Happy May Day. No longer can we dismiss the results of our favorite sport with the "It's only April" tag.
Just for the heck of it, let's look at where baseball stood at this very moment last year, to get a feel for what we can expect in terms of the trend/aberration percentage.
Thanks to Retrosheet (link on left), we see that these were the division leaders at the end of play on April 30, 2007:
NL East: Atlanta 16-9
NL Central: Milwaukee 16-9
NL West: Arizona 16-11
NL wild card: Mets 15-9
AL East: Boston 16-8
AL Central: Cleveland 14-8
AL West: Angels 15-11
AL wild card: Detroit and Minnesota, 14-11
So that's four of six division leaders (all three AL clubs and Arizona) that proceeded to win their divisions. Although, it should be noted, the Indians and Diamondbacks fell out of their division penthouses for extended periods before regaining their respective leads. The Phillies, whom, you might have heard, won the NL East last year, were 11-14. The Cubs, who overcame the Brewers, were 10-14.
None of the three wild cards went onto the playoffs, and the two teams that did wind up capturing the wild cards, the Rockies (10-16) and Yankees (9-14), both had losing records.
For the individual stat leaders, I called the Elias Sports Bureau, which was kind enough to provide this info. I am violating my own rules by posting traditional stats here.
Joe Mauer was the AL batting leader at .369. He finished at .293. Magglio Ordonez (.344 on April 30 - thanks to baseball-reference.com) won it with a .363.
Alex Rodriguez led the AL with 14 homers and 34 RBI, and he finished with league-leading totals of 54 and 156, respectively.
Dan Haren led the AL with a 1.60 ERA. He finished with a 3.07, third in the league behind John Lackey's 3.01 and Fausto Carmona's 3.06. Lackey had a 2.19 on April 30.
Josh Beckett led the AL with five wins, and he went onto record a league-high 20 wins.
In the NL, Derek Lee was hitting a sparkling .392. He wound up at .317. Matt Holliday (.385 on April 30) led the league at .340.
Jimmy Rollins had an NL-high nine homers, and while Mr. Team to Beat won the NL MVP award, he finished with 20 homers. Prince Fielder (six homers on April 30) topped the NL with 50.
Jeff Francoeur and Adrian Gonzalez were tied for the NL RBI lead with 25. Neither finished among the top 10, as Francoeur tallied 105 and Gonzalez 100. Holliday (19 RBI on April 30) led the NL with 137.
John Maine had the NL's best ERA, a sparkling 1.35. He finished at 3.91, well behind Cy Young Award winner Jake Peavy (2.06 in April) at 2.54.
Finally, Dontrelle Willis, of all people, had a league-leading five victories last April. He picked up just five more for the season, while Peavy (three April wins) won 19 games.
Any predictions on which teams and players can keep this up, and which can't?
UPDATE/CLARIFICATION: I want to make clear that I wasn't accusing the Yankees of fabricating Hughes' injury, which is obviously not the case. Instead, I was attempting (and failing, based on the interpretation of baileywalk and some non-commenters) to criticize the Yankees for their handling of the situation. They should've said before yesterday's game that Hughes was seeing a doctor for his rib.
Comments (15)
The deceit regarding Hughes' health is worthy of an NFL coach, not a MLB manager. If Hughes' development is so important, declare your intentions and follow through on them, don't put him at risk or lie and lose your credibility by April 30th.
As for using "dinosaur" stats, your punishment is to tell us who led in OBP and slugging as of 30th April 2007.
LOL. I didn't want to bother the Elias guy for those, Bob. He was kind enough to give me the other stuff.
Ken: I await your treatise on the "Costas Now" situation, Murray Chass vs. SABR and the blogs vs. MSM, now that you are a hybrid.
Are you a utilitarian in the tradition of John Stuart Mill (information must maximize happiness/pleasure of all) or an absolutist like Jefferson or Locke (no restrictions on infromation)?
Do you believe that more information is better (no matter the source or its juvenile tendencies or overt biases) and people are intelligent enough to synthesize it and make clear decisions?
(It gives us VORP, pitchf/x, but also Miley Cyrus and the sexcapades of Roger Clemens?)
I wouldn't say it offends me, but I would say it bothers me.
One of the issues with Girardi down here was the way he dealt with the media. That was addressed before/when he was hired and we were led to believe he'd learned his lesson. However, watching and listening to him, it's obvious he's learned nothing. His attitude stinks, and he almost comes across like a spoiled child..."Nyah nyah, I know something you don't know. Look how important I am!"
I don't think it's going to be pretty for him with the media if this keeps up. And I don't think he realizes just how much damage that can do.
I take everything a manager and/or GM says with a healthy dose of skepticism. The injury itself seems a little suspicious. If I didn't read what Hughes said, I would have thought it was an excuse to take him out of the rotation for a couple of weeks without sending him down to the minors. He then would work with Eiland on the side.
Let's go back to the Yankees and the young pitchers. My problem isn't with going with youth. I like the concept and think it could set the stage for a bright future - longterm. What I question is going with two young pitchers in the rotation to start the season. Personally, I would have liked to see Hughes in the rotation and Kennedy in the minors for the first half of the season. If we are to believe Chamberlain is destined to start before the year is over, then are we also to believe there will be three rookies in the Yankee rotation? That puts added pressure on all of them - and on the bullpen.
Ken, I have really enjoyed your newspaper articles/colums so far this year and continue to look forward to the blog and the back-and-forth banter.
Hey, what do you think of the start of my alma mater's Joe Nathan? 11g, 9 sv, 11 IP, 9 H, 11 K, 2 BB, 1 ER, 0.82 ERA, 1.00 WHIP.
Bob: Tough question, although I'm not quite sure I see the leap from VORP to Clemens' infidelities. I guess I'm in the middle. When it comes to Girardi and Cashman, I think they're unnecessarily secretive. Terry Francona, who manages the defending World Series champions, will come out and say, prior to a game, "Papelbon isn't available today." And yet the Red Sox still manage to win pretty often.
Nancy: I meant to say yesterday, great to hear from you. I'll have to start working more Giambi rips into my repertoire. ;)
Jim, I have no problem with what you're saying about two rookie starters vs. one. That's a fair criticism. I think Cashman, once again, figured, "Let's give it a shot. If we miss the playoffs, we miss the playoffs (and I move to Philadelphia/Washington/Bristol). Your boy Nathan is great, although I thought the Twins should have traded him, after dealing away Santana.
How cool would it be if Josh Hamilton won the AL batting title? He's now 4th in the league, batting .330. What a story that guy is!
Unless something is changed, this team is doomed to repeat the horrors of last year...
http://ourmetsmoments.blogspot.com/2008/05/fire-willie.html
As for information, VORP serves a purpose - comparing whether Roger Clemens is akin to Luis Polonia serves no purpose.
As for Francona, the more I learn about him, the more impressed I am. He gets the info out - it isn't a state secret that his players must tiptoe around, he handles Manny et al with aplomb...Giambi should take note - as should Jeter!
I guess you need to trust people more, Ken. Turns out Hughes is legitimately hurt. I never believed they would have him make up some crazy, detailed story just not to demote him. Second year in a row Hughes will miss months on the DL. Sigh.
baileywalk, I should've been clear up top (and I will change it): I was never doubting the sincerity of the injury. I didn't like how Girardi and Cashman, when asked before the game whether Hughes' health was a factor, said no, and then of course it was just that.
You're the second person to make this interpretation, so it's clearly my bad.
Ken, one of the things Joe Torre did great was when the Yankees were facing adversity, Torre was able to keep the team from falling apart resulting in the Yankees making the playoffs every year he manage the Yankees. That is something Joe Girardi is going to have to deal with right now. How does Girardi handle the crisis the Yankees are currently in?
Ken, I never knew Paul Giamatti was Bart's son. I loved Paul in "The Illusionist." If you haven't seen the movie, watch it. Very interesting. Good acting by Edward Norton and Jessica Biel, too. Very different.
Kennedy's line is pretty ugly tonight. 4.2 innings, 5 hits, 3 BB, 1 WP, 96 pitches, 4 ER - he gave up three doubles and a triple. I don't think there is any question that the Yankees will try and pick up Freddy Garcia. Do they have a choice? This is getting pretty bad very early in the year.
Yes it bothers me greatly that Girardi is lying about injuries and being shifty. I know it's not your job to listen to Mike and the GagDog, but I was wondering if they brought that up to him today. This type of thing is going to leave him with no reservoir of good will and can't be able to continue. He should be talked to about this. Why is he acting like Bellichick?
The biggest problem with Joe Girardi is that he's a very condescending person. He actually does think he's smarter and "better" than almost everyone he encounters (unless that person happens to be a fellow hypocritical Bible banger).
His behavior is not only hypocritical in the context of his religion's true teaching, his actions are stupid and expose him as being less intelligent than he wants everyone to believe he is.
One of the easiest ways to control what the media produces is to provide them with material. If you announce things and stay out in front of the anticipated questions, most media members will not only stop asking hard questions, they won't even think of them.
It's called feeding the beast.
It's not only smart, it's easy, and fun. It's also an obligation for a caretaker of a public trust such as the Yankees.
The news media provides so much value for the franchise and all the stakeholders, most especially the fans. Treating the industry, and by extension Yankees fans, with such open contempt is the mark of a deficient person. If he lied the same way he did about Hughes in a similar position for a publicly traded company, he might go to jail.
Say what you will about Joe Torre, but he always was courteous and respectful of the people who interviewed him, even those who didn't deserve respect. Because Torre understood he was respecting the Fourth Estate as a whole, the profession.
Girardi merely shows he's a chump and that he has more of the bad traits of Buck "Nixon" Showalter than the good ones. Is there anyone in the world who believes the Yankees held some advantage over the Tigers for the first 4 innings last night by lying about Hughes' condition?
Can we now start the countdown for the next Yankees manager? I'll bet anyone in this community that Girardi is on his rear end before the 2010 All-Star Game. He might not be a total loser in terms of wins and losses, but he is the epitome of a loser in his attitude toward other people.