What a perfect juxtaposition last night, with Johan Santana and Phil Hughes pitching about 10 miles apart from one another.
Santana pitched adequately in picking up a no-decision against the Pirates, in a game the Mets won, 5-4, in 11 innings. I attended this game, and Santana worked hard, throwing 114 pitches over a season-low 5 2/3 innings. He mentioned the cold weather as a deterrent. He also mentioned that the Mets' scouting report indicated that Nate McLouth, who homered in the first, was supposed to take a few pitches, and that he got a few bad calls on the at-bat that produced Jason Bay's fifth-inning homer.
Over in the Bronx, meanwhile, Phil Hughes pitched horribly in losing to the Tigers, and from reading colleague Anthony Rieber's story, it sounds like Hughes' next start could be for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barres.
Does this mean that Yankees GM Brian Cashman goofed, when he passed up the opportunity to deal Hughes for Santana? In my humble opinion, it is way too early to make such a judgment.
It's hardly a shocker that Santana is posting a vastly superior 2008 to Hughes. Cashman's commitment to Hughes, Ian Kennedy and the rest of the organization's youngsters is about anything but 2008. It's about the hope of building the proverbial "player development machine," so that they don't have to overspend on the free-agent market to fill needs. The possibility that Hughes and Kennedy would need minor-league time was part of that commitment. If the Yankees don't make the playoffs in 2008, so be it. Cashman will sleep well, even if the decision costs him his job.
As stated here back when the Mets made the Santana trade, Omar Minaya performed an excellent job in waiting for the Twins to settle for what still looks like an uninspiring package of players. Have you seen Carlos Gomez's numbers? Yeesh. As you can see here, Kevin Mulvey is pitching decently for Triple-A Rochester, while Phil Humber is not. Deolis Guerra is pitching all right at Class A Fort Myers.
But you can bet that Minaya, who is set to ignore baseball's slotting system for the amateur draft after adhering to it the last couple of years, wants to build his organization to a point where it doesn't have to invest nine figures in a pitcher from another team in order to pick up an ace.
I think that the Santana trade will allow the Mets to close Shea Stadium with their first World Series title since 1986. Yet that high will last for only so long. In 2005, Red Sox fans, fresh off the first title in almost all of their lifetimes, resorting to booing 2004 heroes like Keith Foulke and Kevin Millar. Now the Red Sox, thanks to a strong farm system, are set to make a strong run every year, thanks to their commitment to player development, which includes patience. Last year, Dustin Pedroia hit .182 in April. The Sox stuck with him, and he proceeded to win the AL Rookie of the Year award.
If Hughes ultimately bombs, then sure, you can fault Cashman for not dealing him. But we need much more time here. If Hughes re-discovers himself in the minors, comes back and pitches like the guy who beat the Indians last October, then all will be well. And let's make sure that Santana justifies the Mets' long-term investment in him, beyond just this year and even next year and 2010.
Yankees fans, if you buy into the notion that it's all right to miss the playoffs once in a great while, like the defending champion Red Sox did in 2006, then you'll make it through this season.
Comments (22)
Will Posada's injury make it more likely that both Kennedy and Hughes return to AAA a.s.a.p.? Is he an excellent handler of young pitchers or is he a veteran's kind of guy?
Stating the obvious, one needs to exhibit patience with these young pitchers. They both showed enough talent last season to continue to generate enthusiasm. A temporary return to the minors would probably be a positive for them. If this happens, who would be the candidates to take their turn in the rotation??
Hey Ken, Johan Santana has already given up 7 Home runs this year. The last 5 years Santana has given up 17,24,22,24 and 33 last year. Is that a cause for concern for the Mets?
Well, anyone who expected Hughes to out-pitch Santana in '08 is mentally deranged. Hughes is the youngest pitcher in baseball at 21. Santana is one of the top-five pitchers in the game.
I wouldn't say Santana pitched adequately. I thought he was pretty horrible, considering 1) he's their ace and he couldn't even go six; 2) they had to eventually burn out the bullpen, and 3) he was facing a bad offensive team in the lowly Pirates. I'm not saying that every ace doesn't have games like this, but "adequate" for aces and "adequate" for everyone else is different.
Santana has had a good year, but not a great one so far. I really thought he was going to come to the NL and simply dominate -- in a Pedro-in-his-prime kind of way. But it's not there. The fact that he's not utterly dominating these weak NL lineups tells me his stuff is more diminished than we knew. Even the post-velocity Pedro came to the NL and dominated. Why is Santana not doing the same? (He's a second-half pitcher and always has been, so maybe that has something to do with it.)
It's also not fair to simply make the case that Hughes is the reason the Yankees didn't get Santana. Money had just as much to do with it. They didn't want to take on that 20 million dollars a year.
I think the grace period is officially over with Girardi. Having his young, struggling starter throw to a guy he never met before was just absolutely dumb and contributed to the loss. Stewart called a horrible game and he got crossed up with Hughes multiple times. Hughes also had to deal with Johnny Damon playing center (Girardi "resting" his hottest hitter, who happens to be 24), whose lack of range and arm cost them two runs in the first, and seemingly sealed his fate right there.
And, Ken, tough loss for your Jays last night. Oh, man. Halladay goes the distance AGAIN and takes the loss. Rarely have you seen a man more angry than Halladay last night after he gives up a linedrive single to Youk and Wells bobbles the ball in center, failing to even attempt a throw at the cement-footed Papi, who came in to score. Halladay, in a rage, clearly screamed "You gotta me f---ing kidding me!" I can't say I blame him.
I'm very curious to see what might happen if the Yanks miss the playoffs this year, which is looking a bit more likely each day. Would ownership swing the ax (Cashman, Girardi) or craft a story about how "player development," "transition" and "investment for the future" were all part of the plan? Or maybe they'd just blame injuries, a certain Ortiz jersey, the election, or the Pope. Wait, I know: Sorry Yankees fans, we didn't win because we didn't have enough money to attract the best players because our ticket prices were too low. The new stadium should solve that one.
And by the way, with all the stuff that's going on, I still fully expect Joba to take a spot in the rotation within six weeks after the All-Star break.
Jon, the Yankees were 10.5 games back on July 7th last year and made the playoffs. So I wouldn't start talking about what's "likely" just yet. A hot end to the year propelled the Rockies into the playoffs and then into the World Series. It's a long season.
They don't need to "craft" a story about transition and development -- it's out there already. It's been repeated sixteen billion times by Hank and Cashman.
Giardi won't be fired. Cashman won't either, but I wouldn't be surprised if he walked away.
Once the Yankees start clicking offensively, they will start winning a little more consistently. More hitting will hide some of the pitching flaws. Hughes and Kennedy are talented, they just need more time (perhaps in the minors). There is little doubt that other organizations covet them. In New York, fans like me expect them to start winning immediately, however ludicrous that is. I do question having both of them in the rotation from the get-go, but that is water under the bridge.
I am happy the Yankees didn't trade away the future to get Santana and then commit to paying him more than a hundred million dollars. I do think Cashman blew it with Wang, who wanted to sign a longterm deal for a reasonable amount. Now, he will get much more at the end of the season. Sort of reminds me of what they did with Jeter and Mo early in their careers, before coughing it up. They paid much more than they had to.
I am willing to bet that before the year is over, both Hughes and Kennedy will be winning. If these guys can make it, missing the playoffs for the first time in more than a decade could very well be a small price to pay. If they miss the playoffs and the kids bomb out, then Cashman will be gone - and rightly so.
There is no way Girardi will be fired and he shouldn't be. Cashman won't be fired. He may be forced out at the end of the year ala Torre or walk away (although I doubt that because the Yankees pay too well and he has a budget other GMs can only drool over). If the kids pan out and the Yankees stay competitive, I would bet on Cashman getting a new 3 year deal.
Bailey, Santana has a career ERA of 4.07 in April, with a 1.22 WHIP. Same stellar strikeout numbers but April and May are his weakest months and it isn't particularly close.
Hell, he won--and deserved--the Cy in 2004 and that was after a 5.40 April and 5.79 May. He's a slow starter and it's way too early to start questioning his stuff. The homer tendency is starting to look like a legitimate issue but even so...too soon to worry, especially with his other numbers looking so pretty.
Josh, I guess you missed the part where I wrote "He's a second-half pitcher and always has been, so maybe that has something to do with it."
OK, catching up. Thanks as always for the comments:
rmt, while Posada's handling of pitchers has improved over the years, I still don't think he's near the elite when it comes to this. So I don't think this would be a factor in the demotions of Hughes and Kennedy.
Steve, the candidates to replace Hughes and Kennedy are Darrell Rasner and Kei Igawa. Rasner showed last year that he can be a capable, short-term sixth starter. And as I've stated before, I am the last man standing (at least in the non-Brian Cashman department) on the Igawa bandwagon.
Dennis and baileywalk: Santana allowed just two hits last night, both solo homers. Agreed, baileywalk, you want your ace to go more than 5.2 IP, particularly against the Pirates. But what are you gonna do? He's not going to give you a gem every time out. He was undoubtedly affected by the cold; remember, he got to pitch his home games in the Metrodome all of these years. I'm comfortable with "adequate."
In his first March/April in the NL, Santana went 3-2, 3.12, 40.1 IP, 29 H, 14 ER, 7 HR, 8 BB, 39 K. In his first March/April back in the NL, in 2005, Pedro went 2-1, 2.75, 36 IP, 18 H, 11 ER, 1 HR, 6 BB, 46 K. So fair point on your part. But, as you wrote - and as Josh wrote that you didn't write ;) - and as I wrote in today's Newsday, for that matter, Santana is historically a better second-half pitcher.
baileywalk, didn't see the Jays game because I was at Shea, but yeah, not good. At least they were defeated by the team I predicted would win the AL East.
Agreed also that Girardi shouldn't have started Stewart and should've started Melky.
I don't think we can predict whether Cashman will be fired. We just don't have enough Hank Steinbrenner history go to on, yet.
Ken -
Have you seen the debacle over at Shea today? You really think the "Amazins" are going to the WS over the Diamondbacks? The only thing that will be "Amazin" to me is if Willie makes it to the All Star break.
The Mets are getting pounded by the Pirates and Darling and Cohen are taking calls in the booth. The world has gone mad.
J-Rock, if Willie gets fired by the All-Star break, then I'll pay for your wedding.*
*Not really.
Hate to say it, but Cashman not following through on the Santana trade will be his downfall with the Yankees when he doesn't get an extenstion after the season.
For the record, I also think it was the right move not to trade Hughes, Melky, and other prospects away and believe when it's all said and done Hughes will develop into a top of the rotation starter. It just won't happen this season and Hank won't have patience.
I do wonder though what having Santana-Wang-Pettitte in the rotation with Joba and Mariano and the offense living up to its potential would mean for this season. I think they defintiely would've made the playoffs and had their best chance since 2004 of winning #27.
Anyway, it's probably for the best of the future of the franchise to take a step back in order to take two steps forward, a la 2006 Red Sox.
Ken, all the talk has been about the Yankees pitching, especially the starters struggling. Hudges and Kennedy have been trrible. But how about the Yankees offense taking some blame? Right Now the Yankees are hitting like garbage. Granted not having A-Rod and Posada right now is hurting them. The starters almost have to pitch shutout ball because the offense is hitting like garbage. No one is hitting at all.
No question, Dennis, the offense was supposed to provide cover for the developing pitchers, and that hasn't happened.
Besides the young pitchers struggling and the offense sputtering, isn't part of reason why the Yankees are where they are is the guys Cashman and others brought in in recent years and failed miserably. Kei Igawa. Carl Pavano. Jaret Wright. Javier Vasquez. Jeff Weaver. Jose Contreras. If half of those did what they were expected to do, the Yankees would be sitting in the catbird seat. It is a long season and the Yankees have gotten off to poor starts in recent seasons to make the post season. Cashman has struck gold with some minor deals as Shawn Chacon and Aaron Small. Roger Clemens did give them a lift last year at an expensive price.
I would have included one of these young pitchers in a deal last season to get Santana. Most highly-touted young starters in recent years have failed: Todd van Poppel. Paul Wilson. Ryan Anderson. Steve Avery. Rick Ankiel. But that bridge has sailed and building a young, cheap, talented staff isn't a bad second option.
Jim, you MUST be kidding. Scott Kazmir, Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Justin Verlander, Feliz Hernandez, Clay Buchholz -- that's just a few names of young pitchers who were highly touted and succeed. There have been many lately. The best you could do to say young pitchers fail is bring up Todd van Poppel and a lefty who had a mental breakdown on the mound?
Some pitchers fail and some succeed, but this argument against young pitchers (that many make) -- as if they never work out -- is simply ridiculous.
Here is a list of pitchers rated #1 thru #5 in "Baseball America" since 1990, available on their website in their Top 100 prospects
!990: 1) Steve Avery
2) Ben McDonald
1991 1) Todd van Poppell
5) Roger Salkeld
1992 1)Brien Taylor
2) van Poppel
3) Salkeld
1993 2) Taylor
1996 2) Paul Wilson
5) Alan Benes
1997 3)Kerry Wood
4) Matt White
1998 4) Wood
1999 2) Rick Ankiel
4) Bruce Chen
5) Brad Penny
2000 1) Ankiel
2001 3) Josh Beckett
4) Jon Rauch
5) Ben Sheets
2002 1) Beckett
2) Mark Prior
2003 5) Jesse Foppert
2004 4) Edwin Jackson
18 names on that list. How many of them can you say had very good/great careers? Beckett, definitely yes. Brad Penny has been pretty good after having health problems. Avery had a couple of great years. Ben Sheets is good WHEN healthy.
If you go farther down the list (I left it at 5 to get a "creme de la creme" feel) you can find a Pedro Martinez and a Scott Kazmir. But you can find just as easily a Kris Benson, Allen Watson, Carl Pavano (what kind of contract will he sign in the winter?) or a Tyrone Hill.
Certainly all pitchers start out as prospects and some do succeed. But out of 18 in a fifteen year period shouldn't you get a few more stars than just Josh Beckett??
I never said the Yankee strategy of young pitchers would not work. I said it "isn't a bad second option". That is praise. But Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner had a better option (in my opinion) and didn't take it. As Davidoff says it will take years to
evaluate Santana vs Hughes debate. Remember in 1985 Portland Trail Blazer fans were bragging they selected Sam Bowie instead of the injured Michael Jordan.
I listened to Mike and the Mad Dog yesterday for less than 10 minutes - since that is all I can take. During that brief time Francesa repeatedly stated that he thought the Yankees should have traded the young players for Santana and that the "old Steinbrenner" would have pulled the trigger. He said the Yankees made a mistake. Russo encouraged this notion and added that the Yankees should leave Hughes in the rotation even if he never wins a game.
I disagree with both. I have a feeling the Yankees are going to look good with what they did as the years pass and that the Mets are going to look too generous. Santana is a great pitcher but whether he will still be great at the end of the contract is another question that can't be answered now. The Yankees are positioned financially to make runs at several top players in the off-season. Plus, these kids might just turn into something special. I'm willing to wait.
The infamous Mike and The Mad Dog are your protptypical fair weather fans. If a player or team is "hot", they jump right on the bandwagon. If a player or team is "down:, they bury them. IF it ever happened that Santana failed miserably and Hughes, going forward, became a top pitcher, Francesa would take full credit for calling this the right way. The word I am searching for is "useless".
Ken -
Two quick comments...well, three..
a) Willie is gone by Memorial Day....the millionaires need a messsage.
b) Cashman is in trouble too...Darrell Rasner sounds like the name of a nasty HS guidance counselor.
c) Mark Jackson as head coach of the Knicks...? Stop....my stomach just herniated....