1. The Mets will take two of three over the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park. Jose Reyes, liberated to act like his old self again, will hit three triples, steal five bases and instigate a brawl with Miguel Olivo.
2. The Yankees will win two of three against the Orioles in Baltimore, even though Joe Girardi, scarred by his Manny Ramirez experiences, will overcompensate by intentionally walking Jay Payton with a base open.
3. After Yankees fans object to LaTroy Hawkins wearing Roger Clemens' uniform number 22, Hawkins will encounter similar grief for trying 17 ("How dare you do that to Mickey Rivers!?"), 29 ("We love Mike Stanton!"), 36 ("Does Mike Myers mean nothing to you?!") and 38 ("Chase Wright is The Man!") before settling on 41. "That's OK," the fans will say, "we hated Randy Johnson."
4. David Ortiz will finally figure out why he's in such a slump, as the Red Sox will confess that they've secretly replaced his usual coffee with Folger's Crystals.
5. OK, now here's your question, substituting for a fifth prediction: Do any of you care about the length of the Yankees-Red Sox games? People in the media enjoy complaining about it, and look, full disclosure, a tidy, 2-hour, 45-minute game makes my life easier. But I don't mind the 4-hour games terribly. What do you, the customers, think?
Comments (31)
I LOVE 4-Hour games and just because it makes Michael Kay miserable. (I like him but find it funny he cant stand it) Last night I was so upset I didn't have the baseball package so I couldn't watch that Rockies/Padres game. 4 hour games are fun.
I HATE 4 hour games. Why can Oakland play Seattle in Oakland, have a 8 to 1 score, have 4 pitching changes, and finish in 2 hours 22 minutes? And a Boston-Yankee game drag on for 4 hours. 4 hour games are boring. I guess that is why I never watch an entire 9 inning Yankee game anymore.
Finally, some love for "One More Saturday Night," a guilty pleasure of mine for 20 years now. If anyone wants to borrow a VHS copy of it or 3, just let me know.
I am sure that the Yankee personnel involved in concessions sales love four hour games.
Prediction: Kyle Farnsworth will now try to hit every batter he faces. His total lack of control will work in his favor, as he accidentally begins to throw strikes on a regular basis. (He also starts trying to breathe through his eyelids).
Ken...Mazel Tov...I dont mind the 4 + hours Yankee/RedSox games...but unfortunately for children, it's way past their bedtime by the 5th inning.
1. Four hour-plus games are ridiculous. Too long. Baseball, by its nature, is much more pedestrian than many sports, but 4 hour games are over the top. They don't do anything to make it more popular with our youth.
2. I'm not so sure that Farnsworth was trying to buzz Ramirez. If he could spot his pitches that well he wouldn't stink.
3. I'm still in favor of moving Joba into the rotation.
4. Mussina is pretty much through. His velocity just isn't there. I can't see how they can keep starting him when he gets pounded. I know he has a win, but he is extremely unreliable and with two young kids in the rotation who always have the potential of getting bombed, risking a 3 inning performance by Mussina will fry the bullpen by July 4. I don't trust Mussina as a reliever either.
5. Where does Manny go next year?
6. How fun in the sun!
Manny goes to Boston next year and 2010, Jim. Sawx have a pair of $20 million team options. They'll string him along and make him sing for his supper. It's an ideal scenario for them.
Ken, agreed on Manny. Boston wouldn't be able to replace his production. People are foolish to believe he will be playing elsewhere next year.
Will Mark Teixeira be playing 1B for the Yankees next year? He turned 28 on April 11. It would be a great pick-up.
The Teixeira issue is interesting, Jim. He'll be in good shape with possible bidding from both NY teams.
It would make plenty of sense for the Yankees - take on a huge contract, but for a player in his prime, and after Giambi and Abreu (and Mussina, Pavano, Farnsworth and possibly Pettitte) come off the books this year, Damon and Matsui will come off the books next year. It would eliminate the headache category that first base has become pretty much since Tino left after '01.
Intentionally walking Jay Payton might not be that bad an idea, after all.
Ken,
You sure have taken some nice vacations recently. Have you considered a return to Tokyo? Maybe Dave Lennon could clue you in on the healthier places to eat.
Hey, why not the Orioles and Teixeira? KC GM Dayton Moore's model of rebuilding around one or two big free agent signings (i.e., Gil Meche) and how the Indians turned things around a few years ago are examples that you don't have to do it ALL with draft picks and trading for minor leaguers.
And the added bonus is that Teixeira is from Baltimore (but not from the high school that shall not be named), so he could help revive some fan interest, no?
Then again, what do I know? Leiter?
How about a Mets sweep!
M-Crash, do you think MacPhail would endorse the Teixeira signing? Just knowing his methodology, I'm not sure if he'll want to go all out on such an acquisition when the team will probably still be pretty bad next year.
Thank you for not mentioning the high school.
Ken - ANOTHER vacation? Geez, this better mean you're springing for the Extra Innings package when you return!
Seriously though, do the Mets need to win every game for the rest of the year to stop the incessant talk about the choke of '07 and how HORRIBLE Reyes was in September? While both may be true, the Mets lost the division SOLELY because the pitching was bad. And you can *almost* boil it down to five INNINGS...if any one of these innings have a different bounce here and there, the stumbling, bumbling, choking Mets have a play-in game and who knows what happens...
9/16: 5th inning Mota/Sosa
9/18: 5th inning Maine
9/25: 1st inning Glavine
9/26: 5th inning Humber
9/30: 1st inning Glavine
Special Reyes bonus: in the 9/25 game the Mets were losing 10-3 going into the bottom of the 9th and those lying down, choking dogs scored six runs. In the middle of the rally, Reyes hit a three run homer. (his second HR of the night)
Clearly the Mets had some issues last September, and Glavine left a real bad taste in our mouths, but the non-stop "will they ever get over it" psychoanalyzing is getting old fast.
And before I get killed by everyone on this board, please rehash the detailed play by plays at:
www.baseball-reference.com/teams/NYM/2007_sched.shtml
JoeNunz, I agree that the pitching was the primary scapegoat, but when you're talking about the Mets falling one game short out of 162, and thinking about the many, many ways that they failed to win at least that one more game (to force a playoff with the Phillies), I don't think it's unreasonable to point to Reyes' awful September.
Ken,
I agree with you on Reyes. That was brutal and shouldn't be forgotten until he comes through at crunch time. If Soriano and A-Rod and Barry Bonds, etc, were subject to "choker" scrutiny, with much better resumes' than Reyes, he shouldn't be immune to questions.
As for MacPhail, are you implying he is cheaper than Derek Jeter or Paul O'Neill? Speaking of that cry baby, no comment on my comment in response to the comments about your comment on the fans' commentary regarding the Hawkins--O'Neill numerology brouhaha?
At what point does a person start questioning Brian Casman's pitching plan for this season? Relying on two rookie pitchers, while noble, looks increasingly foolish. Hughes had a nice Sept 2007, but he looks incredibly shaky. Kennedy looks over his head, too. They both could use some time in the minors to get their acts together. They both throw far too many pitches. In fact, Kennedy threw 85 pitches in 2.2 innings on Saturday. Having two rookies in the rotation along with a just-about washed up Mike Mussina is stunning. While I did not want to obtain Santana, I do think Cashman should have been able to land one or two veteran starters that could go to the mound every 5 days and provide a halfway decent performance. I'm not looking for greatness, just a chance to win a game.
M-Crash:
"Choker scrutiny" NEVER has any backup! It is based on who people like/don't like, who makes more money or other non-baseball related reasons.
When Reyes isn't playing well his "antics" are a problem, when he is playing well he's "full of energy"
When A-Rod has a HORRIBLE series againt the Tigers, he choked...the rest of the team that stunk faced good pitching.
Nobody, nobody, nobody called out Jeter for his terrible performance against the Indians last year.
Heilman must go! He can't handle the pressure! Oh wait, he had a good game against the Phillies? He must have seen Dr. Melfi before the game who taught him to not choke.
Geez, can the fans and the writers...especially the latter (and Ken is generally excluded from the criticism)...can we get beyond this psychoanalytical babble and talk about baseball performance!
Jim, re: Cashman, I think that you have to either accept or reject his vision, and if you accept it, you have to accept everything about it. He clearly views this year as a transition/growing pains year. He wants the kids to work without looking over their shoulders, and he wanted to try and get something out of Mussina in the last year of his contract (a failure so far, obviously). IMHO, signing a veteran starting pitcher _ whom did you have in mind? Lohse? _ would have blocked the way of the youngsters.
JoeNunz, I'm curious: What about a guy like Armando Benitez? Do you think that he doesn't choke in big moments? How about Kyle Farnsworth? I agree wholeheartedly that we place too much emphasis on the psychological stuff, but I'm not convinced that we should eliminate that 100%.
JoeNunz,
Kenny D has a point there, as he usually does, and I ain't just blowing smoke because he could banish me from this site, steal my identity and put all my 1956 Topps baseball cards in the spokes of his Schwinn 3-speed.
Seriously, it's a matter of common sense that some people react worse under pressure than others. Big league ballplayers are no different (How often do we hear players themselves say, "Hey, we're human?").
I'll never buy into the SABR view that MLB players have had to deal with so much pressure on the way up that the guys who make it are all pretty much equal in the area of stress management.
It's always relative, especially in the area of attitude.
Most of the guys who make it to the big leagues dominated on every level. It's easy to be confident when your competition is physically over-matched.
When you are in a peer group where others are just as talented, and maybe even more so, how could that not affect the way you think?
In fact, I mistyped this 7 times in a row, I was so nervous to write in the "post"season. :)
p.s. Benitez is the biggest choker of the last 20 years, bar none.
Ken - Yes, Kyle Lohse does spring to mind. A 29 year old righthander who is making a very affordable $4.25 million this year. And he is off to a good start! My problem with what Cashman is doing is that we aren't talking about an otherwise strong rotation. To have three or four solid starters and one rookie is one thing. To have a rather weak rotation with two rookies and someone like Mike Mussina who is clearly nearing the end (at the end?) is a different story.
Hughes and Kennedy has lots of potential but are they "can't miss?" I don't think so. If I remember my Yankee history correctly there have been plenty of other young pitchers that we were asked to place our faith in that never panned out. I just can't see how a team like the NYY with all of its financial resources can start a season with this type of rotation.
Hughes and Kennedy need more time in the minor leagues - at least the first half of this season. Ken, I know you respect Cashman and so do I but I am starting to wonder if both parties will be better off if they go in separate directions. My confidence in him is shaken with his decision on pitching. The NYY aren't the Twins. There is no reason for the NYY to face this quandry. The NYY have the ability to pay a veteran(s) to come in and take the pressure off the young kids while they have time to develop.
Working kids like Cabrera and Cano into the starting lineup is easy. They are just one of many in the lineup. Doing this with two rookie starting pitchers who are far from "lights out" is a completely different animal.
Now I read that Hank S. is chiming in about Joba and putting him in the starting rotation. This could be the beginning of the end for Cashman - either voluntarily or involuntarily. I don't know if that will necessarily be a good thing but it could be unfolding.
I still fully expect Joba to be a regular starter by August. This will happen as the Yanks' typical air of desparation sets in around then.
Not only that, but I also see a certain resemblance between Joba and the Babe. So I say, put a bat in his hand and let him swing away... ok, maybe next year.
Jim: Agreed that the Hank comments further solidify the likelihood that Cashman will be gone after this year.
By no means am I guaranteeing that Hughes and Kennedy will be great, or even one of them. But I like Cashman's philosophy. The world will not unravel if the Yankees fail to make the playoffs this year. If they come through stronger down the line _ if, in four years, they have a rotation comprised entirely of homegrown guys and reasonably priced veterans from other clubs _ then the sacrifice will have been worth it for the Yankees and their fans.
And I really think you have to give these guys at least a few more starts before declaring that they need more time in the minors. Remember, Hughes picked up the Yankees' only victory last October. He pitched great against Cleveland. There's obviously something there.
And, if they remain in contention, I think you'll probably get that veteran starter in Freddy Garcia.
M-Crash -
The media and the fans - especially in New York - describe every bad at bat as a choke and every triumph as clutch.
Do we REALLY know Reyes' mindset in September? Did the pressure get to him? He played lousy, no doubt about it, but what evidence do we have that is was a MENTAL failing as opposed to a physical one? We have no evidence, so the default explanation is that he wasn't mentally strong or some other such nonsense.
Reyes, was bad last September, but if the Mets had made the playoffs last year despite his performance, there would be zero talk among media and fan about his "lack of whatever"...
ps - I couldn't stand Benitez in ANY situation...
JoeNunz,
All fair points. I do think Reyes displayed more than bad statistics in September. His personality was very noticeably different as well.
You could argue that his bad on-field performance begat the bad body language, and I could argue that the sulking was a sign of weak mind and kept him in the death spiral. And you could argue that I got chocolate in your peanut butter and I could say it's poTAto, not POtato, but hey, let's call the whole thing off.
After all, Armando Benitez has finally done something positive: he's unified Kenny D's flock!!!
Rejoice!!!!!
M-
I know we'd like to keep this lighthearted, but..."I could argue that the sulking was a sign of weak mind"...REALLY?
What backup or qualifications do you have to make that statement? When did this condition manifest itself in Reyes?
On September 1? When he didn't run out ONE GROUND BALL IN July? Why didn't it affect him when he led off Game 6 of the '06 playoffs with a homer?
You proved my point...we ascribe "mental toughness" or lack thereof AFTER the fact, when we really have no idea why.
He played poorly in September...can we leave it at that and not speculate that he has a "weak mind". geez...
I'm just a big, fat blowhard buffoon who talks just to see my name and fat face in the papers. Sound a little like my dad? Fatheads.
Has anyone else noticed that Mr. T's LAD are 8-12 through the first 20 games?
JoeNunz,
If you won't even acknowledge that human behavior is influenced by state of mind, I have no idea what to say next, other than that this topic is now 1,000 percent officially boring.
Ken - Hurray up back. We need to get this blog livened up again. I am going through withdrawl without the daily debates. I guess Mussina still has some life left in that old arm. Whether he can develop any degree of consistency is another question. I still don't trust him, but was nevertheless happy he turned in 7 above average innings, although I cringed at the two HRs.
Ken - I guess you figured the Yankees would only take one game from the White Sox because you must have thought only Wang would win for us. Well, so far we've taken 2 out of 3 (and I guess a lot of us thought Moose wouldn't do the job) and are hoping for Hughes to step up tonite, if they even play.