There's a different feeling in a clubhouse after the final game of a series, at least from my outsider's perspective. Wins feel better, and losses feel worse.
Take last night's Mets game. The Mets performed terribly Monday and Tuesday, looking meek against baseball's worst team. But they avoided a sweep last night, and they'll get to enjoy today's off day knowing that, despite everything that has transpired in their miserable roller-coaster ride of a 2008, they're just three games behind the NL East leaders Philadelphia in the loss column.
The Mets are now 3-0 in series finales under Jerry Manuel, who, to his credit, is at least trying to shake things up. Why not alter the pre-game routine? Does that record reflect something positive about Manuel? Or is it just random?
I conducted some cursory research to see if the result of the series finale carried any sort of extra impact, a positive or negative carryover. Here's what I found:
The Mets were 12-11 (.521 winning percentage) in series finales under Willie Randolph this year, and 34-35 (.493) overall. If you had asked me to guess, I would've said that Randolph's record in finales was worse than that. Because games like this, this and this stick around in the memory.
Last year's Mets were 25-28 (.472) in series finales _ including a "one-game series" makeup against St. Louis, on September 27 _ considerably worse than their overall 88-74 (.543). When they jumped out to a 34-18 (.654) mark, they were 11-7 (.611) in series finales. Then, as they concluded the year 54-56 (.491), they were 14-21 (.400) in the finales. This is more of a match to the mind's eye. You'd think that a historic choker would fare particularly poorly in the last games of series.
Last year's Yankees, 94-68 (.580) overall, went 29-23 (.558) in series finales. En route to their 38-41 (.481) beginning, they were 12-15 (.444). Then, as they surged to 56-27 (.709), they went 17-8 (.680). So they consistently underperformed in series finales, slightly more so during their early struggles.
Last year's Red Sox, the World Series champions, went 31-22 (.585) in series finales and 96-66 (.593) overall, a virtual match. Most important, of course, the Sawx went 3-0 in postseason series finales.
I remember, while covering the 1999 Yankees, speaking to Tino Martinez about the team's inability to "put teams away." Tino was upset that the team would win the first two games of a series, then lose the third (the Yankees teams of that era set the bar pretty high). From looking at that team's game log, this conversation must have taken place around the month of June, during which the Yankees went 3-5 in finales. Overall, however, those '99 Yankees closed series out with a 34-18 (.654) mark, well exceeding their overall record of 98-64 (.605) _ matching the perception that those Yankees possessed "heart, grit and guts," to borrow a phrase from our buddy Dennis.
So the results are mixed, which probably indicates that, in general, we overstate the importance of series finales - and that the old phrase, "Momentum is the next day's starting pitcher," rules all. But it's still interesting to contemplate, and let's see if these Manuel Mets continue to bid opponents farewell with good feelings.
Bob T., I'm particularly interested in your take on this. How much sweeter did those getaway victories feel, and how much worse were the series-ending losses? Did you feel like there was a carryover from one series to the next?
Speaking of Dennis, what did you think of this? Are you still concerned that Joba Chamberlain won't be any good as a starter? Now that Chien-Ming Wang is injured, Chamberlain has turned into a stopper, already.
Good move by the Mets, picking up Andy Phillips on waivers. It's low-risk, high-reward. Start him two games against the Yankees this weekend. At the least, the Mets will enjoy not having a statue at first base.
This story underlines how miraculous the 2005 Yankees' comeback was. That they rode Shawn Chacon, who has made more waves with his attitude than his pitching, and the now-retired Aaron Small to the AL East will go down as one of the least likely rides in baseball history. Compare that to the Yankees' comeback last year, when they leaned on Roger Clemens, Andy Pettitte and Chien-Ming Wang. Slightly higher pedigrees there.
And finally, yes, live chat at 1:00 today. I'd love to see you there.
Comments (37)
The Chacon, Small scenario was right out of the Broadway Play Damned Yankees. It was a miracle. Damn good job by Chacon last night. Choking the GM is always a good way to let out your frustration and negotiate a new contract.
Ken: It does matter, as losing the last game colors your immediate impression of how well a road trip went.
If you had to fly cross country after a trip in which you were 6-2 but lost the last game, you had far too long to think about the failure on the plane ride and would show up at the park tired and angry, with a feeling of loss more than team achievement. Quadruple that for a poor minor league player, if you were subjected to taking a 6 to 10 hour bus ride home.
I am more interested in how a team does in the first game of a series, as I view it as an indication of the performance of advance scouting, preparation and execution of a game plan by the entire organization working together. (Organized stretching doesn't count!)
You know, if they had not already made "The Rookie," I think they would have turned Small's story into a movie by now. His story is so much better than Jim Morris'. It's not even close. Small had some big-league time, but he was about to retire and then finds himself helping the Yankees make the playoffs with a stunning 10-0 record. It just doesn't get any more Hollywood than that. Morris pitched for the Devil Rays (back when they were truly a joke) and had all of 15 innings in the big leagues.
I'm actually really surprised about Shawn Chacon. I've never heard anything about him being a bad person -- in fact, he seemed like a pretty good guy on the Yanks. Sprewell choked his coach and came back from it. I'm sure someone else will give Chacon a job.
Andy Phillips is a great guy, but he can't hit major-league pitching. He's a great first baseman and can play pretty much every infield position. I'm happy to see him sticking in the big leagues, but his character is the best thing he brings to a ball club.
Does Joba remind anyone else of a young, pudgy, dominant pitcher nicknamed the "Babe"? Can Joba swing a bat?
They never should have let Latrell Spreewell off the hook.
Ken, when you lose the first 2 games of a 3 game series or the first 3 games of a 4 game series, the team that is on losing end gets desperate because they don't want to get swept. In this case, the Mets lost the first 2 games to the Mariners and won last night to avoid being swept by the worse team in baseball. My point is losing a series hurts your team.
Joba look great last night. Granted it was against the Pirates, but he look great. Now let's not make Joba the Yanks version of Josh Beckett just yet. Also the Yanks put Joba in the rotation because of his potential as a starter and there was a need because of injures to Hughes, Kennedy and Wang. At the same time they weaken the pen in the process. So yes, Joba is better off in the rotation, but if you are going to pitch him in the rotation the Yanks should have made a decision on Joba at the start of the season and gets some arms in the pen who can throw strikes because everybody in the pen stinks except for Rivera.
The Babe is listed at 6'2", 215. Joba is listed at 6'2", 230. So they are roughly the same size. Of course, the Babe was a lefty.
It's interesting looking at Babe's pitching stats. He threw 300+ innings in back-to-back years and had a 1.75 ERA in 1916. Like all pitchers back then, he didn't have a great strikeout rate, but he basically struck NO ONE out in the 1918/'19 seasons: only 40 in 166 IP in '18 and only 30 in 133 IP in '19.
He also pitched on occasion with the Yankees, and apparently in his last start as a pitcher -- for the 1933 Yankees -- he pitched a complete game and got the win.
Andy Phillips has been a journeymen player for his whole career. He is a all field can't hit type of player. If Phillips had a better bat, he would still be on the Yanks. Instead he was just cut by the Reds and was pick up by the Mets. The Yanks could used his glove, but he didn't hit enough to stick around.
2005 was a year the Yanks were lucky. Their rotation was in shambles. Yet they found a way to make the playoffs because they found pitchers just at the rigth time. Whoever thought that Aaron Small asn Shawn Chacon would recsue the Yanks that year.
Ken Who do you like better as the right handed platoon player at first, Tatis, Phillips, or Easley? Why hasn't Ramon Castro realized that if he could play firstbase as well as Delgado (not too tough) then he would have gotten more at bats. (pinch hit stay in the game, still available to catch if Schneider got hurt). Is he that bad in the field or just not motivated?
Bob Tufts: I'd like to make you a pitching coach for awhile and see if you can disect this. Joba threw 117 pitches in 6 2/3 innings last night. Obviously if the Yankees allowed him to throw that many pitches, he is big and strong enough to do it. My question to you as a pitcher is how do you get Joba to pitch those 117 pitches deeper into the game? I mean if he can get into the eighth inning and avoid a setup man, it's to everyones advantage, so what should he do to get it done? I actually think Joba is strong enough to pitch complete games and I honestly think Girardi is extremely open to having his pitchers pitch complete games.
Dennis, I'm going to keep correcting you, because you keep asserting the wrong facts. The Yankees didn't switch Chamberlain to the starting rotation because there was "a need." They switched him to the rotation because that was the plan all along. I personally would've put him in the starting rotation to begin the year, as part of a six-man rotation. The Yankees obviously disagreed.
CommonSense, I'd like to give Phillips a ride (a couple of weeks, at least) in a platoon with Delgado. It was just last year that he put in a decent month or so (.755 OPS in July) with the Yankees. His defense and upbeat character are assets. I don't think Castro is athletic enough to play first - and as we've learned this last decade or so in New York (Piazza, Sheffield) not just anyone can play first base.
Dennis - The Yankees couldn't start the season with Joba in the rotation and keep his innings at or below 140. The only way to do that was with a 6-man rotation. They didn't want to do that. It might have affected Wang, who demands on a sinker and can't pitch with long rest. The Yankees did the smart thing moving him into the rotation and pulling him from the bullpen. He showed that again last night.
Sandy - Joba faced 27 batters last night, going through the lineup 3 times in 6 2/3 innings. He threw 117 pitches - wth a lead like he had, throwing over 4 pitches per batter is a waste in my opinion.
I do not want to tamper with his power pitching ways, but I would hope that he could add a two seam sinker to his pitches in order to get a few ground balls (if you trust the Yanks' infield defense - another issue) and de-emphasize going for strikeouts unless needed in a situation. To quote Crash Davis, "strikeouts are fascist!".
What the hell, I'd probably put him on the DL within a week of coaching and be in the Yankees witness protection program with Carl Pavano!
Now that Joba is in the rotation, how about the Yanks get some guys for the pen because outside of Rivera everybody else stinks. Someone that can throw strikes and not nibble like Fransworth does. A lefty reliever will nice, but considering the lack of lefty relievers in baseball its going to be very hard to find one. And also another starter for the rotation would help too.
Ken, gaze into the crystal ball. Does Cashman start next season with a rotation that includes Pettitte, Mussina, Wang, Kennedy, Hughes and Chamberlain? Does he excise either Pettitte or Mussina? Does he trade Kennedy as part of a package to fill another need? With the six man rotation is Kennedy the guy who sets up for Mo?
If the Yankees stay close, do they make a play for Garcia? What does he cost them as far as a draft pick?
I think Carl Pavano is in the missing person's file. He still thinks he will pitch for the yankees again? I think it's time for managers to change their ways. There is not enough good pitching around to pull starters in the 6th and 7th innings. Especially if they have thrown only 75-85 pitches. When you think the setup guys are the 7th and 8th best pitchers on the staff, how many teams can actually say they have 8 good pitchers? Very few. So, the mindset should go back to before this all started and get the starter to the closer and that's that. Setup guys should only be used in emergencies because they are not a luxury item.
Jim, at this point, I'd say that Pettitte will return and Mussina won't. As for Kennedy, we really need more data. This second half of the season is very important concerning his future with the Yankees.
They will definitely make a strong play for Garcia, as long as they like what they see in the audition (date TBA), and he won't cost them any draft picks.
Sandy, I'm sorry, there is just too much research supporting the new-age thinking concerning pitch counts. There's a reason why pitchers are managed differently than they were as recently as 15 years ago. This wasn't just randomly decided.
Is Garcia draft pick free because of the late signing date? The surgery?
It's because the Phillies didn't offer Garcia arbitration last December.
Gotcha. I have to get up to snuff on things like that. OK. He shouldn't cost much. I don't see the downside. Just bucks. Yanks have plenty of them.
Ken, do you think Mussina won't return because he'll retire or because he'll go play somewhere else? Honestly, I could easily see him getting exactly the same deal he got after '06. There was also word a while back that the Yankee approached Giambi about returning.
Unless Mussina breaks down and falls apart, I would be surprised if they didn't want to keep him around one more year as insurance against any Hughes/Kennedy struggles.
Ken:
Old days...When Bob Gibson beat the Yankees in the final game of the 1964 Series, his manager, Johnny Keane, touchingly explained why he hadn't removed his clearly exhausted starter: "I had a commitment to his heart."
Beginning of the newer era...As the late Dan Quisenberry said when receiving a Rolaids relief award..."I want to thank all the pitchers who couldn't go nine innings, and manager Dick Howser who wouldn't let them.."
2 years and $23 million is too much for Mussina. We are forgetting about his 2007 season.
baileywalk, I am pretty much guessing at this point on Mussina/Pettitte. We have another half-season of info coming our way before a decision needs to be made. That said, I envision Cashman wanting to bring back Pettitte - he's already on his way to his typical second-half surge, and it's still the first half - but deciding to let Mussina go so that he doesn't block the progress of his young starting pitchers. And I agree with Jim, no matter what, I can't see Cashman giving Mussina a 2-year deal. I'm not sure Mussina would even want more than one year, at this point.
Ken, teams like the Yanks and Red Sox take pitches resulting in the starting pitcher not lasting long in games. Teams are too obsese with the pitch counts.That's why Complete games are not pitch that often anymore.
Many of today's players have received huge signing bonuses and receive years of costly grooming. They are paid handsomely on the MLB level. Yes, hearing about pitch counts is very annoying and some managers seem to take it to an obsessive level. BUT, no one wants to make the expensive mistake of buring out a young arm (or an old arm). Players are coddled today across the board. This isn't the era of Cobb and Ruth and pitching both ends of a doubleheader, etc. Pitch counts are consistant with everything else clubs are doing.
Jim:
Yes indeed. You want to treat players like expensive tools and you want your best pitcher at the moment on the mound at any time. I tend to agree that managers become somewhat formulaic, as they will now be criticized if they don't go with the bullpen usage zeitgeist.
I still detest that pitchers willingly come out of a game - it's the only sport where you are permitted to be a wimp!
I remember reading that Bob Gibson absolutely hated it when either the manager or the catcher came out to talk to him. He practically wanted to attack them. He hated any talking on the mound. I can imagine how he felt when the manager wanted to take him out of the game. We need more Bob Gibson's.
Guys, Bob Gibson pitched in an era where there was no DH, no steroids or weight training or protein shakes, no Citizens Bank Park or Great American Ballpark. I'm not sure he would be as macho if he were pitching in 2008. Times have changed.
Oh, Ken, I don't know about that. Don't sell Gibson short. It was his attitude as much as his arm. Would Ruth, Cobb, Gehrig, et al have been as great in this modern era? I think so. Cobb, of course, would have needed a PR firm on full-time retainer. The great ones find a way to get it done. That's one of the reasons they are great!
Ken:
Bob was a ballsy man and a true leader on and off the field - check Halberstam's "October 1964"
Perhaps we can take modern pitching theory and apply it elsewhere. Maybe an editor likes the way you write the topic sentences and main paragraphs, but feels ther eis a need for someone to work with the middle of the article. And don't worry about the ending - we have an editorial closer for that.
Just bithcin' for its own sake..
If pitchers are being used more efficiently now than in the past, wouldn't that make todays' hitters better in comparison to those players of the 60's to 80's who faced inproperly used hurlers(steroid adjusted...and then amphetamine readjusted)?
I remember one of the main arguments there was for the DH was "you won't have to pinch hit for the pitcher in late innings of the game. The manager will have to make less moves." Uh, what' happened? Anyway if it is done the right way ie: not taking out a starting pitcher in the 7th inning because you're supposed to ala Joe Torre's automatic pitching change and going with your gut then it works. I mean why take a guy out if he's really pitching well, just because you are supposed to take him out? But with the lack of pitching today the more pitchers you use in a game is that much more risky. A starter who starts 30 games and pitches 7 complete every game only pitched 210 innings. That's not so bad considering in my lifetime I have seen guys pitch 280-320 innings. I think it's ridiculous when Greg Maddox comes out after 6 and has only thrown 70 pitches. I know it's basically his call, but who in the Padres bullpen can possibly be anywhere near Greg Maddox, even now?
Steve Carlton threw 304 innings in 1980. No other pitcher has thrown 300 innings in a season since then and I don't think any will for a long, long time.
I wonder what the Yankees will do if Mussina offers to stay for $5 million? As late as March, they could have had Kyle Lohse, a 29 year old that now has a 9-2 record. He signed for $4.25 million with the Cardinals. The Mets were a lot more interested than the Yankees. Cashman wanted to go with the kids. But at 29, Lohse isn't elderly.
Ken, who's idea is it that the Yanks play a get away road night game against the Pirates with a Daynight doubleheader against the Mets tomorrow? It seems to me that the Yanks always play a get away game at night during the week. I know the Yanks are a big draw, especially on the road, and teams decide the time of these games, but how about the Yanks get more get away day games?
Is Jason Isringhausen done at age 35? 1-5, 5.74 ERA and 1.61 WHIP. OPA of .371.
Dennis, you nailed it: The Pirates wanted a night game. End of discussion.
Not looking good for Izzy, eh, Jim? I'm sure he'll find something next year, even if it's a minor-league contract, if he so desires. Maybe he could even salvage something this year. He has one of the best pitching coaches in the industry.
Great article comparing the farm systems. I feel good about what Cashman has done and what the player development/scouting departments have accomplished. I also think Hughes and Kennedy will eventually be successful. They have too much talent not to be.