when this investigation becomes public, there's only one big name I'm interested in seeing. And that name is Bud Selig's.

1. The Red Sox and Indians will split the first two games of the American League Championship Series, with Josh Beckett winning tonight and Fausto Carmona tomorrow. A pack of Lake Erie midges will emerge, suspiciously, and attack Curt Schilling on Saturday, but the insects will collapse from exhaustion after trying to read Schilling's blog.

2. The Diamondbacks will win Game 2 of the National League Championship Series tonight, and the Rockies will win Game 3 Sunday, back at Coors Field. TBS and Major League Baseball officials, who already scheduled the games with the Western audience in mind, will placate its Eastern fans by offering alternative programming.

3. Joe Torre, awaiting his fate, will spend time with his family and catch up on some stuff he's missed over the last 12 years.

4. With veteran general managers dropping like flies _ Minnesota's Terry Ryan and St. Louis' Walt Jocketty have also left their posts in the last month _ the Yankees' Brian Cashman, 40, will be referred to by other GMs as "the old guy."

5. Wal-Mart will remove all Mr. Met Holloween costumes from its stores, after deciding the outfits are a choking hazard (this one, I stole from my uncle the stock broker).

George Steinbrenner earned a two-year ban from baseball (ultimately reduced to nine months) because of illegal donations he made to Richard Nixon's re-election campaign. Yankees president Randy Levine used to be a deputy mayor under New York City's Rudy Giuliani. GM Brian Cashman once told Bloomberg News that Bill Clinton should be impeached for the Monica Lewinsky affair.

So I Laughed Out Loud yesterday when Dennis Baer of Bethpage sent me an e-mail detailing the Yankees' futility under Republican presidencies.

As Dennis pointed out, the last time the Yankees won it all with a Republican in power was 1958, when they edged the Milwaukee Braves, 4-3, with Dwight Eisenhower running things. In the subsequent 49 years, they have won eight more World Series titles, but all came with Democrats in the White House _ 1961 and 1962 under John F. Kennedy, 1977 and 1978 with Jimmy Carter and 1996, 1998, 1999 and 2000 under Bill Clinton.

The Republicans will have presided during 29 of those 49 Fall Classics, by the end of this season, and no one can match the Yankees' eight titles during that period; the Dodgers rank second, with five. So the timing of the Yankees' success, relating to the United States' election cycle, is statistically amusing.

Bottom line: If you love the Yankees, it's time to dedicate your efforts to getting the Democrats back in power. If you're a Mets supporter, keep in mind that your two titles came under Nixon (in 1969) and Ronald Reagan (in 1986), and join the Republicans.

Maybe the Yankees' seven-year drought has nothing to do with Joe Torre, and everything to do with George W. Bush.*

*That was a joke.

P.S. My LCS picks: Indians over Red Sox in 7, and Rockies over Diamondbacks in 6.

All right, might as well throw it out there: Do any of you want to kick A-Rod out of the Bronx because of his postseason struggles?

Now, let's be clear: I'm not buying the "small sample size" defense when it comes to A-Rod's postseason performance since Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS. All you had to do was watch A-Rod's first two at-bats in Monday night's season-ending ALDS Game 4 to see how anxiety impacts his performance. Check out this column by Newsday alumnus Tom Verducci, to see just how awful A-Rod has been in his last 16 1/2 postseason games.

But...look how the other core Yankees have hit during the same period (since A-Rod's third-inning homer in '04 ALCS Game 4):

Derek Jeter: .296 (21-for-71), 3 HR, 12 RBI
Hideki Matsui: .219 (14-for-64), 1 HR, 2 RBI
Jorge Posada: .271 (16-for-59), 2 HR, 4 RBI

So even with this year's horrible series, Jeter still looks pretty good. Not so much the other two. Not as bad as A-Rod of course, but then again, which Yankees player has contributed the most over the past three regular seasons?

The point being, no one player can get a team into the World Series. Carlos Beltran couldn't in 2004, when he had arguably the best postseason in baseball history. A-Rod could have been off the hook if his teammates had picked him up.

So the Yankees will be making the right move when they bring back A-Rod.

Yes, I think they will bring him back. You've got to love Scott Boras' bluster, in already touting A-Rod for a mega-mega-mega deal. But it should be be a pretty simple process: The Yankees will make a huge offer to extend A-Rod beyond 2010, Boras will do his best to read the market on whether that offer can be surpassed, and A-Rod will respond accordingly. My guess is A-Rod and Boras decide that they won't get a better offer, and sign, let's guess, a six-year, $216-million extension through 2016 _ giving A-Rod, in effect, a nine-year, $297-million deal.

Do you want A-Rod back in pinstripes? Or are you just disgusted with him, at this point?

Another Yankees season over, and more disappointment for the fan base. What are you gonna do? You could argue that the series turned on the Game 2 arrival of the Lake Erie midges. Crazy stuff happens this time of year, and there's little time to recover.

Joe Torre is all but gone, and I think it's the rational call, even it will be overseen by a historically irrational man. Here's my explanation for why I think the Yankees should thank Torre for 12 years of great serivce and move forward.

But if you're looking for optimism in this dark moment, I think you have the right person, in general manager Brian Cashman, to guide the club through this treacherous period.

I admit, I had my doubts about Cashman during his first eight years on the job. I thought he made some abominable calls on pitching acquisitions, most prominently 1) trading Ted Lilly for Jeff Weaver (in a three-way deal) in July 2002; 2) opting for Javier Vazquez over Curt Schilling in the 2003-04 offseason; and 3) leading the charge to sign Carl Pavano in December 2004. It was easy for some of my fellow media types to say, "If only Cashman could run the team without interference, the Yankees would be great!" I thought that was bogus.

But since getting that real power in October 2005, Cashman has turned the team model on its head, relying far more often on internal solutions and spending big bucks on the amateur draft rather than big-league free agents. He's not perfect, but I'm not even ready to write off Kei Igawa. Have you seen his minor-league stats?

The Yankees' starting rotation next year should feature some mix of Chien-Ming Wang, Andy Pettitte (assuming he exercises his $16 million player option), Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, Mike Mussina and Igawa. We'll see about Joba Chamberlain. I think the Yankees should seriously consider keeping Joba where he is, in a setup role, groomed as Mariano Rivera's successor at closer; I think Rivera will return.

The lineup should be strong again, with everyone expected back (yes, I believe Alex Rodriguez will return). If there's anything Cashman can work on, it's even more organizational depth, so that the new manager has myriad options for his bullpen and his lineup. When you look at the way the Indians, Diamondbacks and Rockies are constructed, you see very little dead weight there.

Cashman will enter the final year of his contract in 2008, so there'll be some speculation coming around about his future. But unlike Torre, I think the call will be Cashman's. And the Yankees should hope to keep him.

Here's what Cashman said early this morning, as his clubhouse emptied out: "Am I tired of falling short? Yeah, I’m tired of falling short. But I promise you, as long as they give me the opportunity, I’m going to keep getting back up. And I know everybody else is going to do the same thing, keep pushing to find a way. That’s what you do. That's the game you love."

Cashman said Torre wasn't to blame for this ALDS loss, but he said, pointedly, that all decisions for '08 in beyond will be based not on the '07 failure, but on what's best for the organization's future _ in his mind, at least. Translation: He and George Steinbrenner will come to the same conclusion about Torre, even if it's for different reasons.

This Associated Press photo is from last night's Yankees playoff game, and could very well be Roger Clemens' final departure from a major-league mound. The Rocket failed the Yankees last night, lasting just 2 1/3 innings before departing with his ailing left hamstring.

Right now, people are viewing Clemens' fourth unretirement as a failure, posting his myriad injuries and his mediocre statistics against his enormous salary. I respectfully disagree. I say that, if Clemens has to retire at last because his body has betrayed him, then his last year will ultimately be viewed as a worthy finale to his Hall of Fame career.

(Let's take a breather here for the required Clemens-steroids issue. As always, I say, go ahead and speculate, but I need some concrete evidence before proceeding to public indictment.)

Of course Clemens wasn't worth the $17.4 million he received this year (thanks to the AP for that precise figure), but the Yankees always knew they were overpaying for him. Remember how bad the Yankees' rotation was at the start of the season? Clemens arrived and provided stability _ he pitched five or more innings in 14 of his 17 starts _ as well as energy and education. If you replace those 17 starts with the likes of Matt DeSalvo and Tyler Clippard, you don't get that, and you might miss the playoffs.

His 104 ERA+ shows that his pitching was just above that of the average pitcher; Andy Pettitte's 107 ERA+ was only slightly better, albeit in far more innings. You all know that the 6-6 record holds minimal relevance, as it reflects run support more than performance.

Did the Yankees expect more? Undoubtedly. But they enjoyed having him around, and they never questioned that Clemens was working as hard as he could to get out there. If anything, the Yankees drew criticism for trusting Clemens too much when the 45-year-old wanted to pitch. It's quite a contrast to some other Yankees of recent vintage.

Clemens' final pitch last night was a swing-and-miss to Victor Martinez, the Indians' cleanup hitter. Not a bad way to go out, if that was the end. The Yankees won the game, Phil Hughes can take the rotation spot if the Yankees advance, and that's that. There are far worse ways to exit the stage.

1. The Yankees will win Game 2 today and Game 3 Sunday, thanks to strong pitching performances from Andy Pettitte and Roger Clemens and a homer each game from Alex Rodriguez. However, Doug Mientkiewicz will continue his string of media-influenced bad luck when he gets bopped in the head by a TBS microphone and trips over John Sterling's tape recorder, skinning his knee.

2. The Red Sox will mow over the Angels for a series sweep _ which will be a relief, since Manny Ramirez had requested to miss Games 4 and 5 for a personal appearance.

3. The Phillies will win two straight in Coors Field, forcing a Game 5 next Tuesday back at Citizens Bank Park. While at Coors, Rockies star Matt Holliday will finally touch home plate.

4. The Cubs will win both of their home games over the Diamondbacks, sending their NLDS back to Chase Park. But Lou Piniella will stir things up even in victory, cutting off Sunday's post-game news conference after 85 seconds. "I've got to speak again after Game 1 of the next round," Lou will explain.

5. "I'm bitterly disappointed," Mets COO Jeff Wilpon will say, after seeing "Good Luck Chuck" on Saturday night.

If you're a Yankees fan, perhaps you should root for a loss in tonight's Game 1. Look at what has transpired in the last seven Yankees playoff openers:

2000: Yankees lose to Oakland, 5-3, proceed to win the series.
2001: Yankees lose to Oakland, 5-3, proceed to win the series.
2002: Yankees beat Angels, 8-5, proceed to lose the series.
2003: Yankees lose to Minnesota, 3-1, proceed to win the series.
2004: Yankees lose to Minnesota, 2-0, proceed to win the series.
2005: Yankees beat Angels, 4-2, proceed to lose the series.
2006: Yankees beat Detroit, 8-4, proceed to lose the series.

Interesting, don't you think? Inexplicable, too. If you can offer a theory behind this that targets anything besides randomness as the impetus, I'd love to hear it.

Out of curiosity, I researched the other 21 Division Series _ 14 in the NL, 7 in the AL (because the Yankees were playing in the other seven) _ since 2000, to compare the trends. In those 14 NL series, only twice has the series winner lost the opener (and vice versa, naturally): The Marlins dropped Game 1 of their '03 NLDS to the Giants before winning the next three, and the 2000 Mets, similarly, lost the opener to the Giants before winning the next three.

In the AL, just two of the seven non-Yankees series went to the club that lost the first game: The '01 Indians, the last Cleveland team to make the playoffs prior to this one, won Game 1 against tough Seattle before eventually losing in five, and the '03 Red Sox lost the first two games to the A's before coming back.

With that in mind, I'll say the Yankees reverse that trend this year. I think likely 2007 AL Cy Young Award winner C.C. Sabathia will shut down the Yankees in tonight's Game 1 _ and he'll do it again in Game 5, to lead the Indians to a series victory.

I'm tired of discussing predictions, so I'll quickly offer my picks _ so you can hold them against me _ and then we'll move onto a hotter topic.

American League: Red Sox over Angels; Indians over Yankees; Indians over Red Sox.
National League: Cubs over Diamondbacks; Phillies over Rockies; Cubs over Phillies.
World Series: Indians over Cubs.

Now, let's talk about this story. My buddy Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press e-mailed this to me earlier Tuesday. If you went on Wikipedia Tuesday morning and entered "Willie Randolph," this is what you would've read:

Willie Randolph, often considered the worst manager in baseball history, has now been at the helm for 3 major collapses in 3 seasons
as manager of the Mets. In his first season, 2005, he led the Mets
during a 2-13 stretch in September ending their hopes for a wild-card
berth. In his second season, he led the Mets to a 7-game defeat to
the clearly inferior Cardinals in the NLCS where the Mets were clearly
the best team in the National League. In the 2007 season, he led the Mets to the biggest collapse in baseball history, blowing a 7-game division lead with 2 weeks to go in the season and a 2.5 game lead with 7 games to play.

I know this is the sort of stuff that should be laughed off, and by late Tuesday, these words had been completely wiped off Willie's bio. But I love a good debate, and I hate it when people are intellectually dishonest.

The bad September in '05 was a major collapse? Please. The '05 Mets were a mediocre team with an awful closer. And the '06 NLCS? The Mets competed without Pedro Martinez or Orlando Hernandez, and with a third starter, Steve Trachsel, essentially abandoning the team, and they battled their rear ends off before losing to the eventual World Series champs in the ninth inning of Game 7.

This year? Rip away. Obviously an awful job from everyone under Mets employ, from ownership to the players and everyone in between.

So, I ask: Do you hate Willie as much as this anonymous Wikipedia editor does? Or are you okay with the idea that he'll get a chance to clean up this mess next year?

Perhaps this is just an ego trip, but I feel it's most accountable to recall my preseason predictions and assign grades. I hate it when people do stupid things, and then pray that people forget about them. I'd rather bathe myself in the transgression, take ownership of it and learn from it.

For instance, in 2005, I picked Richard Hidalgo to win the 2005 AL MVP award. It was such an outrageous notion that Bill Eichenberger, Newsday's sports editor at the time, thought I owed the readers an explanation, which I reluctantly provided. All you need to know about Hidalgo's performance that year is that he hasn't played in the major leagues since. Some people, both in my office and among the readers, still remind me every now and then of the Hidalgo pick, as well they should.

Still scarred by that experience, I have since aimed lower in my awards picks. This year, for MVP, I chose Boston's David Ortiz in the AL and the Phillies' Chase Utley in the NL. Ortiz put up very good numbers, but he was no match for A-Rod, and as for Utley, I chose the wrong Phillies middle infielder. Grades: B+ for Ortiz, B for Utley.

For the Cy Young Award, I went with the defending trophy-holder, Johan Santana, in the AL, and I thought Roy Oswalt would pick up the slack in Houston from the departed Roger Clemens and Andy Pettitte. No glory there. Grades: B+ for Santana, B for Oswalt.

In the Rookie of the Year, I thought highly of Boston's Daisuke Matsuzaka and Arizona's Chris Young. I'm 0-for-6 so far. Grades: B for both.

My Manager of the Year selections were dreadful. I thought Texas' Ron Washington and San Francisco's Bruce Bochy would still be working now. Yeesh. Grades: F for both.

Among teams, I had the Red Sox and Yankees topping the AL East, with the Yankees getting the wild card (Grades: A for both). I thought the Tigers, with Gary Sheffield would top the AL Central.(Grade: B). And I thought Texas would capitalize off the "We fired Buck Showalter" trend (Grade: F).

I selected the Phillies to win the NL East (Grade: A), the Brewers in the NL Central (Grade: B), the Diamondbacks to capture the West (Grade: A) and the Giants to win both the wild card and the NL pennant (Grade: F-).

Among the other clubs that actually made it, I had Cleveland in third in the AL Central (Grade: C-), the Angels in third in the AL West (Grade: D-), the Cubs in fourth in the NL Central (Grade: D) and the Rockies in last in the NL West (Grade: F).

I'll start postseason picks tomorrow and see if I can turn smarter (or at least luckier).