Consider this a companion piece to this entry from last month.
In October of 2005, after the Red Sox had been swept out of the American League Division Series by the White Sox, Theo Epstein sat in a conference room with his fellow top Boston officials. Here is what Theo said, as reported in Seth Mnookin's best-selling book, "Feeding the Monster":
"What if we win 85 games [in 2006]? We're bringing up some young players that are going to be better in '07 than they will be next year. And they'll probably be even better than that in '08."
We all know what happened, right? The Red Sox won 86 games in 2006, missed the playoffs and Red Sox Nation thought their world was coming to an end. Then they won the World Series last year, and this morning, they are leading the AL East once again.
Look at the 2006 Sawx, here. Josh Beckett, in his first year on the Sox and in the AL, put up a 5.01 ERA. Jon Lester, a rookie, tallied a 4.76 ERA before being diagnosed with cancer. Kevin Youkilis, in his first full season as a big-leaguer, recorded a 106 OPS+. They had expensive, past-their-prime veterans playing out the string in Keith Foulke, Trot Nixon and the pictured David Wells (whom they traded back to San Diego in August). Mark Loretta was the stopgap second baseman.
Those Red Sox actually led the AL East at the '06 All-Star break, yet the infamous "Boston Massacre II" (a favorite of baileywalk's, if memory serves correct - you have to scroll down a few) highlighted a 9-21 August. They sleepwalked through September, their playoff chances shot.
So what happened? They made three major expenditures the subsequent winter, on J.D. Drew, Julio Lugo and Daisuke Matsuzaka. Only Dice-K helped significantly last year. Otherwise, the difference came in one low-risk acquisition, lefty reliever Hideki Okajima, and the improvement of youngsters: Beckett blossomed in Year 2 of his Fenway Park stay. Youkilis improved. Dustin Pedroia took over at second base and won AL Rookie of the Year honors. Jacoby Ellsbury and Clay Buchholz showed up late and displayed some mad skills. And Lester returned in time to win the World Series clincher, and he made more history on Monday night.
More youngsters, like last night's winning pitcher Justin Masterson (it was his first career victory), are adding to the Red Sox's fun this year.
These 2008 Yankees are in last place, not first, and they're playing some brutal, brutal baseball right now. Yet the plan is in motion for a similar turnaround to their Rivals'. Once this season ends, then Bobby Abreu, Kyle Farnsworth, Jason Giambi, Mike Mussina, Andy Pettitte and Carl Pavano will all be off the books. Then Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui after 2009.
Even if Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy don't make it, there is an army of arms coming up behind them. There are position players, too, although none of the highly-touted outfielders at Double-A Trenton _ Colin Curtis, Austin Jackson and Jose Tabata _ is really lighting it up. Then again, neither did Ellsbury at Double-A in '06.
It's entirely feasible that the pieces won't fall in place for Brian Cashman and the Yankees like they did for Epstein and the Red Sox. But just as Epstein was willing to take a step back for the greater good, so are Cashman and Hal Steinbrenner.
It's worth a shot, since the alternative _ paying huge dollars for huge names _ simply hasn't worked to anyone's satisfaction. So no matter how frustrating this season gets for Yankees fans, it's worth reminding yourself that good things can happen to a team, even when it misses the playoffs.
In my column for Saturday's Newsday, I haughtily suggested that Omar Minaya give Randolph three-plus weeks, through the June 8 game at San Diego, to get his team together. That's a 23-game stretch, starting this past Saturday at Yankee Stadium (I'm now noticing that I wrote "21 games" and that the stretch ended with the Dodgers, not the Padres. Yeesh). So far, the Mets are 2-2, and appear worse for the wear.
The directors are now working on another project entitled, "Heckuva Day: Stories from Shea Stadium," and they are looking for fans to interview about your memories of Shea. If you're interested, e-mail Katherine Foronjy at kforonjy@mathematicallyalive.com. The linked Web site has everything else you'd want to know about "Mathematically Alive," including how to see it.
Comments (20)
Ken, I don't know if Cashman will be with the Yankees next year. Neither does anyone else know for sure. The money the Yanks will have from expiring contracts will be used to sign players like Mark Teixeira or any other free agency that is out there. That's something I can see happening. I also can see the Yanks used some their top prosepects in a trade.
It looks a lot like the new Steinbrenner regime will be a lot like the old one. Trade prospects for major leaguers, spend big money on free agents, do everything you can to win now. That's the way he talks anyway. Cashman has different ideas, but he isn't in charge. I wouldn't mind Teixiera.
While Randolph deserves his share of the blame...but what about Minaya, who failed to upgrade last year's bullpen...and Peterson who cant seem to figure out what's wrong with Heimlich, er Heilman...as for the Yankees, next year's $$ saving could very well be spent on Sabathia to head the rotation, along with Hughes, Kennedy and Joba.
I wouldn't mind if Hank endured a nice 10-year mediocre spell like his father did through most of the 80s and early 90s. Just the thought of this accidental boss looking good at this stage makes me sick to my stomach. Maybe he will find the weight of expectations too much to bear and sell the team.
Thanks for the mention, Ken. I am humbled.
I think you're on the right track about the Yanks. I still wouldn't be shocked, having experienced last year, if they snuck into the playoffs through the wild card, but I've come to grips with the idea that this might be the end of the playoff run.
Before this season started, Hank (and others) said that everyone had to have patience with these young players and sort of hinted that the playoffs were no longer a guarantee. I hope everyone can live with that, and if the Yanks miss the playoffs they don't go overboard to fix the problem. As long as they continue to develop players and not overspend on useless vets, they should be fine. I think Teixiera is worth it, but not C.C.
With the reluctance by the Yanks to spend on free-agent pitchers, is it possible they have an entirely homegrown pitching staff next year -- with Wang, Hughes, Joba, Kennedy and someone like McCutch/Horne as the five? That would be quite a sight.
Sandy: Why do you think that this Steinbrenner regime will be like the old one? What prospects have they traded lately? What big-name free agents have they signed to outlandish, multi-year contracts (Clemens was just for one year)?
Poppy: The Mets' bullpen has been very good, besides Heilman. You're going to blame Peterson for Heilman but not give him credit for the rest of the staff pitching pretty well?
Ken, who is the leading candidate to replace Willie? Does one even exist? Is Keith Hernandez a realistic option, or is that something the media created?
I didn't even know the media created the Hernandez option, baileywalk. I don't see Keith committing to that. He enjoys his cushy lifestyle.
I think it's an 80% chance that it's Jerry Manuel, with the field taking the other 20%. Manuel has the managerial experience with the White Sox. At this point, I don't think the Mets need a "fiery" guy (I have a new column up on the "fiery" issue) as someone merely more sane than Randolph. Manuel is respected by everyone in the organization.
Ken I just think that Cashman prevented Hank from trading away a whole batch of young players for Santana. Since then, Hank has expressed dissatisfaction in not making that trade. For now, Cashman seems to have a big say in what is going on, but this lack of success of the younger players/pitchers this season might be the end of that. If Cashman loses his say or gets fired, I would expect things to go back to the way they have always been. They haven't signed a big name lately unless you count ARod's new contract, and technically I guess he was a free agent for a few weeks. The fact the old man was somewhat disgusted with the $200 million payroll may have had something to do with that. We shall see when all this money comes off after the season.
Ken, I think 85-90 wins is going to win the Wild Card in both leagues. What do you think?
Oh, my God, Ken, perfect timing with your the-future-is-bright blog post today. The Yankees' AA team, the Trenton Thunder, went insane today, scoring 15 runs. Jackson and Tabata were right in the middle of it -- both hitting home runs (Jackson's was a grand slam). Keep hope alive, Yankee fans. Hahaha. Trenton scored 15 and Charleston scored 20 today. I would say you brought them good luck, Ken.
Ken, I want to get straight where you are coming from: Clearly the Yankees don't have their future core on the team right now, do they? Who are the young players going through the growing pains? We know about Hughes and Kennedy, but are you referring to already established players like Cabrera and Cano, or part-timers like Gonzalez or some of the relievers? Or, do you mean that Cashman is buying time with the vets and letting the top tier minor leaguers get ready for the bigs?
It's hard to take the losing, but I do support a plan to let this big contracts play out, avoid signing any other soon to be over the hill players to outlandish deals and letting the youngsters get minor league experience. I think it's a good idea for many reasons. The Yanks will control them for many years under the current CBA, the team has been taken to cleaners with so many underperforming players signed to big deals and there's something to be said for homegrown talent and how it can form the nucleus for championships (Jeter, Posada, Pettitte, Rivera).
When the Yankees are losing now, though (last night for example), it has nothing to do with the youth movement, per se. It's just not a very good team. Many of the vets, are clearly on the downslope of their careers.
A couple of other observations:
1. I don't how you can even think about going with a starting staff that includes Hughes, Kennedy, Joba and a current minor leaguer until Hughes and Kennedy actually start winning games and Joba joins the rotation and also starts to win. Having four unproven pitchers in the rotation is hard to envision and I don't think it will happen - or should happen.
2. I think Cashman has a big say but clearly the Yankees operate by consensus within their hierarchy. Others are clearly in on the decisions. He doesn't have unfettered power.
3. If the Yankees actually move all those players off their roster (don't resign any, i.e. Pettitte) I will be happy. I do think it is time to get younger and to bring in some new faces.
4. I have thought for the past week that the Mets are going to turn to Manuel when the Wilpons dump Willie. I think it is 90 percent and it would be the right thing to do, especially mid-season.
5. Hank S. is bombastic, but hasn't proven to be George at his worst. The Steinbrenner kids (really the two sons) have both said they hated working/dealing with their father because of his personality and M.O. as a boss. They might have learned along the way. I tend to believe they will be far different. We already saw that in the decision not to trade for Santana.
Sandy: But you're forgetting about the presence of Hal Steinbrenner. Hank can't do anything without his younger brother's backing, and from all appearances and actions, Hal is rational and perhaps even penny-pinching.
Dennis: I agree on 85-90 for the NL wild-card. I'm not yet ready to commit to that for the AL. I think we could view many teams (Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Minnesota, White Sox, Texas) hitting rough patches in the second half of the AL schedule, with the top feeders benefiting from that. But sure, it wouldn't shock me if that's all it took for the wild card.
Jim: The Yankees' future core includes, for sure, A-Rod, Jeter, Posada, Cano and Cabrera on the position-playing side; and Wang, Chamberlain and Rivera on the pitching side. All of the other jobs on, say, the 2010 Yankees are up for the taking. Maybe Gonzalez, Hughes, Kennedy and Ohlendorf, let's say, are the keepers going through growing pains. Or maybe it's all a bunch of guys in the minors (so many pitchers, the outfielders I mentioned). Or maybe it's Humberto Sanchez, rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.
Just like the '06 Red Sox gave jobs to Trot, Wells and Foulke, with the understanding that there was no chance they'd be back, the Yankees are giving jobs to the guys I mentioned who are coming off the books in the next year or two. The idea is, you plug the holes while your youngsters develop in the minors.
Regarding Cashman, Jim, he certainly polls his scouts and statisticians. But every move made in the organization since the middle of '05 carries his fingerprints.
And one more think on Hank: While he is making Cashman's life miserable, he is not bullying the unknown worker bees, as his dad was known for. That's something that Hank apparently learned not to do - although it sounds like son-in-law Felix Lopez doesn't mind picking on the people lower in the food chain.
Ken - Gotcha. I understand about A-Rod, Jeter, Posada, Cano and Cabrera being part of the core. I should have been clearer in stating the future core being the unproven group. My point being the team isn't currently a bunch of rookies going through growing pains. Many of the future players are in AA or AAA ball.
Glad to finally get clear once and for all that Cashman got the power he wanted and the accountability that comes with it. By not signing free agents, the Yankees have also avoided losing draft picks.
I can only hope for the best. Yankee fans know just how tough it was to root for them when it was George and Billy time and George "let's change the pitching coach every 3 weeks time and the GM every 2 months time". I would like Hal to be the more prominent managing partner, but it looks like it might be Hank.
I think most of the press would prefer Hank.
Sandy, I'm going to keep challenging you here: What makes you say "It looks like it might be Hank"? Because he's talking so much? Hal is the one who's going to work every day and communicating with Cashman. The next person Hank fires will be the first. Hank is 100 percent bluster.
Would the press "prefer" Hank? Fair question. I have nothing invested in the Yankees, besides good stories. Inner turmoil is a good story, but so is excellence.
although it sounds like son-in-law Felix Lopez doesn't mind picking on the people lower in the food chain.
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Interesting comment. Does this refer to anything specific? Not that I have any vast inside knowledge, but when Felix married into the family, his wife raised hell about the prominence of Steve Swindal and wanted Felix to have a similarly important job. They gave him some sort of name-only position to make her happy, and apparently he's become close to George over the years. I'm shocked that a guy who was basically gifted everything he has with this organization wouldn't respect those below him.
Ken, yesterday you made a comment about the possibility of Cashman turning up at ESPN if he gets canned or walks away. I don't see it. I have been around him several times, including an elevator ride at the BBWAA dinner and spoken with him. He seems very ill at ease and doesn't display the persona that a TV personality needs. The guy comes across as a bundle of nerves that has the weight of the world on him. He has a vacant look in his eyes. I can't imagine how they will be able to get him ready for TV. He comes across as one of the worst possible people to put on ESPN.
If Philly promised the GM position to someone else, I still think Cashman could go there as some type of senior advisor, etc. Same thing in Washington.
baileywalk: Lopez oversees a lot of the day-to-day operations in Tampa now - not on the scouting side, per se. More pedestrian stuff like new elevator installations at Steinbrenner (a.k.a. Legends) Field and a new party deck there, as well. He likes getting his hands on everything, making hay when there's no need for hay to be made, and that has annoyed many of the employees down there.
Jim: I hope you can appreciate the fact that I know Cashman somewhat well, having covered him since 1997 (his last year as Yankees assistant GM) and having had countless conversations with him over the years. Here's my take: Cashman has strong family ties in the New York area, so while on one hand he might feel tempted by the challenge of a new job, on the other hand, he wouldn't be excited, at all, about leaving the area.
I can honestly say I think Cashman handles the stress of his job pretty well. As for the TV possibility, his greatest challenge would be to speak in "sound bites" - as you've seen at the BBWAA dinner, he tends to go on and on and on (and on and on) when he talks. But with the proper coaching, I think it could work - and it would allow hiim to earn a good living while not uprooting his family.
I'm not saying he'll definitely go do TV, but I think it'd be a real consideration. And I also think there's a decent chance that Cashman re-ups as Yankees GM.
Ken, thanks for the info. This is why your blog is the best!