Let "trade month" begin - and there's a live chat today
And so we begin baseball's craziest month, in which we'll deal with endless trade speculation and perhaps even some false rumors. Thirty days from now, we'll face the non-waivers trading deadline, and we'll see what kind of changes have occurred.
It looks like we'll have a really big catch this year _ the biggest in-season trade of a pitcher, arguably, since Randy Johnson went from Seattle to Houston on July 31, 1998. With Cleveland plummeting out of the pennant race, it makes sense that the Indians shop reigning AL Cy Young Award winner C.C. Sabathia. At this point, I'd be very surprised if they didn't trade him.
The bar Indians GM Mark Shapiro will set is the two 2009 compensatory draft picks (a "sandwich" pick between the first and second round, and a selection in either the back half of the first round or front half of the second round) that he'd receive if he simply retained Sabathia and let him go via free agency. Any winning package of players will have to exceed the potential quality available in those two picks. That standard should be met and exceeded, given how much of a difference-maker Sabathia can be. Shapiro will probably winnow the field to four or five teams, at which point he'll begin serious negotiations.
I'd be surprised if any seriously bidding team asked for a negotiating window to try to sign Sabathia to a long-term deal. After all, if a front office is intelligent enough to have put together a farm system strong enough to land Sabathia, then you'd think those same people would have no interest investing nine figures in a pitcher whose rotund physique scares the daylights out of the industry _ not to mention the general principle that you shouldn't pour that many dollars in any one pitcher, regardless of what he looks like.
To echo a point Buster Olney made on his blog (linked on the left) on June 23, when you're trying to figure out Sabathia's most aggressive suitors, it's like determining the suspect in a crime. You need to find both means (the goods to get him) and motive (the desire to get him).
I think the Yankees have only the means. As Brian Cashman told Johnette Howard the other day, the Yankees are still trying to change the perception that they'll go out and sacrifice the future for the present. The Yankees have come this far in The Plan. Even if they miss the playoffs this year, which looks increasingly likely after nights like last night, I don't think they'll be seriously deterred.
The Mets are the opposite: They have only motive. As we've discussed recently, their farm system is thin. Besides, unless Moises Alou somehow finds the fountain of youth, the Mets' biggest need will probably be a bat at outfield and/or first base, John Maine's effort last night notwithstanding.
Buster's "top five" Sabathia suitors yesterday were Milwaukee, Tampa Bay, Boston, the Dodgers and the Cubs. That sounds right to me. The Cubs, still my corporate siblings just a little bit for a little longer, would probably rank first in motive, but don't have a wonderful farm system. The Brewers have a great minor-league system, and while 26 years (without a World Series appearance) isn't quite 100 years (without a World Series victory, for the Cubs), ownership in Milwaukee is pretty anxious to take the next step in Doug Melvin's plan.
The Sabathia talks figure to dominate the month, deservedly so. Otherwise... Erik Bedard? He's damaged goods right now. If I were Seattle, I'd hang onto Bedard, because right now, the Mariners are selling low. Sandy, you asked yesterday about the Mariners dealing Ichiro. I'd be shocked. He's the face of the franchise, and at the same time, he's overpaid, making his contract (he's in the first year of a five-year, $90-million deal) difficult to move.
A.J. Burnett? Perhaps, but Toronto is starting to play a little better. It might be too early to give up. Or I might just be biased, because I made the questionable preseason prediction that the Jays would make the World Series.
Matt Holliday? Doubtful. Then we're talking about guys like San Diego's Brian Giles and Randy Wolf, the Indians' Paul Byrd, maybe some people from Kansas City. And the beauty of the sport is, there'll probably be some surprise buyers and sellers that will emerge over the course of the next month.
You question whether, at some point, some aspect of their pitching will break down. But we're past the halfway point, and the Rays are showing zero indication that they're fakers.
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Comments (42)
If you trade for Sabathia, are you getting Randy Johnson or David Wells?
Either way, Bob, you'd be getting a pretty good pitcher, no?
Considering Sabathia's body, I fear you're getting the 2003 World Series David Wells' back spasm version or the last few years of Randy Johnson's disk surgery.
Ken, It seems to me that the Yankees fans have given up on this season. I for one aren't on of them. Every expect including you have counted the Yanks out already. Well let me tell you something, we still have July, August and September to go. Anything can happen in 3 mouths. The Rays have been a great story this season with the best record in baseball. But let's remember here. The Rays have never been in this situation before. Expections will be rise, and the Rays will experience the pressures of being in a pennant race for the first time. Ken, you talk about the Yanks schedule in the 2nd half of the season as tough. Well the Rays schedule the last 2 mouths of the season is not easy either. So before we go crazy about the Yanks demise and rise of the Rays, let's remember that everything can change in a hurry the next 3 mouths.
Ken, I understand not wanting to sign Sabathia long term because of health concerns and not wanting to give anyone a deal that long (I didn't want the Yankees to do the same with Santana, and he's a much better bet to stay healthy than C.C.)... but if a GM pulls the trigger on that deal and gives up two blue-chip, big-time prospects and the team does anything short of winning the World Series, wasn't it a huge failure? In that Randy Johnson deal, the Astros gave up Freddy Garcia and Carlos Guillen -- and ultimately, what did they get out of it? Johnson was unhittable for them during the season, and then got outpitched by Kevin Brown in the playoffs. Johnson basically did his job, but you can't expect one pitcher to get you to the World Series, and everyone is human -- you can write a guy's stats in stone.
If you truly have a surplus of prospects and losing some of them won't kill you, then I suppose you can go for it all and pick up Sabathia as a rental, but it seems like a pretty huge risk.
On the other hand, giving someone like Sabathia a six-year deal is suicide.
So I think it's a tougher choice than it appears to be. A GM has to be pretty secure in his position to make that deal -- nothing haunts them worse than prospects who flourish elsewhere (Omar knows that song).
Ken, I think you are right that the Yankees could very well miss the playoffs this year and I am fine with that. I have bought into The Plan and think it makes lots of sense. The opposite of The Plan is what the Mets are doing and while that could result in a World Series title this year, it also could lead to down years as far as the eye can see.
I am glad the Yankees passed on Santana and hope they do the same on Sabathia. I don’t want them to commit more than $100 million to a pitcher. I’m glad they have kept the kids and are integrating the ones that can make the jump to the majors. Some of these kids will never make it, but I am convinced that others will and will be stars for a long time.
By holding the line, Cashman has positioned the Yankees nicely, with a ton of money coming off the payroll after 2008 and again after 2009. He has retained the young arms, bats and gloves, set the stage for payroll flexibility and sent a message to agents that the days the club essentially bid against itself are over. When the new revenue streams from the new stadium kick in, the team will be sitting pretty.
Cashman has come this far and ownership needs to ride it out. BTW, this is another reason why I say Cashman returns next year. He will want to see The Plan through, which will take at least another three years.
I agree 100%, baileywalk, but I do think that you have to look at the context of the team and the market. With a team like the Cubs, which so badly wants to win it all, maybe it's worth pressing the button and giving up top chips for C.C. You've got Zambrano signed for the long term, anyway, and then you just draft above-slot guys for the next few years to make up for what you've lost.
And as you said, some teams' farm systems are deep enough now (Tampa Bay, Milwaukee) that they COULD give up a haul for C.C. and still have plenty left.
Jim, the more I ponder Cashman's future, the more confused I get. I think he's confused, too. I think part of him really wants to venture out and start fresh. But another part feels loyal to the Yankees and also enjoys what it means to be the Yankees' GM.
Jim, you and all they other Yankees fans are giving up the on the season. Just say you have giving up on the season so come October if the Yanks make the palyoffs, you and all the other Yankees fans don't just on the bandwagon.
Ken - if you could be a beat writer for any team in history, from the Black Sox and Chick Gandil to Jerry Manueal quoting Gandhi, which one would you choose?
Would reporters prefer to cover a World Series team like the 85 Royals or 87 Twins or cover the Red Sox, Yanks or Mets (financial differences aside)?
Ken, I'm on the east coast near the Kennedy Space Center but I follow the Tampa sports (which are really our market here too) on their sports talk stations which I hear (and listen to the Yankees on). The interest is starting to pick up around the area. For the first time all season, and during the 2 years I've been here, Florida Today used a story written by their partners at Ft. Myers in the paper today about last night's game, they usually do the wire service and maybe 2 paragraphs. Moreso than ever the radio callers are talking about them, usually by now it's the Bucs. Attendance at the Trop is slowly creeping up, ever since the last Red Sox series (about half the crowd was theirs last night). And over here where I am, there has been more people coming into the bars to watch baseball looking for the Rays and Marlins. We don't get Marlins' games on any local TV here because Bright House Networks doesn't carry Fox Sports Net, but we get about 55 Rays games on the ION channel, including most Yankees and Red Sox.
Also, I can't see them picking up CC. David Price has been moved up to Double A ball, and I fully expect the Rays to pull a "Joba" with him in the last part of August if he does well there.
I was thinking St. Louis could use CC even with Mulder back now and maybe Chris Carpenter coming back possibly late in the season. Do you think they have enough talent to do that trade with Cleveland? I can see the Cubs and Brewers doing it too. And any one of them could reach out for Roy Oswalt, even the Mets and Yankees.
Thanks for the 411, Sandy. The Cardinals might have enough to get C.C. I still don't see the Astros trading Oswalt. He's their ace, and they intend to be right back in contention next year.
Great question, Bob. I think I would've liked to have tried my hand at the '77 Yankees, just to see how I would've done with that kind of insanity. And thanks for coming on the live chat and stirring it up, as always...
If the Yankees make the post-season I will be in attendance for every home game Dennis. Who is giving up? Me? No! But, I am not a player and what does it matter if I think there is a good chance they miss the playoffs? You seem to think that my opinion will somehow affect the score on the field. Take a look at the roster and the trades that haven't been made; The Yankee brass made a decision last winter to use a different model for the near future. The goal is to win now, but not at the risk of losing tomorrow.
Bob, I would have loved to cover the White Sox in 1919 and 1920. Comiskey was a creep, for sure, but the players and that era fascinate me. I would have enjoyed tracking down information, following up on the rumors and watching one of the great teams in history.
Dennis, what makes you think that the Yankees are about to get hot and the Rays will soon fold? While both offenses have averaged nearly identical runs per game over the first half of the season, the Rays' pitching staff is giving up nearly half a run less. If the Yankees don't upgrade the pitching staff soon, they may very well be toast.
Before you respond by citing the Rays' lack of experience and expectations, keep in mind that Joe Torre isn't managing the Yankees anymore. Joe Girardi doesn't buy into the "pressure" argument; he doesn't hesitate to put his youngsters in high-leverage situations.
Jim: I would loved to have covered the Feller/Paige barnstorming tours pre-Jackie Robinson.
I know that there have been some good trade deadline moves with prospects for pitchers, but I keep thinking Doyle Alexander for John Smoltz, Larry Andersen for Jeff Bagwell, Randy Johnson for Garcia, Halama and Guillen, Johnson, Holman and Harris for Langston....
I wonder which actor would play Ken's role in "The Bronx is Burning"?
I think I would have liked to cover the 20s Yankees just because of Babe Ruth and what the reporters knew about him that they couldn't reveal to the general public back then.
All I'm saying is to used a term that Bill Parcells used on Tony Romo, "let's not anoint the Rays just yet". We got 3 mouths to go in the season. So right now are the Rays better than Yanks? Absolutely. But things change in a hurry. What if some the Rays pitchers like Kazmir or Shelds get hurt? You never know whats going to happen.
Jim, you seem more interest in the Yanks future than with the present team.
I love the Yankees. For many years I attended more than 50 games a year. Several years I attended more than 80. During the championship years I attended all the post-season games. I watch or listen to 99% of the games. I had some friends in the Yankee front office, who have since moved on to other jobs, one in sports and the other in the media. It doesn't matter what I am interested; present or future. The Yankees are clearly interested in the future. Thus the failure to get Santana and the lukewarm interest in C.C. Get with the program Dennis. The Plan is all about the future. The Steinbrenners have signed onto it. It is going to continue.
BTW, I think the Red Sox will finish above the Rays. I think Tampa will fall in the second half. I am so confident, I will bet a box of donuts!
Jim, let's first see what happens at the trade deadline and assess who the Sox, Rays, and, yes, the Yankees pick up. Making a bet now would be premature, although I freely acknowledge how yummy Krispy Kremes taste going down!
Tell that to Ken who went out on a limb in the cold days of March.
Yeah, well, the "J" and "R" keys are a bit too distant from one another to claim a typo on their AL East predictions! ;-) I have a similar amount of compassion for the altecockers in Boca who in 2000 cast their votes for Pat Buchanan!
Bob, back in college, when we were playing the "Who would play each other in a movie?" game, someone suggested Ray Liotta for me. Nowadays, it'd probably have to be someone who looked less tough and more Jewish.
Nowadays, it'd probably have to be someone who looked less tough and more Jewish.
---
Ben Stiller?
I missed most of the comments the last two days. But I think the Rays are like the 1984 Mets. It's funny, none of us fantasy geeks are all that surprised. They've had enough high draft picks for so many years that some are bound to be good. They stole Kazmir and Shields has grown up faster than expected but I figured he'd be pretty good.
I didn't expect them to challenge the Red Sox, and I still think the Sox will win by at least 4 games.
Ken just read your comment from yesterday. You're right. I dont mind him bashing Wright, but he should have bashed himself as well. I'm not into the fake quotes (kinda like I hate Todd Hundley talking in the third person) but had he said Wright should have made the play and I shouldn't have given up a freaking Grand Slam to a pitcher...that would have been fine. But he needed to own up to picking up his teammates.
The thing is, I see the benefit of calling out a teammate. I loved what Mussina did with Pavano last year. But I guess you cant do it if you just gave up the homerun to Felix.
Nowadays, it'd probably have to be someone who looked less tough and more Jewish.
Billy Crystal or Bud Selig?
I vote for Jake Gyllenhaal. I would have liked to see Ken and Billy mix it up a little.
Ken has a deeper voice than I thought he did. So Ben Stiller wouldn't cut it.
What about the actor from the West Wing? I think his name was Josh. I hate Googling (or in this case IMDB) but to avoid confusion I will. Here it is. He was also in Studio 60 and Billy Madison. http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0925966/
He doesn't look like Ken, but I think his tv personalities (In Studio 60 and West Wing) remind me of Ken.
Not bad, Richie. Bradley Whitford? I'll take that - or baileywalk's suggestion of Ben Stiller. Both are a lot better than Bob T.'s suggestions of Selig and Crystal.
I still like Jake Gyllenhaal (young, in shape, etc.) for the part but I have to admit, Ben Stiller would be a pretty good fit.
Just what the Yankees don't need: A-Rod back in the tabloids with Madonna. Incredible.
Jim, I get the point about the Yanks are planning on the future. We get that point. What I'm pointing out is the feeling is Yankees fans and the Media are paying more attention to the future than right now. While taking about the farm system and the players that are developing are nice, How about the Yanks think of something to help this team right now. The everyday lineup is full of players that are over 30 years old who are win now players.What do you tell Jeter or A-Rod, what we give up on the season? Come on here.
Jeter, A-Rod, Posada, Cabrera, Cano are not "win now" players. They all have many years left in them. (Posada might be a DH/IB/C for a long time. He's in very good shape. A-Rod just signed a 10 year deal, Jeter isn't retiring any time soon. Cano and Cabrera are very young.) Signing Pettitte and Mussina were stopgap moves to buy time. Rivera might last well into his 40's and he's signed for through 2010. The Yankees didn't expect to win with this team. If they do reach the playoffs they will be very happy. If they don't, no one is getting fired. Most of the pitchers are young.
Giambi 37, Damon 34, Matsui 34, and Abreu 34.Those 4 players that I metion are win now players Jim.
Bob, this one's for you. Do you think baseball should raise the pitcher's mound back from 10 inches to 15 inches considering the fact that the game is play differently now then in 1968?
No.
It's a 25 man roster. The Yankees tried to trade Matsui and would like to move Damon. Abreu won't be around next year and Giambi probably won't be.
Do explain Bob.
Again the Yanks lose another game where the offense hit like garbage. The score tonight this time is 3-2 where the Rangers scoring a run in the top of the 9th off Rivera. If you can't score more than 3 runs against the Rangers pitching staff that stinks, shame on you. This offense was suppose to carry the Yanks thought all their pitching issues. Instead this offense has been hot and cold and the pitching has been expose.
Dennis, you sound like you are giving up. Don't give up. There are still three months to play.
The old mounds were far too high. If you didn't throw over the top or a 12/6 curve, you could have control problems or hurt your arm (I did - and I threw 3/4).
That's what I thought. It really was a hill. Thanks. Guys like Gibson got off on looking down at the hitters and intimidating the heck out of them. But, it was risky business.
Unbelievable. Absolutely incredible.
You are actually quoting GLB?
Is this an inside joke?
I thought I had seen it all, except for 3 things.
Now the only 2 left are:
1. The Cubs winning the World Series.
2. Zim celebrating in a pair 1870s bartender suspenders and a rubber chicken mask, and nothing else.
p.s. I do appreciate the Chocodiles offer. Delly, are you ready? Or are you still watching Bernie Mac?
sabathia has been very durable and he's young. i don't think there's any short-term health concerns. long-term, sure.