If you're wondering which New York team is more likely to make the playoffs, it's the Mets

Took most of the weekend off, after last week's exhausting turn of events, and barely watched any game action. But now I"m tanned and rested, and ready to go back at it.
On "Fox Sports Extra" last night, host Duke Castilgione asked the New York Post's Mike Vaccaro and me, "Who has a better chance of making the playoffs, the Yankees or Mets?"
I said the Mets, because I always stay faithful to my preseason predictions. I think this past week displayed, vividly, what an upgrade the Mets received by replacing Willie Randolph with Jerry Manuel in the manager's office. And with Mike Pelfrey dealing, the Mets can throw out a pretty good starting pitcher, health permitting, every day. And now they won't play another game west of the Central time zone. After all the Mets have been through, isn't it amazing that they're just two games behind the Phillies and Marlins in the loss column?
The Yankees? I question their starting rotation and their strength of schedule (it's very hard) most of all. I also think the AL East is proving very difficult. You'll see that I selected Toronto as my AL wild card, and as I'm sure you can all appreciate, that was a typo. I intended to predict Tampa Bay in that slot. We all make spelling mistakes, right? You understand, I know.
In any case, it turns out that the Mets ARE more likely to make the playoffs than the Yankees, according to people who put far more thought into this than I do.
Check out this site. Each day, Baseball Prospectus analyst Clay Davenport simulates the rest of the season one million times - incorporating all of the updated data, and utilizing said data to project ahead.
Look at what today's forecast tells us: Of the one million simulated season conclusions, the Mets make the playoffs 22.7 percent of the time. The Yankees qualify 15.2 percent of the time.
It's a pretty neat tool, as you can see. How interesting that the A's are the "favorites" to win the AL West, despite trailing the Angels by 4 1/2 games. And that the Tigers, after their memorably horrendous starts, are up to a 12.2 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Thoughts? With which of these projections do you agree, and with which do you disagree? The great thing about this page is that you can check it every day, and the odds will fluctuate in conjunction with the team's success.


Comments (38)
Thanks Ken for giving all the Carlin fans a smile on this sad day...
Yes Professor Frink, you win. Billy Cyrstal is a comic genius.
Speaking of football comparisons, what about the manger's attempt to be George Carlin with little dig at Jose Reyes where he said “Last night, Reyes — she acted up. I brought her home with me. She had a day off.”
Hahahaha. Great joke Jerry. If you are female you aren't tough, women are moody.
On behalf of 50% of the people in the world go **** yourself.
Ken, I totally disagree with you on the Yanks and Mets. In the Yanks case, the Wild Card is so wide open. The team you pick at the start of the season the Jays are in last place and their offense stinks. The Rays are playing great right now, but let me seee the Rays in a big spot when they had to win a game they need. The AL Central is going to beat each other up. The A's can go either way. They could be there in the end or fall on their face. And its not like the Red Sox are running away with the AL East, so the division is up for grabs. No one in the AL scares me as far as the Wild Card. The Angels and Red Sox are the only teams that I consider are the best teams in the AL that are a lock to make the playoffs. Everybody else are scrambling to get in. I said it before and I'll say it again, the Yanks will find a way to make the playoffs. You watch Ken.
The Mets have play much better of late. But let's face it, its not like the Mets are in 2nd place. There in 3rd place behind the Phillies and Marlins. And let's remember, when it comes with the Phillies and Mets, the Phillies have far more heart, grid and most importantly guts than the Mets. When push comes to shove, the Phillies will pervail because of the 3 things that I just metion. Also the Wild Card is not a sure thing for the Mets. The NL West will beat each other up. But look out for the Cardinals. They just took 2 out of 3 from the Red Sox. People are underestimating the Cardinals. And we know what the Cardinals did to the Mets in the NLCS in 06.
Bob no feminism on this board please. Every time you make a feminisim comment, I will pay off Davidoff two donuts to his favorite charity so he puts up another Crystal picture. But seriously, I love the power trip Ken. Threatening your loyal bloggers is good!! Your turning into this man en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vince_McMahon
And I forgot which one loved Mike & the Mad Dog, but Jim or Dennis (sorry to the one that doesn't) is in mounring today.
I would be perfectly happy if Mike and the Mad Dog never appeared again together, or separately for that matter.
Ken
I was wondering if you could answer a few questions about interleague play. It seems to me, when it first started it was fairly regimented - each year, teams would play a division in the other league on a rotating basis and these games would be played during a certain week or two during the season.
The last couple of years, however the schedule looks like something my 11 month old spit up. Last year the Mets played teams from all 3 AL divisions and this year I'm pretty sure there are other teams doing the same. The games themselves are scheduled somewhat randomly and certain teams are playing more interleague games than others.
Has it always been this way and I'm just noticing it or has baseball changed the way they're handling this?
For the record, I'm not a fan of interleague games (I'd rather see more games against teams in your own league) but I've begrudgingly accepted it's here to stay.
Message to Dennis:
In your disagreement with Ken, you offer zero insight as to why the Yankees will win either the division or the wild card. Instead, all you do is pooh-pooh other teams' chances. Your obvious Yankee bias notwithstanding, why will the Yankees and not any other team "find a way to make the playoffs?"
Please use some statistics to support your claim (hey, how about switching off YES once in a while and instead scroll through Hardball Times or Baseball Prospectus?) in lieu of leaving an uber-long post simply because you can.
Richie - feminist? Try common sense!
Does the stereotyping below offend you? Stan Isaacs of Newsday regarding Alvin Dark...a man who also banned Spanish in the clubhouse...via Neil Best's blog..
"We have trouble because we have so many Negro and Spanish-speaking players on the team. They are just not able to perform up to the white ballplayer when it comes to mental alertness . . . You can't make most Negro and Spanish players have the pride in their team that you can get from white players."
When Isaacs noted the mental acuity of the Boston Celtics' black players, Dark said he was going by what he saw. "If I'm wrong," he said, "then I have been getting an awful number of the slow ones."
Gee, too bad he couldn't win more with Mays, Marichal, McCovey, Cepeda, Jim Ray Hart, the Alous...let alone Bolin, McMahon, Davenport...
If Manuel has to stoop to comic machisno to reach his Latin players, they're all wothless human beings - yes, even worse than Barry Bonds!.
Like his gangsta comments, Manuel is full of fertilizer.
Look at the last 3 years for the Yanks. They got off to awful starts, yet they find a way to make the playoffs JE. You mean to tell me that they can't do that again? Granted its Girardi as the manager not Torre. The pitching is suspect and the Lineup is old but producted. You tell me which team is going to overtake the Yanks for at laest the Wild card. The Rays? Let me see the Rays play a big game in August and September with a lot more pressure and expections on line. The Baseball Prospectus simulations are overrated. They don't play games by simulations by stats and data. Baseball is play on the field, not by similations and computers. Who gives a dann about that.
Jim, you definitely have a bias against Mike and the Mad Dog.
Mike and the Mad Dog are entertainers, and poor ones at that. Their "analysis", if can even call it that, is totally worthless. How can anyone listen to them for more than 5-10 minutes a day?
To avoid eternal damnation, let me agree that Baseball Prospectus is a fascinating site and the projections are as valid as possible, given the r-squared of the results.
To continue to damnation, I will conclude on "feminism" by examining it in two ways - legal ramifications and moral.
1. Manuel is management, and management (which is in charge of hiring and firing) is covered by Title VII of the Civil Rights Act of 1964.
Title VII's broad prohibitions against sex discrimination specifically cover, suchg as sexual harassment. This includes practices ranging from direct requests for sexual favors to workplace conditions that create a hostile environment for persons of either gender.
Manuel's comments can be interpreted as creating a hostile workplace in the Mets’ organization. Could baseball executive Kim Ng interpret these remarks as a reason to not feel welcome as a candidate for the potentially open Mets’ GM position? Would the Wipon's like a lawsuit on their hands?
2. If sports are supposedly important to the development of character, why should women be discouraged from participation or deemed unworthy of receipt of these valuable lessons learned in an artificially created man's world?
If Manuel’s words are deemed socially acceptable, at what age does the development of character through competition on the field end? If such an age exists, why are we surprised that the steroid era happened, as sports is then far removed from being about character and being a role model?
--
That's it - I am off the site for awhile. Bye!
I'm curious what Ken thinks of this... and also Jim. What did you make of the crowd giving Griffey a standing ovation for his 601th home run? I was shocked. Maybe even a little disgusted. Griffey, amazingly, STILL holds a grudge against New York and the Yankees because Billy Martin yelled at him when he was a child. So even though he's hated New York (and said as much) for years and even though he beat them in the '95 playoffs, denying Mattingly a shot at a ring, the Yankee fans mysteriously cheered him. And his reaction? To say the Stadium has a lot of history -- history they'd like to forget, too, like a race around the bases. They cheer for him and he giddily brings up when his team crushed the hearts of Yankee fans, in the final sad moments of Don Mattingly's career. To me, this makes him the biggest petty jerk I've ever seen. You guys agree?
I think the fans appreciated Griffey for what he did in baseball all these years and in his last ever appearance in Yankee Stadium had the opportunity to show it. I know all those years ago the bleacher bums showed/told Griffey exactly what they thought of him and he always responded well. I hold a grudge against the Yankees and George Steinbrenner and Billy Martin for making it extremely hard to root for the Yankees back then, but everyone else is forgiven, even Reggie Jackson. I was there the rainy night Ron Guidry grooved him a pitch for a homer his first game back as an Angel and we gave him a standing O too.
Dennis has a point that the Yankees have come from farther back than this to make the playoffs, especially last year. I really don't see all that much ahead of them to keep them out this year. Tampa? They are still starting Edwin Jackson and Andy Sonassteine the other 3 are stars and David Price just got promoted to Double A this morning after just 6 professional starts in A ball. He'll be there in September. Detroit and Cleveland are in pretty much the same boat as the Yankees as far as catching up goes, but I think the Yankees have better pitching than both. Minnesota and Oakiland probably don't have enough talent to hang on to the end of the year. The Mets don't have an extremely rough road either, they can pass Florida and St. Louis I believe and they are sailing ont he same boat Milwaukee is. I wouldn't be surprised if both teams are in as the wild cards.
Bob: Bill Parcells called Terry Glenn "she" too back in the day because he wanted the patriots to draft someone else and all Glenn became was one of his most favorite players of all-time.
Griffey is lucky that he doesn't play for the Yanks or Mets because he would have been rip apart like everybody else. If he said what he said over the weekend playing in New York, Griffey would have been boo out of the building.
Yes, even after all the Mets turmoil, they're still closer to first place than the Yankees.
RIP...George Carlin...in doing sports, George would give partial scores...Mets 3..., Yankees 4...
Dennis, since when does experience become the deciding factor in baseball? Since when does grit (I will assume that "grid" was a typo) or getting one's uniform dirty win more games than a .400 on-base percentage? Show me a winning team and you'll find a ball club did it because of quantifiable numbers. By the way, how did the Phillies grit compare to the Rockies in last year's NLDS? And how did their guts do against the Angels and Red Sox this past week? Sorry, but the Phillies win and lose based on their talent, not their grit and guts.
Also, experience is exaggerated. Aside from the team's age, where are the gaping holes in the team? How did the '97 or '03 Marlins, the '01 Diamondbacks, '02 Angels, or the '05 White Sox win World Series without experience? Derek Jeter had lousy postseasons in '98, '01 (yes, even counting the game-winning home run in the Series), and '07. (He performed exceptionally well in '97, '99, '00, '02, and '06.) What does that say about the importance of experience? Not much.
If the Yankees win a wild card spot, then it will be because they earned it, not because everyone else collapsed. Jeter and Abreu will reach base much more frequently and Chamberlain will continue on the path to becoming a dominating starting pitcher. That will boost their runs scored/runs against totals in comparison to their opponents, which is the way most teams win ball games.
Baseball may be played on the field and not by computers but any team not giving weight to advanced statistical analysis at how they judge a player's worth is being left behind in today's game.
By the way, Dennis, who pitched for the Mets on the last game of the season last year and couldn't even get out of the first inning??? Yes, it was that untested rookie Tom Glavine, who had clearly been rattled to pitch in a big game in September.
Bob I did not see where Manuel said that, but if he did...my answer is so what. Reyes showed him up, now he's Terry Glenning Reyes. Whatever Randolph was doing obviously wasn't working.
And not all insults are the same. Alvin Dark's comments were obviously indefensible, even back then. But Manuel's comments aren't close to that.
Were you upset with the blowup doll in the White Sox lockerroom? I personally thought it was funny.
I love my Mother, sister, and nieces. But in sports, there is some lockeroom humor. And if you cant take it, then you shouldn't be in the lockerroom to begin with.
Fact is, men are stronger and physically superior than women. Its why they dont compete with men. And of course there are girls out there who are better than me at sports. But there not better at baseball than Fernando Vina. And there not better at golf than Jeff Maggart. And there not better at football than Kyle Brady. None are. And those guys aren't very good for pros.
Now if he said all women are dumb and stupid...then that's a firable offense. But not for calling someone a she. Though again, I didn't see the full quote.
When I said Manuels comments aren't close to that...I meant not from what you said he said.
Wow, we're all around the place today. JE, thanks for your contributions! Hope you stick around.
Regarding Jerry Manuel's "She" comments on Jose Reyes, that was before Wednesday's game in Anaheim. I was part of the media scrum. Admittedly, I was so confused by what Manuel was saying that I looked around the group of media to see if anyone else was taken aback. And, full disclosure, just to give you a glimpse of how the job works...by that point, I already knew that I'd be writing about Tony Bernazard, so I didn't pay a great deal of attention to it.
Manuel has shown, quickly, that he's a colorful talker. The delivery is less powerful than the words, like when he talks about "gangstas" and threatens to "cut" Jose Reyes. He says it in a grandfatherly type voice. I haven't taken offense to anything he's said so far, though the beauty of our country is we all have the right to be offended.
Andy, interleague play has always been a little wacky because of the 16-14 NL-AL balance. There always has to be one intraleague NL series going on. But you're right, the past few years, they've just kind of given up on the logic behind it. Look at this year, when the Yankees played San Diego even though they're supposed to be playing the NL Central this year. Or, as you mentioned, last year, when the Mets played teams from all three AL divisions. Simply put, there is no integrity to the MLB schedule.
baileywalk, Junior alwasy has been pretty jerky. Obviously, he should've expressed more gratitude. I do think it was extremely classy of the Stadium crowd to offer up the Standing O. I love when opposing players get treated that well. I was always impressed with the treatment that Cal Ripken Jr. received in the Bronx.
baileywalk: I don’t mind the Yankee fans giving Griffey a standing O, but I wouldn’t have felt compelled to do so. His 30 year grudge against the team because of the clubhouse incident is something a shrink would have field day with. After leaving Seattle his career certainly went down. He has only played more than 128 in a season twice in the past nine years and he has batted .271, .286, .264, .247, .253, .301, .252, .277 and this year’s .249. Before going to Cincinnati it looked like he might be one of the greatest of all-time. I have never cared for Griffey and always hated that hat-on-backwards stuff while he was on the field (I haven’t forgotten the All-Star game when it rankled some other players). I respect his 601 HRs, but I am glad I never had to root for the guy as a Yankee. Griffey doesn’t rise to the level of Bonds, but I always thought he had a little bit of a chip on his shoulder.
It’s pretty interesting his numbers were so much different during the Steroid Era. It’s also interesting he hasn’t been able to make it through a full season in a long time. Are the injuries a coincidence?
Bob: You were right about Manuel two weeks ago. This guy is a loose cannon, to say the least. The “she” comments, the tirade about the fans being fertilizer and the suspicion he is going to say something even worse before too long all make me believe the Mets aren’t through making fools of themselves as an organization. Fred Wilpon is in full damage control today over Omar, Willie, etc. Fred is a blowhard. I’m sure Fred loves his kid, but I wouldn’t let Jeff manage a Burger King let alone run a franchise. If I said at work what Manuel said at his job (in front of reporters), I would have a lot of explaining to do. Also, when Parcells made his comments he had already won a Super Bowl. What has Manuel ever won? Plus, I think it cheapened Parcells. Did Vince Lombardi ever make that kind of dumb statement? No.
Sorry guys, I am not "gangsta", ready to "play wit it" or prone to "holla". I will wear a belt on my pants and will not shoiw my underwear with pride in public. Women are not bitches or ho's and I respect the people who raised me to know right from wrong - and I respect the sacrifices and play of those who came before me. I don't wear sunglasses at night or make lame comments about cutting people or capping someone. I run out any ball that I hit, as it may not be a home run, I don't whine about pithcing inside or wear kevlar on my arm. I will not wear these god awful pajama pants and trip over them runnung down the bases - what's next - onesies for MLB? I respenct my teammates, fans and give mt full those who may be watching me play for the first time. I get dirty when I play but I play the game clean with no druggist on speed dial
I am last generation's athlete in a "look at me" world.
In this statement Richie and I can hopefully agree.
Locker room humor that is kept behind the clubhouse doors is one thing. Making dumb (legally actionable?) comments in front of reporters is quite another. See the difference? What happens if Reyes develops a deep hatred for Manuel? How does that help the Mets? Keep it behind closed doors. The guy's mouth runneth over.
Bob: I hear that Manuel said that he Castillo because he "threw like a girl". last time I checked, calling someone a she is not legally actionable. Lighten up.
I will say that after the bizarre "fertilizer" comment, maybe Jerry could use a little bit of a filter.
Bob its a good thing you're retired, because you would never make in todays MLB. And that's sad because from what you described, that's the exact type of player I'd want my nephew to emulate. Whether you went 0-4 with four K's or gave up 10 runs in the 1st inning. It's why I wont ever boo Heillman or Wagner because from people I trust who knows what's going on, those two care more than anyone on the team.
And again, if Manuel called women what many rappers do, then I'd have an issue with it.
Matt - Sorry to infrom you. but under federal law, those comments can be actionable in the world today, as I described in detail regarding Kim Ng and any attempt to become a Mets GM in the future.
RG - I await the unavoidable continuation comments from Jerry that approach that level - the "gangsta", "play wit it" and "holla" all were in the NY Times last week. I wonder how players like Ryan Church who is very religious will react to the new manager.
P.S. - I wonder how Matt Treanor and Nomar Garciaparra - and their wives - react to statements like Jerry's?
Since I've mentioned her twice...Kim Ng...the Dodgers will give her permission to interview for the mariners GM job if called.
And firings do occur for verbal blunders..one involved Kim Ng and the Mets
"Mets fire scout for racially insensitive remarks"
NEW YORK (AP) — Bill Singer was fired by the New York Mets on Tuesday, a week after the newly hired special assistant made racially insensitive remarks to a Los Angeles Dodgers executive.
At the general manager's meetings in Phoenix, Singer reportedly asked Dodgers assistant general manager Kim Ng questions about her background and later spoke in gibberish, making fun of the Chinese language.
"As a matter of policy our organization can not and will not tolerate any comment or conduct by an employee that suggests insensitivity or intolerance to any racial, ethnic or religious group," Duquette said in a statement. "Any deviation from this standard is not acceptable."
Bob, Duquette also fired Scott Kazmir, so maybe the Mets are just doing the opposite of whatever he did.
Baseball talent does not survive when it comes near the Duquette family.
And remember that Jim D was preceeded by Steve Phillips, who had consensual sex with a team employee (a huge no-no, as you don't sleep with your subordinates) and a few other flings.
Ironically, Steve ends up at ESPN, which fired Harold Reynolds for sexual harrassment - and Harold is now on SNY owned by the Mets.
But the Kim Ng episode was something reprehensible calling a guy a "she" isn't near that level. Nobody ever really moaned about Parcells calling Terry Glenn "she". Singer still works in baseball albeit at a much lower level than he was going to be. And Phillips is doing a lot better as far as his position and financially than he did with the Mets. Of course ESPN has applauded that type of behavior, see Tirico among others. I think Reynolds either won his case or got a huge settlement and he claims he never did what he was accused of.
I invite you all to draw the line about what behavior is OK and what isn't, with the knowledge that the law deals with preception more than it does with some hard and fast line.
It's impossible because "we don't have the necessities" to do so.
Bob: I hate to inform you, but calling someone a "she" wouldn't make it past the EEOC, which would issue a no action letter in about 10 minutes as they've got bigger things to worry about.
Reynolds apparently hugged an intern and it apparently got blown out of proportion because Reynolds did get a big settlement.
While we are on the topic of feminism can someone get Ken a poster of Rabbit Test, Billy Crystal's movie from the 70's where he plays the world's first pregnant man?
I read Wilpon's comments, in Ken's column , and they seem very credible. Minaya is the person who gave Randolph the job (when no one else in MLB would) and Minaya made the ultimate decision to remove him. He had a difficult time pulling the trigger, but did what he had to do when something needed to be done. Bottom line, with the September's debacle and the listless start, Willie needed to go.
Steve Willie was offered the Reds job a season before but declined it because he made more money as a Yankees coach bc of playoff money. So the Wilpons weren't the first people to let them manage his team.
Matt - The Mets shouldn't risk/condone the behavior considering their recent history - a pattern exists, And prosecutors like to go after high profile cases, as the steroids cases show. Whether the Mets are right or not, they will probably be settling after a bad experience (see the Knicks).
Let's try another 'feminism" avenue: What about female reporters in the locker room? How would these comments (and the Chicago White Sox "Major League" impersonation) play out in the public eye?
Matt, I'm pretty certain that Harold Reynolds didn't get a "huge" settlement. While I don't know the precise number, my understanding is it was nowhere near what he wanted (over $5 million).
Interesting discussion all around. I probably lean more towards Bob in my personal opinions, but I have to say, the way that Manuel talks is so different, if you will, that it didn't offend my sensibilities. And I have been accused here many times of being a p.c., left-leaning type.
Manuel has been the manager of the Mets for about a week and already he has stir things up. From the ganster refeneces to calling out Mets fans. I mean Manuel better watch his mouth and hope the Mets keeping winning, otherwise he wouldn't be the manager of the Mets next year.
ESPN has allow their announers to get away with a lot of things. The thing with Harold Reynolds was a joke. The guy got fired because he hug a employee. I'm glad he's working again with MLB.com and SNY.
All of you Harold Reynolds supporters should do a little research. He did more than hug an employee and he most definitely didn't win his case. ESPN did quite an investigation. Look into it a little bit before canonizing him.
A grown man who is in a leadership position (Manuel) shouldn't be calling one of players a girl. It isn't funny. It is stupid. But it goes behind that one reference. It calls into question Manuel's judgment. The fertilizer comment was another dumb remark. Someone needs to stick a cork in this guy and fast.
Bob Tufts is right on the mark on this topic. Wake up. It's 2008. Will a player play hard for a guy who is calling him a girl? Will fans cheer someone who calls them fertilizer?