Ken Davidoff's baseball insider

On Thanksgiving Eve, I am most thankful, professionally, for those who move the needle. Those figures or issues in baseball who cause people to care, one way or the other, and to check in with their own opinions.

So, in what perhaps (but probably not) will become a Thanksgiving tradition, I'd like to offer my first annual Overrated and Over-hated List. My personal take on who in baseball gets too much credit, and who gets too much grief. And sometimes, a figure receives too much love from one segment and too much vinegar from another.

Carlos Beltran: Over-hated
Barry Bonds: Over-hated
Scott Boras: Over-hated
Scott Brosius: Overrated
Melky Cabrera: Overrated
Frank Caliendo: Overrated
Brian Cashman: Both
Roger Clemens: Over-hated
Coffee: Overrated
Double-switches: Over-hated
Jason Giambi: Overrated
Joe Girardi: Neither
Instant Replay: Over-hated
Derek Jeter: Overrated (but, apparently, under-taxed)
Leaked grand jury testimony: Overrated
Paul Lo Duca: Overrated
Pedro Martinez: Overrated
Omar Minaya: Over-hated
George Mitchell: Overrated
The NFL's drug program: Overrated
Rick Peterson: Over-hated
Willie Randolph: Over-hated
Jose Reyes: Over-hated
Alex Rodriguez: Over-hated
Bud Selig: Both
The "old" George Steinbrenner (as in, "We need Steinbrenner to act like 'The Boss' of old"): Overrated
Hank Steinbrenner: Over-hated
Joe Torre: Both
Bobby Valentine: Over-hated
VORP: Over-hated
David Wells: Over-hated
The Wilpons: Over-hated
Wins (by a pitcher): Overrated
David Wright: Neither

Happy Thanksgiving to all of you, and all of yours. Tomorrow starts a vacation for me, so the next time I'll check in, Monday, December 3, I'll be in Nashville for the winter meetings. Take care.

If he could have led the life he imagined, Tom Glavine never would have set foot in the Mets' clubhouse at Shea Stadium. He would've spent his entire career with the Braves.

But five years ago, Braves GM John Schuerholz wouldn't pay Glavine what the left-hander thought he was worth, and Glavine bolted to the Mets, who were trying to establish credibility in the post-Bobby Valentine era.

All along, you had the sense that Glavine was biding his time in Flushing, waiting for his chance to jump back to the Braves. Sort of like Season 3 of "Cheers," when we all knew that Diane would eventually leave Frasier to go back to Sam.

But say this for Glavine: If he didn't become the ace the Mets hoped, he at least gave them innings and consistency. If he didn't move his family from Atlanta, he at least invested himself in New York, getting involved in myriad charity ventures and acting as a team spokesman with the media.

Then there was September 30 at Shea. Yeesh. What a horrendous way to end his time in a Mets uniform.

Which brings us to the question of the day: Now that Glavine is officially a Brave once more, how you will treat him when he pitches in a Braves uniform at Shea Stadium? It's bound to happen, given the Braves' three visits to Flushing.

I don't have a strong opinion on this one. I could understand cheers or boos. What will you do?

Sorry for the extreme tardiness. We had technical problems this morning, and then I had to take care of a personal errand.

What strikes me today, as we approach Thanksgiving, is how fat the Yankees' and Mets' wallets are. The Yankees can sign Jorge Posada, and Mariano Rivera, and Alex Rodriguez, and it's like they're just doing their annual holiday shopping.

On a smaller scale, the Mets are bringing back Luis Castillo, but remember, they would have gladly matched the four-year, $52.4-million deal the Yankees gave Posada. And if there were an ace to be had on the free-agent market, the Mets would likely be all over him.

Our local clubs have tried to emphasize development in the last couple of years, but this winter spending shows the miles they have to go before they can claim success. Granted, we're talking about a couple of future Hall of Famers in Rivera and A-Rod, and a possible third one in Posada. But the Yankees didn't have much leverage in these negotiations, because they didn't have obvious replacements (since they want Joba Chamberlain to start, not pitch relief).

The Yankees and Mets can claim fiscal responsibility, but the truth is that they, along with the Red Sox, have the most room for error in baseball. If Rivera's elbow blows out this April, or if Castillo flops, the clubs can absorb those mistakes like many small-market clubs can't. It's an unfortunate reality of baseball's financial structure. The good news is that revenue sharing and the luxury tax have nevertheless made the game more balanced than it ever has before.

Barry Bonds is an indicted man now, but as we know, indictments don't necessarily lead to convictions, particularly when it comes to celebrities. O.J. Simpson, Michael Jackson, Robert Blake - it's a long list of free famous people, no matter how damning the evidence against them appeared.

So we'll see what happens. But we should be at peace with this reality: There are no heroes here. Obviously not Bonds, who deserves whatever comes his way. But not our government, either, which seemed absolutely hellbent on snaring Bonds, no matter the financial or moral cost. When you're trying to get Jason Grimsley to help you catch Bonds, that qualifies as a witch hunt.

We in the media didn't do very well, either. We treated the leaked grand-jury testimony _ not only of Bonds, but Jason Giambi and Gary Sheffield _ as no big deal, when we should've been outraged. Our country is supposedly about protecting everyone's rights, no matter how sleazy you are. Bonds, Giambi and Sheffield deserved better, in this instance. And, as the above linked story shows, the leak came from Victor Conte's attorney, in the hopes of pointing the finger at the government and hurting its case against Conte. So while the San Francisco Chronicle did some brilliant work, it's fair to wonder if, in the case of the leaked grand-jury transcripts, it actually aided the guilty.

It should be a fascinating case. Will Bonds' attorneys attempt to open things up to the greater issue of the widespread steroid usage in baseball? How will the government prove that Bonds "knowingly" used performance-enhancing drugs, if Bonds' trainer Greg Anderson won't talk?

We'll find out, eventually. But in the meantime, no one should be feeling particularly proud or triumphant over what has transpired.

Of course it's egotistical to make this A-Rod situation all about me, but really it's about all of us. The time we all lost to this ridiculous saga, because adults couldn't figure out a way to peacefully reach agreement on a marriage that, ultimately, made too much sense not to continue.

You can spread the blame every which way. I understand that most of you will be inclined to put the onus on A-Rod and Scott Boras, and that's your prerogative. Certainly, this is Boras' darkest hour as an agent, and have no doubt that people around the industry are absolutely reveling in it.

So we move forward now, and it looks like the Yankees could have essentially the same team as 2007. Mariano Rivera should come back, eventually, and I don't see how Andy Pettitte turns down the opportunity to pitch for such a talented team. Although I'm the same genius who was blogging here, just yesterday, that A-Rod wouldn't be a Yankee again.

Are any of you so bitter at A-Rod that you would have preferred he went elsewhere? Or are you willing to forgive him for costing you this month and move forward? You'd have to think that A-Rod will get that World Series ring over the next 10 years. The Yankees spend too much money not to win one by accident over that long a period.

As our two New York clubs move forward, trying to figure out how they can both spend the most money and actually perform well in October, it's interesting to see where they're headed. One clear priority for both clubs is fielding.

Defense is the hardest of baseball's facets to quantify, but a look at old-fashioned fielding percentage shows that the Yankees did all right last year _ 11th in the majors, sixth in the American League, while the Mets were a woeful 20th overall and 10th in the National League.

The NL champion Rockies led all of baseball with a .989 fielding percentage, and now the Mets are moving aggressively to sign Colorado's catcher, Yorvit Torrealba, pictured above. It would be the right move.

Torrealba doesn't have much of a throwing arm _ he threw out fewer base-stealers (13 of 74, according to Stats Inc.) than did the Mets' Paul Lo Duca (17 of 89) _ but at the least, Torrealba has a superior reputation. And Torrealba, at 29, is more than six years younger than Lo Duca, 35, so he figures to be more durable over the next two to three years.

Over in the Bronx, the Yankees have already committed to Johnny Damon in leftfield, at Joe Girardi's urging, because they saw how well Damon played out there toward the end of the 2007 season. And at third base, unless Alex Rodriguez accepts a discount (which won't happen as long as Scott Boras represents him), the Yankees will look to prioritize defense. Which is why Miguel Tejada isn't a good fit. Given Derek Jeter's declining defense at shortstop, the Yankees need someone to help out their captain.

It's not the most exciting approach, but it's the most practical, for both sides.

Back in my fan days, I hated Tommy Lasorda. Yet I was captivated by him. In those Yankees-Dodgers World Series, I loved watching him scream and hug, and waddle around in his ill-fitting Dodgers uniform.

I've gotten to interview Lasorda a few times over the years, and I've found him eminently likeable, with the understanding that, like all of us, there is some darkness beneath that bright exterior. Yesterday, I met with Tommy at a Barnes & Noble in Manhattan, where he was doing a signing for his new book, "I Live For This."

Los Angeles Times sports columnist Bill Plaschke actually wrote the book in the third person, so it's more of an authorized biography than an autobiography. And to Lasorda's credit, it's not an empty tribute to the Hall of Famer. I just started reading it yesterday, but Plaschke touches on some of the insecurities and foibles that make Lasorda the enigma that he is.

Nevertheless, there was 80-year-old Tommy yesterday, signing books for nearly two hours, smiling for all of his guests, personalizing the tributes, throwing out lines like, "I hope you enjoy reading this as much as I enjoyed living it" as though he just thought of them, at that moment, for the first time.

Tommy was in a reflective mood in the few minutes I had with him. "Nobody's close to being honored as many times as I've been honored," he said. "And I say it with humility. If I could make it, anybody could make it." In his own way, he really does say it with humillity, even if there's an undercurrent of the insecurity, the need to keep proving himself to people, that Plaschke discusses in the book.

Lasorda is my favorite baseball enemy - the person whom I loved to hate the most in my fan days, but now, that those battles have ended, I appreciate all the more. We all have people like this, I'd guess. Remember when the Fenway Park crowd gave Joe Torre a standing ovation in 1999, when Torre returned to the Yankees after missing time to treat his prostate cancer?

Bobby Hurley and I were born in the same year, and his four years at Duke matched my four years at Michigan. Michigan played Duke in basketball five times in those four years - Michigan won the first one, and Duke the next four. Man, did I hate Hurley. But when I ran into him a few years later, after his NBA career was cut short due to that horrible road accident in Sacramento, I shook his hand and thanked him for those incredible games.

Who is your favorite baseball enemy?

In other news:

Melky Cabrera is such a pleasure to watch that you can lose sight of where he fits into the greater baseball universe. This became relevant when reporting on the Yankees' interest in Johan Santana, which is considerable.

Take a step back and look at things from the Twins' point of view. They have, arguably, the best pitcher in baseball, who is a year away from free agency and will probably be too expensive to re-sign. They are also quite likely to lose Torii Hunter, their franchise centerfielder, to free agency.

But they have two cornerstone position players in Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, and with Francisco Liriano coming back from Tommy John surgery, they have a starting rotation that should keep them in nearly every game _ and a closer in Joe Nathan who will protect nearly every lead they get. There's enough still here, in other words, to contemplate a playoff run.

So if you're going to trade Santana, you want to replace his spot in the starting rotation, but also, you want to upgrade your offense, which will have taken a hit with Hunter's departure. Phil Hughes would be a fine replacement in other words, but he's a downgrade from Santana, even when you consider the finances and the years you'd have Hughes under control. You need an impact offensive player.

So how would Cabrera do as Hunter's replacement? Let's look at OPS+, which measures players' OPS (on-base-plus-slugging percentage) against their contemporaries. An OPS of 100 means that you're average offensively - above that means that you're above average, and below that means you're below average.

Torii Hunter's 2007 OPS+ was 122. Melky Cabrera's? 89.

As a complementary player for the Yankees, as the ninth hitter, Cabrera is perfect. He's strong defensively, takes the extra base, brings a youthful energy to the party, switch hits. And he's only 23, so there's every reason to think that he can get better.

As a trading chip, though? His value has a ceiling. The Twins need a middle-of-the-lineup hitter - like Robinson Cano. His 2007 OPS+ was 120.

Perhaps the Twins will decide to fully rebuild, and decide that a package of Cabrera, Hughes and a prospect (Jose Tabata?) is enough for Santana. I wouldn't bet on that, however.

My impressions: 1) That has to be the series finale. Where can they go from there? The last minute or so was sort of an epilogue; 2) Given Larry David's real-life issues, we should've realized that he and Cheryl wouldn't get back together on the show; 3) This marked David's second chance to do a series finale right, since most of us were disappointed by the final "Seinfeld." If the "Seinfeld" finale swung for the fences and missed, the "Curb" finale connected like Roy Hobbs at the end of "The Natural." Incredible.

Most everyone has left here, as the general managers' meetings have concluded. But a few officials have stuck around to do the town with their families, and why shouldn't I do the same? My wife and 4-year-old son arrive today, and my son is excited to see the parrots that hang out in this hotel lobby.

"A talking bird?!" he exclaimed to Newsday this past week. "That's silly!"

Anyhoo, a few parting thoughts from the meetings:

Forget any Johnny Damon for Joe Crede talk out there. The Yankees have every intention of using Damon as their everyday leadoff hitter and leftfielder in 2008. New manager Joe Girardi very much wants this to happen, and it works for Brian Cashman, too. It'll happen.
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So what does this mean for Hideki Matsui? It means he'll get more at-bats at designated hitter. And what does that mean for Jason Giambi? It means he might get more time at first base.

In an ideal world, the Yankees would trade either Matsui or Giambi, to clear up the roster for more versatile players. But that's unlikely to happen. Both have full, no-trade clauses, and both love playing for the Yankees. Matsui has two more years on his contract, while Giambi is finally on the last year of that infamous, seven-year, $120-million deal. In all probability, Damon, Giambi and Matsui will all be 2008 Yankees. You can count on Giambi and Matsui, at the least, to spend time on the disabled list.

So let's enter that ideal world, pretend we're fantasy-league owners with no concerns about no-trade clauses and salaries, and refine the Yankees' roster. For me, it'd be a no-brainer: Trade Giambi. That would clear up the DH role as a resting spot for everyone, from Matsui to Damon to Bobby Abreu to Jorge Posada (assuming he re-signs).

But I know Giambi has his fans out there, and Damon and Matsui their detractors. What would you do to clear up this roster logjam?

The general managers supported a proposal, 25-5, to introduce instant replay for home run calls - fair/foul, potential fan interference and balls that might have landed as homers and then bounced back into play.

To quote Brian Cashman, "It's time. We need to catch up." Really, it's a black mark on baseball that it has taken this long to get this far. And this isn't really that far. There's virtually no chance that this will happen in time for the 2008 season, and this could all lead to absolutely nothing.

I don't buy Bud Selig's argument that replay would take up more time in baseball games' already lagging pace. Managers and umpires already slow things down when they argue these tough calls, as do umpiring teams when they consult on the field in an effort to get the calls right. So instead of these primitive uses of time, we'd instead get an official looking at the replays, in an area away from the ballpark, and making the right call.

Is there anyone out there who doesn't want replay in baseball?

Say hello to Carlos Silva. He's going to be a very rich man soon.

Silva is poised to become this year's Jeff Suppan, or Gil Meche. Also throw Kyle Lohse in this small group with Silva. So when the Mets meet with Scott Boras here at the general managers' meetings, today or tomorrow, they can discuss Lohse as well as the longshot possibility of acquiring Alex Rodriguez.

Silva just changed agents, from the affable Peter Greenberg to the affable Barry Praver and Scott Shapiro (believe it or not, not every agent is affable, despite what popular culture tells us). Praver and Shapiro are here, as well, and will meet with the Mets as soon as today.

Look at Silva's numbers. He's a durability guy - 180 innings pitched or more each of the last four seasons. He's built like a horse - 6-foot-4, 245 pounds.

Is he just what the Mets need? Their first choice would be an ace like this guy, but those pitchers are quite difficult to acquire. The Mets want innings-eaters so that their bullpen doesn't fall apart from exhaustion. Silva averaged six-plus innings per start in the American League.

What do you think, Mets fans? Does this guy interest you? Be realistic now. Santana, Roy Oswalt, Josh Beckett and a young Tom Seaver aren't walking through that door (scroll down to May 8, 1997 if you don't know this reference).

Greetings from Orlando, where I'll be situated all week at the general managers' meetings. These are traditionally viewed as the kickoff to the Hot Stove League. There probably won't be a lot of business transacted this week, but the foundation will be established for deals that will be completed weeks or months from now.

There will be many an introduction made at these meetings, with myriad newcomers and veterans in new places. Since last year's GM meetings, an incredible eight teams have revamped their front offices. In the American League, you have Baltimore (new president Andy MacPhail is running things), the Angels (GM Tony Reagins replaces the retired Bill Stoneman) and Minnesota (GM Bill Smith replaces the retired Terry Ryan). In the National League, you have Atlanta (GM Frank Wren replaces the promoted John Schuerholz), Florida (GM Michael Hill replaces the promoted Larry Beinfest), Houston (Ed Wade replaces the fired Tim Purpura), Pittsburgh (Neal Huntington replaces the fired Dave Littlefield) and St. Louis (John Mozielak replaces the fired Walt Jocketty).

If I were doing a list of the Top 10 GMs a year ago, it would have been topped by Schuerholz (pictured above) and also featured Ryan, Jocketty and Stoneman. So it makes sense to do a Top 10 now, given the new landscape.

Here is the opinion of one person:

1. Pat Gillick, Philadelphia. Perhaps his batting average isn't as strong as it once was, as he heads into what he says will be his final year, but he deserves the top spot simply because of career achievement _ having built the Blue Jays from an expansion club to two-time World Series champs and retooled the Orioles, Blue Jays and Phillies into playoff clubs. The Adam Eaton and Freddy Garcia acquisitions were stinkers, but Gillick traded Jim Thome for Aaron Rowand two years ago, which opened up an everyday job for Ryan Howard. And the Phillies wouldn't have edged the Mets if not for the arrivals of Kyle Lohse and J.C. Romero.

2. Billy Beane, Oakland. He looked less smart in 2007, and '08 could be tough, too, as the A's build with their new stadium in mind. Nevertheless, Beane has revolutionized the industry by getting the most out of miniscule payrolls _ and publicizing his beliefs. Remember that ace Danny Haren arrived from St. Louis for a fading Mark Mulder.

3. Mark Shapiro, Cleveland. If you take the time to inspect how Shapiro built this year's AL Central champs, you'll see the textbook approach to rebilding and retaining. Shapiro made some amazing trades (the Bartolo Colon deal with Omar Minaya's Expos and the Travis Hafner deal with Texas) and exhibited patience with homegrown players like Fausto Carmona and Jhonny Peralta, both of whom were procured by Shapiro's predecessor John Hart.

4. Kevin Towers, San Diego. Like his pal Beane, Towers consistently takes a low-end payroll and produces contenders. Towers' gift is bullpen construction; in last year's masterpiece, he took Heath "Norfolk Shuttle" Bell off the Mets' hands, and the next thing you knew, Bell was setting up for Trevor Hoffman.

5. Theo Epstein, Boston. The least experienced GM on this list, and he'll always have his short-lived Boston departure _ featuring the Gorilla Suit Escape _ on his resume. Nevertheless, with two World Series rings, Epstein ties Gillick for second place (behind Brian Cashman's three) among active GMs. Epstein has made four phenomenal moves, in particular, that place him this high: 1) The original signing of David Ortiz in January 2003; 2) The Curt Schilling trade in November 2003 (check out this letter that Epstein and the other Red Sox big-wigs wrote to Schilling, in trying to persuade Schilling to waive his no-trade clause); 3) The trade of Nomar Garciaparra in July 2004; and 4) The signing of Hideki Okajima in November 2006. Moreover, Epstein has backed his vow to turn the Sox into a "player development machine."

6. Doug Melvin, Milwaukee. Melvin has done nice work with two teams (Rangers and Brewers), making them far better than when he arrived. The Brewers have drafted tremendously well under his watch, and Melvin enjoys selling high on players, like Dan Kolb and Scott Podsednik, who turn out not to have long-lasting success.

7. Dave Dombrowski, Detroit. He has essentially taken over two expansion teams _ the 1993 Marlins and the 2002 Tigers (who were run into the ground by Dombrowski's predecessor Randy Smith) _ and brought both of them to the World Series with a mixture of player development, trades and smart, high-impact free-agent signings. He also possesses the humility to hire a great, larger-than-life manager like Jim Leyland and let him do his thing.

8. Brian Cashman, Yankees. The hardest one to evaluate. He has been the Yankees' general manager for 10 years, yet he has been a "real GM" for only two and a half. So what do we do about the first seven and a half years? Ignore them fully? Figure out which moves Cashman made and which he didn't? That has been done, to some extent. In any case, Cashman has a clear vision for retooling the Yankees, and so far, it has worked pretty well. Now we'll see how his most important decision works out, and what he'll do about third base.

9. Omar Minaya, Mets. He deserves as much blame as anyone for the team's historic collapse. Yet let's not forget all of the good work that Minaya did in making the Mets relevant again. Even if it was just a matter of smooth-talking the Wilpons into spending huge dollars on Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran, that is a skill that has served the Mets and their fans quite well. This is a crucial offseason for Minaya.

10. Ken Williams, White Sox. One of the most aggressive GMs in baseball, Williams won my 2007 AL Kevin Malone Award for his poor performance in constructing this past season's White Sox. Nevertheless, Williams' resume, highlighted by putting together the 2005 World Series champions, merits inclusion on this list.

"Who do you root for?" people often ask me, and I usually respond the same way: "I root for great stories."

What has transpired in the Bronx so far, since the 2007 Yankees' season ended with a first-round playoff loss to Cleveland, qualifies as a spectacular succession of stories.

Joe Torre out, Joe Girardi in? That woudln't have been a shocker, if you had predicted that a month ago. But Torre and Don Mattingly reuniting in Los Angeles? And Alex Rodriguez opting out before the Yankees even presented an offer? Those, you couldn't have seen coming.

I admittedly am happy for Torre, that he'll get to write another chapter in his legacy. The Yankees will be better off without him, as I previously opined, but I can't think of a better fit for him than the Dodgers. They needed a manager who can command respect just by entering a clubhouse (check), and who can energize the local fan base (check). Joe has talent young and old, and ownership group completely smitten with him. The NL West is extremely competitive, but there's no reason why the Dodgers can't be in the middle of the race. I bet the switch energizes Torre, and he embraces the challenge of developing those young players.

It's going to be equally fascinating in the Bronx, as we saw just yesterday, at Girardi's introductory news conference. There are going to be many more secrets staying contained in the Bronx. Whereas Torre believed in feeding the media beast with nuggets of information and massive hints, Girardi will retain nearly everything, in order to maintain every competitive advantage. This speaks to a greater difference in their approaches to work: Relaxed versus intense. Torre almost never let things faze him, a skill that came in handy during many an ownership-fueled crisis. We'll see how Girardi fares in this area.

Now, granted, we're talking different leagues _ and we're acknowledging fully that managers can have only so much impact _ but which team do you think will win more games over the next three seasons? Which manager will be viewed as more of a success by their respective new employer?

I'll bet on the Yankees winning more games than the Dodgers from 2008 through 2010, and yet, I'll say that Girardi is more likely than Torre to completely crash and burn.

If you read this story in Monday's New York Times, concerning Alex Rodriguez's decision to opt out of his contract, you saw this kicker quote by the Yankees' new Mouth of the South (as in Tampa), Hank Steinbrenner:

“Does he want to go into the Hall of Fame as a Yankee,” Steinbrenner said, “or a Toledo Mud Hen?”

Well, Newsday has learned that A-Rod now has the opportunity to be a Mud Hen - for a substantive raise, to boot.

Jason Griffin, the Mud Hens' clever director of public relations and broadcaster, pounced on the PR opportunity that fell into his lap here. On Wednesday, Griffin sent to Scott Boras, A-Rod's well-known agent, the following items:

1) The Photoshopped Hall of Fame plaque, above, which features A-Rod with the distinguished Mud Hens' "T" (that's Muddy who interlocks with the T);
2) A couple of Mud Hens hats;
3) This offer stated in this letter:

Dear Mr. Boras,

Jason D. Griffin
Director, Public Relations/Broadcaster
Toledo Mud Hens Baseball, Inc.

Knowing Boras, he'll shop that offer and see if he can beat it. Stay tuned.

CORRECTION: This wasn't such an intergalactic exclusive, after all. The Detroit Free Press reported it today. Sorry.