M-Crash asked me this morning to check Derek Jeter's VORP, so I did. Here is his ranking among shortstops (13th overall). Here is his overall ranking (tied for 124th with J.D. Drew).
Of course, of course, it's still early, and Jeter historically hits better in the second half. He also missed a week with a quad injury. But still, are any of you alarmed by Jeter's lack of power? Wally Matthews discussed that with Jeter in his column today.
Here is the best explanation I've seen for how VORP is calculated. It's a particularly relevant stat given the Yankees' injuries. We're seeing how much their lineup is hurt by the absence of Alex Rodriguez (who led all of baseball last year with a 96.6 VORP) and Jorge Posada (who was eighth overall, and first among catchers, with a 73.4). VORP doesn't factor in defense _ for that, you need WARP, or Wins Above Replacement Player _ but right now, offense is the Yankees' problem.
Lee was so bad last year that he didn't even make Cleveland's postsesaon roster. Yet the Indians declined to sell low, figuring that starting pitching depth would serve them well. That has worked out pretty well for them, as exemplified again last night.
Can you imagine if Lee had been pitching this well for the Mets? They'd be running away with the NL East.
Comments (30)
Ken:
We have been told that steroids cause sexual dysfunction. Would this list of women stay with Roger if he was using PED's simply to partake of his charming personality?
As for Jeter - low walks, no HR's, no SB's. He is silently getting old in front of us. Playing shortstop daily does not help one age easily in baseball with rare exception. Too bad he and ARod di not switch positions at the beginning of 2007.
Bob, if you really want to go there, I think that, given Clemens' age, he has had more than enough time in his adult life to both cheat on his wife and use illegal PEDs, without the two timelines intersecting dramatically.
This is why I think all these newfangled stats are nothing but a bunch of garbage, invented by people who have too much time on their hands and a desperate need to prop up certain players while tearing down others.
This Yankee team is failing miserably with RISP -- yet Derek Jeter is hitting over .400 in these situations. Despite missing six games and having no HRs, he's one of the leaders in runs scored and RBIs. His job is to get on base and score runs...not to be a power hitter. Would I like to see more SBs from him? Sure, but with the quad injury, I'm willing to give him a pass on that right now. Because really, what's the difference between a run-scoring single with the bases loaded or a HR, other than filling a column on the back of a baseball card?
The problem with this current Yankee team is not that Posada and Rodriguez are on the DL or that Derek Jeter isn't hitting HRs -- it's that the clown who now gets off on trumpeting how he runs the show thought the only problem with last year's team was the manager and did nothing to improve the problems we had last year. This is the same team with the same issues and flaws. Putting Mr. Charm & Personality in the dugout to rant and rave about how much he hates to lose (as if anyone likes it) and remove the candy machine really doesn't change that.
It's a little painful to watch the Captain's decline. His survival appears to be a very effective way for him and the Yanks to cash in on his past greatness. But at what point does he materially hurt the Yanks' playoff contentions?
The name "Jeter" still evokes images of brilliance and grit. That's why he will always sell (until he consistently drops below .240). It's just tough to think that he will very likely not retire at the top of his game, and the big lovefest that will ensue will be the result of his best contributions of roughly 10-15 years before his last season.
Another ring, however, would change all that and further cement his legend status.
Hey Ken.
Nice to be back (work kept me away the past few weeks).
Any chance Omar lunching with Houston's people; the Mets can use Oswalt. Oh, check out the new book 'Living on the black:two pitchers...' Very interesting stories and some disturbing ones about Glavine v Randolph.
~H
Just started "Living on the Black" yesterday, Howard, and about 100 pages in. Pretty good stuff.
Nancy, just FYI, the stats community was outraged when Jeter lost out on the 2006 AL MVP to Morneau. That year, he ranked third overall in VORP and first in the AL, behind only Pujols and Ryan Howard. So it's really not personal.
Ken, It isn't personal but Derek Jeter and guys like David Eckstein are the lightning rod between the stat guys and the old school scouts. The truth is probably somehwere in the middle. However I love reading old curmudgens like Marty Noble spew against these numbers guys and the stat geeks crying about all these different stats that prove their point. Fun stuff. In the 50's they had 'Snider, Mantle or Mays', in the 00's we have batting average vs. VORP!
Ken, I didn't mean it was personal on your part...but you have to admit that there are a huge number of people using these newfangled stats (and a bunch of other stuff) to rip on Derek Jeter...most of whom became Yankee fans right around February 2004 (yet another pet peeve of mine!).
Ken, Jeter's number's from a power hitting stand point has gone down the last 3 years party because he's starting to get old. But he is still hitting like he usually does. While he doesn't hit for power, Jeter does all the little things as a hitter. Some stats are overrated.
The Mets to me are a very SOFT team. They have been playing like this since last year. Last year when the Mets were facing adversity, they collapse and crumble and allow the Phillies to win the NL East. Althought the Mets are a better team than the Phillies, the Phillies show more toughness than the Mets. The Mets have to prove that they can handle adversity. Otherwise the Mets will be sitting at home for the postseason like last year.
Clemens, like Bonds put himself in this situation. Right now he is pin to a corner
LOL on February '04 Yankees fans, Nancy. I assume you're referring to that Penn study on Jeter's defense. You watch Jeter play every day. Do you think that, at this point, he's even an average defensive shortstop? Did you not think that Gonzalez was clearly superior there, when Jeter missed the week with his quad injury?
And to reiterate, many of these "people" _ the Baseball Prospectus folks, for instance _ have immense respect for Jeter.
I am among those who think that Jeter has been overrated by some media folk. But I think that Jeter is well on his way to his day in Cooperstown.
The Penn study was a joke, to be honest. And yes, I think he's more than an average defensive SS. Is his range up the middle the greatest? No. But there are far too many things he does well, even better than most other SSs (jump throw from the hole, over the shoulder catch, charging a slow grounder), that seem to get lost or forgotten by those who either a) feel he's overrated (sorry Ken, can't agree); b) don't like him; or c) knew nothing about him or the Yankees until a certain 3B showed up in town.
Personally, I think that Derek Jeter is greatly underrated by some in the media. I also think he's become a favorite punching bag for much of the media (not you, Ken, but others), particularly in New York and nationally. He seems to get more respect in other markets than he's gotten here...and to me, that's just sad. And it'll be even sadder for said media folks in 20 years when they pull out the list of all-time Yankee leader numbers and see his name at the top of so many of them.
You know what they say...you don't know what you've got until it's gone.
We all know Jeter has lost more than a step in the field, on the basepaths and at the plate. To argue otherwise is silly. The stats don't lie. Gonzalez was an improvement in the field. No, Jeter isn't done, just not the same player he was when younger. Sure, he is headed to Cooperstown, provided he stays healthy and gets to 3,000 hits. Jeter has meant an awful lot to the team and was instrumental in all the WS titles. But all good things one day come to an end.
At least one of Clemens' "girlfriends" will apparently state she has no reason to believe he was juiced during their time together. Will that carry any weight or is only condemning "evidence" of value to the government and the media?
Bob raises a very valid point: Jeter and A-Rod should have switched positions last year. Yes, A-Rod is much bigger than he was when he last played SS, but it would have been good for both players and especially beneficial to the club. It was worth a pre-season try.
I don't blame Hank S at all for this year's team. If anyone deserves blame it is Brian Cashman. Didn't Hank want to get the best pitcher available? Cashman might yet prove to be a genius with his youth movement among pitchers. We'll see.
Melky has surprised me with his additional power. I continue to be glad the Yankees held onto him. Cano is too good of a player to keep hitting like this. Giambi is done. Yes, he will have the occasional 2-hit game, long homerun, etc., but he can't do it consistently and is below average in the field.
Ken often states the Yankees are in a transition season with the young pitchers. But last night the lineup was packed with vets and they were simply outplayed. They looked flat. The prediction of 90 wins is way too generous if the team plays many games like it did last night.
Yo Jim, No blame for Hank? Hank could have overrule Cashman and make the deal for Santana himself. Instead he show no guts indoing it. And 90 wins might be the number to get into the playoffs considering no team has stand out besides the Red Sox and Angels
Jim, some of your points boggle the mind.
Switching positions would've been good for both players and beneficial to the club? How is it good for one player to return to a position he hasn't played in years and one to move to a position he's never played?
How do you not blame Hankenstein? As he's so fond of telling everyone, he's the boss...so he certainly could've overruled Cashman if he chose to.
Yes, they were flat last night. That happens over a 162-game season. The night before, they were poised to win before Joba blew the lead. They swept the series before that. If you expect them to be perfect over a whole season and never have a game where they're flat, you're going to be very disappointed.
Ken - you have to start moderating these comments. geez!
1. BUZZ BISSINGER ALERT:
"This is why I think all these newfangled stats are nothing but a bunch of garbage, invented by people who have too much time on their hands and a desperate need to prop up certain players while tearing down others."
2. CAN YOU INSULT JETER ANY MORE THAN THIS?
"Ken, It isn't personal but Derek Jeter and guys like David Eckstein are the lightning rod between the stat guys and the old school scouts."
3. WHO CARES ABOUT PITCHING? IT'S WHETHER YOU CAN TAKE A PUNCH!
"Althought the Mets are a better team than the Phillies, the Phillies show more toughness than the Mets."
4. THE JUMP THROW IS VERY, VERY IMPORTANT...REALLY?
"But there are far too many things he does well, even better than most other SSs (jump throw from the hole, over the shoulder catch, charging a slow grounder), ..."
5. HOLY CRAP, CAN SOMEONE REALLY BELIEVE THIS??!!
"Personally, I think that Derek Jeter is greatly underrated by some in the media"
JoeNunz, are you auditioning for a staff role on firejoemorgan.com? ;)
Let's all take a deep breath. There's room here for a broad spectrum of opinions. I love the debates and back-and-forth _ and I'll challenge people here when I disagree strongly with a comment, albeit more gently than JoeNunz _ but let's try and keep it at least somewhat civil. Thanks.
Ken
Anyone catch during today's game that Derek Jeter is second in the AL in average with RISP?
Last I checked, this game was all about scoring the most runs, not who can hit the ball the farthest. Maybe those who're so worried about him not hitting any HRs should just turn off their TVs until the Home Run Derby.
So at this point in the season, it's valid to look at a stat like avg w/ RISP (how many ABs could he possibly have in those situations? 20?) but it's not valid to comment on the fact that he has only 7 extra base hits (with nary a homer) on May 7.
Looks like Jeter is actually below average in the clutch this year...ouch
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=0&season=2008
http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/wpa.shtml
NEWFANGLED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Nancy, some of your points boggle the mind. To wit:
1. Didn't Ken just the other day mention that a fellow writer said that perhaps the Yankees needed to keep first base open for either Jeter or Posada and thus not make a run a Teixeira? Why will it be OK for them to switch positions then but not for Jeter and A-Rod to have explored a switch? Baseball history is full of players switching positions.
2. If Hank Steinbrenner came in and ordered Cashman to make various trades, etc., he would have been hung by the media and plenty of fans. You're kidding with that one, right? Cashman has been a loyal and successful GM. Cashman has a plan. Cashman sold the plan to the rest of the organization. Hank is giving the plan time to work. How in the world can Hank be blamed for this season? I don't understand where you are coming from. Were you a Joe Torre supporter who is now mad at Hank for Torre's exit?
3. The point was that last night was not about a team suffering growing pains since it was a lineup filled with veterans. Maybe the team isn't that good - i.e. championship material? That's the point. Don't we all know it's a long season? Don't we all know they play 162 games? Don't we all know a team can be flat? Maybe the Yankees will never win with this bunch? What's wrong with saying that?
4. Derek Jeter has been a great player for the Yankees. One of the best probably ever. But, like all players when they get older, he isn't the player he once was. This is a fact. Facts are neither loyal nor disloyal. It's not personal. It's stating the obvious.
I hope this blog doesn't descend into mindlessness. If it does, have fun.
Jim, Hank wanted Johan Santana. Cashman told him not to do it. If Hank wanted Santana so badly, he should have done the deal himself or asked Cashman to do the deal regardless what Cashman said. That's my point. Also Hank sounds off on a lot of things that he will do, yet he does nothing.
Jim,
1. What I don't understand is this constant need by some fans to just up and move someone to another position as if it's no problem. Didn't we see what a problem that could be with the Mike Piazza experiment? I don't know how many other message boards/blogs you read, but I saw a post last week calling for Derek Jeter to start playing 1B the next night. These guys have played their positions for years and often can't play another position...and they certainly can't do it overnight. I don't see the need for either Jeter or Posada to be moved to 1B. Besides, wasn't it just last year we were moving Jeter to CF? What's next, asking him to move to the bullpen when Joba hits the rotation?
2. You're obviously a Hankenstein fan. That's your choice. I think the guy is a bumbling, loud-mouthed buffoon who doesn't have the first clue about anything except seeing his name in the newspaper. Was a Torre supporter? A huge one...but I blame his loss on Randy Levine, not Hankenstein.
3. That's exactly my point -- this team is not championship material because it's last year's team, which was not championship material. Instead of, or in addition to, worrying about who was sitting in the manager's chair, Hankenstein & Co. should've spent their time and energy fixing the flaws in the team that made them not a championship team. Unless, of course, you see LaTroy Hawkins as the solution.
4. No one is saying players don't get older. Is Posada the player he once was? Is Mo? Is Ken Griffey Jr.? It's funny how we only hear about the "decline" of Derek Jeter. It's also funny how Yankee fans turn on their own when the new flavor-of-the-month comes along. I certainly don't see legions of Bosox fans turn on Big Papi or challenge anything positive that's said about him or that he achieves.
Nancy:
1. I think it was worth a pre-season try to move the players. Yes, it was/is "out of the box" thinking. It didn't happen. I hope to never see either Jeter or Posada at first base.
2. I don't like or dislike Hank Steinbrenner. I don't think about him at all, other than to hope he supports continuing a huge payroll and giving the Yankees every chance possible to win. I prayed Torre would be excised from the Yankees. I don't blame anyone for it. I thank the good Lord. It doesn't matter if Randy Levine wanted Torre in or out. The call was ultimately the Steinbrenner family. They were weary of the Cult of Torre and so was I.
3. This is Brian Cashman's team, not Hank or Hal Steinbrenner's. Unless Ken tells me differently, I don't think Hank stopped Cashman from doing anything last winter. Hank isn't the GM. Cashman is. I haven't heard that Hank is following Angelos' lead. I wouldn't say Hank is a buffoon. He might have a big mouth, but that's a far cry from being a buffoon.
4. I'm not turning on Derek Jeter. I hope he can keep playing indefinitely. However, his VORP numbers are terrible, as Ken pointed out. Those numbers don't mean much to you, but they mean something to a lot of other people. They signify something. I'm a Jeter fan. I'm not turning on Jeter. I'm stating the obvious.
3.
Someone made the point that Jeter's job is to get on base and score runs, not drive them in...and has also pointed out Jeter's average with RISP, a statistic which speaks to run-producing ability.
If Jeter's main job is to get on base, we should be focusing on that aspect and not what he does with RISP. And coming into today, he has a .331 OBP overall, .318 when leading off an inning and .260 with the bases empty (again, that's OBP not batting average). Seems to me that Jeter is doing a terrible job setting the table thus far.
I still think Jeter is going to hit about .310/.380/.450 this year, but that doesn't mean we can't also acknowledge when he's struggling. And he's clearly off to a substandard start this season.
Nancy, you're so cute. Jeter UNDERrated. Got a good chuckle out of that. Thanks.
David, you wrote above, regarding the Mets, "Their league stinks." Were you referring to the NL East, or the NL in general. In either case, you should check out David Pinto's recent story at TSN (link below through his blog). The piece provides some interesting (albeit, early) stats that may force us to re-think the premise that the AL is clearly superior to the NL.
http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/026460.php
Sorry, meant "Ken" not "David." Your last name shouldn't have a first name in it, which confuses the easily confused among us.
Ken,
This is phenomenal!
It's phenomenal that you acted on my request!
It's phenomenal that Jeter's stats are even worse than I realized!
And it's phenomenal that you have created this kind of stir!
In a way, I admire the people on here who are so blindly loyal to Jeter that they are refusing to acknowledge the obvious.
But even more encouraging is to see legitimate Yankees fans admitting what is plain to see:
Jeter is becoming Don Mattingly right in front of our eyes, only with nowhere near the defense (please print some stats on that, too!)
Jeter might have aura, but he has very few skills left.
The biggest problem with moving him is that shortstop is the only position you can afford to have someone so weak offensively, but they cannot afford to have someone so weak defensively there either.
It's really amazing the Yankees are in this situation--and even more amazing that he is one of the highest paid players in baseball. Crazy.
JoeC, first of all, no worries on the name thing. Roughly 70% of my teachers from K through 12 called me "David." In 10th-grade French, I made my French name "David," just to mess with the teacher. If I could remember her name, I'd apologize to her right now.
Interesting post by David Pinto, whom I admire greatly. I'll be curious to see if the NL has the same advantage at season's end.
Regarding Pinto's column...
How does the NL outscoring the AL reflect league quality? Couldn't that just as likely be a reflection of the NL's worse pitching?
You might want to check out this followup by MGL. He offers some much more in-depth numbers in comments #5 & 6.
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/why_is_offense_so_much_higher_in_the_nl_so_far_this_year/
"How does the NL outscoring the AL reflect league quality."
Well, I think Pinto points out it's more than simply outscoring. But regardless of how Pinto frames the issue in the article, I take the numbers as merely reflecting that so far, in this early part of the season, the NL's offense is probably not lagging so far behind the AL's, as most people would think, and is actually outperforming the AL's offense.
"Couldn't that just as likely be a reflection of the NL's worse pitching?"
Yup, it could (it could also just be a fluke due to small sample size). Although, I think most people woule assume the NL generally has better pitching. This could be proven incorrect, but I think that's a fair assessment of most people's general assumptions.
How did we got onto Pinto and off ripping Jeter? How disappointing ...